AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

July 26, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. Iran continues to provide sanctuary to senior al Qaeda operatives who hold financial, communications, and logistical roles within the organization.

2. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the AQIM-affiliated al Murabitoun emir, denounced France’s intervention in Libya in a written statement.

3. Al Shabaab suicide bombers targeted an AMISOM base in Mogadishu, killing 13 people, but failing to breach the compound’s perimeter.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

al Qaeda NetworkIRAN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SENIOR AL QAEDA OPERATIVES SANCTUARY. AL QAEDA’S NETWORK IN IRAN

IS A PIPELINE THROUGH WHICH AL QAEDA CAN MOVE MONEY, FACILITATORS, AND OPERATIVES. THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON THREE SENIOR AL QAEDA MEMBERS OPERATING IN IRAN ON JULY 20, DESCRIBING ONE OF THE DESIGNEES AS “PART OF A NEW GENERATION OF AL QAEDA

OPERATIVES.” THE OTHER OPERATIVES SERVED AS MEDIATORS BETWEEN AL QAEDA AND IRANIAN AUTHORITIES AND HELD FINANCIAL, COMMUNICATIONS, AND LOGISTICAL ROLES FOR THE GROUP.

AL QAEDA ATTACKED THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND AL SHAM’S (ISIS) RELIGIOUS POSITIONS IN FOUR STATEMENTS RELEASED BY AL QAEDA’S AL SAHAB MEDIA FOUNDATION BETWEEN JULY 19 AND JULY 22. AL

QAEDA REFUTED ISIS’S ALLEGATIONS OF HERESY AND ACCUSED ISIS OF HARBORING BA’ATHIST INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS. IT ALSO ACCUSED AL BAGHDADI AND HIS FOLLOWERS OF HYPOCRISY AND

FAILING TO ABIDE BY SHARI’A.

AL QAEDA EMIR AYMAN AL ZAWAHIRI REITERATED HIS CALL FOR MILITANTS TO KIDNAP WESTERNERS FOR PRISONER SWAPS, EMBEDDED IN A JULY 23 STATEMENT RELEASED BY AL SAHAB. RECENT ZAWAHIRI

STATEMENTS FOCUSED ON THE “ISLAMIC SPRING,” AND THERE IS A NOTABLE SHIFT TO FOCUSING ON A CALL TO JIHAD AND RECOGNIZING MARTYRS. ZAWAHIRI MENTIONED TWO DECEASED AL QAEDA HOSTAGES,

AMERICAN WARREN WEINSTEIN AND ITALIAN GIOVANNI LO PORTO. ZAWAHIRI ALSO EULOGIZED LEADERS FROM AL QAEDA AFFILIATES IN SOMALIA AND THE CAUCASUS AND AN AL QAEDA-ASSOCIATED GROUP IN

EGYPT.

AL QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP) CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO THE SALAFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT. IT ANALYZED THE TACTICS USED IN THE JULY 15 NICE VEHICULAR TERRORIST ATTACK IN

THE SECOND EDITION OF ITS “INSPIRE GUIDE,” A SHORT SERIES THAT PROVIDES ADVICE FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS. AN AQAP-INFLUENCED TELEGRAM ACCOUNT, “INSPIRE THE BELIEVERS,” PUBLISHED

METHODS FOR LONE-WOLF ATTACKS AT THE RIO 2016 OLYMPICS ON JULY 20 AND JULY 21. THE ACCOUNT PRAISED THE ATTACK METHODS OF THE 1972 MUNICH OLYMPICS MASSACRE AND ENCOURAGED ATTACKERS

TO OBTAIN GUNS, USE WEAPONIZED DRONES, AND INSTIGATE CAR CRASHES.

Outlook: AL QAEDA WILL CONTINUE TO CULTIVATE THE NEXT GENERATION OF ITS LEADERSHIP IN ITS IRANIAN SAFE HAVEN AND USE AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-MESSAGING TO COMBAT ISIS PROPAGANDA,

ESPECIALLY AS ISIS LOSES TERRAIN IN IRAQ AND SYRIA.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-led peace talks in Kuwait are unlikely to yield an agreement. The Kuwaiti government expressed frustration with the talks’ fruitlessness and issued an August 4 deadline for a resolution, at which time the al Houthi-Saleh delegation and President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s delegation must leave Kuwait. President Hadi replaced four members of his negotiating delegation and promoted four al Islah-affiliated and independent politicians in their place. Hadi’s reshuffle signals an expanded role for the Islamist al Islah party, which is supported by Saudi Arabia and linked to Hadi’s vice president.

