module 2 educator’s guide investigation 3 - nasa · pdf file1 who will feed the world?...

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Who will feed theworld?Investigation OverviewInvestigation 3 focuses on meetingthe food needs of an increasing globalpopulation. Students work in groups toinvestigate population growth and agriculturalproduction in major world regions and considerhow developments in technology and monitoring systems will addressthese concerns in the future. The investigation concludes with aninvestment challenge in Mozambique. Students work in groups to makerecommendations for improving agricultural production in this country.

Time required: Four to eight 45-minute sessions (as follows):Introduction and Part 1: One or two sessionsPart 2: One or two sessionsPart 3: One sessionPart 4: One or two sessions

MaterialsA copy of Investigation Briefing and Log for each student. The key to the

Log is included in this Educator’s Guide.Computer with a CD-ROM drive. The Mission Geography CD contains

color graphics needed for this activity.World atlasesOptional: Access to the Internet, which offers opportunities for extending

this activity.

Content PreviewInvestigating food production involves a number of topics. First, anincreasing global population will continue to put pressure on worldregions to increase agricultural production to meet demand. Populationgrowth is centered in the developing world regions including Asia andOceania, Latin America and the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa.Measuring agricultural production in relation to population growth putssub-Saharan Africa in the most tenuous position, as per capita (perperson) food production declined 12 percent between 1965 and 1985.Increasing agricultural production will involve a variety of techniquesincluding satellite measurements of vegetation growth. Additionally,investing in certain types of crops will play a key role in meeting humandemand.

Geography Standards

Standard 1: The World inSpatial Terms

How to use maps and other geo-graphic representations, tools, andtechnologies to acquire, process,and report information

• Produce and interpret maps and othergraphic representations to solvegeographic problems.

Standard 5: Places and RegionsThat people create regions tointerpret Earth’s complexity

• Use regions to analyze geographicissues and answer geographicquestions.

Standard 9: Human SystemsThe characteristics, distribution, andmigration of human populations onEarth’s surface

• Predict trends in spatial distribution ofpopulation on Earth, and analyzepopulation issues and propose policiesto address such issues.

Standard 14: Environment andSociety

How human actions modify thephysical environment

• Evaluate the ways in which technologyhas expanded the human capacity tomodify the physical environment.

Standard 18: Uses ofGeography

How to apply geography to interpretthe present and plan for the future

• Use geography knowledge and skills toanalyze problems and make decisions

within a spatial context.

Geography SkillsSkill Set 4: Analyzing GeographicInformation

• Make inferences and draw conclusionsfrom maps and other geographicrepresentations.

• Use the processes of analysis,synthesis, evaluation, and explanationto interpret geographic information.

Module 2 Educator’s Guide Investigation 3

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Classroom ProceduresBeginning the Investigation1. Hand out a Briefing and Log to each student and

have them read the Background section. Draw outdiscussion with such questions as:Do you think hunger and famine will be eliminated

during your lifetime? Why or why not?What do you think Secretary Glickman meant by

his statement about an “unstable food supply”?What do you see as the difference between

increasing food production and increasing foodavailability?

What is meant by “agricultural sustainability?” Whydo you think this is an important idea?

2. Tell students that they will work in regional teams inthe first part of this activity and that they willconclude by making group investment decisions forstimulating agricultural production in Mozambique.

Developing the Investigation3. Have students read the Objectives and take any

questions they may have.

4. Leaf through the materials with students and pointout the underlined Log questions to be answeredon the Investigation Log at the end of the materi-als. The key to the Log is found at the end of thisEducator’s Guide. Give students a schedule forcompleting the Log.

5. Direct attention to the Scenario: Planning to feedworld regions section. Divide the class into sixteams roughly equal in size. Each team is torepresent a major world region. The six worldregions are listed in Table 2. Emphasize theimportance of studying and discussing the materi-als as a team and of working on team answers tothe Log questions.

