AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT March 8, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. A Tunisian ISIS cell operating from a Libyan safe-haven launched a coordinated cross-border attack into Tunisia and will generate more attacks on Tunisia in the future.

2. Al Shabaab attempted to move explosive devices onto a plane in Somalia for the second time, indicating a concerted effort to develop and refine the capability.

3. The al Houthis entered into direct negotiations to resolve the Yemeni conflict by sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia for the first time. Previous talks ran through intermediaries.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAssistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Lisa Monaco stated that the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) has “eclipsed core al Qaeda as the principal terrorist threat” the U.S. faces. She added, however, that the threat from al Qaeda remains. The affiliates, which have largely escaped intense military operations that placed pressure on al Qaeda senior leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan, remain active and the U.S. continues to disrupt plots from them.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and local resilience.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda AssociatesAl Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) released the first episode of a series, “al Hadeed,” intended to report on AQIS operations and promote its propaganda material. The first episode, produced by “al Sahab Media Subcontinent,” featured an audio clip with AQIS leader Asim Umar and focuses on the assassinations of Bangladeshi bloggers.

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a splinter faction of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) conducted a suicide attack in a local court in Charsadda, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The suicide attack killed 17 people and injured 30 others.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces will sustain increased ground and air operations in the FATA, as it enters the final phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe opening of direct talks between al Houthi representatives and Saudi officials in Saudi Arabia is a marked shift in how political negotiations for a resolution to the Yemen crisis had been structured. It is not clear whether former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, a critical powerbroker in the conflict, has representatives present at the talks. Separately, both Saleh and General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar, aligned with President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, have been attempting to secure the loyalty of northern tribes.

Outlook: The al Houthi-Saudi talks are unlikely to reach a rapid political settlement. Even should they resolve the national-level conflict, neither the al Houthi-Saleh alliance nor Hadi or the coalition exercise direct control over factions on the ground, and will likely continue to fight for their own interests.

SecurityCoalition-backed forces pushed northward in Hajjah and al Jawf governorates in northern Yemen, while fighting continued along established frontlines in central Yemen. Militants in Aden meanwhile assassinated two high-level officials with responsibility for countering militancy in southern Yemen. U.S. and coalition airstrikes targeted AQAP in Shabwah and near al Mukalla, Hadramawt, respectively.

Outlook: The coalition will continue to pressure al Houthi forces in the north as President Hadi struggles to secure Aden.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenGunmen believed to be affiliated with ISIS executed residents at a Christian nursing home in Aden. AQAP’s Ansar al Sharia denied involvement in the attack, which is outside of AQAP’s attack signature. AQAP displayed its continued strength in al Mukalla by holding a two-day rally and also posted pictures of a tribal gathering in Abyan.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to operate among tribal groups and militias, drawing strength from relations built on the ground.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 04 MAR: Militants stormed a nursing home in Aden.2) 04 MAR: A reported U.S. airstrike killed four AQAP militants in Rudum, Shabwah.3) 01 and 03 MAR: Coalition airstrikes targeted AQAP weapons stores near al Mukalla, Hadramawt.4) 05 MAR: Gunmen assassinated a police chief in Aden.5) 02 MAR: The coalition ordered vessels to leave al Hudaydah port.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe composition of the Galmudug State administration remains contentious. Galmudug State officials attempted to negotiate the assimilation of the Sufi Ahlu Sunna Wa al Jama’a (ASWJ) group into the regional administration’s security forces in Dhusamareb on March 2. The talks dissolved and ASWJ forces drove Somali army troops from Dhusamareb.

Outlook: ASWJ will likely continue to tie up Galmudug’s security resources, hindering efforts against al Shabaab.

SecurityThe U.S. targeting of al Shabaab militants at a camp in Hiraan region on March 6 indicates a shift in the U.S. target set in Somalia. A Pentagon official claimed the militants posed an imminent threat to U.S. troops and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces in Somalia. The airstrike, reportedly conducted in collaboration with Somali intelligence assets, killed approximately 150 militants. Al Shabaab confirmed the strike, but denied the high casualty count.

Outlook: The U.S. will sustain a counterterrorism mission in Somalia oriented against direct and imminent threats.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab may be refining its ability to move explosive devices aboard planes. Al Shabaab attempted to smuggle several explosive devices concealed in electronics aboard a passenger plane at Beledweyne’s Ugas Khalif Airport. One device prematurely detonated at a screening checkpoint. Two additional concealed explosives were found and cleared by security personnel. This attempt is similar to the group’s Daallo Airlines bombing in Mogadishu on February 2, when an al Shabaab suicide bomber detonated a laptop bomb mid-flight, forcing the plane to land. The attempt indicates a trend in attacks against commercial airliners, and also shows increasing sophistication in al Shabaab’s ability to manufacture concealed explosives.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely strive to conduct a successful passenger plane bombing in order to increase its global notoriety.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 06 MAR: U.S. airstrikes targeted an al Shabaab camp in Hiraan region. 2) 07 MAR: Al Shabaab attempted to smuggle an IED onto an airplane at Beledweyne Airport, Hiraan region.3) 03 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting the Somali Defense Minister’s convoy near Kismayo Airport, Lower Jubba region.4) 07 MAR: Kenyan police arrested ISIS recruits in Busia County, Kenya.

