january 2016 monthly update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/republic of... · january 2016...

11
January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances to the delegates he met at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos that Serbia would stay the reform course, regardless of early general elections. Austrian Foreign and Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz will visit Serbia in the second week of February. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic will take part in an international conference on the Syria crisis in London. Serbia’s Minister without portfolio for EU integration, Ms. Jadranka Joksimovic, said that Serbia can expect to open rule of law chapters 23 and 24 in the first half of 2016. She also said that Chapter 5, dealing with public procurement, and Chapter 20, on enterprise and industrial policy, could be opened by the end of 2016. Serbia has made substantial progress in judicial reform and in improving its justice system, Council of Europe (CoE) Director General of Human Rights and Rule of Law Philippe Boillat said. Fiscal Sector In December 2015, public debt of the Republic of Serbia changed from RSD 2,994.1bn (EUR 24.7bn) at the end of November 2015, to RSD 3,017.5bn (EUR 24.8bn) at the end of December 2015. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology) ratio was at the level of 75.5% at the end of December 2015. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is 39.8%, USD 32.9%, RSD 22.2%, SDR 3.9%, CHF 0.6% and other 0.6% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). Up to the end of December 2015, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 626.0bn (EUR 5.1bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 501.3bn (EUR 4.2bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 125.0bn (EUR 1.0bn). Vast majority of items repaid up to the end of December 2015, belong to government securities issued on domestic market RSD 427,3bn (EUR 3.5bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 364.9bn 1 (EUR 3.0bn) and interest payments were RSD 62.5bn 2 (EUR 514mln). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 96.6bn (EUR 794mln), out of which principal RSD 42.2bn (EUR 347mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 45.9bn (EUR 377mln) out of which principal RSD 38.8bn (EUR 319mln), while interest were RSD 7.1bn (EUR 59mln). In 2015, PDA received RSD 492.3bn (EUR 4.05bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic currency amounted to RSD 362.0bn (EUR 2.98bn) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 130.2bn (EUR 1.07bn). Total receiving in 2015, amounted to RSD 514.3bn (EUR 4.23bn). Serbia posted a general government deficit of RSD 148.6 billion (3.7% of GDP) in 2015. The outcome is below RSD 162.1 billion (4.1% of GDP), agreed with the IMF after successful completion of 3 rd review. Main factors that influenced budget deficit were better macro framework, fight against shadow economy and tax evasion. In January 2016, the budget surplus amounted to RSD 33.0 billion. The revenues that amounted RSD 72.9 billion, came from VAT collection (RSD 36.6 billion) and excise tax (RSD 27.7 billion). Excise duties on tobacco were major driver of better collection of excise taxes. The Government also collected RSD 12.7 billion from issuing license for 4G network. Economy Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic attended a ceremony marking the completion of the first stage of the construction of the future Belgrade Center main railway station at Prokop. Japanese multinational electronics, electrical equipment and IT Corporation Toshiba and Serbian state postal company Posta Srbije signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to develop joint projects on third markets, mainly targeting Russia and Iraq. The European Investment Fund, part of the European Investment Bank group, and Germany’s ProCredit group, including ProCredit Bank in Serbia, have signed an agreement to increase lending to innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as well as small mid-caps under InnovFin EU finance for innovators, an initiative supported by the European Commission. Serbia and South Korea have signed an agreement to remove double income taxation of the two countries’ resident individuals and businesses. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) representatives said that the lender is satisfied with its cooperation with the Serbian government, and that it is ready to take an active role in and support the development of Belgrade’s international airport. Foreign Direct Investments Italian footwear manufacturer Geox opened a factory in the south Serbian town of Vranje. The plant was opened under an investment of EUR 15.8 million and intends to hire some 1,200 people at the factory. Swedish company Ikea should open its first stores in Belgrade by the end of the year, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said after meeting with his Swedish counterpart Stefan Lofven in Davos on Thursday. IGB Automotive Comp signed agreements to buy a piece of land in the Vojvodina town of Indjija, adjacent to its existing plant there, in order to build a new facility under a EUR 4.5 million investment and create 500 jobs. 1 Repayments based on Frozen Foreign Currency Bonds are not included in this amount 2 The difference between nominal value and discounted value is included in this amount

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Page 1: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Monthly Update

Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances to the delegates he met at the World Economic Forum's Annual

Meeting in Davos that Serbia would stay the reform course, regardless of early general elections.

Austrian Foreign and Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz will visit Serbia in the second week of February.

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic will take part in an international conference on the Syria crisis in London.