Alternative: If you prefer smaller teams, you maywish to form two teams for each region. To havestudents appreciate the differences in populationbetween these regions, you might ask them tocompute the proportional representation of theteams using the “Percentage of World Population”column in Table 1. For example, 55 percent of thestudents would represent Region 4, and 4 percentwould represent Region 3. You might even usethese proportions to form teams, but that wouldgive you teams of very uneven sizes.

6. Have teams meet to locate their world region on amap and to identify the countries that comprisetheir region. Have teams share this informationwith the entire class.

7. Set students working through the materials,beginning with Part 1: How do the populations ofworld regions compare? Direct attention to Table1, which marks each year the global populationincreased by 1 billion. Have students add acolumn to Table 1 by calculating the number ofyears between the next billion increment. Therewill be eight entries:

Growth from:1 to 2 billion 130 years2 to 3 billion 30 years3 to 4 billion 15 years4 to 5 billion 12 years5 to 6 billion 12 years6 to 7 billion 13 years7 to 8 billion 14 years8 to 9 billion 17 years

Assist students in graphing this table at Question 1on the Log.

8. After the regional teams have worked through Part3: What is the need for increasing agriculturalproduction?, they should begin on Part 4: Invest-ing in Mozambique. Be sure students understandthat Part 3 demonstrated that of all the major worldregions, sub-Saharan Africa will have the hardesttime producing enough food to meet demand. As aresult, Part 4 will focus on Mozambique as a casestudy to investigate how agricultural production canbe increased.

Students can stay in their assigned groups, butthey are no longer representing a major worldregion. Instead, they should pretend to be part of aFAO team investigating how to increase foodproduction in Mozambique. The first section willask them to estimate the cropland use intensity(CUI) value for 1973, 1992, and 1995 using Figures8, 9 and 10. Students should make estimationsbased on the percentages given in the figures. It isnot critical that they get the exact answers; rather,they should understand that the CUI is currentlyvery low for Mozambique.


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Students should continue to work in their groupsand have an opportunity to complete their majortask: making investment decisions for the agricul-tural sector. Students are given the task of invest-ing $40 million in a variety of agriculture and fisherysectors to improve production in the country to90,000,000 tonnes. Investments must be made inmultiples of $5 million, and students can invest astheir team desires, but they must support theirdecisions on Log Question 9. Students will needsome guidance with this part of the investigation asTable 5 provides some steering information on thevalue of these investments as either a source ofconsumption or foreign exchange. Table 5 pre-sents these as multipliers, which students canutilize to make investment decisions. They shouldmultiply their investment by the value of the mul-tiple, and then multiply this again by the productionincrease in tonnes to determine the investmentoutcome. Remind students that they want to investfor both consumption and foreign exchange. Pointout that the foreign exchange earned by exportingcrops can be used for consumption or to buy foodon the international market. Students should alsobe encouraged to diversify in order to assist inprotecting against harmful pests or bad weatherthat might destroy a single crop.

9. Have teams report their investment recommenda-tions and reasons to the whole class, and havethe class discuss, classify, and evaluate theserecommendations according to agreed uponcriteria, such as importance, practicality, agree-ment with facts, etc.

Concluding the Investigation10. Debrief the investigation by discussing the Log

questions. You may wish to debrief the activityeven further by referring to the Objectives listed atthe beginning of the Briefing.

EvaluationEvaluate the Logs using the answers in this Educator’sGuide. You may wish to provide your own guidelinesfor the team investment reports, or you may simplyask for a numbered list of recommendations.

Log1. The graph of Table 1 should look like the following:

This is a classic J-curve of population growth withvery little growth, then growth increasing at greaterand greater rates (reflecting exponential growth)shown by a steeply rising curve, and finally, growthbeginning to slow as seen in the flattening of thecurve when the population is very large.

2. Using Figure 2, compare and contrast the diet inyour region with the other regions.This will depend on the student’s choices of whichfoodstuffs to emphasize. Use Figure 2 to guideyour assessment of their answers.

3. How do you explain these differences in diets?Diets around the world vary a great deal due to theavailability of certain foodstuffs. For example,people in the developed world can afford to eatlivestock products and fats more regularly thanpeople in developing countries. Food productionalso contributes to variation in diets, as well asdifferences in food preferences.

