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Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness

of NEDO Projectsof NEDO Projects

～ Analysis of “NEDO inside Products” Survey ～

 Evaluation Department

○Masaru YAMASHITA, Yoshiko YURUGI,

Sayaka SHISHIDO, and Mitsuru TAKESHITA

Inside

New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization

Inside

  

・・・・ , is developed the result of a NEDO project as a core technology at the early stagas a core technology at the early stag,, which leads to the product concerned, which is utilized ・・・・・

Contribution ratio Contribution ratio 100%100%

◆◆ PurposePurpose ：： The cost effectiveness and social benefitThe cost effectiveness and social benefit about the “NEDO inside 30 Products"about the “NEDO inside 30 Products" were were examined.examined.

What is “NEDO inside Products” What is “NEDO inside Products”

ResultsResults ProductsProducts

★ ★ Large Sales 30 ProductsLarge Sales 30 Products

　　 1. Candidate products;1. Candidate products; ○ Latest year sales : 1.25 billion$ or more 1.25 billion$ or more 　　　　 ○ 0.25 or more0.25 or more ～～ less than 1.25 billion$ ○ Sales are small, but its social benefit social benefit is large

　　 2. Trial calculation;2. Trial calculation;

　　①① Economic effect:Economic effect: 　　　 PJ fund, the latest sales, sales for the past five years, 　　 prediction sales in 2010 ～ 2020

　　 ②② Social benefit:Social benefit: 　　　　　　　　　 CO2 reduction effect, ripple effects, employment, etc. 　　　

Inside　　 ExaminationExamination ：：

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・・　　 Average cost of PJAverage cost of PJ(Fy)(Fy) : : Eq.=Eq.= 　 【 The total cost for a project implementation period 】　　　　 【 PJ term 】

・・　　 Latest sales of FyLatest sales of Fy(Fy2009) (Fy2009) : Eq.=: Eq.= 【 The sum total for latest object products for 5 years 】 【 5 years 】

Or 【 the reply only for a single year is the frame 】

・・ Future salesFuture sales(Fy.2010(Fy.2010 ～～ 2020 accumulation)2020 accumulation)

Simple trial calculation ・・・・・・・・・＞ a basis on sales forecasting in 2020

Inside　 Calculation:Calculation:

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”” NEDO inside 30 products” NEDO inside 30 products” stand outstand out and and it answers from it answers from 80 companies.80 companies. 　　

　＜＜ Official dataOfficial data ＞＞ ① Economic Organization 　② Public Institution, Private Research Institute

＜＜ FurthermoreFurthermore ＞＞ ③ To the data running short, complement calculation is done above data and it applies. (only in case of prediction).

Inside Basis Data: Basis Data:

Inside

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NEDO input cost Sales track record Future Sales

Accumulation in 2010 ～ 2020

Average PJ Cost/year

Accumulation PJ cost/term

Latest Sales /year

Accumulation for latest five

years

Solar Cell 5858 1,735 5,000 12,86912,869 151,250 Wind power 44 85 1,096 1,0961,096 19,890 Heat pump water heater

1212 154 1,500 5,2785,278 24,000

Family-size fuel cell 4949 880 189 189189 15,945 Highly efficient industrial furnace 1111 80 61 700700 1,650 Low-pollution diesel car

66 42 97 485485 2,600

Water disposal plant 1515 88 66 6666 17,268

Blu-ray 1212 61 3,463 4,5164,516 122,633 Others 161161 1,128 9,558 24,44724,447 203, 759

Sum totalSum total 0.410.41 5.35.3 26.326.3 62.162.1 698.7698.7

（ Unit ：100million　JP\ 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Billion　$）

The sales track record of top 30 ItemsThe sales track record of top 30 Items

Forecasting Sales Forecasting Sales in 2010 in 2010 ～～ 20202020: 698.7billion$.: 698.7billion$.