Serbia’s Minister without portfolio for EU integration, Ms. Jadranka Joksimovic, said that Serbia can expect to open rule of law

chapters 23 and 24 in the first half of 2016. She also said that Chapter 5, dealing with public procurement, and Chapter 20, on

enterprise and industrial policy, could be opened by the end of 2016.

Serbia has made substantial progress in judicial reform and in improving its justice system, Council of Europe (CoE) Director General

of Human Rights and Rule of Law Philippe Boillat said.

Fiscal Sector

In December 2015, public debt of the Republic of Serbia changed from RSD 2,994.1bn (EUR 24.7bn) at the end of November 2015,

to RSD 3,017.5bn (EUR 24.8bn) at the end of December 2015. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology)

ratio was at the level of 75.5% at the end of December 2015. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in

EUR is 39.8%, USD 32.9%, RSD 22.2%, SDR 3.9%, CHF 0.6% and other 0.6% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). Up to the end of

December 2015, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD

626.0bn (EUR 5.1bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 501.3bn (EUR 4.2bn), while interest and other costs were

RSD 125.0bn (EUR 1.0bn). Vast majority of items repaid up to the end of December 2015, belong to government securities issued on

domestic market RSD 427,3bn (EUR 3.5bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 364.9bn1 (EUR 3.0bn) and interest payments

were RSD 62.5bn2 (EUR 514mln). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 96.6bn (EUR 794mln),

out of which principal RSD 42.2bn (EUR 347mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 45.9bn

(EUR 377mln) out of which principal RSD 38.8bn (EUR 319mln), while interest were RSD 7.1bn (EUR 59mln). In 2015, PDA

received RSD 492.3bn (EUR 4.05bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic currency

amounted to RSD 362.0bn (EUR 2.98bn) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 130.2bn (EUR

1.07bn). Total receiving in 2015, amounted to RSD 514.3bn (EUR 4.23bn).

Serbia posted a general government deficit of RSD 148.6 billion (3.7% of GDP) in 2015. The outcome is below RSD 162.1 billion

(4.1% of GDP), agreed with the IMF after successful completion of 3rd review. Main factors that influenced budget deficit were better

macro framework, fight against shadow economy and tax evasion.

In January 2016, the budget surplus amounted to RSD 33.0 billion. The revenues that amounted RSD 72.9 billion, came from VAT

collection (RSD 36.6 billion) and excise tax (RSD 27.7 billion). Excise duties on tobacco were major driver of better collection of

excise taxes. The Government also collected RSD 12.7 billion from issuing license for 4G network.

Economy

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic attended a ceremony marking the completion of the first stage of the construction of the

future Belgrade Center main railway station at Prokop.

Japanese multinational electronics, electrical equipment and IT Corporation Toshiba and Serbian state postal company Posta Srbije

signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to develop joint projects on third markets, mainly targeting Russia and Iraq.

The European Investment Fund, part of the European Investment Bank group, and Germany’s ProCredit group, including ProCredit

Bank in Serbia, have signed an agreement to increase lending to innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as well as

small mid-caps under InnovFin – EU finance for innovators, an initiative supported by the European Commission.

Serbia and South Korea have signed an agreement to remove double income taxation of the two countries’ resident individuals and

businesses.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) representatives said that the lender is satisfied with its

cooperation with the Serbian government, and that it is ready to take an active role in and support the development of Belgrade’s

international airport.

Foreign Direct Investments

Italian footwear manufacturer Geox opened a factory in the south Serbian town of Vranje. The plant was opened under an investment

of EUR 15.8 million and intends to hire some 1,200 people at the factory.

Swedish company Ikea should open its first stores in Belgrade by the end of the year, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said

after meeting with his Swedish counterpart Stefan Lofven in Davos on Thursday.

IGB Automotive Comp signed agreements to buy a piece of land in the Vojvodina town of Indjija, adjacent to its existing plant there,

in order to build a new facility under a EUR 4.5 million investment and create 500 jobs.

1 Repayments based on Frozen Foreign Currency Bonds are not included in this amount

2 The difference between nominal value and discounted value is included in this amount

Page 2: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia; National Bank of Serbia; Bloomberg; Ministry of Finance and Economy * Estimated value; **According to NBS methodology Foreign Debt consist of Public and Private sector debt; *** According to methodological concept of IMF and EU “BPM6” applicable from April

2014; Ɨ General Government;

Macroeconomic Data Real GDP growth %

Industrial

production

Dec15/ Dec14

in %

CPI Current acc.

