AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT February 9, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Al Shabaab is most likely responsible for a suicide bomb attack on a Daallo Airlines flight in Mogadishu, signaling a step-change in the group’s capabilities and tactics.

2. A U.S. airstrike killed atop AQAP commander, but leadership attrition will not significantly disrupt AQAP’s efforts to consolidate control of the primary road and population centers between Aden and al Mukalla.

3. AQIM’s Sahara Emirate conducted a complex attack on a UN police base housed in a hotel in Timbuktu, demonstrating AQIM’s intent to continue high-profile attacks on Western targets in the region.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri appeared in a video posted on the forums by one of the users. The video was the fifth in Zawahiri’s series, “Days with the Imam,” which ran from 2011-2015. The fourth video was released in May 2014 and the sixth was released in July 2014. The video was likely filmed after the Syrian regime’s siege of Homs, Syria, and Zawahiri focused on Maulvi Mohammed Noor’s role in helping besieged al Qaeda fighters escape Tora Bora.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns as al Qaeda leadership attempts to counter ISIS messaging.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda AssociatesTehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued its recent onslaught of attacks in Pakistan. A TTP suicide bomber killed at least 10 people, and wounded 35 others during an attack on the Pakistani Frontier Corps convoy in Quetta, Balochistan, on February 6, 2015. Muhammad Khorasani, the spokesman of TTP core claimed the attack.

A U.S. drone strike killed at least 18 TTP militants along the Paktika province in Afghanistan. The killed militants are believed to be a part of the Sajna splinter faction of the TTP.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces are likely to increase security in the country, following the recent large-scale attacks.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalIsolated reports signal some friction within the al Houthi-Saleh alliance. An al Houthi commander executed three soldiers for their attempted defection in Nihm, Sana’a, days after the reported defection of dozens of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s Republican Guards. Meanwhile, rumors indicate that Saleh remains only loosely allied with the al Houthis would accept President Hadi’s rule under certain conditions, though conditions likely unacceptable to Hadi and his coalition backers.

Outlook: The al Houthi-Saleh alliance remains unlikely to fragment, absent significant developments on the ground.

SecurityCoalition forces claimed control of Midi port and the district in Hajjah in northwestern Yemen, denying the al Houthi-Saleh forces the port access. Reports indicate that coalition-backed forces are now operating in additional ports along the Red Sea. The al Houthis appear to be reinforcing their control in Sana’a, where they held a pro-al Houthi rally and increased the presence of fighters on the streets. Pro-Hadi security forces clashed overtly with suspected AQAP militants in Aden in an effort to increase government control over the city following a long string of assassinations and attacks on critical infrastructure.

Outlook: Fighting will continue along established frontlines as the Hadi government struggles to secure Aden.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP continues to consolidate control in southern Yemen. The group seized multiple population centers in Shabwah and Abyan, increasing its control over a primary road between Aden and al Mukalla, Hadramawt, and asserted authority in al Hawta, Lahij and Zinjibar, Abyan. A U.S. airstrike killed Jalal al Bal’idi al Marqishi, the leader of AQAP’s militant arm in Yemen and its top commander in Abyan, sparking a local succession dispute.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to consolidate control in southern Yemen despite leadership attrition and local disputes.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN1) 04 FEB: A U.S. airstrike killed Ansar al Sharia commander Jalal al Bal’idi al Marqishi in Abyan.2) 08 FEB: AQAP factions reportedly clashed over al Marqishi’s successor in Abyan.3) 03 FEB: AQAP seized Habban, Shabwah.4) 04 FEB: AQAP seized al Mahfad, Abyan.5) 05 FEB: An al Houthi commander executed three soldiers for attempted desertion, in Nihm, Sana’a.

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ASSESSMENT:

Political:The former Prime Minister of Somalia, Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmad, announced the formation of a new political party called the National Forum Party (NFP). If the administration allows the NFP is allowed to run for government positions, the new party may politicize the conflict with al Shabaab and the presence of AMISOM forces in the country, possibly undermining ongoing security operations.

Outlook: The NFP will likely remain insignificant unless the current administration allows passage of a party governance law.

Security: A suicide bomber blew a hole in the side of a Daallo Airlines flight shortly after its takeoff in Mogadishu, forcing an emergency landing. Al Shabaab is most likely responsible. If confirmed, this attack is the group’s first on an airplane and marks a step-change in its capabilities and tactics, as well as the existence of support network among the Aden Adde International Airport staff. Meanwhile, the frequency of attacks on security and aid officials in Mogadishu increased, likely signaling efforts to destabilize the capital city.

Outlook: Al Shabaab may attempt another, more damaging attack on a civilian aircraft.

Al Shabaab:Al Shabaab is disrupting African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) operations in southern Somalia. The group is capitalizing on AMISOM redeployments following the January 15 base attack. Al Shabaab temporarily captured the port city of Marka in the Lower Shabelle region after defending AMISOM forces withdrew. Militants raised flags over government buildings, lectured residents, and posted pictures of the event online before retreating. Al Shabaab controlled Marka from 2008 to 2012, and contesting Marka threatens AMISOM supply lines on the southern Somali coast.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will leverage the recapture of Marka for propaganda and recruitment.  

