Regional sustainable energy management

Prof. Dr. László DinyaKÁROLY RÓBERT COLLEGE –

GYÖNGYÖS22.03.2012

Agenda

1. Regional challenges and the KRC

2. Complexity of challenges

3. The „bottom-up” approach

4. Experiences

1. „Károly Róbert College” (KRC)„KRC” = Knowledge and Research Company

Gyöngyös

„As a knowledge center of the Northern Hungarian EU-region the KRC provides its knowledge services focusing on the green

economy.”

One of our main tasks: how to implement a sustainable region?

The challenge:intensity of multiple

risks for EU-regions until 2020

Indicators:1.Globalisation challenge2. Demography trends3. Climate change 4. Energy vulnerability

Cumulated number of challenges

Our logical framework

ECOLOGY

SOCIETY

ECONOMY

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

TOP-10 CHALLENGES

SUSTAINABLE MICRO-REGIONS

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY MANAGEMENT

GLOBAL COMPLEXITY

LOCAL COMPLEXITY

No. 1. = ENERGY

GLO

BA

LLO

CA

L

BOTTOM-UP

LEVE

LLE

VEL

2. Challenges: horizontal and vertical complexities

The global context: our top 10 problems for the next 50 years

IT IS NOT A SIMPLE

CHECK-LIST = IT IS A

RANKINGAND A

COMPLEX SYSTEM!

Source: R. Smalley, 2004

The „horizontal” complexity: „TOP -10” challenges of sustainable development!

1. Energy

2. Water3. Food 4. Environment

5. Poverty6. Violence, war7. Health8. Education9. Democracy10. Demography

Complexity of challenges:(Dinya L., 2007)

Energy

PovertyEnvironment

WaterFood

ViolenceHealth

DemographyDemocracy

Education

R. Smalley, 2004.

Nº-1: the „terawatt challenge”(after R. Smalley, 2011)

• Today : 7 billion people = 14,0 TW energy demand (1 TW = 1000 GW = 1000 Matra Power Plant)

– 1,5 billion people = in developed countries– 40% has no access to energy

• 2050: 10 billion people consuming energy at the level of developed today = 60 TW demand! = If we’d start every day with one new 1000 MW

power plant (based on RES!) – we’d have 10 TWsurplus in 27 years! (+ 46 TW = until 2135)

E2000 = 10 ÷ 1 (!)

EROI1900 = 100 ÷ 1 (!)

E? = 3 ÷ 1 (!)

Emerging importance of the EROI !

That’s why energy has the 1-st place in ranking

of challenges!

In the lack of complex answers:we are all

travelers of the Titanic!

Statistics of the Titanic:Ratio of survivors:

1-st class = 65%3-rd class = 25%!

…but everything is discussed:

• Recent position of:– our „ship”– the „iceberg” (= the accident)

• The dynamics of our „ship”:– its speed – and its direction

• The size of the „iceberg”• The robustness of our „ship”• And the consequences of a possible „accident”

…many pros and cons – mixed information and interests!

Who is right?? Everybody!!! But just

from their special point of view…

Different points of view!

Ministry of Economy: the „flagship” of our energy system!

Greenpeace:the biggest

threat for the environment!

Citizens in that region: our biggest employer!

RES-lobby: they take the money from us!

You’ll get a totally different meaning putting the things into

different context…

„TO BE, OR NOT TO BE?”(Shakespeare: Hamlet, III. scene)

„…that is the question!” (?)

Sustainable development

Green economy

Eco-energetic projects

„Satisfying present needs without limiting the needs

of future generations "

„Energy management based on principles of

sustainability”

„RES-based energy production”

Sustainable energy management

„Production and services in a

sustainable way”

„Vertical”complexity

A VILÁG ENERGIAFOGYASZTÁSA 2060-IG

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(Exa

joul

e/ye

ar)

egyéb

ár-apály energia

napenergiaúj biomassza

szélenergia

vízenergia

hagyományos biomassza

atomenergia

földgázolaj

szén

Energy consumption of the world – the long-term global „energy-mix”

other

tidal

solar

new biomass

wind

water

traditional biomass

nuclear

gas

oil

coal

http://www.gre-ag.com/en_solarenergie.php

RES~25%

RES~70%

Geot

herm

Wat

er

Solar

Wind

Infrastr

u cture

Logistical mix

Storag e

Smart grid

Consuming

Transpo rt

ProductionSo

cial Legal

Econ

omic

Economy

Societ y

Ecolo

g y

Renewable sources

Foss

ileso

urce

s

„Rules of the game”

Integrated interests

Energy system

Ener

gy e

ffici

ency

GasNuclear

Oil

Coal

Bio

mas

sza

Bio

mas

s

Complex system of sustainable energy management(L. Dinya, 2007)

„Achievable among structural barriers(food, feed, etc…"

Energetic potentialsTheoretic potential

Conversion potential

Technical potential

Economic potential

„Physically available amount of

energy"„Achievable by our present

technologies ”

„Profitably useable potential

of energy”

„Achievable potential taking account social –ecological criteria too”

Sustainable potential

Theoretic potential

Sustainable RES-potential of Hungary ~ 16% of the theoretical one (today!)