Balance***

Government bonds on international

market YTM as of 31st December

Currency

units/USD

Currency

units/EUR

2013 2014 2015* Dec'15/

Nov’15

in %

Dec’15/

Dec’14

in %

Nov last12

months

mlnEUR

% of

GDP

Serbia

2017

Serbia

2018

Serbia

2020

Serbia

2021

31 Dec

2015

31 Dec

2014

31 Dec

2015

31 Dec

2014

2.6 -1.8 0.8 11.0 -0.2 1.5 -1,622.9 -4.9 3.164% 3.879% 4.169% 4.547% 111.2468 99.4641 121.6261 120.9583

* Estimated value

• According to the Serbian Statistical Office data, consumer prices fell by 0.2% in December, owing primarily to

the decline in prices of petroleum products, fresh fruit and meat. Working in the opposite direction was primarily

the rise in cigarette prices. At 1.5% in December, y -o-y inflation was below the lower bound of the target

tolerance band (4±1.5%). Low annual inflation came primarily as a result of the 2015 drop in prices of petroleum

products and unprocessed food. The 5.5% rise in administered prices was the main contributor to y -o-y inflation

(contribution to headline inflation: 1.06 pp). Y -o-y core inflation (CPI excluding food, energy, alcohol and

cigarettes) slowed down to 1.6% in December, reflecting disinflationary pressures f rom low aggregate demand and

imported inflation. Under the NBS central projection, y -o-y inflation will return within the target band in the

second half of 2016.

• The overall external trade in the Republic of Serbia for the period January - December 2015 amounted to:

- USD 31581.4 million - which was a decrease of 10.9% compared to the same period 2014;

- EUR 28421.2 million - which was an increase of 6.6% compared to the same period 2014.

The value of exports amounted to USD 13365.2 million, which was 10.0% decrease when compared to the same period last year,

while the value of imports amounted to USD 18216.2 million, which was 11.6% decrease relative to the same period last year. Decrease

of exports and imports, as well as of the overall external trade, expressed in USD, has been caused by USD currency strengthening

relative to RSD and also to EUR. Expressed in Euros, the value of exports amounted to EUR 12028.4 million, which was the increase of

7.8%, compared to the same period last year. The value of imports amounted to EUR 16392.8 million, which was 5.8% increase when

compared to the same period last year. The deficit amounted to USD 4851.0 million, which was a decrease of 15.8% in relation to the

same period last year. The deficit expressed in Euros amounted to 4364.4 million, which was an increase of 0.6% compared to the same

period last year. The export - import ratio equaled 73.4% and was higher if compared to the same period last year when it was 72.0%.

Expressed in EUR, the value of exports amounted to EUR 986.9 million, which was an increase of 3.0%, compared to the same month

last year. The value of imports amounted to EUR 1484.6 million, which was 4.9% increase when compared to the same month last year.

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

-1.8%

1.7%

-6.6%

17.3%

77.3%

Real GDP growth for 2014 (%)

YoY inflation rate December (%)

Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Q4 2014

**Foreign Debt as of December…

2014

0.8%

1.5%

-3.7%

16.7%

79.4%

*Real GDP growth for 2015 (%)

YoY inflation rate December (%)

*Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Q3 2015

**Foreign Debt as of September

2015 (% GDP)

2015

2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0% Belgrade OverNight Index Average

250.0

750.0

1,250.0

1,750.0 Belgrade Stock Exchange Indices

Belex 15 index Belex line index

Page 3: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Currency, Interest Rates and FDI

Key Policy Rates of National Bank of Serbia Current value Last change Date of last meeting Next board meeting

Key policy rate - 2w repo 4.50%

0.00% 12.01.2015 11.02.2016 Deposit facility interest rate 2.50%

Lending facility interest rate 6.50%

Source: National bank of Serbia

Source: National bank of Serbia

• According to preliminary data, at end -December NBS FX reserves amounted to EUR 10,376.5 mln, covering

251% of money supply (M1) and around seven months’ worth of imports of goods and services. This is down by

EUR 369.5 million m-o-m, or up by EUR 469.3 mln y-o-y. Major inflows came from the disbursement of loans

