AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT June 24, 2015

2

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1

3

1. ISIS’s Wilayat Sana’a may have begun a Ramadan vehicle-borne improvised explosive device campaign targeting the al Houthis in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a. ISIS is probably seeking to inflame sectarian tensions in Yemen and elicit an overreaction from the al Houthis.

2. The Iranian regime continued to stress that it has not compromised on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s nuclear redlines ahead of the June 30 deadline to reach a final deal with the P5+1.

3. Al Qaeda-linked groups in West Africa may be attempting to coordinate against the threat of ISIS. There are reports of a recent rapprochement of AQIM and al Murabitoun leadership and AQIM’s religious scholars have issued statements chastising ISIS.

2

ASSESSMENT:

3

al Qaeda NetworkMembers of the al Qaeda network have issued eulogy statements for al Qaeda’s late general manager and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) late emir Nasser al Wahayshi. Al Qaeda affiliates al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al Shabaab, and Jabhat al Nusra have all released statements on Wahayshi’s death. Such statements should be taken as an indicator of continued membership in the al Qaeda network and there will likely be additional ones in the weeks to come. Separately, AQIM and Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s group issued statements denying his death. Al Qaeda may have lost part of a key node in the Caucasus with the reported defection of some of the Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus (IEC) groups to the Islamic State. Al Qaeda and the IEC have a long history and al Qaeda continues to message support for the fight there.

Outlook: The al Qaeda network will probably continue to consolidate as it combats the allure of the Islamic State. It is unlikely that affiliates and core leaders will defect to supporting the Islamic State, though the loss of associate groups will reduce al Qaeda’s overall network.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesAQIS claimed that American hostage Warren Weinstein and Italian hostage Giovanni Lo Porto had converted to Islam before being killed by an American drone attack in January 2015. In the statement, AQIS alleged that Weinstein had embraced jihad, was lovingly referred to as “Uncle Ishaq” by the mujahideen and was an ardent student of Islam. AQIS also posted pictures showing Weinstein (who was abducted from Lahore in 2011) after his conversion, including one of his death.

Separately, arrested militants claimed that a man named Umar Kaathio from Kotri is the head of al Qaeda in the Sindh. Pakistan police had arrested these militants for their involvement in the Safoora Goth carnage, in which 47 Shia Muslims were shot dead. The U.S. Treasury Department had designated Kaathio as a terrorist in 2013.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb continues to target militant strongholds in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Outlook: The Pakistani government will continue Operation Zarb-e-Azb with its final phase set to launch in July.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

4

PoliticalUN-led Yemeni peace talks in Geneva between the al Houthi movement and Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government ended on June 19 with a failure to achieve a humanitarian ceasefire and no date set for future talks. The UN stated a humanitarian ceasefire must be agreed on by the al Houthi movement and Hadi’s government before any new round of talks are scheduled.

Outlook: It is unlikely that a humanitarian ceasefire will be negotiated between the al Houthi movement and Hadi’s government due to both sides’ unwillingness to compromise on key issues.

SecurityThe al Houthi movement appears to be struggling to maintain control of territory as anti-al Houthi forces made minor territorial gains. Heavy clashes and shelling occurred within the cities of Taiz and Aden, where both groups are fighting for control over the cities. Heavy clashes also occurred within Ma’rib between the al Houthis and tribal militants. The al Houthi movement was also forced to withdraw to the Bayhan area in the Shabwah governorate.

Outlook: The ongoing Saudi-led campaign against the al Houthis coupled with strong local resistance may continue to push back the al Houthis from some territory in south-central Yemen.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS militants appear to have started a Ramadan vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) campaign against the al Houthis in Sana’a. ISIS Wilayat Sana’a detonated four VBIEDs targeting the al Houthis in Sana’a on June 17 and detonated another VBIED there on June 20. It is still unclear whether other ISIS Wilayats in Yemen will partake in the campaign. Separately, AQAP is continuing its efforts against the al Houthis in al Bayda in central Yemen. AQAP claimed credit for a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack against the al Houthis in Mukayras as well as a separate attack on al Houthi position in al Taffa.

Outlook: ISIS Wilayat Sana’a’s claim of five separate VBIED attacks in Sana’a this week as well as four separate attacks by AQAP in al Bayda is evidence that militant activity is likely to rise during the Ramadan period as each group seeks to expand its influence and benefit from the ongoing conflict in the country.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

1

1) 17 JUN: ISIS Wilayat Sana’a militants detonated four VBIEDs targeting al Houthis in Sana’a. ISIS claimed a fifth attack on June 20. 2) 18 JUN: AQAP detonated a series of IEDs targeting al Houthis in al Bayda. 3) 22 JUN: Popular Resistance forces repelled an al Houthi attack in Qataba region in al Dhaleh governorate. 4) 16 JUN: Al Houthis partially withdrew from Bayhan, Shabwah.

2

3

4

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSomalia’s federalization process continues to move forward as the 2016 deadline approaches. The central state building conference in Somalia approved the constitution of the new central state of Galmudug and swore in 60 members of the interim Galmudug parliament. The state’s capital will be located in Dhusamareb, which is currently held by the moderate Islamist group Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ). ASWJ opposes the recent developments and the Puntland president warned of the possibility of civil war if the Galmudug plan continues, citing violations of the federal constitution.

