AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT April 26, 2016

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

2

1

2

1. AQAP withdrew in advance of a coalition-backed offensive in Hadramawt, Yemen. AQAP had controlled al Mukalla, Yemen’s third-largest port city, since April 2015.

2. ISIS claimed an IED attack in Mogadishu, the group’s first attack in Somalia. A pro-ISIS cell operates from northern Somalia after defecting from al Shabaab in October 2015.

3. ISIS withdrew its forces from Derna, Libya, and may also be preparing to withdraw from Sirte, Libya, in advance of an imminent offensive to regain the coastal city.

3

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-led peace negotiations began in Kuwait on April 21, but remain fragile. Representatives from the al Houthis and the General People’s Congress party (GPC), as well as President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s delegation, agreed to appoint officials to ceasefire-monitoring committees in contested governorates, indicating that all parties seek to de-escalate the conflict. The parties agreed to an agenda for the talks on April 26.

Outlook: The al Houthi-GPC delegation will abandon talks if the Hadi delegation continues to demand al Houthi-Saleh forces’ disarmament and withdrawal from seized territory as a precursor to additional action.

SecurityClashes continue along Yemen’s frontlines between al Houthi-Saleh forces and forces loyal to President Hadi, especially in and around Taiz city, though the overall level of violence has fallen. Both sides reported violations of the ceasefires.

Outlook: Clashes along key frontlines will continue, especially in Taiz.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP is preserving its fighting capabilities as coalition-backed forces advance. AQAP withdrew from al Mukalla and coastal Hadramawt before a UAE-led offensive to regain control of the city and the surrounding infrastructure. AQAP militants are fighting to retain control of Zinjibar and Ja’ar in Abyan, launching an SVBIED attack against coalition-backed forces outside of Zinjibar. The group may also be reducing its presence in Shabwah and consolidating resources around traditional support zones in Abyan, Ma’rib, and possibly al Bayda. Counterterrorism operations in Aden and al Hawta, Lahij continue to put pressure on militant groups in the area and may be responsible for reduced ISIS activity in Aden following a brief uptick in attacks.

Outlook: AQAP will likely relocate resources toward Abyan and will launch attacks on pro-Hadi security forces to disrupt further operations against the group.

3

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

4

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

1

4

3

2

1) 24 APR: AQAP withdrew from al Mukalla, Hadramawt.2) 24 APR: Pro-Hadi forces retreated from Zinjibar, Abyan after an AQAP VBIED attack.3) 25 APR: Reported U.S. airstrike killed 10 AQAP militants near Azzan, Shabwah.4) 19 APR: Al Houthi-Saleh forces fired a ballistic missile from Sahar, Sa’ada.5) 21 APR: Pro-Hadi forces staged clearing operations in al Mansoura, Aden.

5

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSomali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, among others, announced his intention to run for reelection in the upcoming Somali presidential election. Mohamud has been Somalia’s president since September 2012. The Somali Federal Government (SFG) was established in August 2012 and recognized by the U.S. in January 2013.

Outlook: The campaign process for the Somali presidential elections will consume Somali politicians’ energy, inhibiting progress along other critical political fronts such as the Federal Member State system.

SecurityAl Shabaab retains freedom of movement in the southern portions of Bay region, despite recent Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) operations to regain control of the primary roadways and key villages. Al Shabaab militants have disrupted the operation by ambushing AMISOM convoys and raiding SNA bases.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will counter the SFG’s recent gains by attacking SFG-controlled towns in Bay region.

Al ShabaabThe Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) claimed its first attack in Somalia. ISIS conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack targeting an AMISOM vehicle in Daynile district in the outskirts of Mogadishu. There were no casualties. The attack indicates that a pro-ISIS cell may be operating in Mogadishu, possibly under the leadership of a former al Shabaab operations commander whom Somali security forces recently arrested. AEI’s Critical Threats Project had assessed that the Somali pro-ISIS group had about 20 members and was based in northern Puntland region. It is possible that al Shabaab members are defecting to ISIS and forming operational cells in southern Somalia.

Outlook: ISIS-affiliated media, particularly al Furat media and Jabha East Africa, will likely publicize the ISIS-linked attack in Mogadishu and call for additional al Shabaab militants to defect and join pro-ISIS groups.

5

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

6

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

4

3

1

2

1) 24 APR: AMISOM forces raided an al Shabaab hideout in Burhakaba, Bay region.2) 24 APR: Self-proclaimed ISIS militants detonated an IED in Mogadishu.3) 24 APR: SNA and AMISOM forces advanced to al Shabaab-held areas of Middle Shabelle region.4) 19 APR: Al Shabaab kidnapped students in Harardhere district, Mudug region.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) is consolidating authority in Tripoli and gaining international support as the West prepares to address the ISIS threat from Libya and the country’s growing refugee flows. The GNA still lacks official approval from the internationally recognized House of Representatives (HoR) and does not control the oil resources. A faction of Libya’s National Oil Company began to export crude without the GNA’s authority.