Innovation „bottle-neck”? The „soft” innovations

PRODUCT INNOVATIONS

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS

MARKET INNOVATIONS!

SYTEM INNOVATIONS!

Föld

hVízN

ap

Szél

Infra

struk

túra

Logisztikai mix

TárolásOsztott h

álózat

Fogyasztás

Szállítás

Termelés

Társ

adal

mi

Jogi

Gaz

dasá

gi

Primer termel k

Szekunder

termel k

Fogyaszt

ók

Megújuló források

Kim

erü

forrá

sok

„Játékszabályok”

Integrált érdekeltek

Energiarendszer

Ener

giat

akar

ékos

ság

Sustainable energy management

FöldgázNukleáris

Olaj

Szén

Bio

mas

sza

Bio

mas

sza

Szaporítóanyag biztosítás

Faaprítékgyártás

Értékesítés, piacbiztosítás

Folyamatos innovációk

Tudásszolgál-tatások

Források mobilizálása

Integrált energia-ültetvények

Bioenergy business model

After J. Schumpeter Dinya L., 2007

SUCCESS!Sustainable

micro-regions!

3. The „bottom-up” approach: sustainable energy

management inside the sustainable micro-region

Harmonization of different strategic levels

EU-level: f.e. European Super Smart Grid 2050!

Nation-level: f.e. Energy Vision of Hungary 2030!

Local level: sustainable micro-regions 2020?

The increasing

energy dependency

of the EU

50%

70%

The European „Super Smart Grid” – SSG - 2050

Linking a 100% renewable power sector with a smart grid in Europe and North Africa!

Energy vision of EU

Official energy vision of Hungary: 2030

Stimulation of economy

Rural development

Education, employment

Ecological criteria

Social criteria

Sup

ply

secu

rity

Com

petit

iven

ess

Sus

tain

abili

ty

Rules

Emerging new priorities…1. Implementation of the „2000 watt” society!• Reasons:

– The average level of the global energetic capacity today (~14 TW/~7 billion people = 2000 watt/capita)

– This would be the „fair share” for poor countries and for rich ones too…

– More and more developed countries have selected this vision already!

• Hungary is the society of „3780 watt” today (= 1192 PJ/year energy consumption by 10 million people) having min. 40% saving potential in energy efficiency: energy production = 10% + consuming = 30%

Hungary: 3.780 watt/capita

General objective: the 2.000 watt society until 2040?

= 40% decrease?

2. Achieving the maximum possible level of energy independence!

• Reasons:– The cheap fossile energy based economy will

be finished very soon – „sky-rocketing” energy prices are coming up!

– Former global supply chains will be collapsing – local RES-energy based smart grids will be necessary!

• Hungary’s import energy dependency is 61,5%and its energy supply is concentrated into few channels – long term national security is questionable! We have to prepare to the European SSG until 2030.

3. Taking into account sustainability criteria at the energy strategic calculations!

• Reasons:– The GDP has no connections to the real-economy – it

is an artificial and manipulated parameter of the unsustainable growth.

– Better to use the real limits of growth – like natural sources potentials, HDI, NEW, etc…

• Hungary’s main priority could be the increase of the national EROI by increasing technological efficiency as much as possible!

(EROI = Energy output / energy input - the world average = 10 / 1 and decreasing, Hungary: 12 / 1, the minimum level of social sustainability: 3…5 / 1!)

The possible Hungarian way until 2040

Total primery energy supply

Home primary energy production

Home RES productionHome fossile energy

productionHome clear fossile

energy productionHome non-clear fossile

energy productionImported energyCumulated energy saving

by conversionCumulated energy saving

by consumption

The "2000 Watt" society = 630 PJ/year

Home production based energy-mix = 300 + 330 PJ

Max. utilized home RES-potential = 300 PJ/year

Min. possible home fossile production = 330 PJ/year

Home fossile production based on clear technologies = 330 PJ/year

Elimination of non-clear home fossile production

Achieving energy independency = 0%

Achieving conversion efficiency of 80% (today: 70%)

Achieving consumption efficiency of 73% (today: 44%)

Energy strategy of Hungary 2010-2040

-400-200

0200400600800

100012001400

2010 2020 2030 2040

Time

PJ/y

ear

Indicators of critical importance

Energy strategy of Hungary 2010-2040

-400-200

0200400600800

100012001400

2010 2020 2030 2040Time

PJ/y

ear

Total primery energy supply

Home primery energy production

Home RES production

Home fossile energy production

Home clear fossile energyproductionHome non-clear fossile energyproductionImported energy

Cumulated energy saving byconversionCumulated energy saving byconsumption

Main pillars of sustainability:• community= human/culture/networks/demographic

• economy= production/services/markets/networks

• infrastructure= ENERGY/water/transport/information

• public services= education/social/safety/government

• environment= sources/emissions/processes/ecology

„Sustainable micro-region”pilot-project in Northern

Hungary

Containing appr. 20 projects – including the

SEM-strategy!

