ATLAS SIG Mass Tourism ATLAS SIG Mass Tourism Coventry, 14th may 2007Coventry, 14th may 2007

LOW COST TOURISM: LOW COST TOURISM: LENGTH OF STAYLENGTH OF STAY

Esther Martinez1 & J.M. Raya2

1.Universitat de Girona esther.martinez@udg.edu

2. EUM

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Tourism in Catalonia and SpainTourism in Catalonia and Spain Low cost tourism in Spain and Low cost tourism in Spain and

CataloniaCatalonia Duration of stay: previous researchDuration of stay: previous research The model and resultsThe model and results ConclusionsConclusions

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Europe: AEurope: Arrivals in LCC from rrivals in LCC from EuropeEurope

U.K.U.K. 23.2% 123.2% 1stst

Spain 15.8% 2Spain 15.8% 2ndnd

Germany 11.3% 3Germany 11.3% 3rdrd

% of flights for each company% of flights for each companyEasy Jet 22.3%Easy Jet 22.3%Ryanair 18.1%Ryanair 18.1%Air Berlin 19.5%Air Berlin 19.5% © E.M.

LC Flights: LC Flights: 29.7% of passengers 29.7% of passengers coming by aircoming by air

High concentration in few High concentration in few regions: regions: 92.3% passengers in LCC 92.3% passengers in LCC where in Catalonia, Balearics, where in Catalonia, Balearics, Andalusia, C. Valenciana, Canary Andalusia, C. Valenciana, Canary Islands, Madrid.Islands, Madrid. Catalonia: 3.8milions passengers Catalonia: 3.8milions passengers (24.6% of total Spain)(24.6% of total Spain) 25.1% increase in relation to 2004 25.1% increase in relation to 2004

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LCC arrivals, Catalonia, 2005

nº passangers % VariationU.K.Ryanair Ltd. 711.507 18,9% 41,1Easyjet 555.425 14,8% -3,8Other 180.264 4,8%Total 1.447.196 38,5% 13,7

GermanyRyanair 271.154 7,2% 27,5Air Berlin 161.213 4,3% 44,9Other 140.591 3,7%Total 572.958 15,2% 33,0

ItalyRyanair 395.374 10,5% 8,0Vueling 113.870 3,0% 1035,7Other 366 0,0%Total 509.610 13,6% 35,0

Other countries 1.231.017 32,7% 33,2

Total 3.760.781 100,0% 25,1

Font: IET, 2006: Las Cias. Aéreas de bajo coste en España, año 2005.

““AIR” TOURISM: LC vs. TRADITIONALAIR” TOURISM: LC vs. TRADITIONAL

EXPENDITURE , 2005LC TRADITIONAL

in % in %TRANSPORT 33,8 37,5ACCOMODATION 23,5 26,5FOOD… 7,3 4,3RESTAURANTS 19,7 15,5EXTRAORDINARY EXP. 0,7 1,5OTHERS AT ORIGIN AND DESTINATION 15,1 14,4TOTAL 100 100

PER TOURIST LC TRADITIONALeuros euros

TRANSPORT 158 273,5ACCOMODATION 157,2 277,9FOOD… 49,2 47,2RESTAURANTS superiorEXTRAORDINARY EXP.OTHERS AT ORIGIN AND DESTINATION

TOTALTOTAL AT DESTINATION same or higer

Source: IET, 2006

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Previous researchPrevious research Relevance of length of stay for:Relevance of length of stay for:

economic impacts (expenditure)economic impacts (expenditure) costs (e.g. hotels)costs (e.g. hotels) marketing, product configuration, destinations’ marketing, product configuration, destinations’ management…management…

Applied models of microeconomic analysis: Applied models of microeconomic analysis: probits, OLS..(probits, OLS..(Alegre&Pou, 2007; Gokovali, Bahar&Kozak, 2007;Alegre&Pou, 2007; Gokovali, Bahar&Kozak, 2007;

Fleisher&Pizam, 2002)Fleisher&Pizam, 2002)

Explanatory variables: socio-economic and Explanatory variables: socio-economic and demographical (e.g. life-cycle), cultural, demographical (e.g. life-cycle), cultural, destination attributes, prices, income, destination attributes, prices, income, time…time…

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Our modelOur model

Economic modelEconomic model Econometric modelEconometric model

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Economic modelEconomic model

Based in consumer model. Individual Based in consumer model. Individual data. data.