○ The NEDO budget is about 5.3billion$. ○ Corporate-income taxation is about 10.4 billion$ : Eq.= 698.7 billion(s) $ ×3.66%(pretax margin ratio)

×40.69% (effective rate of corporate income taxation)

※ The Ministry of Finance "business and investment survey of incorporated enterprises“ is referred to.

【【 ResultsResults 】】 Tax revenues(10.4) exceeds a NEDO budget

injection(5.3) .

Inside Cost EffectivenessCost Effectiveness

Forecasting Sales in 2010 ～ 2020: 698.7billion$.

○26.3billion$×13.38%(Sales ratio of personnel expenses)

÷6238$ (Average proceeds ) ＝ 56,000 people/year 　 ○ 698.7billion$×13.38%(Sales ratio of personnel expenses)

÷6238$(Average proceeds) ＝ 1,500,000 people/10year

※ A sales ratio of personnel expenses refers to the Ministry of Finance "business and investment survey of incorporated enterprises", and refer to National Tax Agency "pay-for-private-sector-employees survey" for average proceeds.

【 【 ResultsResults 】】 ((The sales in 2009 and 2010 The sales in 2009 and 2010 ～～ 2020)2020)

About 56,000 ～ 150,000 people for every year.

Inside Employment EffectEmployment Effect

Inside 1. Energy and Environment 1. Energy and Environment ・・・・・・ 13Items13Items

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NEDO input cost Sales track record Future sales

accumulation in 2010 ～ 2020

Average PJ Cost/y

Accumulation PJ

Cost/term

Latest Sales /y

Accumulation for latest five

years

Total amount 0.41 5.3 26.3 62.1 698.71. Energy and Environmental Problem

0.22 4.4 12.8 33.5 408.32. Relief and Safe Social Construction

0.0640.064 0.430.43 0.520.52 1.501.50 36.8636.86

3. Industrial Competitiveness Strengthening

0.120.12 0.460.46 12.9412.94 27.027.0 253.6253.6

Object products: Photovoltaic, Wind power generation, Generating electricity from waste materials, a home hot-water supply machine (ECO CUTE), industrial heat pump, Vacuum insulating material, Chlorofluocarbon destruction and substitution, Fuel cell, Storage battery (lithium ion battery), Micro fuel cell, the charge of an insulation material, standby-power-requirement reduction technology, and highly efficient industrial furnace

（ unit Billion $）

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Utilization of a solar cell

Micro crystallite tandem

Formation of large area and the improvement in power generation efficiency realize cost reduction.

Film type

it can bend freely [ it is light and ] -- it is installation to the roof where intensity is weak, a curved surface-like roof, etc. -- possible

　　 The result of research spreads also as core technology of not only a solar energy power generation system but also liquid crystal industry (large-sized TFT manufacture), or semiconductor industry (large caliber slice).

The View Point Fy1981 ～　 2.17billion$

Inside

★ The Solar Cell technology were mostly developed the mostly developed the result of NEDO project. result of NEDO project. ★ A system installation price falls in about 1/3.1/3. ★ Latest Market Sales in 2010 ・・・・・・ 8billion$.8billion$.

Solar CellSolar Cell

The "Kyoto Protocol target achievement plan" also aims at the spread of 5,200,000 heat pump hot-water supply sets and 2,800,000 latent heat recovery gas hot-water supply sets by 2010.

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★Heat pump hot-water supply machine which can be adapted as "ECO CUTE" "ECO CUTE" also in the high efficiency of being more more than twice,than twice, compared with the conventional machine.

From 2007, it introduces into the market steadily.

Sales in Fy.20082008---> about 50,000 sets/y50,000 sets/y

Finishing of 2 million-set introduction by December, December, 2009.2009.

～ 2020 accumulation ：10 million sets

Households Energy Consumption in 2006

hot-water

supply 　

31 ％

Heating 24 ％

Power etc. 35 ％

Cookroom 8 ％

Air conditioning

2 ％

The energy consumed for hot-water supply occupies 31% of the energy consumption of a home section.