(EUR 86.1 mln), allocation of FX required reserves (EUR 82.5 mln net), grants (EUR 41.3 mln) – most of which

from the IPA fund (EUR 22.9 mln) and the sale of euro -denominated government securities in the domestic

financial market (EUR 33.7 mln). Other inflows amounted to EUR 50.5 mln. Significant outflows were recorded in

respect of NBS interventions in the interbank FX market and the settlement of the Republic of Serbia’s liabilities

to foreign creditors (EUR 420.0 mln). Outflows were also caused by the redemption of maturing euro -denominated

government securities and frozen FX savings bonds, and the repayment of drawings under the 2009 stand -by

arrangement with the IMF (EUR 63.2 mln). Other outflows equalled EUR 13.9 mln net. At end-December, net FX

reserves, defined as FX reserves less banks’ FX required reserves and drawings under the arrangement with the

IMF concluded in 2009, came at EUR 8,420.0 mln. Trading volumes in the IFEM reached EUR 1,000.5 mln, up by

EUR 454.7 mln from the month before. As at 31 December 2015, interbank trading volumes totalled EUR 8,077.5

mln. The dinar depreciated against the euro by 0.3% in nominal terms in December. The NBS intervened in the

IFEM by buying EUR 30 mln and sellin g EUR 300 mln in order to ease excessive daily volatility of the exchange

rate.

• The industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in December 2015, when compared to December 2014, increased by 11.0% and in

relation to 2014 average, it increased by 18.3%. Industrial production in 2015 increased by 8.2% relative to 2014.

23456789

101112

% National Bank of Serbia Interest Rates

Key policy rate - 2w repo Deposit facility interest rate

Lending facility interest rate

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

In RSD Exchange Rates

EUR/RSD USD/RSD

Page 4: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

In EUR million

Source: National bank of Serbia; *FDI value has been presented in compliance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International

Investment Position Manual, International Monetary Fund, 2009 (BPM6) from the end of 2013. Public Debt Report

Public Debt Stock and Structure as of 31st December 2015*:

EUR USD RSD GDP%

Direct Liabilities (A)

Internal Debt 9,050,939,623 9,895,390,138 1,100,830,487,650 27.6%

External Debt 13,361,891,564 14,608,552,872 1,625,154,759,588 40.7%

Direct Liabilities in Total 22,412,831,187 24,503,943,010 2,725,985,247,238 68.2%

Indirect Liabilities (B)

Internal Debt 607,557,932 664,242,943 73,894,901,783 1.8%

External Debt 1,789,602,612 1,956,572,111 217,662,386,296 5.4%

Indirect Liabilities in Total 2,397,160,544 2,620,815,053 291,557,288,079 7.3%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt (C)

Internal Debt 294,326,740 321,787,355 35,797,813,504 0.9%

External Debt 135,459,969 148,098,352 16,475,467,706 0.4%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt in Total 429,786,709 469,885,706 52,273,281,210 1.3%

Central Government Public Debt (A+B) 24,809,991,731 27,124,758,063 3,017,542,535,317 75.5%

General Government Public Debt (A+B+C) 25,239,778,440 27,594,643,770 3,069,815,816,528 76.8%

In EUR million

Date Internal Debt External Debt Monthly Change of

Public Debt Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities

31/01/2015 -116.0 0.9 557.8 14.3 457.1

28/02/2015 450.5 -18.8 80.6 6.5 518.8

31/03/2015 176.0 -1.7 275.6 5.4 455.3

30/04/2015 -26.2 -9.0 -125.6 -1.9 -162.8

31/05/2015 -121.4 -0.5 169.0 13.4 60.5

30/06/2015 -173.4 23.2 -148.6 -16.3 -315.1

31/07/2015 50.7 -12.5 225.9 -12.6 251.4

31/08/2015 -26.9 -13.9 -139.6 -9.0 -189.4

30/09/2015 248.1 -15.5 -1.1 -5.6 225.9

31/10/2015 125.6 -12.9 192.2 -42.0 262.9

30/11/2015 125.6 -12.9 194.1 -42.0 264.8

31/12/2015 318.1 -30.1 -155.9 -16.7 115.5

*Preliminary Data

2,486 2,068 1,133 3,320

753

1,298 1,236

1,571

7.4% 6.7%

3.8%

9.9%

2.4%

3.8% 3.7% 4.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* Jan-Nov

2015

Foreign Direct Investment in Serbia in period 2008 - November 2015

FDI (net), EUR million FDI (net), %GDP

DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC DEBT

Page 5: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

In EUR million

Source: Public Debt Administration

INTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS EXTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS

Source: Public Debt Administration

Source: Public Debt Administration

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

24,500

25,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000In

EU

R m

illi

on

Public Debt Stock and Structure

Internal debt - direct liabilities Internal debt - indirect liabilitiesExternal debt - direct liabilities External debt - indirect liabilitiesCentral Government Public Debt (right axis)