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 02 FEB: Suspected al Shabaab suicide bombing on airplane near Mogadishu, Banadir region.2) 05 FEB-08 FEB: Al Shabaab temporarily occupied Marka, Lower Shabelle region. 3) 07 FEB: Car bomb targeted Gedo deputy governor official in Bardhere, Gedo region.4) 04 FEB: AMISOM and Jubbaland State forces prepared for Operation Jubba River near Kismayo, Lower Jubba region.

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe UN-backed Presidency Council missed an unofficial deadline for presenting a new cabinet to the House of Representatives (HoR), likely due to disagreements on the inclusion of HoR-linked Libyan National Army (LNA) General Khalifa Haftar in the unity government. Several Misratan militias endorsed the unity government, but their endorsement likely signals divisions in the General National Congress (GNC)-Misrata bloc, not the GNC’s acceptance of the unity government.

Outlook: General Haftar’s role remains a critical point for both the HoR’s and GNC’s participation in the unity government.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army’s (LNA) operational focus remains on eastern Libya, especially Benghazi, Ajdabiya, and Derna, where it is targeting both ISIS- and al Qaeda-linked militants. The LNA conducted airstrikes on Derna, claiming to target ISIS. The LNA also claimed strikes on ISIS vehicles in Ben Jawad, which ISIS recently captured and lies outside of the LNA’s usual zone of operations. The LNA and other Libyan armed groups may use operations against ISIS to garner international support.

Outlook: The LNA will continue to focus its ground forces and limited air power on the eastern Libyan coast.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaThe U.S. and its allies are considering action in Libya, and a U.S. special operations team is reportedly conducting reconnaissance missions from Sicily. Reconnaissance aircraft have flown over ISIS-held territory at least three times this week. A Libya Dawn militia commander said that the coalition’s forces number around 1,400, while the Pentagon estimates 5,000 to 6,500 ISIS militants in Libya. ISIS continues to consolidate control and prepare for airstrikes in Sirte. AQIM-linked Ansar al Sharia remains active in eastern Libya, where it claimed to shoot down an LNA MiG-23 warplane over Derna.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to prepare for airstrikes, which are unlikely to roll back its territorial gains without a cohesive Libyan force on the ground.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 02-07 FEB: LNA forces clashed with Islamist militants in Benghazi.2) 08 FEB: The LNA bombed Islamist positions in Derna, and Ansar al Sharia claimed to down a LNA warplane.3) 07 FEB: Unclaimed airstrikes killed four civilians in Derna.4) 03-07 FEB: LNA forces and affiliated brigades clashed with Sudanese Liberation Movement militants north of al Kufra.5) 04 FEB: ISIS set up checkpoints south of Sirte.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM AQIM militants detonated an SVBIED and launched a ground attack at a UN base at the Palmeraie Hotel in Timbuktu, Mali. AQIM’s Sahara Emirate claimed credit for the attack and linked it to previous hotel attacks in Burkina Faso and Bamako, reinforcing the intent to continue targeting those supporting the Malian peace deal. Militant activity may be rising in Algeria, a primary leader in the Malian peace deal process. Security forces destroyed 18 terrorist bunkers in northern Algeria and detained suspected terrorists in Borj Badji Mokhtar, along a popular trafficking route from Mali. Forces likewise detained travelers suspected of joining ISIS in Libya, signaling the threat posed by Algeria’s destabilized neighbor.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue to target sites frequented by westerners and peacekeepers in the Sahel.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Uqba Ibn Nafa’a is remaining quiet as Tunisian forces conduct frequent counterterrorism operations. Security forces arrested 17 suspected terrorists from a group called Ahl al Haq in Monastir, eastern Tunisia. This is the first mention of Ahl al Haq, and its reported allegiance to ISIS may signal a rift in Tunisian terrorist group activity.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafaa’s silence may harm its recruitment capabilities, and Salafi-jihadi cells and militants may turn increasingly to ISIS should Uqba Ibn Nafa’a not resume media or kinetic operations soon.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Al Murabitoun, an AQIM-linked group, claimed credit for the kidnapping of an elderly Australian couple last month in northern Burkina Faso. The group released the woman quickly while holding her husband, citing historical guidance from al Qaeda leadership to not involve civilian women in war and reinforcing the group’s ties to the al Qaeda network. Suspected AQIM-linked militants executed the son of a village chief in central Mali. The chief was supposedly a former ally of AQIM.

Outlook: Al Murabitoun and other AQIM affiliates will continue attacks to disrupt the Malian peace deal and expand their zones of operation.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

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41) 02 FEB: Tunisian security forces killed three suspected terrorists and arrested one in Matmata, southern Gabes province.2) 03 FEB: A terrorist surrendered to the Algerian army in Borj Badji Mokhtar, southern Algeria.3) 03-06 FEB: Algerian forces destroyed 14 terrorist bunkers in Bouira province. 4) 05 FEB: Tunisian forces arrested 17 suspected terrorists linked to Ahl al Haq in Monastir.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA

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1) 02 FEB: The Malian army arrested two men carrying explosives near Gao, northeastern Mali. 2) 05 FEB: Militants from AQIM’s Sahara Emirate launched a complex attack on a UN police base in Timbuktu, northern Mali.3) 07 FEB: Suspected AQIM militants executed the son of a village chief in Boni, central Mali.

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ACRONYMSAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569