2015 fantasy football draft guide: tips and strategy review

5
You can become reactive instead of proactive if you focus on testing a specific strategy no matter what. What do I mean by this? You want to draft a wide receiver in Round 1 with the seventh pick in the draft, but Eddie Lacy falls down the board and still hasn’t been drafted when it’s your turn to pick. Do you pass on Lacy because you wanted to draft a wide receiver? Do you pass on Lacy because your opponents are drafting wide receivers earlier than expected? You are being reactive if you stick to the strategy and pass on Lacy. If you realize that is a great spot to land one of the best running backs in the game, however, then you will make a proactive decision. Plans Fall Through I was planning to select a wide receiver in Rounds 1-4 of my 2014 RotoBowl league. It was a full point per reception format, but I assumed that Demaryius Thomas would fall to me. I was wrong. Thomas was actually the third player off the board and Calvin Johnson followed him. I also considered selecting Jimmy Graham, but even he was selected within the first six picks of the draft. I could have drafted Dez Bryant at this spot, and I almost maxed out my clock time thinking about it. I selected Matt Forte because I couldn’t pass on the incredible value he offered. He can save a low rushing total with heavy involvement in the passing game, so he was actually one of the better backs still on the board. I followed my pick of Forte with Alshon Jeffery, Rob Gronkowski, Arian Foster and Andrew Luck. Some players drafted wide receivers from Rounds 1-6, while another player drafted running backs in Rounds 1-3. I can’t say that I used a specific strategy. If anything, I think it would most closely be related to Value Based Drafting, which the gentlemen of Footballguys.com are credited with starting it and bringing it to the public in 1996.

Upload: jack-delaney

Post on 18-Aug-2015

14 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

DESCRIPTION

In the latest series for the Your Fantasy Football Coach 2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I take a look at how my plans fell through for one of my leagues in 2014.

