problem solving

1Copyright © 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Welcome

American Society for QualityRichmond Chapter

Richmond ,VirginiaApril 8, 2008


Session Objectives

1. Overview of Thinking Dimensions LLC and KEPNERandFOURIE™ methodology

2. Overview recent research in the filed of Problem Solving and Decision Making language for critical thinking

3. Demonstration of one of the Thinking Dimensions (Decision Making) via a case study


About Thinking Dimensions

Solutions Corporate Strategy Operational Improvement Learning & Development

Approach Bring proven decision making

and thinking methodologies to assist clients battling growth, cost, productivity and innovation challenges

Our collaborative strategy, process improvement and KEPNERandFOURIE™ Thinking Technologies guide the development of effective corporate strategies, operational improvements, innovation and L&D solutions

Used by some of the most well-known companies world-wide


Developed by Dr. Chuck Kepner and Dr. Matthys Fourie

Recognized experts in design and consulting

Integration of rational, creative and intuitive dimensions of thinking

Application of divergent - convergent thinking skills

Scaleable approaches to deal with different tiers of problems and complexity levels

Action Plan Oriented

Results Based

About KEPNERandFOURIE

Dr. Chuck Kepner

Dr. Matthys Fourie


An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes


QualityQualityCostCost

TimelinessTimelinessEfficiencyEfficiencyGrowthGrowth

AlignmentAlignment

ActionsActions that drive

business results:•FasterFaster

•CheaperCheaper•BetterBetter

The fundamentals of KEPNERandFOURIE thinking


1. RATIONAL THINKING

Uses information from direct observation and information that has been gathered from reliable sources – considered most reliable and valid

2. INTUITIVE THINKING

What a person has seen and experienced over the years

3. CREATIVE THINKING

Putting known elements together to form new ideas and visions

TD Processes Utilize Three Modes of Thinking to Maximize Adoption and Application

PUZZLE Exercise


Key Learning from the Puzzle Exercise

Thinking is a process

Everybody is an expert

Appreciation of the differences


InformationData

KnowledgeExperience

Facts

Gather Gather SortSort

Organize Organize AnalyzeAnalyzeConfirmConfirm

Business ResultsBusiness Results

• Clarified Situations

• Prioritized Issues

• Problems Solved

• Decisions Made

• Plans Protected

Inputs Process Output

Rational

Creative

Intuitive

QuestioningQuestioning is key Makes your Thinking VisibleThinking Visible

Provides a Consistent Common Language Consistent Common Language

QuestioningQuestioning is key Makes your Thinking VisibleThinking Visible

Provides a Consistent Common Language Consistent Common Language

Copyright © 2007 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

QualityQualityQualityQualityQualityQuality ++ ==

What if?

What now?

Why?

What do we mean by?

What first?

TD’s Approach to ThinkingWorks


The Context and Practical Intent to Make Them Work in Organizations


Ohio State University

356 Corporate American Decisions

228 implemented

Only 90 still in force after 2 years

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

356 228 90

Decisions Implement 2 years

Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

Paul Nutt’s Research


271 Decisions taken by decree

Only 143 (53%) implemented

Only 10 (7% of 143) successful

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

271 143 10

Decree Implem't Success

Decisions by decree



85 decisions made through participation

All 85 were implemented

80 (93%) seen as successful after 2 years.

Decisions through participation


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

85 85 80

Part'ion Implem't Success


Three blunders…

Rush to judgment Pressure from the top Take first solution being presented Failure is 4 times more likely

Misuse of resources (Spending time and money on the wrong things) Not exploring the reasons or background to the decision situation No stakeholder analysis – vested interest Not finding an all-inclusive answer

Failure to use any decision process methodologies Poor collaboration and/or participation Using an incomplete process Using power and/or persuasion Will take too long


Nature is to compare alternatives against each other

Recipe for disaster

First sort out the purpose

Then get the requirements

Compare alternatives to requirements

A B

Requirements

Consensus Decision Making


SolutionWise – What Now?

Purpose: To find the best solution for a given situation

Steps:


Types of Action That Are Decisions

Repairing: Immediate actions to reinstate something to its previous level of usefulness

Improving: Looking beyond the immediate fix to make fixes less frequent by making things better

Innovating: Thinking creatively about cause and effect (the old way is not good enough)

Avoiding: Thinking of how to get around the situation to remove or neutralize the cause


Step 1. State the Purpose

Why: To clarify the purpose of the decision

How: Ask:• What is the ultimate purpose of this decision?• Why do you want to make this decision? or• What outcome do you want to achieve?