Outlook: The Hadi and al Houthi-GPC delegations will not agree to a lasting agreement before August 4.

SecurityAl Houthi-Saleh forces launched an offensive campaign targeting Saudi Arabia following rhetoric denouncing Saudi intervention in Yemen. Al Houthi-Saleh forces resumed cross-border attacks into southern Saudi Arabia after a six-week pause and launched missiles or shells across the border every day between July 22 and July 26. Clashes slowed to a normal tempo northeast of Sana’a, indicating that a large-scale offensive on Sana’a is no longer imminent. Violence rose in Aden, Hadi’s de facto capital, where militants conducted eight explosive attacks and assassinations in one week.

Outlook: The Saudi-led coalition will escalate its air campaign in northern Yemen in response to cross-border attacks.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan is attempting to undermine local support for the internationally recognized government in Aden. ISIS conducted an IED attack targeting military personnel on July 20 in Aden city and assassinated a Salafi militia commander who cooperated with the Saudi-led coalition in Aden on July 21. AQAP continued a campaign of assassinations to eliminate opposition leadership in Abyan and Aden governorates. Abyan is a historical support base for AQAP.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to target local leaders in Abyan and Lahij governorates, and ISIS will attack a military or government target in Aden or al Mukalla in coming weeks.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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1) 20 JUL: ISIS militants detonated an IED in al Mansoura, Aden.2) 21 JUL: ISIS militants assassinated Salafi leader in Sheikh Othman, Aden.3) 22 JUL: Militants detonated a VBIED in Sana’a city.4) 25 JUL: Al Houthi- Saleh forces launched a Tochka missile toward Jazan province, Saudi Arabia.5) 25 JUL: Al Houthi- Saleh fighters clashed with Saudi border guards near Najran province, Saudi Arabia.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalOfficials from the self-declared independent region of Somaliland and the semi-autonomous Puntland state reached an agreement to prevent the outbreak of a border war on July 23. Clashes over disputed land killed ten individuals and displaced hundreds from July 18 to 21. Both states claim sovereignty of the Sanaag and Sool regions of northern Somalia.

Outlook: Conflict between Somaliland and Puntland will likely reignite in the future and risks enmeshing other regional actors including Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.

Security Somali security services have not disrupted fully the lines of communication that allow al Shabaab to bring suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) into Mogadishu. Al Shabaab militants conducted an explosive attack on a UN and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in Mogadishu on July 26, killing 13 individuals and wounding 17 others. Somali intelligence officials seized an SVBIED in Bondhere district, Mogadishu on July 24 after local civilians informed security officials about the planned attack.

Outlook: Al Shabaab may intensify its SVBIED campaign targeting UN, AMISOM, and Somali officials in Mogadishu in the run-up to federal elections, scheduled to begin in August 2016.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab maintained control of strategic positions throughout central and southern Somalia. Al Shabaab has resisted AMISOM and SNA efforts to recapture Marka, a key port city in Lower Shabelle region, since July 11. AMISOM forces are preparing for an offensive on the port town. Al Shabaab fighters also occupied a village near Adale town in Middle Shabelle region on July 21, and recaptured Berhani village in Lower Juba region on July 24 after being driven out by AMISOM forces.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely retreat from Marka before the AMISOM offensive, but will return if AMISOM or SNA forces do not hold the town.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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HoA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 19 JUL - 25 JUL

1) 21 JUL: Puntland and Somaliland security forces mobilized near Labho area in Sanaag region.2) 24 JUL: Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency forces (NISA) interdicted SVBIED in Bondhere district of Mogadishu.3) 24 JUL: Al Shabaab militants reoccupied Berhani in Lower Jubba region.4) 25 JUL: AMISOM and SNA forces launched siege of al Shabaab-controlled Marka town in Lower Shabelle region.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalWestern counterterrorism operations in Libya are delegitimizing the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

Anti-GNA protests broke out across Libya after France confirmed the presence of its troops in Benghazi alongside the Libyan National Army (LNA), which contests the GNA’s authority. Protests in Misrata supported the Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia that is fighting against the LNA. The GNA designated the BDB as a terrorist organization to legitimize the French intervention, but now risks straining ties with the powerful Misratan militias that comprise its only military forces.