4. Compare and contrast the dietary energy supplylevels in your region with the other regions. Spe-cifically, name the countries (and their levels) inyour region that have the highest and the lowestdietary energy supplies, and compare and contrastthese with other countries with very high and verylow levels.As with Question 2, this answer depends on thestudents’ choices of which countries in their regionto emphasize. Use Figure 3 to guide your assess-ment of their answers.


987654321P

opula

tion (

in b

illio

ns)

1800 1900 20501850 1950 2000

4

5. With your team, brainstorm a list of reasons thatmight account for the variations in dietary energysupply levels between regions and countries andwithin countries.• Varying capacities to purchase food (people in

richer countries can afford more livestockproducts and fats, for example)

• Different availability of foods among countries• Diets of richer countries usually more balanced

nutritionally and also contain a greater propor-tion of protein, particularly of animal origin, thanthose of the poor countries

• Developing countries’ diets characterized by ahigher proportion of cereals

• Significant variations in diet among countriesreflecting differing production capabilities,access to food types, and tastes even forcountries at similar income levels

6. According to Figure 6, which regions in Africa have“very poor vegetation”? Why do you think this is so?Northern Africa has very poor (or sparse) vegeta-tion because of the climate and physical land-scape. The Sahara Desert and the Sahel charac-terize this region, which has little to no rainfall on aregular basis. In the southern portion of Africa, theKalahari and other deserts limit the amount ofvegetation growth.

7. According to Figure 6, which regions in Africa haveshown “improvement” in their vegetation growth?There are a few locations that have shown im-provement in vegetation growth. Southern Africa,parts of South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia,have demonstrated improvement. Additionally,there has been improvement in parts of centralAfrica and in western Africa near the Ivory Coast.

8. Estimate the cropland use intensity (CUI) for 1973,1992, and 1995. How does this information assistyour group in understanding agricultural productionin Mozambique?The CUI maps (Figures 8-10) showed that 22 per-cent of the land was cropped before independence(1973). The CUI dropped to 5 percent by the endof the civil war in 1992 and rebounded to 17percent by 1995. This information is helpful for anumber of reasons. First, it allows agriculturalagencies to identify the current state of agriculturalintensity in the country. All of these estimates arevery low, indicating that greater investment in theagricultural sector is needed. Secondly, the CUIallows for an assessment of where agriculture iscurrently practiced within the country. This isextremely useful for determining which locationsrequire future investments.

9. Put your group investment recommendations forthe $40 million in the table, and explain why youare investing this way.Students should complete the table in the Log toget an investment return of 90,000,000 tonnes orhigher, which was their investment challenge.

The investment decision that results in the highestproduction value is investing all $40 million intomaize or rice (resulting in a return of 120,000,000tonnes of maize or rice). This is not the most idealinvestment, however, because it forces the countryto rely on only one crop. This could be disastrous ifcertain types of weather or pests destroy the crop.Students should try to balance investments inmaize with rice and fishery products that are avaluable source of foreign exchange. In evaluatingtheir answers, however, it is more important thatstudents support their decisions. Choosing toinvest in crops, rice and maize for example, isimportant for food security. On the other hand,students may choose to invest in crops that are asource of foreign exchange for the country. In thiscase, investing in nuts or fisheries would be logical.


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BackgroundMore than one billion of today’s six billion peoplesuffer from hunger. How many will be hungry whenthe world’s population doubles, as it is expected todo by the end of the 21st century? Or is it possiblethat hunger and famine will be eliminated in thiscentury? Whether or not there will be enough foodis a matter of speculation, but we can be certainthat feeding the world will be a huge challenge. Itwill affect all regions of the world and all economic,political, social, and environmental systems. Asformer U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickmansaid, “An unstable food supply is the greatest threatto our national security” (Smith 2000:14). Expertsbelieve that it is crucial that we increase both foodproduction and food availability to needy popula-tions. If this can be done, we will also need toachieve agricultural sustainability—that is, toprotect the environment against degradation fromincreased agricultural production. In this activity,you will investigate global food production andhunger. Additionally, you will examine sub-SaharanAfrica to consider the ways that famine might bealleviated in the future.

