terje andersen / gavin astin 29 september 2011 assessment of measures potential new measures, or...

Terje Andersen / Gavin Astin 29 September 2011

Assessment of measures

Potential new measures, or extended scope of existing measures

Freight train derailment risk model29 September 2011

Agenda

2

1. Background

2. Assessment Methodology

3. Measure Effectiveness


Measures Identification

Consultation with railway industry.

Network statements.

Internet research.

Additional input:- NSAs.- Suppliers.

3

Country RUs / Wagon Owner

IMs Country RUs / Wagon Owner

IMs

Austria Yes Yes Luxembourg Yes

Belgium Yes Macedonia

Bulgaria Yes Netherlands Yes

CER Yes Yes Norway Yes Yes

Croatia Yes Poland Yes

Czech Republic Yes Portugal Yes

Denmark Yes Yes Romania

Estonia Slovakia Yes Yes

Finland Yes Yes Slovenia Yes

France Yes Spain Yes

Germany Yes Sweden Yes

Greece Switzerland Yes Yes

Hungary Yes Turkey

Ireland UIP Yes

Italy UNIFE Yes Yes

Japan United Kingdom Yes Yes

Latvia Yes Yes United States Yes Yes

Lithuania Yes Yes


4

Some Background and Novel Approaches

Consultation:- More than 60 measures in our database.- In addition, many 100s / 1000s of national rules, company standards etc.- Different approaches in Member States, ranging from reliance on organisational measures

through to fully integrated wayside detectors and continuous monitoring.

Some extracts:- Balance on wagons to help identify loading errors.- Heat sensitive paints to help diagnose hot axle box conditions.- Registered loading inspectors / personnel.- Harmless infrastructure.

Important longer term considerations:- Data and information sharing.- Telematics / wagon identification.

Industry challenge is to find common ground for harmonisation amongst these different approaches.


5

Existing preventive measures to reduce Infrastructure caused derailments (1)

Improved inspection routines:- Timely maintenance follow-up of inspection results.

Upgrade weak infrastructure to match present axle loads:- Freight only lines are today used for loading conditions far exceeding their design standard.

Stricter and more harmonised track geometry requirements to account for international traffic.

Move signals which may show stop aspect away from track sections with geometry not suitable for low speed braking or acceleration, or adjust track geometry to train operating conditions. Examples: - Avoid signals that can show stop aspect behind small radius curves with high cant.- Alternatively redesign track geometry or install check rails.


6

Excessive track twist Picture shows a train on a track in UK that

caused derailment due to excessive track twist.

Track twist restriction area by draft TSI for Conventional Rail Infrastructure for curves with R< 420 m.


7

Existing preventive measures to reduce Infrastructure caused derailments (2)

Greasing of track curves.

Interlocking of points to avoid operation while occupied by rolling stock:- Mainly at stations and shunting yards.

Increased separation of freight and passenger traffic along different lines and adjustment of track geometry design to most frequent traffic type.

Apply ”maintenance free” superstructure design e.g. fixed track/slab track.


8

Existing preventive measures to reduce Rolling stock related derailments

Measures to avoid Hot Axle Box derailments:- Wheel load impact detectors to detect faulty wheels giving excessive vibration to bearing. - Improve bearing design by applying more vibration tolerant components in bearing.- Track installed detector installations to detect faulty bearings or hot axle boxes:

- Hot axle box detectors. - Bearing acoustic diagnostic.

Measures to avoid axle shaft fatigue ruptures: - Improved design standards. - Appropriate material selection.- Fault free surface corrosion protection. - Improved in service inspection in order to detect incipient failures.

Appropriate greasing of bogie pivots and side supports.

Apply improved suspension design, e.g.. parabolic blade springs instead of trapezoidal blade springs.


9

Rolling stock measures towards wheels and axles Exchange brass roller bearings with polyamide roller

cages.

Evaluate use of composite wheels vs monoblock wheels.

European Visual Inspection Catalogue for Wheelsets


10

Existing preventive measures to reduce Operational related derailments

Training of operational staff of all types.

Proper inspection, testing and check of wagons, train prior to departure: - Improved tools to ensure quality of these activities, e.g. check lists.

Improved tools to detect overloading, skew loading and/or insufficient fastened load:- Weighing devices at terminal or along track. - Visual balances on wagons.

ATP-system to avoid SPADs and excessive speed across deviated points/turnouts.


11

Consequence Mitigation Measures

Category: M# Measures and motivation: M-1 Derailment detection detectors (valves) to avoid derailed wagons from being

dragged along for long distances. M-2 Equip tank wagons with impact shield to protect tank against penetration (US-

requirement also used in Sweden). M-3 Install emergency warning lights on locomotive to warn train on neighbouring track

going in opposite direction.