Fy1984 ～ 2007 193million$

Inside　　 ECO CUTEECO CUTE ( home hot-water supply machine) ( home hot-water supply machine)

The View Point

Post-processing equipment (Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. KAJIMA factory)

★ Chlorofluocarbon destructive equipment were developed, 8 sets8 sets in Japan and 14 sets at overseasin Japan and 14 sets at overseas are working! ★It is established as reduction of CO2, 10 million-ton /y equivalent to 0.8% of the amount of discharge will be reduced!

Technology of collecting the recycled resources(fluoriteas)recycled resources(fluoriteas) while burning and destroying various Chlorofluocarbon it in liquid.

The amount of CO2 reduction ---> Domestic 10 million-ton/y. Overseas 10 million-ton/y.

The market expansion of 3 times The market expansion of 3 times or more expects overseas! or more expects overseas! Submerged combustion furnace

(Daikin Industries, LTD. Yodogawa factory) 　　　

　

HFC-23 (3% subraw) which occurs at the time of manufacture of HCFC-22 is decomposed.

Fy1996 ～ 2006 60million$

Inside Chlorofluocarbon Chlorofluocarbon DestructionDestructionThe View Point

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★Produce commercially as “ENE“ENE ・・ FARM " for the first time in FARM " for the first time in the world,the world, NEDO contributed to an introductory expansion of the family-size fuel cell.

★ 18,150(accumulation)18,150(accumulation) sets sets had been sold in Japan until 2011!

Family-size fuel cell cogeneration systemEne-Farm"

The performance of a home polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) system and improvement in durability were realized by industry-academia- industry-academia-

collaboration.collaboration.

Every year 5,000 sets will be sold in 2009 ～ 2011 :Total Sales .68billion$.

Fy. 2020 sales : 500,000 setsFy. 2020 sales : 500,000 sets

Fy1992 ～ 2010 1.1billion$

InsideThe View Point (Prime Minister prize 2010(Prime Minister prize 2010))

FFuel Cell Power Generationuel Cell Power Generation

Inside

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★Energy saving and NOx discharge were realized, a a NONOxx

remarkable cut, remarkable cut, 20% miniaturization, and 30%20% miniaturization, and 30% energy saving !energy saving !

★Introduction for commercial plants, such as the steel industry steel industry and aluminumand aluminum industry, and it occupied 1/3occupied 1/3 or more sale. or more sale.

As for the simulation simulation technique and a databasetechnique and a database are applied for the other uses of high temperature air combustion.

668 affairs (0.88billion$) are introduced till Fy2001～ 2005.

efficient industrial furnace　

　 　 Main Principles of Regenerative Burner

Fy1993 ～ 2000 420millionn$The View Point

Highly Efficient FurnaceHighly Efficient Furnace

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Object products: CT (medical equipment), the microscope for biotechnology, a low-pollution diesel car, ecocement, photocatalyst, water disposal, and antibody drug

Inside

NEDO input cost Sales track record Future sales

accumulation in 2010 ～ 2020

Average PJ Cost/y

Accumulation PJ

Cost/term

Latest Sales /y

Accumulation for latest five

years

Total amount 0.41 5.3 26.3 62.1 698.71. Energy and Environmental Problem

0.220.22 4.44.4 12.812.8 33.533.5 408.3408.32. Relief and Safe Social Construction

0.064 0.43 0.52 1.50 36.86

3. Industrial Competitiveness Strengthening

0.120.12 0.460.46 12.9412.94 27.027.0 253.6253.6

（ unit Billion $）

22 ．． Relief and SafeRelief and Safe ・・・ ・・・ 7Items7Items

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The heart photoed by one rotation. （　 A providing agency: Fujita Health University ） /