ObjectivesIn this investigation, you will• compare population growth and nutritional levels

of world regions,• consider the demands of increasing global

population upon food production,• learn that food security requires both a food

supply and access to that supply,• consider the role of industrial agriculture in

feeding the developing world,• examine ways that technology can help to

prevent famines, and• make investment decisions to stimulate agricul-

tural production in sub-Saharan Africa.

Scenario: Planning to feed world regionsImagine that you are a geographer working for theUnited Nations Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO). You have recently been assigned to a teamof scientists investigating food and populationissues in a major world region. Use Parts 1 and 2of this investigation to help you assess, and reportto the entire group, the status of population andfood production in your region.

Module 2, Investigation 3: BriefingWho will feed the world?

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Part 1. How do the populations of worldregions compare?

Understanding world hunger requires an analysisof the changing global population. To appreciatehow the global population has changed, look atTable 1, which lists the years when the world’spopulation reached an additional billion.

As you work through this investigation, you shouldanswer the underlined questions on the Investiga-tion Log. For Question 1, make a line graph of theworld’s population from 1800 to 2043.

Nearly all of the population increase in the 21stcentury will occur in the poorer, developing regionsof the world, specifically Africa, Asia (exceptJapan), Latin America and the Caribbean, andOceania. By comparison, populations in theindustrialized, developed countries will remainrelatively constant (Figure 1).

Table 1: Years when world populationreached an additional billion

Population

1 billion2 billion3 billion4 billion5 billion6 billion7 billion (estimate)8 billion (estimate)9 billion (estimate)

Year

180019301960197519871999201220262043

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1998; Population Refer-ence Bureau, Inc., 1999

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The current contributions toworld population by rich andpoor regions can be seen inTable 2. Use the table to assessthe population growth in yourregion.

Part 2. How do the dietsof world regions com-pare?

Food is divided into many types,including animal oils and fats,milk and eggs, sugars, roots andtubers, and cereals. Eachregion has a different proportionof types of food in its diet (Figure2). For example, Figure 2shows that, in Latin America andthe Caribbean, cereals make up40 percent of the diet, and inEast and Southeast Asia, 60percent of the diet.


Table 2: Regional contribution to world populationand world population increase in 1998

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1998

RegionPercentage

of WorldPopulation

PercentageContribution to

World PopulationIncrease

1.Eastern Europe andNewly IndependentStates

2.Sub-Saharan Africa

3.Near East and NorthAfrica

4.Asia and Oceania

5.Latin America andthe Caribbean

6.IndustrializedCountries (U.S.,Canada, WesternEurope, and Japan)

9

10

4

55

10

1

20

9

57

10

212

Figure 1: World popu-lation growth, 1750-2150 (population after1999 is estimated)

Sources: The World of Child 6Billion. 1999. Washington, D.C.:Population Reference Bureau andNational Peace Corps Association.http://www.prb.org and http://www.rpcv.org

Pop

ula

tion in b

illio

ns

73

Use Figure 2 to determine whattypes of foods contribute to dietin your world region. (In readingFigure 2, teams assigned toRegion 1 should use column C;Region 4 uses columns G and H;and Region 6 uses column B.)

You can use the information fromthe Log questions to help yourteam develop its recommenda-tions. Answer Log Questions 2and 3.

About 840 million people in thedeveloping world suffer frommalnutrition (Table 3). With lessthan 2,000 calories per personper day on average, about15 percent of Earth’s people livea life of permanent or intermittenthunger (Conway 2000). Malnu-trition is particularly devastating

Figure 2: Share of food groups by region and country

Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 1998,The State of Food and Agriculture 1998: FAO Agriculture Series No. 31,http://www.fao.org/docrep/w9500e/w9500e03.gif

Table 3: Malnutrition in developing regions in 1998

Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1998

RegionNumber of

MalnourishedPeople

(in millions)

Percentageof PopulationMalnourished

2. Sub-Saharan Africa

3. Near East andNorth Africa

4. Asia and Oceania

5. Latin America andthe Caribbean

215

37

524

65

43

12

18

15


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to the young and elderly. Malnutrition weakens thebody’s immune system to the point that commonchildhood ailments, such as measles and diarrhea,are often fatal. Each day, 19,000 children die as aresult of malnutrition and related illnesses (Brown1999; World Food Summit 1996).

