the rechargeable battery market and main trends 2011-2020 · 2019-07-18 · trends of the global...
TRANSCRIPT
Current Status and Future Trends for
the Lithium-ion Battery Market
Focus on Power Tools, Robotics and Cordless Devices
AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOTJuly 11th, 2019
London
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2019• The Li-ion battery market – Focus on power tools• Li-ion Battery market Forecasts
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
OVERVIEW
2Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019
(1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer
69 75 81
12.513
14
2016 2017 2018 (Est.)
Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies)
Expected CAGR 18-30 (%)
+8%
~ +2-3 %
+7-9%
8288
(1)
Primary
Rechargeable
95
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2018
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
164 MPortable PCs
155 M Tablets
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2018
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
2.6
< 0,15
0
1
2
3
2000 2018
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
7 000
> 340 000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
2000 2018
Ton
s
Tons of cathode active materials
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 3
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000M
Wh
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2018Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 4
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2018
37,5
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
90
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level1
9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
90
20
05
20
14
20
16
20
18
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…
PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,
POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
INDUSTRIAL• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others
(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EVOTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, …
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 5
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS
6
(1) Cell levelOthers: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019
>160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018
+24 % per year in Volume
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
20
002
001
20
022
003
20
042
005
20
062
007
20
082
009
20
102
011
20
122
013
20
142
015
20
162
017
20
18
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2018
Others
Industrial, ESS
Auto, E-busChina
Auto, e-bus Excl.China
Electronicdevices
Phones17%
Portable PC66%
Portable Electronics
17%
2000: < 2GWh
2018: 160 GWh
Electronic devices
20%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
20%
Auto, E-bus China44%
Industrial, ESS5%
Others11%
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2018: US $ +80 BILLION
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000EV, E-Bus
Portable
SLI
Others
ESS
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Lead Acid LIB Others
Others
ESS
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
US $ 27
Billion for
“other”
applications
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 7
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
2018-2030
Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-bookCellular Phones, Smart-phonesTabletsPower BankCamcordersCordless Tools, Gardening toolsDigital CameraGames, MP3Cordless PhonesShavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars, ToysDronesHoverboardE-bikesPower toolsSecurity lightingVehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-buses, Tram, Industrial motive (forklift)Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom)MedicalEnergy Storage (Small / large)
Applications covered Parameters analysis
8
Main segment trends
Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)
Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,
2018 -2030 Forecasts
OEM strategies and positions
Main drivers & limiters
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
9
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r
Li-Pouch Li-ion Pr
Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 18-30: + 4%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
18
20
20
20
25
20
30
MW
h
Other PortableElectronics
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
0.08 0.2 0.40.9
1.5
0.30.4
0.8
2.5
6.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
20
10
20
15
20
18
20
20
20
25
20
30
Mill
ion
car
s
HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS
10HEV: 1kWh battery / car
HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured
11.7
3.6
6.4
0.5
0.9
2.9
7.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
10
20
15
20
18
20
20
20
25
20
30
kWh
/ P
ack
Mill
ion
car
s
EV manufactured
1.1 2.2 3.45.2
13.8
28.8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
10
20
15
20
18
20
20
20
25
20
30
% L
i-io
n H
EV
Mill
ion
car
s
0,7
1,3
7,5
PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car
1,5
6,5
13,8
China
World Excl.China
World Excl.China
China
World Excl.China
Realistic Scenario
3,4
2,6
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV
2030 FORECASTS (REALISTIC SCENARIO)
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery
needs (MWh)
CAGR 2015-2030: +26%
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery
needs (M$)
CAGR 2015-2030: +18%
11
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
M W
h
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-busE-bus excl. China
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
M $
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV
EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
E-Bus excl. China
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL1)
Application details US$ 25 Billion in 2017 (1)
12
E-Bikes13% Power Tools
8%
Forklift 13%
Other Motive 1%
Telecom 13%
UPS 12%
ESS 12%
Others 28%
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 116
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
POWER TOOLS MARKET 2000-2030
13Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019
75
85
100
125
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mill
ion
s U
nit
s
Power Tools market worldwide, in volume, 2000-2030
Number Of Power tools Gardening Tools
In Million units 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bosch 8,8 9,2 9,5 10 10 10,7 11 10,5
B&D 9,5 9 9,5 9,75 10 11,3 12,5 14,5
TTI 8 8,5 9 9,75 12 14,5 17 19,5
Makita 7 7,5 8 8 8,5 7,8 7 6,1
Metabo 4,2 4,2 4 4 4 4,3 5 5
HITACHI 2,5 2,4 2,2 2 2 2 1,5 0,8
HILTI 2 2 2 2 2 2,2 2,5 3
PANASONIC 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,5 0,4
OTHERS 18 19 20 20 21 21,2 23 25,2
TOTAL 60,6 62,3 64,7 66 70 74,6 80 85
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
14
POWER TOOLSLIB: FROM US$ 2 BILLION IN 2018 TO 3,5 B IN 20301 – CAGR15-30: +7%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Li-ion
NICd
Market 2017-2025 (US $, Million) – CAGR:+5% LIB Main drivers
Higher voltage
NiCd substitution
NiCd regulation
Cordless power tools & gardening tools market increase (+4% per year)
Higher energy density, less weight
LIB main Limiters
LIB average sales price
Reliability
High rate discharge
Fast charge
Life time
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Important characteristic:
1- Higher power & capacity
2-Fast recharge
2012 ASP NiCd: 350 $/kWh
2012 ASP LIB: 550 $/kWh
Average Capacity: 60 Wh
Battery needs
Most valuable improvements
1- Price decrease
2- Fast charge
3- High rate discharge
Form factor: Cylindrical
No standardization
LIB needs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
202
6
202
8
203
0
LIB Penetration
Note: : 1- Pack level
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
202
6
202
8
203
0
LIB market (M$)
CustomersBosch
B&D
TTI
Makita
Jingding
Hilti
…
ASP1
2017:440 $/Kwh2030: 250 $/Kwh
ASP:2017: 300 $/kWh2030: 240 $/kWh
Battery 2013 by Area
>75% of the power tools are made in China
But, battery pack could be made on the end-user area (Ex: Bosch –Axeon Poland)
LIB 2020 by Area
Power tools will be made in China
Local demand in Europe, US, next to the end user to increase flexibility & Just in Time mfg.