Outlook: Anti-LNA factions in western Libya will continue to support Islamist coalitions fighting against the LNA, further undermining the unity government.

SecurityIslamist coalitions supported by the Ansar al Sharia network are continuing efforts to reestablish safe havens in eastern

Libya. The LNA blocked militants from marching northward on Benghazi, but fighting is ongoing in the city. A statement attributed to Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the emir of AQIM affiliate al Murabitoun, praised the militants fighting in Benghazi.

Outlook: The al Qaeda network will increase rhetorical and possibly material support for militants in eastern Libya, especially as Western powers intervene.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaThe counter-ISIS fight in Sirte remains stalled. Misratan forces operating under the GNA seized strategic locations in the

city but suffered heavy casualties. Another Misratan militia mobilized from southwestern Libya to reinforce the Sirte frontline.

Outlook: ISIS will take advantage of the new security vacuum in southwestern Libya to establish new bases, from which it will seek to conduct attacks in northern Libya and in neighboring states.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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1) 25 JUL: Misratan forces seized an IED factory and a security headquarters in Sirte.2) 20 JUL: The LNA forced the Benghazi Defense Brigade to retreat from al Maqrun between Ajdabiya and Benghazi.3) 19 JUL: The Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council advanced into the Garyounis district in Benghazi.4) 25 JUL: The Misratan Military Council ordered the Libyan Third Force to move from Sebha to Sirte.

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| ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) • Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the emir of AQIM-affiliated al Murabitoun, denounced the French military presence in Libya and

urged Libyan Muslims to fight against the West . The release of the written statement by al Murabitoun’s media wing strengthens CTP’s assessment that Belmokhtar survived the June 15, 2015, U.S. airstrike that targeted a meeting of Islamist leaders in Ajdabiya, Libya. AQIM has sanctuary in southern Libya and supports Islamist groups operating in the country’s northeast.

Outlook: AQIM will use the southern Libyan desert as a support zone for regional operations.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Tunisian authorities cracked down on suspected Salafi-jihadi militants and smuggling networks, which ISIS and other

Salafi-jihadi groups use to move operatives and weapons across the Libyan-Tunisian border. Tunisian security forces detained more than thirty suspected militants since the government extended a nationwide state of emergency last week. Tunisian security forces clashed with smugglers near the Libyan border three times since July 21, provoking villagers to riot after the death of a smuggler.

Outlook: Popular unrest and ISIS recruitment may accelerate in the marginalized Tunisian interior due to the crackdown on smuggling, which is the main source of economic activity in Tunisia’s impoverished regions.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)Salafi-jihadi groups are co-opting local grievances in central Mali to attack Malian military and government targets. AQIM,

Ansar al Din, and a secular militia group associated with the Fulani tribe conducted a large-scale assault on a military base in the Segou region of central Mali. Fighting broke out between signees to the 2015 Mali Peace Accord for control of Kidal city in northern Mali. This outbreak of violence is the first test of the new MINUSMA mandate, which approved expanded responsibilities for UN peacekeepers on June 29.

Outlook: AQIM affiliates will coordinate attacks in central Mali while security forces concentrate on curbing the violence in northern Mali.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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2 41) 19 JUL: Tunisian security forces dismantled a suspected Salafi-jihadi cell in Kalaa Seghira, Tunisia.2) 20 JUL: The Algerian People’s National Army killed one suspected militant in Bouzeguene, Algeria.3) 21 JUL: Tunisian border police clashed with smugglers on the Tunisian-Libyan border near Ben Guerdane, Tunisia.4) 22 JUL: Militants detonated an IED in the Jebel Samama region, Tunisia.

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1) 19 JUL: Militants, including elements from AQIM and Ansar al Din, raided a Malian military base in Nampala, Mali.2) 20 JUL: Malian and French forces secured territory in Ansongo, Mali as part of Operation Etoile.4) 22 JUL: A coalition of ex-separatist groups took control of Kidal, Mali after clashes with a pro-government militia. 4) 15 JUL: Militants with ties to AQIM raided a CMA outpost near Ber, Mali.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569

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al Qaeda Team AnalystsKatherine ZimmermanEmily Estelle

al Qaeda Team InternsAlix HalloranKristen JohnsonNick JonssonColin LahiffSarah LossingBailey PalmerDan Toubman

Iran Team AnalystsPaul BucalaMarie DonovanCaitlin Pendleton

Iran Team InternsShayan Enferadi

Communications & Technology InternsMargot GrubertIkaasa Suri

Research Teams