In contrast with developing regions, in some of thecountries in Region 1 (Eastern Europe and NewlyIndependent States) and Region 6 (the industrial-ized countries—Japan, U.S., Canada, and WesternEurope), over half of all adults are medically over-weight (Gardner and Halweil 2000). This conditionoccurs when food energy intake exceeds energy

use, which contributes to the risk of death from highblood pressure, coronary heart disease, stroke,diabetes, and various forms of cancer. As can beseen from the global distribution of dietary energysupply levels (Figure 3), the people in some regionsare overfed and in others they are underfed.

Figure 3 is a map of the countries of the world andtheir average per person dietary energy supply,measured in kilocalories (kcal) per day. Use Figure 3to determine the dietary energy supply levels in yourworld region, and answer Log questions 4 and 5.

Figure 3: Dietary energy supply levels bycountry in 1998

Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 1998,The State of Food and Agriculture 1998: FAO Agriculture SeriesNo. 31, http://www.fao.org/docrep/w9500e/w9500e02.gif


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Part 3. What is the need forincreasing agriculturalproduction?

Throughout the 1970s, the world watched inhorror as numerous African countries sufferedthrough droughts that led to massive famines.The images sent around the world (Figure 4,for example) only emphasized the belief thatthere wasn’t enough food to feed the increas-ing global population. Although scientistshave argued that famines are often caused bypeoples’ lack of access to food (access isblocked, for example, by low incomes, politicalconflicts, and wars), as opposed to a short-age of food (Sen 1981), most agree that theamount of food must continue to increase inthe future to meet the demands of increasingpopulations.

Following large increases in global agriculturalproduction from the Green Revolution, we still needto increase the amount of food produced. In fact,yields for cereals in the developing world decreasedin the period 1985-94, following the peak GreenRevolution yields (Figure 5). This recent decreasein rice, wheat, and maize yields is an even largerproblem when population growth is considered.

Agricultural systems will be challenged in thefuture, as rising population levels will put pressure

on their capacity to meet human demand. Thesepressures will be felt most where population growthis highest and incomes are lowest. This formulapoints to Africa, especially the sub-Saharan region,as the area with the greatest problem. A rapidlygrowing population in Africa will demand increasesin agricultural output. Between 1965 and 1985,total food production grew in sub-Saharan Africa by54 percent, but per capita food production declinedby 12 percent (Turner et al. 1996).

You may have learned from the Industrial Agricul-ture investigation in this module that at the begin-

ning of the 20th century, eachAmerican farmer producedenough food to feed seven otherpeople in the United States andabroad, but at the beginning ofthe 21st century, a U.S. farmerfeeds 96 people (Brown 1999).This staggering fact resulted fromthe use of new technologies forplanting, cultivation, and harvest-ing; irrigation and chemicalfertilizers; and plant breeding andimprovements, especially inwheat, rice, and corn. Wheat andrice are consumed largely byhumans, but most of the world’scorn harvest is fed to livestockand poultry (Brown 1999).


Figure 4: Refugee camp in Africa

Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1998,http://www.fao.org

Figure 5: Cereal yields in developing countries from1965-1994Source: Conway 2000: 13

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These technologies have produced enormous grainsurpluses, especially in the United States, Canada,Europe, Australia, and Argentina. Many developingcountries have been forced to buy these surplusesto help feed their rapidly growing populations. Theyoften pay for these food grains with nonfood cashcrops they grow such as coffee, tea, sugar, andcotton. Solutions to feeding the rapidly growingpopulations in the developing world must considerindustrial agriculture, along with other strategies, toincrease agricultural production.

Another part of the solution may involve the use ofnew technologies to reduce the chance of faminesbrought on by environmental fluctuations. Forexample, NASA satellite data, which are used tostudy the expansion and contraction of the desertsand semiarid lands of Africa, are the principalsource for providing early warning of potentialfamines around the African continent.