Competitors
Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Samsung, Panasonic, Sony (> 75%)
Pack makers: AXEON (Bosch),
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
POWER TOOLS
Major criteria required
Energy density – One day working without recharge Specific project: handy screwdriver with a contactless dock for quick charging High power
Actual technology
NMC 622 & NMC 811 for the major part of the market ; LTO for special project like Hilti handy screwdriver with a contactless dock for quick charging (LTO)
Unmet needs if any
One day work without recharge – Fast charge
Market potential
18650 cells for power tools in 2018: >500 Millions US$ 2 Billion market in 2018, will double in 2025 + Gardening Tools potential
Entry barriersMarket acceptanceConvince battery mfg as well as power tools mfg.
15Sources: HILTI, PSA, AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
MEDICAL TOOLS
Major criteria required
Energy densityFast chargeHigh powerHeat resistance (for better sterilization)
Actual technology
Li-ion LFP, NMC, NCALi-ion LTO can support high temperature (sterilization process) – LFP (Stryker)
Unmet needs if any
High T°C resistance for steam sterilization, like the tools rather than using Gama sterilization.
Market potential
In the range of Million battery pack/ year (50 MWh / USD 50 Mn) – Small series for special productHigh T° resistant for sterilization (To design battery integrated in the device), High cycle life and life timeHigh T° resistant for sterilization the device and the battery together (Depuy-J&J)To replace the LTO in high temperature during the sterilization process (EasyLi)
Entry barriersTime to market 5 years (Stryker)FDA regulationNeed long term customer partnership -
16
Potential application for small medical tools
Sources: Stryker, De Soutter, Depuy-J&J, EasyLi, AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
E-BUSES (FAST CHARGE E-BUSES, E-TRAM)
Major criteria required
High power (very fast charge)High cycle life (100s cycles per day)10 to 15 years calendar life – 600 000 km - > 500 000 cycles1
Actual technology
Diesel – Most of European cities have plan to switch to full ElectricFor Electric buses: Li-ion (LFP in China), NMC outside China. (Exemple of contracts: Volvo-Saft (LFP, NCA) / Daimler-Bollore (LMP), Super Cap (PVI supply Watt system to Aéroport de Nice Shuttle). PVI was bought by RENAULT in Feb 2017
Unmet needs if any
Green TransportationLife cycle, life timeEnergy density for standard E-bus – Very fast charge for Fast charge e-buses
Market potential
RATP only (Paris) : 2/3 E-Buses in 2025 (> 3000 Bus) >10 000 e-buses in Europe – 3 GWh – US$ 0,5 BnCity E-bused to be charged at each stations
Entry barriersLong Time to marketProve that the TCO is lower thanks to higher life time
17
Power batteries using Niobium could be vey well adapted for very fast
charge e-buses (fast charged at each station)
1- 15 stations x 15 times/day x 300 days x 10years = 675 000
Sources: Daimler, Bollore, EasyLi, Hilti, PSA, AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis
AUTOBUS DATA:40 000 km/yearFrance: 25 000 Bus – 65 000 autocarsAverage age: 8 yearsLife time: 10 to 15 years>600 000 km
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
E-BUSES3 main operating modes
18Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis
1- New rules for charging buses in depot have huge cost impact
http://www.avere-france.org/Site/Article/?article_id=7407
Energy density
Life time
Charge Regulation1
Major criteria required
Energy density
Life time, cycle life
Life time, cycle life
Power, fast charge
Source: SAFT 2018
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
LTO (LI4TI5O12) DEMAND: CAGR2015-2030: +20% IN VALUE, +25% IN VOLUME
LTO demand details LTO suppliers
19
(1) 1 000 Tons production capacity / year
Assumption: Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg
LTO market shareLTO Price forecasts
2418 16 15 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20102015 2018 202020252030
$ /
kg
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
15
20
18
20
20
20
25
20
30
Ton
s o
f LT
O
Others
Renewable Energy Storage
Grid Frequency regulation
Mass Transit
Train
E-bikes
Mild HEV
POSCO ESM (Korea)Titan (Japan)BTR (China)Ishihara (Japan)Toho Titanium (Japan)Liniy Gelon (China) (1)NEI Corp. (US)UBE (Japan)Altairnano (US)Sinuo (China)Shanshan (China)Umicore (Belgium)Zhuhai Ying Tong GroupSichuan Xingneng New MaterialsTianjiao…
Today, the demand is small and mostly based on:- Toshiba : SCiB battery for e-
bikes, --motor cycles, some xEV.