Aquilion ONETM

（　 A providing agency: Toshiba Medical

Systems Systems）

★The contribution to payment-by-the- patient reduction by shortening 1/5 or less of photography time, etc. More than world 100 setsMore than world 100 sets onon(Japanese 27, the U.S. 36, Europe (Japanese 27, the U.S. 36, Europe 20) -- in operation20) -- in operation

A providing agency: Tokyo Women's Medical University, Hitachi Medical ）

Brain Tumor Full ExtractionBrain Tumor Full ExtractionBrain Tumor Full ExtractionBrain Tumor Full ExtractionFy1998 ～ 2003 　　 11.7million$

Inside

The View Point The View Point★An 700 -operation already carries out to

all the example no accident

The probability of survival will improveThe probability of survival will improve sharply for after a brain tumor sharply for after a brain tumor

patient‘spatient‘soperationoperation for five years with 90% for five years with 90% (69%(69%

of national average)of national average)

4-dimensional X-rays CT4-dimensional X-rays CT4-dimensional X-rays CT4-dimensional X-rays CT

Advanced Advanced MedicalMedical Imaging!Imaging!

Inside Eco-CementEco-Cement

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Eco-cement is a compound word of ecology and cementEco-cement is a compound word of ecology and cement and is new cement manufactured by combustion ashes and raw sludge, as main materials. Fy 1994: NEDO empirical-study start Fy 2006: Eco-cement JIS establishment

(1)City garbage incineration ashes: 62,000 / y(2)Burn sludge, industrial waste: 28,000ton/ y(3)Producton: 145,000ton/y (Tokyo Tama)(3)Producton: 145,000ton/y (Tokyo Tama)

“ Specification of Green Purchasing Law” ・・・・・ Specific ProcuredSpecific Procured ItemItem

　　 Fy1993 ～ 1997 　 31.3million$

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Object products: Blue lei allied products, a perpendicular-magnetic-recording HDD, nano-e, a magnetic sheet, high efficiency and a quantity reliability server, electronic lithography, auto-parts related adhesion technology, semiconductor related adhesion technology, Cat-CVD, cleaning robot

Inside3. Industrial Competitiveness 3. Industrial Competitiveness ・・ 10Items10Items

NEDO input cost Sales track record Future sales

accumulation in 2010 ～ 2020

Average PJ Cost/y

Accumulation PJ

Cost/term

Latest Sales /y

Accumulation for latest five

years

Total amount 0.41 5.3 26.3 62.1 698.71. Energy and Environmental Problem

0.220.22 4.44.4 12.812.8 33.533.5 408.3408.32. Relief and Safe Social Construction

0.0640.064 0.430.43 0.520.52 1.501.50 36.8636.86

3. Industrial Competitiveness Strengthening

0.12 0.46 12.94 27.0 253.6

（ unit Billion $）

Inside Blu-ray DiscBlu-ray Disc

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High density recording High density recording and runningand running are realizable, energy saving is also high.

JAPAN captures 90%JAPAN captures 90% (Fy.2008) of share of a world market.

Sales in 2008: Sales in 2008: → ・・・・→ ・・・・

4.33billion$4.33billion$

Anticipation Sales:

2012: -- 14.4billion$ 2020: -- 153.3billion$

Fy1998 ～ 2002 76.3million$The View Point

① Technology which indicates two record layers on a disk and it reads with light

② The technology which draws recorded information (pit) correctly to original recording was developed.

★Technology which reads record by detecting the very small pitdetecting the very small pit on a disk with blue laser!

★Two or more companies concentrate to a consortium promote a standardization activity,standardization activity, and is a worldwide sales greatly.!

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★The based HDD was developed by adopting vertical recording vertical recording system system (epoch-making invention from Japan which stuffs magnetic data at right angles to a record side)! ★Fast large-scale and downsizing Fast large-scale and downsizing are realized. HDD contributed to the global new market creation greatly!

Almost all the present HDD serve as this perpendicular magnetic recording, and dominated the worlddominated the world..