The consumer decides time to be The consumer decides time to be spent at destination depending on: spent at destination depending on: Income and time constraintsIncome and time constraints Prices Prices Preferences (age, marital status, Preferences (age, marital status,

country, ...)country, ...)

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Econometric model: parametric Econometric model: parametric duration modelduration model

Model the duration of stay or hazard Model the duration of stay or hazard (probability of abandoning or failure, (probability of abandoning or failure, i.e. leaving the destination) i.e. leaving the destination) conditioned on having been t periods conditioned on having been t periods at destination. at destination.

Conditioned on covariates Conditioned on covariates (explanatory variables)(explanatory variables) Proportional Hazard Function ModelsProportional Hazard Function Models Accelerated failure time modelsAccelerated failure time models

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Our model: log-logistic modelOur model: log-logistic model

Girona’s airport, 2005, survey.Girona’s airport, 2005, survey. Dependent variable: days (1-31)Dependent variable: days (1-31) Explanatory variables:Explanatory variables:

Socio-economics-demographics (age, sex, Socio-economics-demographics (age, sex, studies, occupation)studies, occupation)

Country (proxy for culture, climate...)Country (proxy for culture, climate...) Destination (“sun” or “city”)Destination (“sun” or “city”) Trip purpose (VFR, holiday, culture/shopping, Trip purpose (VFR, holiday, culture/shopping,

study)study) Type of accommodation (hotel, camping sites, Type of accommodation (hotel, camping sites,

own homes and F&R)own homes and F&R) Season: spring or summerSeason: spring or summer Organised trip/self organizedOrganised trip/self organized Travels alone/doesn’tTravels alone/doesn’t

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ResultsResults11 Time restrictionTime restriction

Age (Age (especially from 50especially from 50); ); summersummer ; ; self employedself employed Income restrictionsIncome restrictions

Age Age (specially from 50(specially from 50); ( age); ( age income); income); low/medium employedlow/medium employed

Price effectsPrice effects Camping sts., free housing, rented housesCamping sts., free housing, rented houses vs. vs.

hotelshotels PreferencesPreferences

Country (culture, promotion....): Country (culture, promotion....): Irish, Dutch, Belgians, FrenchIrish, Dutch, Belgians, French (a bit less) (a bit less) Italians, Germans, British Italians, Germans, British

Type of attraction: Type of attraction: urban tourism vs. “s&s” tourismurban tourism vs. “s&s” tourism Education: Education: primaryprimary vs. secondary and university vs. secondary and university

Not significant: sex, trip purpose, organized Not significant: sex, trip purpose, organized trip.trip.

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Survivor (days) by season

5,12

7,99

Summer Spring

Survivor (days) by destination

4,25 8,094,94

Girona Barcelona Sun andsand

Survivor (days) by accomodation

11,647,94

7,275,03

Hotel, 4-5*

Campingsites

rentedhousing

freehousing

Survivor (days) by age

7,24 10,049,066,79

≤24 50-59 60-64 65 ormore

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ResultsResults22

VARIABLE Survivor

COUNTRY

UK 6,21

Ireland 7,03

France 6,34

Holland 7,4

Belgium 7,52

OCCUPATION

Unemployed 6,83

L, own job 5,97

L, basic¬intermediate level 6,2

STUDIES

Basic 8,32

University 6,12

Total 6,63© E.M.

Examples Examples (extreme)(extreme)

Holland or Belgium, older than 50 Holland or Belgium, older than 50 years, camping site, summer, “s&s” years, camping site, summer, “s&s” destination:destination: E (length)= 14 days E (length)= 14 days (95% probability between 12 and 15 days)(95% probability between 12 and 15 days)

British or Italian, younger than 50 British or Italian, younger than 50 years, hotel 4-5*, spring, Barcelona:years, hotel 4-5*, spring, Barcelona: E (length)= 3 days E (length)= 3 days (95% probability between 2 and 4 days)(95% probability between 2 and 4 days)

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ConclusionsConclusions

Relevance of:Relevance of: Time, income and price constraintsTime, income and price constraints Socio-demographic and cultural effectsSocio-demographic and cultural effects Destination attributesDestination attributes

Important information for destinations Important information for destinations (marketing, product orientation, ...)(marketing, product orientation, ...)

Future researchFuture research

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