Outlook: Tensions resulting from the formation of Galmudug will likely continue, despite the participation of many local groups in the state building conference. Al Shabaab may use these tensions to their advantage, conducting attacks to undermine the federalization process in Somalia.

Security The Somali government and AMISOM increased security within the state in preparation for expected al Shabaab attacks during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which began on June 17. The Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) conducted a rare operation on an al Shabaab stronghold in southwest Somalia in retaliation for an attack by the group on an intelligence training center in Mogadishu.

Outlook: Somali troops and AMISOM will continue to increase their presence in the Somali capital as al Shabaab attempts to make gains in the region. NISA may conduct another operation targeting al Shabaab to protect Mogadishu and the Somali Federal Government’s legitimacy.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab has conducted numerous attacks in Somalia and Kenya since Ramadan began on June 17. Most of the group’s larger attacks, namely an attempted attack on the central state building conference and on a Somali intelligence training center, have been thwarted by security forces, but assassination attempts by the group on local officials have been largely successful.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to conduct asymmetrical attacks in Mogadishu during Ramadan and as the group continues to lose territory in southern Somalia to federal and African Union troops.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

6

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

77777

12

34

7

1) 17 JUN: Al Shabaab attempted to detonate an SVBIED in Galgudud region.2) 17 JUN: Fighting between al Shabaab, Somali troops, and Ethiopian AMISOM troops left 25 dead in Gedo region.3) 21 JUN: Al Shabaab attacked a Somali intelligence training center in Mogadishu.4) 22 JUN: NISA killed a senior al Shabaab member in Gedo region.

GULF OF ADEN

HORN OF AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

8

PoliticalLocal diplomatic efforts continued to see incremental success under the stewardship of the LNA’s Western Operations Room despite the UN’s ongoing silence on its efforts to implement a unity government between the internationally-backed House of Representatives (HoR) and the General National Congress (GNC).

Outlook: Inclusive reconciliation pacts will enable local militias to stabilize and rebuild with a focus on external threats although some localities in western Libya continue to resist the overtures of the HoR-allied cities.

SecurityLNA forces advanced into Ras al Hilal following ISIS’s expulsion from Derna, a coastal city in eastern Libya. The operation enabled the LNA to establish a corridor between Benghazi and Derna, as well as driving ISIS militants farther east from the city. Libya Dawn has resumed air campaigns against coastal ISIS positions in Sirte and Nofaliyah in central Libya.

Outlook: The LNA may seek to exploit ISIS’s recent setback in order to secure additional territory, which would be facilitated if it is able to gain cooperation from local militia forces.

Ansar al Sharia Libya and ISIS in LibyaThe 14 JUN USAF strike in Ajdabiyah may have impeded high level-decision making in Ansar al Sharia, but local elements have not lost any combat effectiveness, particularly in Benghazi, where Ansar al Sharia forces continue to hold off LNA incursions. ISIS-affiliated forces in Derna went into hiding following their expulsion from Derna last week, initially in Ras al Hilal and later in Fatahia, east of Derna, after LNA forces advanced towards Derna. An ISIS attempt to overrun an LNA outpost near Fatahia was unsuccessful.

Outlook: ISIS will face a challenge to regain its position in Derna, Libya, after being ousted. This may cause the group to use Ramada to regroup rather than to conduct an offensive campaign.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

9

AQIM AQIM appears to be increasing its religious rhetoric to combat ISIS’s expanding influence in West Africa. AQIM published 13 sermons from senior religious official Sheikh Bulaydi over the past month. Separately, ISIS reportedly accepted a pledge of allegiance from the Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria. Algerian authorities also stated their expectations of increased ISIS attacks during Ramadan.

Outlook: Algeria will probably see an increase in militant activity even though the beginning of Ramadan was quiet given the recent acceptance of Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria’s pledge of allegiance and ISIS’s momentum.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Tunisia continued its counterterrorism operations targeting ISIS cells throughout central Tunisia. Authorities arrested three suspects in connection to the ISIS-claimed Sidi Bouzid attacks and dismantled two terrorist cells in the Kasserine region and on the Libyan border. ISIS released its first official video directed toward Tunisians, which showed the historical role Tunisians played in jihadist movements.

Outlook: Tunisia’s counterterrorism efforts will likely shift away from the Libyan border to the urban areas along the coast and to the mountains in Kasserine due to increasing ISIS-linked activity in these areas.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM and Mokhtar Belmokhtar, leader of al Murabitoun, appear to be working together to combat ISIS’s growing influence in Africa, according to Algerian security forces. Both AQIM and al Murabitoun released statements denying the death of Belmokhtar, the target of a 14 JUN U.S. airstrike in Libya, indicating that Belmokhtar is likely alive. Separately, AQIM clashed with MUJAO outside of Gao, Mali, killing 14 MUJAO militants. MUJAO’s leader, Abu Walid Sahraoui, who pledged allegiance to ISIS in May, reportedly sustained severe injuries during the fighting.