Storage density of 50 timesStorage density of 50 timesor more is realized.or more is realized. The storage capacity for 50hard disks before a projectis possible at one set.

In 2004 and afterwards :

→a perpendicular-magnetic-recording start.

Sales in 2008 ：　 7.17billion$

Sales Accumulation in 2010 ～ 2020 ：　 78.8billion$

A 2.5-inch hard disk drive is put in practical use!

Fy1995 ～ 2001 75million$Inside

The View Point

Small and Mass: HDDSmall and Mass: HDD

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1. Solar Cell, wind power・Preeminent

・ 1981

2. Hard Disk Drive(HDD)

・Convenience ・ 1995

3. ECO-CUTE

・ hot water・ All ectrification linkage

・ 1984

4. Blu-Lay 　・ Improvement in 　　　 performance 　・ Global standard

　　・ 1998

5. Chlorofluocarbon Destruction ・ CDM dealings

・ 1996

7. Standby Copy・　 Energy-saving

・ 1999

8 SCR Processing ・ Regulation orrespondence

・1997

9. Lithography

・　Improvement in a process

・ 1987

10. ThermalInsulating

・　 Energy-saving

・ 2003

11. Semiconductor Bond ・ Niche products

・ 2001

12. Insulating Material ・ Regulation

・ 2004

14.Nano-e　・　 Product

influencing

　・ 2001

13. Microscope ・　 Scientific contribution

・ 1998

” ” NEDO inside 30 product"NEDO inside 30 product" Gold,Gold, Silver, Silver, andand Bronze! Bronze! 　

6. Industrial Furnace ・　 Energy-

saving 　 ・1993

Contribution of NEDO:

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① In the super heat pump PJ, the basic concept (Lorentz cycle) of CO2 heat pump led to development of ""ECO-CUTEECO-CUTE““

② 2002, July ““Eco-Cement”,Eco-Cement”, which became No.1 of JIS for Environment Protection Item (JIS R5214).

③ The evaluation technique contributes to the deregulationthe deregulation which can make possible to the home of a fuel cell was developed, and it led to development of “En-farm” “En-farm” for the first time in thefor the first time in the world.world.

④ The development result of the fixed type storage battery serves as a basic patent a basic patent of the lithium ion battery for hybrid carshybrid cars. Moreover, it is used for evaluation of a consumer lithium a consumer lithium ion batteryion battery, and contributes to high-efficiency etc.

Inside

Conclusions &Conclusions & 　　 Feature viewsFeature views

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★ “NEDO inside products” had taken the development period of (1) about 30years, (2) 20 years, and (3)10years(1) about 30years, (2) 20 years, and (3)10years respectively. Before starting of NEDO project, basic research for about 5 ～ 7 years is performed in a university, a company, etc. in many cases. 

★Expansion for investigation will be important.Expansion for investigation will be important. As a candidate technologies: the biomass, nanotechnology/ materials, biotechnology, robot, information, manufacturing process, and MEMS (micro electro mechanical system), etc are mentioned.

★Indirectly, the development result is diverted to some other diverted to some other purpose purpose (product, technology development) in many cases. in many cases. The estimation of the sales about a ripple effectsales about a ripple effect, and incorporating in cost effectivenessincorporating in cost effectiveness becomes a future subject.

Inside

Thank　you　for　your　kind　attention.

yamashitamsr@nedo.go.jp

http://www.nedo.go.jp

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The calculation method of future accumulation 　 sales forecasting

1) Favorable sales Or replacement etc.

2) large sales in the future 3) a product life is short or cannot expect sales easily

Concrete example: Wind power generation, ECO CUTE, a component, energy saving, chlorofluocarbon destruction, SCR, adhesives, a fuel cell

Concrete example: Photovoltaics, a storage battery, a photocatalyst, water business, coal relation

Concrete example: An electron, biotechnology, machine allied products nano-e, blue lei, and highly efficient industrial furnace

2010 2010 2010 202020202020