TRANSCRIPT

You can become reactive instead of proactive if you focus on testing a specifc strategy no matter what. What do I mean by this?You want to draft a wide receiver in Round 1 with the seventh pick in the draft, but ddie !acy fa""s down the board and sti"" hasn#t been drafted when it#s your turn to pick. $o you pass on!acy because you wanted to draft a wide receiver? $o you pass on !acy because your opponents are drafting wide receivers ear"ier than e%pected? You are being reactive if you stick to the strategy and pass on !acy. If you rea"i&e that is a great spot to "and one of the best running backs in the game, however, then you wi"" make a proactive decision. Plans Fall Through I was p"anning to se"ect a wide receiver in Rounds 1'( of my )*1( Roto+ow" "eague. It was a fu"" point per reception format, but I assumed that $emaryius ,homas wou"d fa"" to me. I was wrong. ,homas was actua""y the third p"ayer o- the board and .a"vin /ohnson fo""owed him. I a"so considered se"ecting /immy 0raham, but even he was se"ected within the frst si% picks of the draft. I cou"d have drafted $e& +ryant at this spot, and I a"most ma%ed out my c"ock time thinkingabout it. I se"ected 1att 2orte because I cou"dn#t pass on the incredib"e va"ue he o-ered. 3e can save a "ow rushing tota" with heavy invo"vement in the passing game, so he was actua""y one of the better backs sti"" on the board. I fo""owed my pick of 2orte with 4"shon /e-ery, Rob 0ronkowski, 4rian 2oster and 4ndrew !uck. 5ome p"ayers drafted wide receivers from Rounds 1'6, whi"e another p"ayer drafted running backs in Rounds 1'7. I can#t say that I used a specifc strategy. If anything, I think it wou"d most c"ose"y be re"ated to 8a"ue +ased $rafting, which the gent"emen of 2ootba""guys.com are credited with starting it and bringing it to the pub"ic in 1996. Risk vs. RewardI was wi""ing to take a risk that 0ronk might be s"ow to start the season. I knew once he got back into form, however, he wou"d be a beast. I was ab"e to withstand a s"ower starter by protecting my investment with 0reg :"sen. :"sen had a great season, and I was ab"e to p"ug him into the ;e% spot when 0ronkowski returned to form.I a"sodrafted $e4nge"o Wi""iams in Round 1* and /onathan 5tewart in Round 11. veryone was sti"" debating who wou"d have a better season, but I came to the decision that I might as we"" draft both and see who o-ers the most va"ue. We a"" know that you have to take a few risks to win your draft, but I think many peop"e over"ook that you have to take the right risks. The Issues With StrategiesWou"dn#t it be ama&ing if there were says he is avai"ab"e, but what do you do if your opponent drafts him in Round (? $o you grab the ne%t ?uarterback avai"ab"e because you think there wi"" be a run on the position?3umans are obvious"y wi"d cards in terms of decision'making in drafts, and for the most part, we don#t rea""y know who our opponents are. 5ometimes they wi"" free"y ta"k in the chat section about whom they "ike and don#t "ike @pay attentionA, but most of us don#t know our opponent#s tendencies. You need to be ;e%ib"e with your p"ans. How to Approach Your Drat,here are a ton of strategies to approach a draft, but there are some simp"e princip"es I stick by. You can ca"" these strategies if you "ike, but these are concepts that I carry with me in every draft, no matter who anyone e"se picks.!. "ini#i$e Your Risk,here are a "ot of peop"e who "ike the function of mode"s @what something is "ikeA in fantasy footba"", and it seems to be a popu"ar way some fantasy p"ayers "ike to conduct research. If "ooking at how di-erent p"ayers compare to each other he"ps you "earn and win games, then I#m g"ad it he"ps you. 2or me persona""y, I re"y more on myintuition. ,hat#s not to say that I don#t conduct my fair share of research in terms of statistics from the previous season, but I try to understand what can go wrong and what can go right.I "ook at the frst round of a draft, and "et#s say 4drian >eterson, !e#8eon +e"", /amaa" .har"es, ddie !acy and 1arshawn !ynch are a"" o- the board. I have the 1*th spot in the draft, and $e1arco 1urray, !e5ean 1c.oy and /eremy 3i"" are the best avai"ab"e backs. 1urrayB Wi"" 1urray miss out on receptions because of $arren 5pro"es? 3ow we"" can he perform without the impress o-ensive "ine of the $a""as .owboys? Wi"" he "ose touches to Ryan 1athews?1c.oyB 3ow can he perform with an o-ense that has a weak ?uarterback? Wi"" he be worn down because of his "arge work"oad? Is he a"ready worn down because of 6)C carries fro the previous two seasons?3i""B $o I rea""y want to spend a frst'round pick on 3i""? What if the +enga"s decide to focus on throwing the ba"" more with 4./. 0reen, 1arvin /ones and ,y"er ifert hea"thy and ready to start the season? .ou"d 0iovani +ernard become more invo"ved in the o-ense than most peop"e e%pect, "imiting touches for 3i""?,here are cases you can make for these guys, but there are too many Dwhat ifsE for me to draft them in Round 1. If they were avai"ab"e, I wou"d "ook towards drafting $e& +ryant or $emaryius ,homas at this spot. ,hey have their own risks as we"", but I want my core to be as strong as possib"e. I want as few red ;ags as possib"e when se"ecting my frst p"ayer.%. &se ADP as a 'uide$on#t "et 4$> dictate your decisions. I was actua""y in a draft the other day where I contemp"ated drafting 2orsett at the start of Round ), but Ieyton 1anning were sti"" on the board in Round 6. I had one of the "ast picks in Round 6, so I drafted Wi"son. ,here were one or two picks before me in Round F, but when it was my turn to draft, I se"ected 1anning. I wasn#t going to reward my opponents by waiting on ?uarterbacks. I genera""y think it#s wastefu" to have two starters "ike that because you can obvious"y on"y start one, but I was taking resources away from my opponents. I don#t know when Wi"son or 1anning wou"d have been drafted otherwise, but there was no way that I was going to "et somebody draft either of them in the eighth, ninth or 1*th round. Writers and ana"ysts are notorious for waiting on ?uarterbacks, and whi"e I genera""y don#t "ike to draft a ?uarterback in the ear"y rounds, I don#t mind spending a mid'round pick on a p"ayer "ike 1anning or Russe"". I#m not going to "et those p"ayers fa""