Since 1987, scientists at NASA’s Goddard SpaceFlight Center (GSFC) in Greenbelt, Maryland, andthe U.S. Agency for International Development(USAID) have been cooperating on a project toprovide data to USAID’s Famine Early WarningSystem (FEWS). They seek to understand naturalvariations of climate that relate to desert bound-aries and adjacent semiarid areas, and to deter-mine any changes in climate between 1980 and2000 (Dunbar and Kenitzer 1993).

As Dr. Compton J. Tucker, a scientist in the Labo-ratory for Terrestrial Physics at Goddard, states:

The Agency for International Development of ourState Department came to us after seeing someof our publications on remote sensing of theSahel of Africa and indicated it was interested instudying the famine stricken regions in Africa.Since we use satellites to look at vegetation inthese regions, we can obtain data on countriesthat historically have been affected by famineand do so very close to real time.

Using daily data from the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA) -7, -9 and -11meteorological satellites, scientists measure thedensity of green vegetation in a specific regionevery 10 days. As Tucker states:

Since 1981, we have compiled a time series ofplant-growth histories for the entire continent ofAfrica, and we use it to assess current and futurevegetation growth. This information is used byUSAID’s FEWS to determine where droughts areoccurring, their severity, and how widespread

they are.

USAID’s FEWS augments the satellite data withmeteorological information and socioeconomicinformation, where available, to determine thelocation and severity of drought in Africa, Tuckersaid. When drought conditions are detected, aFEWS team can begin coordinating relief efforts, ifrequired. For example, changes in vegetation canindicate oncoming drought. Figure 6 shows aseries of satellite vegetation models for the Africancontinent. The Normalized Difference VegetationIndex (NDVI) is a measure of the greenness of thevegetation, which is used to generate assessmentsand make predictions. The first image is the NDVItaken during January 1-10, 2000. The secondimage (vs Previous) is a comparison of the firstimage to previous years. Finally, the third image(vs Average) is a comparison of the first image tothe average NDVI for the continent.

NASA research and USAID’s FEWS are examplesof how improvements in technology will contributeto agricultural productivity in various regions of theworld. At the very least, having more data onvegetation growth and precipitation patterns shouldassist in reducing the chance of famines on theAfrican continent.

Answer Questions 6 and 7 on the Log.


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Part 4. Scenario: Investing inMozambique

Since sub-Saharan Africa faces the greatestchallenge for increasing agricultural production tomeet a growing population, this section addressesa specific sub-Saharan country. Continue toimagine that you are a geographer working for theUnited Nations Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO). Your team has been given the task ofinvesting $40 million to stimulate food production inMozambique, one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Mozambique is located in southernAfrica and has been significantly affected bycolonialism and war. Mozambique was a colony ofPortugal until 1975, when an 11-year war ofindependence ended with the establishment of anindependent, Marxist government. But a 17-yearcivil war started soon after independence, with aninternal military uprising that was supported bysome foreign governments.

The civil war affected the people of Mozambiqueseverely, especially in rural areas. Hundreds ofthousands of people were killed. Over a millionpeople fled the country, especially to Malawi, andmore than a million others were displaced withinMozambique (Sill 1992). Many rural peoplemigrated to the cities and the coast where thegovernment maintained control. The country wentinto severe economic decline and agriculture wasdisrupted, so the country could not feed itself. Bythe late 1980s, Mozambique had one of the lowestper-capita caloric intakes in the world (Sill 1992).

USAID and FEWS have been active in Mozambiquefor a number of decades. As you learned earlier,FEWS utilizes satellite images to determine thehealth of vegetation in certain areas. Figure 7shows maps of the NDVI for southeastern Africacomparing the average with conditions in 1991.


Figure 6: Satellite vegetation analysis for Africa

Source: USAID Famine Early Warning System, 1999, http://www.info.usaid.gov/fews/imagery/sat_afr.html

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In 1995, three years after the warended, USAID asked the U.S. Geologi-cal Survey (USGS) to document themigration of rural Mozambicans duringthe civil war using LANDSAT and othersatellite data. In areas of subsistenceagriculture, cropland use intensity(CUI) approximates population density.CUI can also be used to connectagricultural statistics with specificgeographic locations. For example, ifSofala Province reports a 50 percentrise in planted grains, CUI can identifywhere in the province the grains wereplanted.