Outlook: Violence between AQIM and groups allied with ISIS is likely to increase. The clash between AQIM and MUJAO suggests that MUJAO has completely split from al Murabitoun following its pledge to ISIS.

MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

10

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

10101010101010

1

2

43

1) 17 JUN: LNA forces advanced into Ras al Hilal, claiming former ISIS positions and direct access to Derna.2) 20 JUN: ISIS militants attempted to overrun a LNA-manned outpost near Fatahia.3) 22 JUN: Libya Dawn jets conducted airstrikes on Sirte, destroying the local ISIS HQ and killing 16 militants.4) 22 JUN: Libya Dawn jets conducted airstrikes on ISIS checkpoints in Nofaliyah, killing 8 militants.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

1

3

2

11

1) 16 JUN: Algerian authorities arrested Jund al Khilafa media administrator in Algiers, Algeria.2) 18 JUN: Tunisian authorities arrested three in connection to the June 15 ISIS-claimed Sidi Bouzid attack.3) 20 JUN: Tunisian authorities dismantled a seven-member terrorist cell in Medenine. The members were attempting to join terrorist groups in Libya.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 17 JUN: The Malian army killed 6 Massena Movement militants in Mopti, Mali.2) 16 JUN: Unconfirmed reports stated that six rockets hit the city of Aguelhok, Mali.3) 19 JUN: Unconfirmed reports stated that armed men attacked a MINUSMA convoy in Gao, Mali.4) 19 JUN: Pro-government militias withdrew from Menaka, Mali.

2

1

12

3 4

ASSESSMENT:

13

Domestic Politics and Security Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani on June 17 in Tehran. Khamenei cautioned Abadi against cooperation with the U.S., while Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani assured Abadi that the security of Iraq can be restored “within a short period of time.” Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli also announced that a trilateral meeting between Iran, Syria, and Iraq will occur in Baghdad in the near future. Fazli said that a central topic of the meeting will be the “continued ‘resistance front against Israel.'” Their statements underscore Iran’s attempts to urge Iraq to rely on it for support in the fight against ISIS and to undercut the Western projection of the ISIS threat lasting five to seven years.

Outlook: The regime will work to prevent Iraq from turning to the U.S. for support in the fight against ISIS .

Nuclear TalksDeputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that meeting the June 30 nuclear agreement deadline is not an obstacle to solidifying a “good and favorable” deal. As talks resumed last Wednesday in Vienna, IRGC Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi echoed IRGC Brig. Gen Massoud Jazayeri’s past comments forbidding foreign access to military sites. On Sunday, the Majlis passed a bill in favor of banning foreign access to military sites and lifting all sanctions the day of a final nuclear deal; however, it is unlikely this decision will alter Iranian policies in the negotiations.

Outlook: The regime will claim that the upcoming P5+1’s self-imposed June 30 deadline will not force it to compromise its redlines.

IRAN

14

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

16 JUNE – 22 JUNE 2015

16 JUN: IRGC Brig. Gen. Hadi Kajbaf, was buried in Shustar city Khuzestan province. Kajbaf was reportedly one of the first Iranians to fight in Syria and was killed on April 19 in Deraa province, Syria.

16 JUN: Deputy Foreign Minister of Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian presented Iran’s four-point plan to end the Yemen crisis during an emergency ministerial meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia.

17 JUN: Iranian lawmakers introduced legislation that seeks to protect the “nuclear rights and achievements of Iran” by requiring that any final treaty must immediately remove all sanctions, forbid access to military facilities, and must not include any limits on nuclear research.

17 JUN: The Supreme Leader's Representative to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Saeed Jalili claimed that “America’s imperialistic logic” in the past three decades has led to Iran’s mistrust of the United States.

17 JUN: Deputy Foreign Ministers Abbas Araghchi and Majid Tahkt Ravanchi resumed nuclear talks with E.U. Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs Helga Schmid in Vienna, Austria.

17 JUN: During a cabinet meeting, President Hassan Rouhani stressed “the government’s firm adherence to the guidelines of the Supreme Leader.”

17 JUN: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reassured Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi that the terrorists would be rooted out of Iraq during a meeting in Tehran.

19 JUN:  Deputy Foreign Ministers Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi met with their U.S. and E.U. counterparts in order to finalize the text of a comprehensive nuclear deal.  

21 JUN: Security forces in conjunction with the IRGC “destroyed the Ansar al Forqan terrorist group in Qasr Qand and Sarbaz, Sistan va Baluchistan province.”

22 JUN:  Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli emphasized during a meeting with his Syrian counterpart that Muslims in the region have a duty to fight terrorism by maintaining unity. Fazli and the Syrian Interior Minister signed a security accord during the meeting to enhance cooperation against ISIS.

22 JUN: Foreign Minister Javad Zarif claimed “differences remain” in the negotiations after he landed in Luxembourg to resume nuclear talks.

22 JUN:  The Artesh Navy 35th Fleet departed Iran for the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea following the return of the 34 th Fleet.

15

ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)

Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Possible military dimensions (PMD)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

16

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org (202) 888-6570

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569