Rules: Be as specific and concise as possible

Look at the concepts of:

• Select

• Create

• Develop


SolutionWise DemonstrationStep 1: State the Purpose

Purpose Statement: Increase market share


Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Why: To create a sound evaluation basis to find the best solution

How: 1. List stakeholders and all the solution requirements (“wish list”)

2. Crystallize and/or consolidate the important requirements. Ask:• What are the key requirements for this solution?

3. Write each solution requirement as an objective to be achieved.

4. Consider different possibilities – such as Repairing, Improving, Innovating, Avoiding, Short and Long Term Solutions

Rules: • Quantify requirements as far as possible• Ensure that the ultimate purpose of the decision is

reflected in the requirements.

22Copyright © 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.Copyright 2007 Thinking Dimensions www.thinkingdimensions.com

Why: Involve Internal and External Stakeholders (the Individual/ Group/ Institution that will be influenced by or have an interest in the outcome(s) of the issue) to maximize collaboration and alignment of requirements

How: Identify Stakeholders: Internal

– Company– Customers

External– Competitors– Suppliers– Influencers (activists, media, associations)– Facilitators (Gov’t, Regulators, Licensing authorities)

Step 2. Clarify Solution RequirementsList Stakeholders


SolutionWise DemonstrationList Stakeholders

Bank Management

Employees

Marketing Vice-President

Suppliers

IT Division Head


Step 2. Listing Solution Requirements(“Wish List”)

Requirements to fulfill Problems/Symptoms to Remove

What main and secondary results do you want to achieve with this solution?

What existing problems or symptoms do you want to remove?

Risks to Avoid Resources and Restrictions

In reaching your solution , what risks do you want to avoid?

What money, time and otherresources are you permitted to spend, preserve and/or minimize?Any requirements out of your control? (e.g. time, money, legal, political)

• Intuitive approach: List stakeholders, brainstorm requirements in general and then check whether all stakeholders were considered

• Analytical approach: List stakeholders, brainstorm all requirements for each individual stakeholder


SolutionWise DemonstrationStep 2: Clarify Solution Requirements


Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Risks to avoid Resources and restrictions

Increase market share by

2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on

competition

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times

with customers Poor communication with

clients

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation


Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Why: To create a sound evaluation basis to find the best solution

How: 1. List stakeholders and all the solution requirements (“wish list”)

2. Crystallize and/or consolidate the important requirements. Ask:• What are the key requirements for this solution?

3. Write each solution requirement as an objective to be achieved.

4. Consider different possibilities – such as Repairing, Improving, Innovating, Avoiding, Short and Long Term Solutions

Rules: • Quantify requirements as far as possible• Ensure that the ultimate purpose of the decision is

reflected in the requirements.



List of Key Requirements


1 Increase market share by at least 2%









competition

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with

clients








2 Retain increased business for at least 3 years









competition



clients









3 Implement the option within 5 months









competition



clients










4 Maximum hassle free convenience to clients









competition



clients











5 Implementation costs not to exceed 80K

6 Keep operations as simple as possible for employees









competition



clients











5 Implementation costs not to exceed 80K

6 Keep operations as simple as possible for employees


Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives

Why: To identify the various ways to solve the situation and to evaluate them in terms of each solution requirement

How: 1. Generate Alternatives using any of the followingapproaches:

• Combine certain alternatives• Build alternatives based on different types of

actions• Consider short/long term implications/

requirements• Use the stated purpose• Refer to solution requirements• Consider “what if” scenarios• Consult external sources


Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives

2. Evaluate Alternatives

How: 1. Evaluate each alternative against each solution requirement. Ask:• How does this alternative satisfy the specific

requirement?2. Write down how the alternative satisfies each

solution requirement.3. Identify the best performing elements for each

alternative. Ask:• Which alternative(s) satisfies the stated

requirement the best?

Rules: Involve all stakeholders. Reach agreement on every aspect of the evaluation.


SolutionWise DemonstrationStep 3: Evaluate Alternatives

Key Requirements Advert’ing Credit Direct Contest

Increase market share by at least 2 %

Retain increased business for at least 3 years

Implement the option within 5 months

Maximum hassle free convenience to clients

Implementation costs not to exceed 80K

Keep operations as simple as possible for employees


1

2

3

4

5

6

3.6% 2.4% 3.6% 3%

Some will remember after initial

period

Lock-in for at least 2

years

Convenience will make them

stay longer

Short burst only

5 months7 months or

longerWithin 2 months

3 months

No effect None at allLearning how

to do itNo effect

65K 74.6K 54K 60K

No effectMore of the

sameMore

complicatedMinor effect


Step 4. Create a Solution

Why: To construct the best total solution for a decision

How: METHOD ONE Consider the best performing elements of the various

alternatives. Select actions that will meet the solution

requirements the best. Create a solution by placing the actions in a logical

sequence over a period of time

METHOD TWO Select best performing alternative Improve its weak elements with ideas or features

from competing alternatives

Rule: Ensure that all weak areas are identified and addressed


SolutionWise DemonstrationStep 4: Create a Solution

1. Go for the Direct Telephone banking for limited access facilities and only advertise this service to targeted audiences.

