AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT December 1, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Senior Iranian officials oppose peace plans for regional crises that involve the partitioning of Iraq or Syria, as indicated by their criticism of plots to "disintegrate" Middle Eastern countries.

2. An outright military victory in Yemen grows increasingly unlikely as the Saudi-led coalition shifts from combat operations to stabilization operations.

3. Al Shabaab is taking advantage of Kenyan-Somali tensions to cross the border and expand its operational and recruitment capabilities in Kenya.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda’s affiliates continue to pursue their respective objectives in their regional theaters. Al Qaeda’s Yemen-based affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), continues to expand and controls one of the country’s three major port cities. It issued a warning to Saudi Arabia over the country’s reported plan to execute over 50 people convicted on charges of terrorism. AQAP draws on Saudi fighters in Yemen, though it is not clear whether the group would be able to carry out a sophisticated attack inside the Kingdom. Al Shabaab is expanding its insurgency in Somalia, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb-linked groups have expanded their areas of operations. Further, Jabhat al Nusra just negotiated a prisoner exchange with Lebanese authorities.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will likely continue to pursue a long-term strategy in which it builds strength among its affiliates and benefits from the West’s focus on defeating the ISIS threat.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesPakistan increased its counter-terrorism offensive in response to a recent increase in militant activity. Pakistani police killed Haroon Bhatti, a founding leader of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), during an exchange in Lahore. Three other LeJ members were killed in the attack. Separately, a U.S. drone strike killed Khan “Sajna” Sayed, a founding leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Khan Sayed split from the TTP and led an independent faction after falling out with TTP emir Mullah Fazlullah.

The Pakistani military also continued its ground and air operations in the Shawal Valley area of North Waziristan. The Pakistani Air Force killed at least 17 militants during air strikes in the Khyber Agency area. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military’s offensive in North Waziristan, is in its final phase.

Outlook: Pakistan may increase security in cities following increased threats of attacks. Separately, the Pakistani military will continue Operation Zarb-e-Azb to eliminate militancy in the tribal areas of North Waziristan.

AL QAEDA

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PoliticalBoth sides continue to delay the start of UN-led Geneva peace talks. Officials from President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government accused the al Houthis and their allies of refusing to accept the peace terms, which require them to disarm and withdraw from seized territory. Anonymous diplomats blamed President Hadi for delaying a settlement to preserve his own political position.

Outlook: Both parties will continue to delay peace talks as they attempt to achieve their political and military goals.

SecurityHostilities intensified near the Saudi-Yemeni border as Saudi-led coalition forces enter a new operational phase. Al Houthi-Saleh forces shelled Saudi territory and launched a large cross-border attack on Saudi military sites. The UAE is training Colombian mercenaries and Eritrean soldiers to replace Emirati combat troops in Yemen, indicating a shift from combat to stabilization operations. Fighting continued along frontlines in Taiz, Ibb, al Dhaleh, al Bayda, Ma’rib, and Shabwah governorates.

Outlook: The Saudi-led coalition will continue to replace combat units with hired troops as it focuses on consolidating territory along the frontline running from the Bab al Mandeb strait, through Taiz governorate, and northward through Ma’rib city and providing a zone in which the Hadi government can operate.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAnsar al Sharia, AQAP’s insurgent arm, conducted nearly a dozen attacks on al Houthi positions in al Bayda governorate in central Yemen. ISIS affiliates targeted al Houthi and al Houthi- and Saleh-affiliated Popular Committee leaders in Sana’a city in central Yemen and Abyan and Lahij governorates in southern Yemen.

Outlook: Ansar al Sharia will continue to strengthen its relationships with anti-al Houthi popular resistance and tribal forces in al Bayda. ISIS affiliates will continue to develop operational capabilities on both sides of the primary frontline.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSecurity forces from the Galmudug and Puntland administrations continue to clash in Galkayo, Mudug region. The Somali Federal Government (SFG) called for a ceasefire between the sides and is trying to initiate mediation talks. Puntland has since accused the SFG of providing Somali National Army (SNA) support to Galmudug’s security forces.

Outlook: Galmudug-Puntland tensions will prevent both security forces from focusing on countering extremist groups.

SecurityKenyan police arrested two individuals in Nairobi accused of spying for Iran and plotting terrorist attacks against Western interests in the country. Kenyan police are also searching for a British al Shabaab operative who recently entered the country. Iranian hostages held by Somali pirates in Mudug region escaped captivity, but the involvement of international forces in their escape remains unknown. Somali officials warned of possible attacks by pro-Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) militants in Puntland State’s territory.

Outlook: Kenya will likely conduct anti-al Shabaab operations in towns along the Kenyan-Somali border following recent al Shabaab attacks.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab is increasing its activities in Kenya. The group temporarily seized control of two villages this week and claimed to capture a third. The militants reportedly raised their flag in the villages and preached to residents before evading security forces and crossing back into Somalia. Al Shabaab militants also launched attacks against both Somali National Army and African Union Mission in Somali (AMISOM) military targets throughout Somalia.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely try to bait Kenyan forces into retaliating against settlements on the Somali-Kenyan border in order to exacerbate Somali-Kenyan tensions and expand its support base.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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PoliticalThe new director for the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) attempted to revive international support for the Libyan Government of National Accord, but neither the House of Representatives (HoR) nor the General National Congress (GNC) will permit discussion or votes on the unity government at this time.

