ost horizon scanning centre what is….. horizon scanning? esrc research methods festival 2008 st...

OSTHorizon Scanning Centre

What is….. Horizon Scanning?

ESRC Research Methods Festival 2008

St Catherine’s College, Oxford

02 July 2008

Dr Harry WoodroofLeader, Delta (S&T) ScanHorizon Scanning Centre

Government Office for ScienceDepartment of Innovation, Universities and Skills

Bay 250, Kingsgate House, 66 – 74 Victoria St, London. SW1E 6SW +44 (0)203 300 8840 [email protected]

<http://www.foresight.gov.uk/horizonscanning/>


Prime Minister and Cabinet

Professor John BeddingtonGovernment Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science

Government Office for Science(GO-Science)

SocialTechnicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical

Horizon Scanning Centresmaller projects, entire policy spectrum

strategy

The Foresight Programme

Foresight projects(large (18 months), science-based)


HSC Aims HSC Aims (from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘05(from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘05

• Inform strategic prioritisation across UK Govt

• Capability-raising in Govt Depts

Implemented through:

• Targeted projects

• Training

• Strong networks

Future Analysts Network (FAN) Club

30+ projects, 30+ depts., 1000+ in training / networking events,30+ projects, 30+ depts., 1000+ in training / networking events,

Direct impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, PrioritisationDirect impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, Prioritisation


Horizon Scanning is... Horizon Scanning is...

“…“…. the . the systematicsystematic examination of potential examination of potential threats, threats, opportunities opportunities and likely developments including but not and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.” unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.”

(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)


Horizon scanning is……Horizon scanning is……

Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales

Looking across – beyond usual sources

beyondbeyond a ‘single a ‘single expected expected

future’future’toto

a ‘range of a ‘range of possible possible futures’futures’

to considerto consider implications implications for today’s for today’s decisionsdecisions

…….resilience and adaptability in strategy.resilience and adaptability in strategy


What horizon scanning is … and isn’t

• It is NOT about:– Predicting the future

• It IS about:– Exploring possibilities for the future to

ensure that your strategies are robust


Range of horizon scanning activity

SocialTechnicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical

Science&Technology

FORESIGHT

INSIGHT

ACTION(from IFTF)

Developing issues

Strategicchangemanagement

Strategicprioritisation

Policydecisions

Riskmanagement

Threatidentification

S&Tresearchpriorities

PURPOSES

scanning

engagementto achieve impact

Implications (so what?)

Decisions


Nature of horizon scanning

• The evidence-based policy “paradox”:– Policy is about solutions for the future– But conventional “evidence” is about the past

• We can project trends forwards… but all trends eventually change

• The parable of the turkey• HS is an approach to resolving the paradox

by drawing on tacit knowledge and the wisdom of crowds (diversity is v. important)


Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06)Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06)

Outsights / Ipsos

MO

RI

SCAN

(everything)

Institute for the F

uture

Delta Scan:Delta Scan:cutting-edge perspectivesof over 250 S&T experts

Sigma Scan:Sigma Scan:synthesis of best

global futures work

www.sigmascan.org

www.deltascan.org


Sigmascan

• Right to live: right to die?• Global courting : the supremacy of international law.• Increase in e-commuting.• UK rules OK : isolationist Britain.• End of public broadcasting.• Ghettoisation of minority populations.• Landfill capacity limits reached.• Economic impact of ageing.• The “rights” of robots.• Corrupting aid flows• ………………….

Delta(S&T) scan

• Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine.• Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement.• Nanowire sensors for DNA testing.• Advent of molecular archaeology.• Computing on the human platform.• Solar: the energy wild-card.• From ink-jet printing to personal fabrication.• Brazil’s expanding tech. sector.• ………………….


Scan Architecture - linking evidence and analysis

– Summary sentence– Supporting analysis (paras)– Bullet-points

• Implications• Barriers/inhibitors• Early indicators• Parallels/precedents• Leading institutions

– Sources : evidence-based• Multi-level outputs

– Range : single sentence to great detail– Portal for further research


HSC “scan of scans”

& “expert views”

In common with much futures/foresight work, the Scans are designed to challenge current thinking and implicit assumptions. They do not to attempt to predict the future.


Sigma Scan

“scan of scans”

The Sigma Scan is a synthesis of future issues and trends covering the full public policy agenda drawn from a range of sources (including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blog sites, minority communities, futurists).