Outlook: The GNA’s dependence on international support will undermine its legitimacy in the long term.

SecurityA Libyan National Army (LNA) offensive on Sirte may be imminent. The LNA received a large shipment of military vehicles, reportedly from the UAE, and may be working with militia leaders from Libya’s southwest to build an anti-ISIS force. Similarly, an armed force appears to be mobilizing from Misrata towards Sirte, though not in concert with the LNA.

Outlook: Multiple Libyan armed groups will mobilize as anti-ISIS forces in a bid for legitimacy and political leverage.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS withdrew from Derna and may be shaping to withdraw from Sirte, should its stronghold become contested. ISIS would likely withdraw into Libya’s southwest, from which it could support attack cells operating on Libya’s coast, as well as threaten Tunisia and Algeria. ISIS in Libya is also beginning to use lines of communication in southwestern Libya to coordinate with Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyah, also known as Boko Haram, signaling efforts to operationalize a previously symbolic relationship and extend ISIS’s influence in the Sahel. Ansar al Sharia in Libya, an al Qaeda associate, is attempting to leverage popular grievances with the LNA’s military campaigns to build support in Benghazi and Derna.

Outlook: ISIS will likely fight an initial battle in Sirte to impose costs on its attackers but will then withdraw to southwestern Libya, where it will remain a destabilizing threat to the region.

7

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

8

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

4

31

2

5

1) 20 APR: ISIS withdrew from the outskirts of Derna.2) 22 APR: Islamist militants detonated a VBIED targeting LNA forces in Benghazi.3) 23 APR: Suspected ISIS militants detonated a SVBIED targeting an LNA patrol south of Derna.4) 23 APR: An ISIS convoy clashed with Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) forces south of al Brega. 5) 23 APR: ISIS withdrew militants from Ben Jawad.

ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)AQIM and ISIS are both increasing their operational capabilities in Algeria. Algerian security forces killed a suspected terrorist, likely linked to AQIM, attempting to cross into Algeria from Niger. AQIM activity along key lines of communication (LOCs) linking cells in the Maghreb to support zones in the Sahel indicates that AQIM is making concerted efforts to coordinate and is likely planning to carry out an attack in Algeria in the near future. ISIS-affiliated ‘Amaq News Agency released two ISIS claims for attacks in northeast Algeria in as many weeks, signaling efforts to increase operational tempo in the country.

Outlook: AQIM and ISIS will conduct small-scale operations against security forces in northeast Algeria in order to compete for dominance as the vanguard of the Salafi-jihadi movement in the Maghreb.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Uqba Ibn Nafa’a is drawing on AQIM’s strength in an effort to reactivate and expand its network in Tunisia. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a released media that aligned with AQIM statements and signaled its ties to militant activity in both Tunisia and Algeria, underscoring the cross-border threat posed by AQIM and its affiliates throughout the region.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will conduct defensive operations against security forces in western and central Tunisia and increase media recruitment efforts throughout the country.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) The arrest of an al Murabitoun leader, Fawaz Ould Ahmeida, may limit the group’s short-term capabilities to carry out attacks in southern Mali. Ahmeida reportedly planned last year’s attacks on hotels in Sevare and Bamako and last month’s attempted attack on the headquarters of the European Union Training Mission in Bamako. Elsewhere, AQIM affiliates are attempting to exploit the ongoing Kidal demonstrations against French and UN presence through propaganda in support of the protests.

Outlook: AQIM affiliates will release additional propaganda and conduct attacks on French and UN peacekeeping forces in northeastern Mali in order to bolster public support in the region. .

9

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

10

MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

231

4

1) 20 APR: Tunisian security forces arrested a suspected Uqba Ibn Nafa’a member in Kairouan.2) 20-22 APR: Algerian security forces arrested five suspected terrorists in Tebessa.3) 21 APR: ISIS militants reportedly killed four Algerian soldiers with a landmine in Jijel. 4) 23 APR: Algerian security forces killed a suspected terrorist, likely AQIM, in Tamanrasset.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

11

SAHELWEST AFRICA

3

2

1

1) 21 APR: Malian Special Forces arrested a suspected al Murabitoun leader in Bamako.2) 23 APR: Suspected Islamist militants ambushed a Malian army convoy near Goundam, Timbuktu region. 3) 23 APR: A suspected Islamist militant prematurely detonated an IED near Ansongo, Gao region.

ACRONYMS

12

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569

13