Utilizing the CUI can assist your groupin deciding how to invest inMozambique because you can assessthe current state of agriculture in thecountry. Using the process outlinedabove, a small part of Mozambiquewas mapped five different times,representing various stages in the civilwar. The CUI for 1973 is representedas Figure 8 below.

Figure 8: Estimated CUI in 1973

Source: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/earthshots/slow/Mozambique/Mozambique


Figure 7: NDVI maps of southeastern Africa,including Mozambique

Source: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/earthshots/slow/Mozambique/MozambiqueNote: This is animated at the above site, so you can observe the changes overthe course of one year.

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The satellite images of the CUI in 1992 and 1995are represented as Figures 9 and 10.

Begin your task of investing in Mozambique byestimating the CUI from 1973 to 1995. AnswerQuestion 8 on the Log.


Figure 9: CUI in 1992

Source: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/earthshots/

slow/Mozambique/Mozambique

Figure 10: CUI in1995

Source: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/earthshots/slow/Mozambique/Mozambique

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Obviously, there is still a pressing need to increaseagricultural output in Mozambique. Your teamneeds to determine how to invest the $40 million inthe agricultural sector. In 1996, Mozambique had20 million hectares of arable land, of which 10 per-cent was cultivated (Turner 1999).

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10

Table 4 is a breakdown of the major products in theagricultural sector. The fishery sector is alsoincluded, since this sector plays a key role inmeeting food needs in the country.

Your challenge is to invest $40 million and increasethe total food production to 90,000,000 tonnes.You can invest the money however you want inallotments of $5 million. Include an explanation foryour investment decisions.

As you invest, think about which crops are betterfor consumption and which crops are a bettersource of foreign exchange (money a countrymakes from its exports). Remember that themoney a country earns from exporting crops canbe used to invest in crops for consumption or tobuy food on the international market. Table 5provides some information on the value of thesecrops as a source of domestic consumption and asan export product for foreign exchange. Themultiples indicate the total return that an invest-ment in a particular cropproduces. That is, somecrops respond to increasedinvestment much more thanothers. To determine yourreturn on investment, multiplyyour investment by themultiple value. You shouldthen multiply this value by theproduction increase per $1million investment found incolumn 1, page 14 of yourstudent log to determine thechange in agricultural produc-tion as a result of yourinvestment. As you invest,your group should balancethe need to increase produc-tion for consumption with theneed to invest in products forforeign exchange.

Use the table in the Log atQuestion 9 to list your invest-ments.

Type of agriculture

Type offishery product

MaizeRiceOther grainsCassavaBeansPeanuts

CurrentProduction

(tonnes)

1,246,000 186,000 387,0005,553,000 189,000 147,000

Sources: Turner, 1999; Mozambique AgriculturalStatistics, http://www.ine.gov.mz/sector1/agricu.htm

Table 4: Agriculture and fisheryproduction in Mozambique

AnchoviesPrawns and shrimp

300,000 14,000

Table 5: Estimated multiple values for consumption orforeign exchange

*Roots include sweet potatoes, potatoes, and cassava.**Nuts include peanuts and cashews.

Type of agricultureMaizeRiceOther grainsFruits/vegetablesSugar caneRoots*Nuts**

Value for DomesticConsumption as

Multipliers

3422131

Value as Export for Foreign Exchange

as Multipliers

1111213

Type offishery product

LobsterPrawns and shrimp

11

25

1511


ReferencesBrown, L. R. 1999. State of the World 1999.

New York: W. W. Norton.Conway, G. 2000. Food for all in the 21st cen-

tury. Environment 42(1): 9-18.Dunbar, B., and A. Kenitzer. 1993. NASA helps

provide famine early warning for Africa.Spacelink news release.http://spacelink.nasa.gov/NASA.News/

NASA.News.Releases/Previous.News.Releases/93.News.Releases/93-11.News.Releases/93-11-29

Gardner, G., and B. Halweil. 2000. Nourishingthe Underfed and Overfed. State of theWorld 2000. New York: W. W. Norton.