Adam Smith Institute

Arlington Institute

Atlantic Monthly

Brookings Institution

Cato Center for Trade Policy Studies

Centre for European Reform

Centre for Strategic and International Studies

Chatham House

Foreign Affairs

Hoover Digest

Independent Commission on Population and Quality of Life

Institut de Recherche en Politiques Publiques

Institute for Fiscal Studies

British Social Attitudes Survey

Centre for Environmental Research, Columbia University

e-Living (EC 5FP) Project

ESRC Centre for Business Research,

Institute of Development Studies

Los Angeles Law Review

Policy Studies Review

Russian Journal, The

Science

Science and Public Policy

World Values Survey

the top Horizon Scan sources

global coverage

both ‘traditional’ and ‘unconventional’

Europe 2020

Future of Work

Futures

Futurist

Institute for the Future

McKinsey Global Institute

MORI Polls

Shaping Tomorrow

Shell Global Scenarios

Siemens Horizons

SRI Consulting

World Future Society

Think tanks

Academic publications

Mainstream media

Central Intelligence Agency (US)

Commonwealth Secretariat

Competition Commission

DEFRA Baseline Scan

DEFRA Forward Look

Department for Culture, Media and Sport

Department for International Development

Department for Work and Pensions

Department of Education (US)

Department of Health

Department of Justice (US)

Department of Labor (US)

Corporate Foresight

Expert/Strategic thinkers

Government sources

Alternative journals

Amnesty International

Board of Deputies of British Jews

British Council

Countryside Alliance

International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement

Make Poverty History campaign

Muslim Council of Britain

Oxfam

Trade Union Congress

World Health Organization

World Trade Organization

Institute for Public Policy Research

Charities/NGOs

Blog sites

Minority communities

Futurologists

SIGMA : scan of scans

Process ProvenanceLeading Futures sources scanned for

key issues1. Overview scan

2. Issues ‘tree’ Range of issues identified from mainstream-marginal.

3. Issue generation1. Brainstorming, noting and scoping2. Sources: review available evidence3. Drafting within defined text-fields 4. Review and further referencing

4. Internal QC Partnership: 3 stages of edit

6. External review & gap filling

Stakeholders, end-users and experts: engagement, enrichment & gaps

5. ‘Horizon’ review Horizon panel: Issue topics sense-checked and reviewed for gaps

Sigma Scan


Delta (S&T) Scan

“expert views”

The Delta (S&T) Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication.

Interviews

Workshops

wiki


2008 refresh :issue selection criteria

Gap: is not already covered sufficiently in the Sigma-Delta Scan

Relevance: the theme or trend is potentially relevant to a wide range of UK policy stakeholders and departments, or strongly relevant to a smaller

number of departments/policymakers.

Impact: the theme or trend could have significant impacts on important aspects of UK Government policy.

Evidence: the theme or trend is underpinned, at least to some degree, by a critical mass of authoritative, credible evidence.

Stimulus: the theme or topic is future-focussed and not merely descriptive of current reality or known variables and reporting. It either describes

something new or casts new light on an existing issue.


Developing robust and sustainable strategies

Where we are now

Where we want to be

How

we

get there

Analysis of past evidence

Analysis of core certainties (modelling,

forecasting)

Exploration of uncertainties

(horizon scanning)

Creation of vision (horizon

scanning)


Example ProjectExample ProjectImpactsImpacts

Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Instrumental in shaping trade policyInstrumental in shaping trade policy

& UKTI Strategy, & UKTI Strategy,

IDENTITYIDENTITYMANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Crosby/HMT – public/private forumCrosby/HMT – public/private forumKey statement on ID policy architectureKey statement on ID policy architecture

[HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty][HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty]

INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONALFUTURESFUTURESPROJECTPROJECT

? ?

20 perm secs, 13 depts - 20 perm secs, 13 depts - HMT (International Institutions)HMT (International Institutions)FCO/DfID/MoD – cross-dept strategic FCO/DfID/MoD – cross-dept strategic

issuesissuesUKTI – comparative advantageUKTI – comparative advantageOSI International Strategy,OSI International Strategy,BERR – Board strategyBERR – Board strategyDIUS - ?DIUS - ?, etc.,…, etc.,…

EMERGINGEMERGINGTECHNOLOGIESTECHNOLOGIES

14 Depts. prioritisation14 Depts. prioritisationHMT CSR PublicationHMT CSR Publication

SR GuidanceSR GuidanceInforms public dialogueInforms public dialogue

MoD strategic trendsMoD strategic trendsHSE future of workHSE future of work

OSI CSR bidOSI CSR bid


Science & academia : “Work not published = Work not done.”

Government : “Work not :

• put in front of the right decision-makers;• at the right time;• in a format they can easily understand and use

= Work not done.

Good communications materialto achieve impact

ost horizon scanning centre what is….. horizon scanning? esrc research methods festival 2008 st...

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