2. Market and issue Credit Cards to existing client base. Couple this to an internal and external contest for suggesting a friend or family member to the bank’s credit card campaign.


An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes


CauseWise and L6S

Testimonial

“KEPNERandFOURIE tools have helped us to substantially improve our project lead time by providing the missing link for us in resolving special cause problems by leveraging systematic critical thinking. These are the tools and methodologies that Black Belts and Green Belts cannot afford to go without.”

Don Lynch, Master Black Belt, SKF USA


CauseWise and L6S

Testimonial

"The KEPNERandFOURIE RCA is a powerful process that helpsus think through and resolve problems in a structured and visible manner. I strongly endorse this training. Significantly, it helps our Green and Black belts to implement their Lean Six Sigma initiatives."

Doug Smith, MBB, Dean of NAVSEA College


CauseWise – Why?

Purpose: To find the true cause(s) of a deviation

Steps:


Problem Definition

Deviation of actual from standard

Cause unknown or unproven

Need to find cause

STANDARD

DEVIATION

ACTUAL

NowPast


05

101520253035404550

Problem solved

95% not having the correct people around the table

Dealing with suspect information

Average time to resolution is six (6) + months

Poor Root Cause Practice…


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

Purpose Requirements Alternatives Risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

Purpose Requirements Alternatives Risks

Ineffective vs. effective decision making meetings

- Effective - - Ineffective -


Pitfall is looking for the people reason first

First look for the technical reason – True Cause

Once verified, then look for the people reason – Root Cause

DeviationTrue

CauseRoot Cause

Blame Fixing…

EVENT TECHNICAL PEOPLE


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1stDay

1st Wk 1stMth

Later

# Solved

Using the correct stakeholders the first time

Dealing with accurate information

Average time to solve is 30 minutes to less than one (1) week

Good Root Cause Practice…


Questions/Comments

Thinking Dimensions LLC

4234 Upper Park Drive

Fairfax, Virginia 22030

(t) 703-865-6700

(f) 703-865-6701

[email protected]

www.thinkingddimensions.com


Stop talking Bill, it’s over!


1

2

3

CauseWise DemonstrationStep 2: Clarify Problem Detail

Cards in use

Don’t know

Don’t know

Supplier

Specific place only

Dealers

All over country

Embossing flattened

Damaged strip

Printing wrong

Credit cards Savings cards New supplier

More frequently used

“IS” “BUT NOT” “WHY (NOT)”


4

5

6

7


10 days ago Before/after Don’t know

80% r/h/s

20% l/h/s

Random or any specific place

Half of the card every time

Plastic wallet defect



4

5

6

7


Continuous Sporadic or periodic Don’t know


80% r/h/s

20% l/h/s






Question 7: Sequence of Events

Alternative Questions1. When in the sequence of events of the object was the fault first

noticed?2. What was happening to the object in its sequence of events when

the fault was first noticed?3. When in the life cycle of the object was the fault first noticed?4. Any other cycles?

Question to the void Technique1. Identify in which phase of the object’s life cycle the deviation

occurred2. Once you have identified the phases in the life cycle, it is often

useful to identify when specifically in this phase did the deviation occur.


4

5

6

7


Continuous Sporadic or periodic Don’t know


80% r/h/s

20% l/h/s





Don’t knowBefore 6 months6-11 months old


Step 3. Generate Causes

Why: To theorize possible causes of the problem in order to find the true cause To incorporate everyone’s gut feel and experience in how they think the problem could have been caused. To create a common understanding of the probable cause

How: Look at each Why (Not) individually and/or collectively

and ask:Looking at Why (Not) contributions, what would you

say is causing the problem? and/orWhat do you think is causing the problem

Rule: List a causal statement(s) that will logically explain howthe deviation/fault could have occurred.


1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines.

CauseWise DemonstrationStep 3: Develop Possible Causes



2.The plastic wallet reacts with the embossed letters of the card in some way, making it soft and causing it to go flat.

CauseWise DemonstrationStep 3: Develop Possible Causes


Step 4. Confirm True Cause - Testing

Why: To prove the true cause on paper

How: 1. Determine how the cause proves the IS and the BUT NOT.

• Ask: If “X” is the true cause, how does it substantiate that we have a problem with the Is and not the BUT NOT?

2. Use a check technique

Rules: Must explain both the IS and BUT NOT Test destructively Note all assumptions



2.The plastic wallet reacts with the embossed letters of the card in some way, making it soft and causing it to go flat.

CauseWise DemonstrationStep 4: Confirm True Cause - Testing

YES

A2A1

YES YES NO

YES YES YES YES YES

A1: Only if some people put the card in the wallet the other way round

A2: Only if the reaction takes up to 6 months to take effect

problem solving

Documents

thinking dimensionskepner

modes of thinking

critical thinking

puzzle exercise thinking

matthys fourie

prof paul nutt copyright

decision situation

ohio state university