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe Libyan House of Representatives has yet to reach a consensus on the cabinet for the Government of National Accord.

Outlook: Spoilers will continue to hinder the implementation of the GNA due to conflicting political interests.

SecurityLNA forces have cleared the majority of Benghazi of Islamist militants, including ISIS, Ansar al Sharia, and affiliated groups. The remaining militants in the city are trapped in the al Sabri district as well as isolated positions in the western periphery of the city. Convoys of ISIS militants have reportedly fled from Benghazi to Sirte due to the ongoing LNA offensive. LNA forces and local police are now coordinating to secure the areas of the city that have been cleared.

Outlook: LNA forces will continue to target the remaining Islamist militant strongholds in Benghazi. However, the LNA will struggle to control and retain the city because of entrenched Salafi-jihadi networks that will facilitate retaliatory attacks.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaA Tunisian ISIS cell based near Sabratha attacked Tunisian security targets across the border in Ben Guerdane, signaling that the group is using its Libyan sanctuary as a support zone for a Tunisia-focused campaign. Allied Sabrathan militias are contesting the cell’s current positions near Sabratha. ISIS Wilayat Tarablus militants continue to target local opposition and project their influence from their base in Sirte. Western leaders remain hesitant to intervene in Libya in the absence of a unified Libyan government. American, French, British, and Italian special operations personnel continue to conduct reconnaissance on ISIS targets and provide covert support for Libyan forces in Misrata and Benghazi.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to use its Libyan sanctuary to generate attacks both inside Libya and throughout the region. International forces will continue to conduct airstrikes on high-value ISIS targets and provide limited support to local forces.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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51) 03 MARCH: LNA forces seized a militant-held military base in Benghazi, Libya.2) 03 MARCH: ISIS militants fled from Benghazi to Sirte.3) 06 MARCH: LNA forces clashed with an ISIS convoy south of Ajdabiya.4) 02-04 MARCH: Sabrathan Joint Taskforce fighters clashed with ISIS militants in Sabratha.5) 02 MARCH: ISIS militants killed two Italian hostages near Sabratha.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM AQIM remained quiet this week as Algerian security forces destroyed numerous suspected terrorist bunkers and killed two suspected terrorists during clearing operations in Bouira, northern Algeria. It is likely the clearing operations are routine and in reaction to clashes with ISIS-linked militants last month.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will maintain focus on expanding in Mali and opposing Western influence through recruitment. .

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Increased militant activity in the mountains of Sidi Bouzid and Kasserine provinces, Tunisia, signals an operational step-change in territory frequented by Uqba Ibn Nafa’a members. At least twenty militants attacked a Sidi Bouzid town on March 4, less than a week after Tunisian security forces in the same area killed four suspected terrorists, including Mohammed al Basdouri, who is linked to the Bardo and Sousse attacks. Basdouri’s connections to ISIS give credence to reports of internal conflict between AQIM-linked Uqba militants and pro-ISIS defectors. Further defections to ISIS may presage the creation of a new wilayat in Tunisia, which is increasingly likely following an organized ISIS attack in Ben Guerdane, southeast Tunisia, on March 7.

Outlook: ISIS will conduct more attacks in both central Tunisia and along the Tunisian-Libyan border.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Ansar al Din and its southern affiliate, the Macina Liberation Front (MLF), launched a series of attacks against Malian and UN security forces this week. Ansar al Din detonated IEDs targeting UN vehicles in Kidal and near Tessalit in northeastern Mali. The group also launched mortars at a UN camp in Kidal and was likely responsible for shelling near a UN camp in Tessalit. The MLF attacked a police checkpoint, killing three soldiers, in Macina, Segou Region, central Mali.

Outlook: Ansar al Din and its affiliates will continue to coordinate attacks against local and international security forces in order to destabilize the region and to expand their area of operations.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

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1) 01 MAR: Tunisian security forces killed a suspected ISIS militant in Sidi Bouzid.2) 01-02 MAR: Algerian security forces killed two suspected terrorists and destroyed bunkers in Bouira.3) 04 MAR: Militants, likely from the ISIS-linked Fallujah Brigade, attacked homes in Sidi Bouzid.4) 07 MAR: ISIS militants conducted an organized attack on Tunisian military and police posts in Ben Guerdane.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 01 MAR: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting a UN vehicle near Tessalit, Kidal region.2) 02 MAR: MLF militants attacked a police checkpoint in Macina, Segou region. 3) 04 MAR: Ansar al Din launched mortars at a UN camp in Kidal.4) 07 MAR: Militants attacked a Malian army camp in Misseni, Sikasso region.

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ACRONYMSAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569