2016 Election Dashboard

30

40

50

% of Vote

Trump

Clinton

9/2 9/12 9/22 10/2 10/12 10/22 11/1

45.1

42.3

11/5

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Probability of Winning

10/21

Clinton

Trump

84

16

11/5

65

35

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Clinton

ILNJ

WA

CA

NY

MA

MDOR

MNWI

VA

CTOther

216

Trump

TX

OKLA

ALKY

MO

INTN

SC

Other

164

Uncertain

AZCO

MI

OH

PA

GA

FL

NC

Other

158

-15

-10

-5

0

5%

S&P 500 Return

Actual

YTD Last 10

days

2

Forecast Clinton Win

0

43

Forecast Trump Win

-5-7

-3

-13

CMC Markets Macroeconomic Advisors Barclays

Market Impact

Polls-Plus Forecast

Electoral College Forecast

National Poll Average

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Source: Real Clear Politics

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Source: Bloomberg, Analyst research