World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

UNFCCC Technical Workshop under the UNFCCC Technical Workshop under the Nairobi Work ProgramNairobi Work Program

Integrating Climate Risk Management and DRR Integrating Climate Risk Management and DRR StrategiesStrategies

1010--12 March 200912 March 2009Havana, CubaHavana, Cuba

By By

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

Agenda

• Hydro-meteo hazards and link to climate risk management

• How is WMO working strategically and operationally through its networks to assist its Members with the implementation of DRR and climate adaptation?– WMO DRR Programme (Since 2004)– WMO Initiative in support of climate adaptation

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural

Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Economic losses

Loss of lifeNumber ofevents

Volcano1,6%

Tsunami0,4%

Epidemic, insects13%

Wild Fires 3%

Windstorm 27%

Earthquake8%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

4%

Flood 33%

Slides 5%

Volcano1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects10%

Windstorm 15%

Earthquake16%

Drought30%

Extreme Temp.

5% Flood 10%

Tsunami1%

Wild Fires 2%

Windstorm 43%

Earthquake22%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

2%Flood 25%

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -www.em-dat.net - UniversitéCatholique de Louvain -Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

Impact of climate on sectors are linked to….

• Changing patterns of hydro-meteorological extremes– Frequency, severity and location of droughts, floods,

tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc• Accumulation of risk linked to deviations of

meteorological and hydrological conditions from normal – Variations and changes in the onset of seasons,

warmer/colder than normal seasons, changes in the rainfall amounts and patters, etc.

Changes in climate occur on all time and space scales

Can we manage our climate risks today?

Leveraging WMO networks to improve DRR and climate risk management at national level

WMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation with national development to ensure

development and availability of technical capacities at the national level.

PacificDecadal

Oscillation

NorthernAtlantic

Oscillation

UNFCCC negotiations

Research Side: 20 years of international coordination of scientific research and assessment

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)

Operational forecasting

systems

IPCC Assessments

WMO: Coordinates an Operational Global Coordination Network for Hazard Detection and Forecasting to Support

Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

Coordinated Satellite System

Global Data Processing and Forecasting System

National Meteorological

& Hydrological

Services

Global Observing System

Global Telecommunication System

WMO: Coordinates an Operational Global Coordination Network for Hazard Detection and Forecasting

Global Telecommunication SystemExchanges bulletins, forecasts, and other information

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

National Meteorological & Hydrological Services developand disseminate authoritativewarnings for the country

Media Generalpublic

Privatesector

Government and civil defence

authorities

WMO Strategic Priorities in Context of comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Framework

Underpinned by HFA

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk quantification

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems,emergency planning and response capacities

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoralplanning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather Risk Management

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

National Policies, planning and Legislation Organizational Coordination and Cooperation

21

3

National DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)Mapping NMHSs’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs

139 out of 187 Countries responded

24/5254 %

25/3474 %

10/1283 %

18/2282 %

14/1974 %

44/4892 %

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

National DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

CountryCategory

Planning & Legislation

InfrastructureObservationForecasting

Telecom.

TechnicalCooperation

&Capacities

Partnerships&

Concept of Operations

Percentage of countries

1 Need for development along all aspects-Guidance materials and best practices are also needed

12

2 Need for improvements along some aspects-Guidance materials and best practices are also needed

42

3 Self sufficient

- Need for improvements along some aspects- Guidance materials and best practices needed

26

4 Self sufficientGuidance materials and best practices needed

20

42 of the developing countries, of which 22 being LDC did not participate in the survey

1. Enabling Meteorlogical Services to provide data and analysis on

Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Hazards

to Support Risk Assessment, Early Warning Systems, Sectoral Planning

and financial markets

Number of NMHS Keeping Hazard Data Archives and Status

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Strong w

indsFlas

h flood

Thunderstorm

or lightning

Drought

River fl

ooding

Forest o

r wild

land fir

eEart

hquakes

Heat wav

e

Landsli

de or m

udslid

eHails

torm

Hazards to

aviatio

nDense

fog

Coastal fl

ooding

Tropical c

yclone

Heavy s

nowCold w

ave

Smoke, D

ust or H

azeStorm

surge

Waterborne h

azard

sTornad

o

Marine h

azards

Avalanch

e

Freezin

g rain

Airborne s

ubstance

sTsu

nami

Volcanic ev

ents

Desert l

ocust

swarm

Sandsto

rm

Data Archived Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)