38.9%

37.5%

38.0%

38.5%

39.0%

39.5%

Internal public debt/total public debt ratio

61.1%

59.0%

59.5%

60.0%

60.5%

61.0%

61.5%

62.0%

62.5%External public debt/total public debt ratio

9,051

608

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

In E

UR

mil

lio

n

Internal Public Debt Structure

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

13,362

1,790 1,775

1,800

1,825

1,850

1,875

1,900

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

In E

UR

mil

liio

n

External Public Debt Structure

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

Page 6: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Source: Public Debt Administration

Government Securities DOMESTIC MARKET OVERVIEW

Source: Public Debt Administration

EUROBOND OVERVIEW

56.9%

41.3%

1.7%

Internal Debt Currency Structure as

of 31 December, 2015

RSD EUR USD

38.9%

52.8%

1.1%

6.4% 0.9%

External public debt currency structure as

of 31 December, 2015

EUR USD CHF SDR Other

2.94% 3.25%

4.09%

4.95%

6.59%

6.50%

10.75%

12.99%

2.5%

4.5%

6.5%

8.5%

10.5%

12.5%

14.5%

3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y

Last Primary Auction Accepted Rate

2.97%

4.27% 6.07%

8.12%

9.90% 10.60% 12.03%

12.99%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y

Average Accepted Rates at Primary Auction

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Price/Yield

Date Closing price

YTM Monthly price change %

Monthly yield change %

31/12/15 113.49 4.547 -0.9% 3.3%

30/11/15 114.48 4.402 -0.2% 0.0%

31/10/15 114.67 4.400 2.0% -9.0%

30/09/15 112.44 4.834 -0.5% 1.6%

31/08/15 113.00 4.758 0.1% -1.1%

31/07/15 112.84 4.811 0.4% -2.2%

30/06/15 112.38 4.919 -2.5% 10.3%

31/05/15 115.22 4.460 -0.2% 0.1%

30/04/15 115.41 4.455 -0.1% -0.3%

31/03/15 115.53 4.467 -1.5% 6.3%

28/02/15 117.34 4.201 2.2% -9.5%

31/01/15 114.77 4.643 2.1% -8.0%

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Tap

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 28.09.2021

Coupon: 7.25% semi-annual

*Size: USD 2.0bn

**Re-offer yield: 6.625%

Re-offer price: 104.179

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 497.0 bps

Announcement date: 27.09.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

*Primary auction USD 1,0bn 21.09.2011.; Tap Issuance 27.09.2012. USD

1,0bn. **Tap Issuance re-offer yield.

Page 7: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 21.11.2017

Coupon: 5.250% semi-annual

Size: USD 750.0mln

Re-offer yield: 5.450%

Re-offer price: 99.135

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 482.5 bps

Announcement date: 14.11.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Source: Bloomberg

4.00

4.40

4.80

5.20

5.60

6.00

6.40

6.80

7.20

7.60

8.00

96 $

98 $

100 $

102 $

104 $

106 $

108 $

110 $

112 $

114 $

116 $

118 $

120 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2021

Closing price YTM

170 bps

200 bps

230 bps

260 bps

290 bps

320 bps

350 bps

380 bps

410 bps

440 bps

470 bps

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 6Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017 - Price/Yield

Date Closing price

YTM Monthly price change %

Monthly yield change %

31/12/15 103.77 3.164 -0.4% 4.8%

30/11/15 104.23 3.019 -0.2% 1.5%

31/10/15 104.49 2.973 0.7% -12.8%

30/09/15 103.76 3.408 -0.2% 0.3%

31/08/15 103.92 3.397 0.1% -3.4%

31/07/15 103.79 3.515 0.1% -3.2%

30/06/15 103.66 3.631 -0.3% 2.0%

31/05/15 103.96 3.561 0.3% -5.1%

30/04/15 103.60 3.753 -0.4% 3.2%

31/03/15 104.02 3.637 -0.9% 9.4%

28/02/15 104.96 3.325 1.2% -13.3%

31/01/15 103.72 3.834 1.0% -10.0%

Page 8: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Source: Bloomberg

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020 - Price/Yield

Date Closing

price

YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/12/15 102.65 4.169 -0.6% 3.6%