Rolling stock

M-4 Attach mechanical guides at the bogie structure or on wagon support at appropriate position to ensure that a derailed wagon most likely is kept along the track and does not overturn or become hit by other wagons.

M-5 Existing requirement for safety rails (guard rails) at bridges and in tunnels. M-6 Battering rams in front of safety critical pillar supports of roof structures and

overbridges in order to prevent derailed rolling stock damaging such safety critical structures.

M-7 Installation of dragging object and derailment detectors. The detector will detect both dragging objects and derailments.

M-8 Installation of deviation points leading to a safe derailment place in strongly descending tracks from marshalling yards and train formation stations.

Infrastructure

M-9 Radio or cell phone communication installations like GSM-R in order to transfer emergency stop orders to trains.

M-10 Separate passenger and freight traffic to separate lines to a larger degree (which is also EU-policy).

M-11 Restrictions on freight traffic in general or hazardous materials transport in special through certain busy passenger terminals and/or underground stations to restrict traffic and limit the consequences of a derailment.

M-12 Develop and apply a checklist for dangerous goods transport as the Swiss checklist for dangerous goods transport by freight trains.

Operational

M-13 Requirement for activating of warning lights in driving end of train.


Agenda

12

1. Background




Assessment Methodology

We have used qualitative basis for assessment if the following applies:- They generally offer only small benefit in comparison with other measures, and / or;- They form part of a suite or measures that can be integrated together (for example a number

of measures identified associated with rolling stock maintenance can be integrated into a single measure), and / or;

- There is insufficient data to enable a more detailed assessment and therefore there would be significant uncertainty in the results.

Otherwise, measures are assessed on a quantified basis.

Some measures are outside of the project scope and have not been considered.

Accident causes and preventive measures that are already being addressed by other projects, such as (such as the Euroaxles project addressing axle shaft fractures) are also not considered.

13


14

Measures Assessed using a Qualitative ApproachMeasure Number

Description Time Category

P-9 Interlocking of points operation while track is occupied. Medium

P-20 Ultrasonic Rail Inspection Short

P-22 EU-wide intervention/action limits for track twist Medium

P-23 EU-wide intervention/action limits for track gauge variations Medium

P-24 EU-wide intervention/action limits for cant variations Medium

P-25 EU-wide intervention/action limits for height variations and cyclic tops Medium

P-34 Secure brake gear under frame Medium

P-35 Regular greasing and checks of rolling stock buffers. Short

P-36

Wheel set integrity inspection (ultrasonic) programs. Short

P-39 Double check and signing of safety-classified maintenance operations Short

P-40 Qualified and registered person responsible for loading Medium

P-41 Locomotive and first wagons of long freight trains in brake position G Short

P-42 Limitations on use of brake action in difficult track geometry Short

P-43 Dynamic brake test on the route Medium

P-46 Not allowing traffic controllers and drivers to override detector alarms Short

P-47 Wagons equipped with a balance to detect overload in visual inspection. Medium

F-2 Awareness program and improved maintenance for Rolling Stock Short


15

Measures Assessed using a Quantified ApproachMeasure Number

Description Time Category

P-1 Check rail in sharp curves Medium

P-2 Track lubrication Medium

P-10 P-12

Hot axle box (hot bearing) detectors Hot wheel and hot brake detectors

Medium

P-11 Acoustic bearing monitoring equipment Medium

P-13 Wheel load and wheel impact load detectors / weighing Medium

P-15 Bogie performance monitoring / Bogie lateral instability detection (bogie hunting) Medium

P-16 Wheel profile measurement system / Wheel profile monitoring unit Medium

P-18 P-21

Sufficient availability of maintenance resources (for Infrastructure maintenance) Track geometry measurement of all tracks

Short

P-19 Clearance of obstructions from flange groove (particularly at level crossings) Short

P-28 Replace metal roller cages in axle bearings by polyamide roller cages. Medium

F-6 Anti-lock devices Medium

F-7 Sliding wheel detectors Medium

M-1 Derailment Detection applied to; All freight trains; DG wagons; RID proposed scope

Medium


Quantified Assessment Parameters

Considering Sliding Wheel Detectors, we identified about 8 derailments (handbrakes left on, etc.) that may be detected by these devices. (Existing controls are manual inspection, local rules and solutions).

Is the benefit (potentially 8 avoided derailments) a good use of finite resources?

On the one hand we need to consider the benefit and on the other the resources to secure that benefit.