Outlook: HoR and GNC leadership will continue to delay negotiations, despite pressure from the UN and blocs within both organizations.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA) began air operations in Ajdabiya in response to the recent intensification of ISIS Wilayat Barqa’s assassination campaign in the city. The LNA also intensified its airstrike campaign against extremist positions in Derna, Libya, and reportedly killed the Derna leader of Ansar al Sharia, Hamid al Sha’ari.

Outlook: The LNA will strengthen its presence near Ajdabiya in an attempt to prevent an ISIS takeover.

Ansar al Sharia and ISIS in LibyaISIS Wilayat Tarablus operatives detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) near the Emsellatta checkpoint outside of Khoms, Misrata, Libya. The attack, which was the second VBIED assault on Misratan forces in two weeks, indicates that ISIS Wilayat Tarablus is developing its operational capabilities within Libya Dawn territory.

The al Qaeda-linked Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna consolidated its forces to defend against further encroachment by ISIS Wilayat Barqa forces in the city.

Outlook: ISIS Wilayat Tarablus forces will continue to deploy VBIEDs and assault Misratan positions in an attempt to expand its sphere of influence from its base in Sirte.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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AQIM Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility for the October execution of two Tuareg tribesmen accused of spying for French troops, sending a warning to those who seek to undermine its influence in northern Mali. AQIM also published a eulogy for an Ansar al Sharia in Libya leader, demonstrating its continued support for the Libyan organization. Militant activity along Algeria’s southern border with Mali suggests continued cross-border movements of resources, people, and information. Outlook: AQIM will continue to reinforce its presence in Mali as it unifies the radical Islamist militants in the region.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)The Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) claimed the NOV 24 SVEST bombing in Tunis and distributed a graphic detailing its attacks in Tunisia this year. Interrogations of arrested militants since the Tunis attack revealed alleged ISIS-linked plots to create a national crisis. The Interior Ministry also placed a number of former Ansar al Sharia members and those returning from conflict zones under house arrest as a precaution. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade, an AQIM affiliate, remained inactive, likely due to heightened security throughout the country and along the Algerian border following the Tunis attack.

Outlook: If ISIS forms a formal wilayat in Tunisia, Uqba Ibn Nafa’a may increase attacks on military targets in an attempt to retain its role as the predominant jihadi organization in the country.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM-affiliated Ansar al Din launched rockets at a UN peacekeeping base in the Kidal region of northern Mali, killing three and wounding twenty. An Ansar al Din spokesman released a statement claiming the attack was in response to foreign intervention in Mali. The group continues to operate in the north and support two brigades operating in southern and central Mali despite suffering losses at the hands of French and Malian forces conducting clearing operations in the region. Outlook: Ansar al Din and its affiliates will continue to target UN, French, and Malian security forces as well as those who cooperate with these forces in order to destabilize the region and disrupt the implementation of the peace agreement.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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Regional Developments and DiplomacySupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of foreign plots to undermine Iraqi national unity by exploiting ethnic and religious differences during a meeting with Iraqi President Fuad Masum in Tehran on November 24. Khamenei also criticized U.S. policymakers for considering the possibility of “disintegrating Iraq.” On November 29, the Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati reiterated Iranian support for Syria’s central government during two meetings with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus. Velayati emphasized that Iran “will not accept” any peace plan without the Syrian government’s approval. Meanwhile, Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei criticized the reconstitution of borders as “detrimental to Muslims” and stated, “We have clearly said that absolutely no border must be changed and that no country can be broken apart.” Outlook: Iran will resist any peace plans for regional crises that involve the partitioning of Iraq or Syria.

Military and SecurityIRGC Public Relations Head Brigadier General Second Class Ramezan Sharif rejected reports on November 24 claiming that IRGC Qods Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani has been severely injured in Syria. Sharif emphasized that Soleimani is “energetically” and “cheerfully” assisting the resistance fighters in Iraq and Syria. On November 30, Soleimani personally dismissed the reports during an interview with Arabic language news outlet Al Waqt in his personal office in Tehran. Outlook: Soleimani’s potential injuries are unlikely to affect Iranian policy in Iraq and Syria.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

NOV 24: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of foreign attempts to exploit ethnic and religious differences in Iraq during a meeting with Iraqi President Fuad Masum.

NOV 24: IRGC Air Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh criticized “some officials” for not believing that the U.S. is “the real enemy of Iran.”

NOV 24: IRGC Public Relations Head Brigadier General Second Class Ramezan Sharif rejected reports claiming that IRGC Qods Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani has been injured in Syria.

NOV 24: The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s November 23 meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “one of the most important events in the history of the Islamic Republic’s foreign relations.”

NOV 25: Khamenei demanded that Iranian officials address the threat of foreign influence networks and criticized some officials for accusing the Basij Organization of being radical.

NOV 25: President Hassan Rouhani criticized the downing of the Russian fighter jet by Turkey as being in “the interests of the terrorists.”

NOV 27: Expediency Discernment Council Secretary and former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei criticized the possibility of reconstituting the borders of Middle Eastern states.

NOV 27-30: Funerals were held in several provinces for eleven Iranians killed recently in Syria, including an IRGC Brigadier General Second Class.

NOV 29: The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati reiterated Iranian support for Syria’s central government during two meetings with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus.

NOV 30: IRGC Qods Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani personally dismissed recent reports claiming that he has been severely wounded in Syria during an interview with the Arabic language news outlet Al Waqt in his personal office in Tehran.

24 – 30 NOV

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analyst emily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569