T urkey’s New Geopolitics: From the Balkans to Western China

Graham E. Fuller and Ian 0. Lesser

Boulder: Westview Press, 1994. 197 pages, index, $49 hardcover (ISBN 0-8133-8659-4), $15.85 pa- perback (ISBN 0-8133-8660-8).

Review by Rachel Simon, Ph.D. Princeton University

urkey’s New Geopolitics examines the characteristics of con- T temporary Turkey and assesses its future foreign policy op- tions and the implications these have on Turkey’s neighbors as well as on Europe, Central Asia (including the former Soviet Union), and the United States. The examination deals with changes within Turkey and how these trends could influence Turkish foreign relations and further developments within the entities involved.

The study originated as a RAND study in late 1990 and was formally completed in the summer of 1992, but the chapters have been updated and revised before publication. “The impetus for the study came from the identification of internal and external trends that, taken together, suggested a growing role for Turkey and a growing need to understand the implications for regional stability and US . policy” (p. xiii). Four RAND specialists, whose expertise is on Turkey, collaborated in this book. All of them had previous experience with Turkish affairs, some through their roles in the American foreign and intelligence services. The book includes a forward, a preface, five chapters, short notes about the book and the

authors, and an index. Each chapter is followed by notes with bibliographical information (mainly in English, as well as in Turk- ish and German).

The first chapter, “Turkey: Toward the Twenty-First Century” (p. 1-35) is by Paul B. Henze, who served in the U.S. embassy in Ankara and with the National Security Council. He examines political, social, and economic trends in Turkey and believes that several developments are presented in an unbalanced form in the media. Henze thinks that Islamist political elements have not gained ground in Turkey, although the role of religion in Turkish society has indeed increased. He points out to the growing force of Turkish nationalism and its implications on the policy towards the Kurds in Turkey and on foreign relations.

The second chapter, “Turkey’s New Eastern Orientation” (p. 37- 97), is by Graham E. Fuller, who served in the U.S. foreign service (including in Istanbul) and the CIA. He examines the developments in the Middle East and their implications on Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies, with special attention to the Kurdish issue and oil. He believes that Turkey’s role will increase in the Middle East and the Muslim areas-and especially Turkic regions-of the former Soviet Union.

Fuller is followed by “Bridge or Barrier? Turkey and the West after the Cold War”(p. 99-140) by Ian 0. Lesser, who was previously with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Atlan- tic Council, and International Energy Associates. The end of the Cold War has shifted Turkey’s strategic importance from its posi- tion v i s - h i s the Soviet Union to the Middle East; the shift was especially noted during the Gulf War. Contrary to the Turkishview of Turkey as a bridge between the West and the East, the West increasingly regards it as a barrier, and Lesser believes that Tur- key’s chances of strengthening its involvement in Europe remain poor.

J.F. Brown, who was the director of Radio Free Europe, writes on “Turkey: Back to the Balkans” (p. 141-162). On the background of the Ottoman legacy in the Balkans, he examines the develop- ments in the various Balkan regions and believes that these devel- opments might lead to more direct Turkish political and even military involvement in the Balkans.

Graham Fuller contributes the book’s “Conclusions: the Grow- ing Role of Turkey in the World” (p. 163-183). He believes that due to its geopolitical position and the emergence of a new “Turkic World,” Turkey’s role in the world will increase. Moreover, it is

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important for the US. to understand the Turkish vision of the developments within Turkey and its neighbors and of its role as a result of these changes.

The four RAND researchers demonstrate their current aware- ness of developments in Turkey and the world surrounding it. They think it is important to understand Turkey’s growing role in region- al and global affairs, and they emphasize that the US. and the West should be aware of Turkey’s status, domestic and foreign concerns, and possible political and military roles. At times they view domes- tic developments from a different angle than is usually presented in the media (e.g., the role of Islam in Turkish politics or the Kurdish issue) and are quite clear regarding their unfavorable attitude at times towards the media and Turkish intellectuals. Nonetheless, the inclusion of sources enables readers to check the developments independently. The book considers, in a concise way, major develop- ments in Turkey and the surrounding world with an emphasis on possible future developments. It can be an interesting and thought- provoking reading for people interested in Turkey, the Middle East, and Central Asia, including foreign-policy decision makers.

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