16


Quantifying these Benefits (avoided Derailments)

Each derailment has an impact in terms of: Potential loss of life; Operational disruption; rack damage; Wagon damage; Environmental events (contamination).

17

Scenario Average Km Cost (E/km) # wagons Cost/wagon (E/wagon) Hours disruption Cost/hour (E/hour)Immediate severe, DG involvement 0.5 427746 7 23526 50 16040Not immediate severe, DG involvement 5 160405 7 23526 50 16040Immediate severe, no DG involvement 0.5 427746 7 12832 50 16040Not immediate severe, no DG involvement 5 160405 7 12832 50 16040Not severe derailment, safe stop 0.5 32081 2 5347 12 8020

Track Damage Wagon Damage Disruption Costs

In addition, the cost model assigns monetised benefits associated with the value of preventing a fatality or injury (€1.5 million & €200 k respectively).

Environmental contamination costs about €1,000,000 per event.

Therefore, preventing an immediately severe DG derailment that leads to loss of containment and three lives has a cost (at today’s values) of:- (3 * €1,500,000) + 0.5 * (€427,746) + 7 * (€23,256) + 50 * (€16,040) + €1,000,000 =

€6,678,665.


Quantifying the Costs

To our knowledge few Sliding Wheel Detectors installed installation (in Europe).

Would require installation at major freight origin points – we estimated about 1,300 units would provide good coverage.

Established the cost to purchase and maintain over measure lifetime.

Is the investment worthwhile?

18


Some Data

19

Measure Purchase / Installation Costs

Annual Maintenance Cost

Max Potential Benefit

Measure Effectiveness / Other Considerations

Net benefit

P-1: Check Rail

€500 / metre.

Total installation cost for 1,615 km = €807.5 million

Additional maintenance cost of €5 / metre.

Annual additional maintenance cost €8 million

25 avoided derailments

Assumed 90% effective where fitted.

23 avoided derailments (6 HSD, 17 LSD)

P-2: Track Lubrication

€3250 / installation.

Total installation cost for 14,450 units = €47 million

€3000 / installation (lubricant top-up)

Annual additional maintenance cost €43 million


Assumed 50% effective

13 avoided derailments (10 LSD, 3 HSD)

P-10 & P-12: HABD/HWD

€250k / installation

Total installation cost for 3,530 €882.5 million

Approx. 30 hours per year (supplier info)

Annual additional maintenance cost €5.3 million


60 * 90% * 99% (99% being the availability figures for devices of this type)

53 avoided derailments (12 LSD, 41 HSD)


Agenda

20

1. Background




Our Assessment of Derailment Risk Reduction Potential

21

A more comprehensive list of measures and benefits assessment is provided in our B2 report.

Relates to damage reduction potential, not cost.

MeasureAvoided Fatalities

Avoided Track Damage (km)

Avoided Wagon Damage (number)

Avoided Operation

Disruption (hrs)

Avoided Environmental

EventsDerails

prevented

P1-Check Rail 0.16 35 109 751 3 23P2-Track Lubrication 0.09 20 61 422 2 13P10&12-HABD/HWD 0.47 70 270 1889 8 53P11-BAM 0.41 63 240 1673 7 47P13-WLID/WIM 0.59 104 366 2542 10 74P15-Bogie Hunting Detector 0.29 63 199 1377 5 42P16-Wheel Profile 0.14 30 95 657 2 20P18-Track Geometry 0.36 85 280 1941 7 58P19-Clearance Flange Groove 0.04 6 23 164 1 4.5P28-Roller Cages 0.29 44 169 1180 6 33F6-Anti Lock Device 0.17 28 99 693 3 20F7-Sliding Wheel Detector 0.06 10 35 241 1 7

Severe derailments

saved

M1a-Derail Det All Freight 0.96 341 379 2881 17 76M1a-Derail Det All DG 0.85 45 50 380 4 10

M1a-Derail Det RID 0.12 9 10 76 1 2

Annual Benefits


Discussion

Assessment relates to the potential for improvement, given the existing status of measures deployed to prevent derailments.

Biggest potential for improvement relates to addressing track geometry defects, improving hot axle box detection and wheel defects.

Other areas we will consider on a qualitative basis are rolling stock maintenance.

However measures that do not have such a large benefit can still be efficient if they are low cost.

22


23

End of Session - Any Questions


24

Safeguarding life, property and the environment

www.dnv.com

terje andersen / gavin astin 29 september 2011 assessment of measures potential new measures, or...

Documents

organisational measures

existing preventive

rolling stock measures

track sections

greasing of track curves

measure effectiveness

excessive track twist

fixed trackslab track