- Altairnano battery used in EV, E-buses, mass transit program
- Leclanche battery for ESS (TiBox : 3.2kWh)
- Seiko use LTO batteries in Kinetic (automatic quartz) wristwatches.
- XALT launch LTO/NMC battery for e-Bus
Target priceNot sur to be achieve…
POSCO ESM34%
Titan28%Ishihara
3%
Toho Titanium2%
BTR14%
Microvast7%
Others12%
1 5004 200
32 000
Summary of outlookDemand: thanks to high power and long life time application, the LTO market will grow rapidly (+30% per year).Price: to be competitive, LTO cost have to decrease in the range of 12 to 15 $/kg. Challenging but seems to be possible thanks to scale economy.Suppliers: POSCO is leading the market and should increase production capacity. Historical competitors are Japanese (Toho Titanium, Ishihara, Titan). Lot of new comers from China (BTR, Liniy Gelong, Sinuo, Shanshan…)
50 000
12 000
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
20
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019
From 160 GWh in 2018 to >1,2 TWh CAGR 2015/2030
+20 % per year in Volume
2018: >160 GWh
2030: 1200 GWh
Electronic devices
5%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China47%
Auto, E-bus China38%
Industrial, ESS3%
Others7%
CAGR 15/30(Optimistic)
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2030
Others
Industrial, ESS
Auto, E-bus China
Auto, e-bus Excl.China
Electronic devices
14%
18%
24%
29%
4%
Electronic devices
20%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
20%
Auto, E-bus China44%
Industrial, ESS5%
Others11%
100 GWh
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION
21
China – 60%USA – 2%
EU -<1%
Japan – 17%
Korea – 15%
PanasonicNECMaxellPEVEYUASA
SAFTFIAMM
BOLLORE
SAMSUNGLGSKIKokam
CATLBYD
Optinum NanoHefei Guoxuan
BAKLISHEN
FARASISEVE
Wanxiang (A123)Coslight
LGSAMSUNG
PANASONIC…
LGJohnson-Controls
EnersysSAFT
…TESLA
SAMSUNGLG
Others* – 5%
Source: AVICENNE 2019
* OTHERS: Malaysia mostly
$ 5 Bn35 GWh2019
$ 562 M3-5 GWh2018
$ 5 Bn34 GWh2028
$ 360 M2-3 GWh2018
$ 5 Bn32 GWh2023
122 162
191
247 297
350
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pro
du
ctio
n R
atio
(%
)
Pro
d. C
apac
ity
MW
h
Production Capacity
Demand
Production Ratio
790 M$7,5 GWh2020
$ 282 M14 GWh2022
25 GWhSolid State ?2024-2025
EUROPE
European market demand
~100 GWh in 2025
$ 1 Bn? 32 GWhNorway2025 ?
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN EUROPE
22
> 125 GWh in 2023
Source: BNEF, Roland Berger, Battery manufacturer annoncements, Avicenne 2019
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
BATTERY DEMAND/BATTERY CAPACITY
IN EUROPE IN 2025
23
Battery demand will reach ~100 GWh in 2025 (Some analyst forecast 4 times this amount)
Source: AVICENNE Analysis
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GW
h
Annonced Production Capacity Not yet announced AVICENNE SAFT-TOTAL Roland Berger
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
TAKEAWAYS
24
Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard……
Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications
In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV
P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 19 B$ market in 2017 - 36 B$ in 2020 & 69 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2017: US$6 Billion for xEV and US$ 5 Billion for xE-Buses)
EV expectations attract large Chemical companies
New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards
HEV will account for 3% of the auto sales in 2020
P-HEV & EV for 2% to 3% by 2020
Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25
Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid in value from 2018.
A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries
New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years
Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years
ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
WORLDWIDE 2000-2025
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MW
h
Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%)LIB for xEV (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%)
25B$30B$
65 B$
110 B$
>150 B$
210 GWh
325 GWh
730 GWh
> 1 000 GWh
20
9
52
(CAGR 2015-2025)
69
(Pack level) 3
43B$
440 GWh
Battery Market 2015-2025 - CAGR = +9% / Li-ion>+13%
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on
Power Tools
July 11th, 2019London
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 44 55 19 90
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
25