30/11/15 103.27 4.026 -0.2% 0.8%

31/10/15 103.46 3.993 2.0% -11.5%

30/09/15 101.42 4.513 0.0% -0.1%

31/08/15 101.43 4.518 0.1% -0.6%

31/07/15 101.34 4.545 0.0% -0.3%

30/06/15 101.30 4.560 -1.7% 9.8%

31/05/15 103.07 4.153 0.1% -1.0%

30/04/15 102.92 4.196 -0.1% 0.1%

31/03/15 102.99 4.192 -1.5% 8.4%

28/02/15 104.52 3.867 1.9% -10.3%

31/01/15 102.54 4.311 2.3% -10.8%

2.80

3.10

3.40

3.70

4.00

4.30

4.60

4.90

5.20

5.50

5.80

6.10

6.40

95.0 $

96.0 $

97.0 $

98.0 $

99.0 $

100.0 $

101.0 $

102.0 $

103.0 $

104.0 $

105.0 $

106.0 $

107.0 $

108.0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2017

Closing price YTM

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

460 bps

0.0

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4.0

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5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 2Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 25.02.2020

Coupon: 4.875% semi-annual

Size: USD 1.5bn

Re-offer yield: 5.150%

Re-offer price: 98.401

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 378.4 bps

Announcement date: 14.02.2013

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Page 9: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Source: Bloomberg

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018 - Price/Yield

Date Closing price

YTM Monthly price change %

Monthly yield change %

31/12/15 105.44 3.879 -0.8% 6.0%

30/11/15 106.25 3.660 -0.1% -0.4%

31/10/15 106.35 3.675 1.2% -11.1%

30/09/15 105.11 4.135 -0.5% 3.1%

31/08/15 105.62 4.012 0.1% -2.1%

31/07/15 105.48 4.096 -0.1% -0.6%

30/06/15 105.54 4.120 -0.7% 4.7%

31/05/15 106.30 3.934 0.3% -3.2%

30/04/15 105.98 4.063 -0.2% 0.6%

31/03/15 106.20 4.039 -1.7% 13.2%

28/02/15 108.03 3.568 1.9% -14.2%

31/01/15 106.02 4.157 1.4% -9.1%

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

89.0 $

91.0 $

93.0 $

95.0 $

97.0 $

99.0 $

101.0 $

103.0 $

105.0 $

107.0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2020

Closing price YTM

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

460 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5In

%

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 5Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch); B1(Moody’s)

Maturity: 03.12.2018

Coupon: 5.875 % semi-annual

Size: USD 1.0bn

Re-offer yield: 6.125%

Re-offer price: 98.937

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 476.5 bps

Announcement date: 21.11.2013

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Page 10: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Spread to Benchmark Spread to US Dollar Swap Interest rate

Source: Bloomberg

Amortizing bond - London Club 2024

Date Closing price YTM Monthly price change % Monthly yield change %

10/1/2004 11/1/2024 1,080,000,000 972,000,190 6.75%

Closing price and YTM

Date Closing price YTM Monthly price change % Monthly yield change %

30/11/15 102.23 6.414 -0.2% 0.3%

30/11/15 102.39 6.394 0.2% -0.4%

31/10/15 102.21 6.422 0.1% -0.4%

30/09/15 102.06 6.446 0.3% -0.7%

31/08/15 101.75 6.492 0.0% 0.0%

31/07/15 101.78 6.489 -0.2% 0.5%

30/06/15 102.01 6.459 -0.2% 0.5%

31/05/15 102.22 6.430 0.1% -0.3%

30/04/15 102.12 6.448 -0.1% 0.3%

31/03/15 102.25 6.431 -0.2% 0.5%

28/02/15 102.49 6.398 0.6% -1.4%

31/01/15 101.85 6.488 0.7% -1.5%

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

96.0 $

98.0 $

100.0 $

102.0 $

104.0 $

106.0 $

108.0 $

110.0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2018

Closing price YTM

180 bps

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 3Y

Page 11: January 2016 Monthly Update - ujd.gov.rs update for investors/2016/Republic of... · January 2016 Monthly Update Politics Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gave firm assurances

January 2016

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Source: Bloomberg

6.30

6.40

6.50

6.60

6.70

6.80

6.90

7.00

7.10

7.20

7.30

7.40

7.50

94.0 $

95.0 $

96.0 $

97.0 $

98.0 $

99.0 $

100.0 $

101.0 $

102.0 $

103.0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph Amortizing Bond - Serbia London Club 2024

Closing price YTM

375 bps

400 bps

425 bps

450 bps

475 bps

500 bps

525 bps

550 bps

575 bps

600 bps

625 bps

1.0

1.5

2.0

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3.0

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4.0

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7.0

7.5

8.0

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 9Y