Harmonization with regional sustainability

1. Sustainable community

4. Sustainable public services

2. Sustainable local economy

3. Sustainable infrastructure

5. Sustainable environment

SUSTAIN-ABLE MICRO-

REGION

Human capital „Culture” Demography NetworksEnergy supply

Water-sewage

Transport

Information

„Sources”

„Recipients” Processes

Production

Services

Markets

Employment

Administration

Education

Healthcare

Public order

Landscape

Model of the sustainable micro-region (L. Dinya , 2011)

Regional strategy based on coordinated projects

Already running projects

Future necessary projects

Advantages of coordination:

• synergy among the projects

• involving the running projects

5,86,6

7,37,47,7

8,49,19,29,3

9,910,710,811,1

11,712,3

13,713,8

14,214,7

15,5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

2.1. Production (energy, industry, agrobusiness)3.1. Energy supply

5.1. Natural resources2.4. Local employment

1.1. Human capital3.2. Water and sewage system, waste

4.2. Health and social care4.3. Education

2.3. Local markets 2.2. Business services

5.3. Sustainbility processes1.2. Culture, cooperation

3.3. Transport network4.4. Public order

1.3. Demographic pressures5.2. Natural recipients

4.1. Public administration5.4. Landscape

3.4. Information network (Internet, cabel TV)1.4. Civil organisations

IMPORTANCE (1…20)

Ranking the sustainability subtopics (L. Dinya, 2011, n = 33 in two focus-groups)

Sustainability alternatives for a micro-region (L. Dinya, 2011)

1,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,0

1.1. H

uman

capit

al

1.2. C

ulture

, coo

perat

ion

1.3. D

emog

raphic

pres

sures

1.4. C

ivil or

ganis

ation

s

2.1. P

roduc

tion (

energ

y, ind

ustry

, agro

busin

ess)

2.2. B

usine

ss se

rvice

s

2.3. L

ocal

markets

2.4. L

ocal

emplo

ymen

t

3.1. E

nergy

supp

ly

3.2. W

ater a

nd se

wage s

ystem

, was

te

3.3. T

ransp

ort ne

twork

3.4. In

formati

on ne

twork

(Inter

net, c

abel

TV)

4.1. P

ublic

admini

strati

on

4.2. H

ealth

and s

ocial

care

4.3. E

duca

tion

4.4. P

ublic

orde

r

5.1. N

atural

reso

urces

5.2. N

atural

recip

ients

5.3. S

ustai

nbilit

y proc

esse

s

5.4. L

ands

cape

SUST

AIN

AB

ILIT

Y LE

VEL

PRESENT SITUATION (2,94) ACTIVE VISION (3,91) PASSIVE VISION (2,32)

The strategic portfolio - as starting points

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

IMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT

WEA

KN

ESS

S

TREN

GTH

„RESERVES”„BIG POTENTIALS”

„SOLVABLES”„CRITICAL FIELDS”

HUMAN CAPITAL

DEMOGRAPHY CIVIL NETWORKS

PRODUCTION

EMPLOYMENT

ENERGY SUPPLY

TRANSPORT

INFORM. INFRA.ADMINISTRATION

RESOURCES

RECIPIENTS

LANDSCAPE

„NEUTRAL”

Sustainable energy management action plan in the sustainability strategy of a given micro-region

SMRSEM

SOCIETY ECONOMY INFRASTR. PUBL.SERVICES ENVIRONMENT

RES

FOSS

ILE

SYST

EMEF

FIC

.R

ULE

SSH

-S

ENHU NG CU DE EM PR SE MA WW TR IN ED HS PA SA SO RE PR LABMWA

GEWI

SOCOOIGANUINSG

STLM

PRTRCOMASOLEECVREN

Forming network of sustainable micro-regions in Hungary

4. Experiences• The methodology is functioning well:

– In the multilateral social communication– In identifying differentiation of micro-regions– In establishing the starting points of local complex

strategies for sustainability– In coordination of actions using the synergy

• Energy supply is always among the most important topics!

• Regional sustainable energy management should be planned in the wider context of local sustainability!

• A knowledge /consulting centre is necessary!

Thank you for the attention!