Mozambique Agricultural Statisticshttp://www.ine.gov/mz/sector1/agricu.htm

Sen, A. K. 1981. Poverty and famines: An essayon entitlement and deprivation.: New York:Oxford University Press.

Sill, M. 1992. A geography of war. GeographicalMagazine, November: 45-50.

Smith, K. K. 2000. 6,000,000,000 and counting;Feeding a Hungry World. Imaging Notes,15(1) January/February 2000.

Turner, B. (ed.) 1999. The Statesman’s Yearbook.London: Macmillan.

Turner, B. L. II, G. Hyden, and R. Kates (eds.),1993. Population Growth and AgriculturalChange in Africa. Gainesville: UniversityPress of Florida.

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organiza-tion. 1998. The State of Food and Agriculture1998. FAO Agriculture Series No. 31http://www.fao.org/docrep/w9500e/

w9500e03.htm#03-I

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organiza-tion. 2000. Sixth World Surveyhttp://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/economic/

ESS/for-e.htmUSAID Famine Early Warning System

http://www.info.usaid.gov/fews/imagery/sat_afr.html

United States Bureau of the Census. 1998.World Population Profile: 1998.http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/wp98.html

World Food Summit. 1996. Food Security andNutrition 5.http://www.fao.org/wfs/final/e/volume1/T5-

E.htm#1.Introduction

Other ResourcesHart, J. E., and M. O. Lombardi (eds.) 2001.

Taking sides: Clashing view on controversialglobal issues. McGraw-Hill/Dushkin. Evans,L. T. 1998.

Feeding the ten billion. Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press.

U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization. 1995.World agriculture: Towards 2000. U.N. FAO.

Mitchell, D. O., M. D. Ingco, and R. C. Duncan.1997. The world food outlook. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.

Heileg, G. K. How many people can be fed onEarth? In The future population of the world:What can we assume today? 2d ed. W. Lutz,(ed.) Earthscan, 1996.

Cohen, J. E. 1995. How many people can theEarth support? New York: W. W. Norton,1995.

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1. Make a line graph of world population from 1800 to 2043, using the data in Table 1. What does thiscurve look like, and why?

2. Using Figure 2, compare and contrast the diet in your region with the other regions.

3. How do you explain these differences in diets?

4. Compare and contrast the dietary energy supply levels in your region with the other regions. Specifi-cally, name the countries (and their levels) in your region that have the highest and the lowest dietaryenergy supplies, and compare and contrast these with other countries with very high and very lowlevels.

Module 2, Investigation 3: LogWho will feed the world?

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5. With your team, brainstorm a list of reasons that might account for the variations in dietary energysupply levels between regions and countries and within countries.

6. According to Figure 6, which African regions have “very poor vegetation”? Why do you think this is so?

7. According to Figure 6, which African regions have shown “improvement” in their vegetation growth?

8. Estimate the cropland use intensity (CUI) for 1973, 1992, and 1995. How does this information assistyour group in understanding agricultural production in Mozambique?

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9. Put your group investment recommendations for the $40 million in the table below, and explain whyyou are investing this way.

*Roots include sweet potatoes, potatoes, and cassava. **Nuts include peanuts and cashews.

ProductionIncrease

Per $1 MillionInvestment(in milliontonnes)

ConsumptionMultiplier

ForeignExchangeMultiplier

Investment(in U.S.dollars)

Return onInvestment

(in milliontonnes)

Type ofagriculture

Maize

Rice

Other grains

Fruits/vegetables

Sugar cane

Roots*

Nuts**

1.00

0.75

1.00

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.90

3

4

2

2

1

3

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

3

Type of fisheryproduct

Lobster

Prawns andshrimp

1

1

2

5

0.90

0.45

Total $40 Million

module 2 educator’s guide investigation 3 - nasa · pdf file1 who will feed the world?...

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