• Data archived are not standardised

• 90 % of countries indicated their need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO 2006 DRR survey)

TOP CONCERNS OF MEMBERS

Hazard data and informationNeed to initiate systematic projects…

To provide guidelines for standardization of Meteorological, Hydrological and climatic-related hazards:

1. Hazard data and metadata

2. Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies

3. Capacity development and training

4. Demonstration projects in selected countries

Guidelines for Hazard data and mapping

1. Floods (Flash Floods, Riverine Floods)

2. Droughts

3. Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge

4. Other hazards (severe weather, heat waves, etc.)

5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …

IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

(IPCC, 2007)

DroughtsProject with 10

African Countries to develop climate information (downscaling, etc.)(WMO/World Bank/ Link to UNDP CRM)

WMO Climate Adaptation Initiative

Need for production of local climate information

2. Development of Coordinated Early Warning Systems with Multi-

Hazard Approach

To support Protection of lives and livelihoods

Example 3: Cuba Cyclone Early Warning

ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL

MODELS

DIFUSSION OF WARNINGS

RESPONSE ACTIONS

TV

RADIO

PHONE - FAX

INTERNET

GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE,

RESIDENTS

Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top-down warning and response mechanisms

WarningWarning

Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

WMO Approach to Assist its Members in Strengthening Their Early Warning Systems

Identification of (more) Good

Practices

Documentation of Good Practices and

learning Lessons

Development of Guidelines for EWS

implementation based on Lessons Learnt

ProjectsNational Planning and coordination

Technical Capacity

Development

Implementation of end-to-end EWS

projects

Sharing of good practices

Building Capacities and

sharing experiences and lessons’ learnt

2nd Multi Hazard Early Warning SymposiumMay 5-7, 2009 (Toulouse, France)

1. Discuss four “good practices” in early warning systems presented by a team of national experts from the countries

France Vigilance system Shanghai Emergency Preparedness SystemBangladesh Cyclone Preparedness ProgrammeCuba tropical cyclone early warning system

2. Draft the First Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation”

3. Support of Weather Risk Management and Catastrophe

Insurance Markets

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Financial Risk Transfer Markets

• Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, other value-added services

• Reliable, authoritative and timely data for contract design and settlement

• Forecasts for portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis

• Technical support and service delivery

Strategic partnerships to facilitate development at the national level

PartnersType Coordination

National / regional DRR

Implementation

Project Funding

World Bank(& GFDRR)

Development X X

ISDRCoordination X X

UNDP Development X X

OCHA, IFRC, UNICEF Humanitarian X X

FAO, WFP DevelopmentHumanitarian

X X

WHO Humanitarian X

European Commission Donor X

Current Project Mapping

Technical Capacity Development of NMHS

Comprehensive modernisation and DRR capacity development of NMHS

Pilot Projects on National EWS Partnerships & ConOps

Technical Guidelines Shanghai Multi Hazards EWS Demonstration Project

The Climate Information Challenge

WMO initiative to address the climate information challenge at the National Level….

Goal:– the development of science-based climate

information for climate risk management and adaptation to climate variability and change throughout the world to support poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services

Four Major Thrusts:• Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors

– Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies)

• Coordinated network of global and regional climate centers to faciliate provision of tools and information to national centers– Building on what is there

• Further strengthen targeted climate research (WCRP, ICSU)

• Strengthen observation networks (with GCOSS; GEO and other partners)

World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future

Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September

2009

Key Messages

• Need for a comprehensive risk managment approach

• Start with managing our climate risk today • Need for strong coordination and cooperation at

all levels to leverage knowledgs, expertise and resources (top down and bottom up)

• Need enabling environements and financial commitement to build and sustain capacities

Thank YouFor more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk ReductionProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services

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Operational climate forecasting and analysis systems

Climate research,modelling and tools

Observations, monitoring, and data management

User Sectors(Improved decisions and policies)

Water resource Management

AgricultureTransportation

Disaster Risk Management

Health

Tourism

Energy

Urban infrastructure development

NGOsUN Agencies

Universities

Aid agencies

Media

Regional Development Institutions Private Sector

(Development and provision of climate services)Retrospective, real time and longer term, including seasonal to multi-decadal prediction

Science-based, and user-driven, based on requirement

User Interaction Mechanism

Network for Climate Services

Launching an Operational Project with Humanitarian Agencies

(March 2009)

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Government and civil defence

authorities

Generalpublic

Privatesector

Humanitarian agencies

New

Media