come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_taylor 27.02.2013

www.cebbis.eu …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

The CEBBIS project is implemented through the Central Europe Programme co-financed by the ERDF

Come progettare l’evoluzione tecnologica dell’impresa Stephen Taylor – Dirigente, Servizio Trasferimento Tecnologico AREA Science Park

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

sottotitolo presentazione

IDEA SVILUPPO

AZIENDA

PRODOTTO

RICERCA MERCATO

Dall’idea al mercato

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. SRI Cinque discipline

dell’Innovazione

Come garantire innovazioni di alto valore

=

Valrore per il cliente e successo per l’azienda

Creazione di Valore

Alineamento Organizzativo

Importante esigenza di mercato

Campioni

Team

Mirare al valore più alto possibile per il cliente

Usare “Best Practices” per innovare spinto da

miglioramento continuo

X X X X

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Business Intelligence

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Business

Intelligence

Wikipedia:

un insieme di processi aziendali per raccogliere ed analizzare

informazioni strategiche.

la tecnologia utilizzata per realizzare questi processi,

le informazioni ottenute come risultato di questi processi.

Questa espressione è stata coniata nel 1958 da Hans Peter Luhn,

ricercatore e inventore tedesco, mentre stava lavorando per IBM.

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Business Intelligence: raccolta ed elaborazione di dati da parte delle organizzazioni. “I dati raccolti vengono opportunamente elaborati e vengono utilizzati per supportare concretamente - sulla base di dati attuali - le decisioni di chi occupa ruoli direzionali (capire l'andamento delle performance dell'azienda, generare stime previsionali, ipotizzare scenari futuri e future strategie di risposta). In secondo luogo le informazioni possono essere analizzate a differenti livelli di dettaglio e gerarchico per qualsiasi altra funzione aziendale: marketing, commerciale, finanza, personale o altre.” (http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_intelligence)

Tool: SBI “Explorer”, mappe tecnologiche di settori innovativi.

Business

Intelligence


Intelligence

Un esempio di collaborazione internazionale di AREA:

Strategic Business Insights (SBI), uno spin-off di SRI

International, formerly Stanford Research Institute:

le Technology Map di Explorer

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

SRI International

SRI Worldwide Locations

SBI

More than 1800 scientists, technologists, engineers, and futurists worldwide

More than 100 disciplines

More than 1000 active research and consulting projects at any time

Service to more than 2000 client companies every year

Outsourcing of R&D

Dedicated management- consulting practice:

Pioneer of scenario planning for strategy development

Scan: Alerting clients to early signs of change

Explorer: Commercial opportunities from over 30 technology areas including electronics and IT, process and biotechnologies, energy and materials

The VALS™ typology for consumer acceptance of technology

Princeton

Menlo Park

London

Tokyo

Seoul

Washington, DC

New Technology

Spin-Off Companies

Firms like Nuance that provide commercial applications for SRI-developed technologies

SBI e SRI

International

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

- 11 -

HDTV

Pen-Input

Computing

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

MICR Encoding

for Checks

Mouse Input

Device

ARPA net

All Magnetic

Logic

ERMA Banking

Computer

Prototype

Optical Disk

Reading

Modem

Acoustic

Coupler

Scenario-Based

Planning

Halofantrine

Falciparum malaria

treatment marketed

by SmithKline and

the WHO

CBOT, CME

Hand-Held

Computer

Multimedia

Electronic

Mail

Hirudin

Small protein that inhibits

major blood-clotting, used

in the treatment of

cardiovascular disease and

cancer

Hypertext

Ink Jet Printing Continuous Speech

Recognition for

Telephone

Transactions

Telepresence Surgery

A new method of

performing surgery using

computer-mediated

surgical tools that provide

improved accuracy and

flexibility,

especially in minimally

invasive procedures,

and provide a future

technology platform for

remotely performing

surgical procedures

Information

Security

i4

SRI International: la

storia dell’innovazione

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Alcuni spin off

di SRI International

SBI - Strategic

Business Insights

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Explorer: le

tecnologie monitorate

Advanced Silicon Microelectronics

Biocatalysis

Biomaterials

Biopolymers

Biosensors

Connected Cars

Connected Homes

Engineering Polymers

Flat-Panel Displays

Fuel Cells

Genomics

Knowledge-Based Systems

Knowledge-Management Tools

Membrane Separation

MEMS/Micromachining

Mobile Communications

Nanobiotechnology

Nanoelectronics

Nanomaterials

Novel Ceramic/Metallic Materials

Optoelectronics/Photonics

Organic Electronics

Pervasive Computing

Photovoltaics

Polymer-Matrix Composites

Portable Electronic Devices

Portable Power

Renewable Energy Technologies

RFID Technologies

Robotics

Smart Materials

Solid-State Microsensors

User Interfaces

Virtual Worlds

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Opportunities: Applications

Le schede di

Explorer

Building Blocks of the

Technology

Commercial Development Parameters

Required Resources

• Partnering Capabilities

• IT Expertise

• Spectrum Licenses

• Funding for Research

and Development

Regulatory Factors

• Privacy

• Security

• LiabilityCompeting Technologies

• Current Computing Environment

• Human Tools

General Constraints

• Value Capture

• Standards and Interoperability

• Storage and Scalability

• Cost

Demand Factors

• Military and Government

• Industrial/Commercial

• Consumer

• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to

Machine, Machine to Environment)

• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,

Wi-Fi)

• Miniature Power Sources

• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing

• Software Architecture

• Identification of Nodes

5

4

3

2

1

Synergistic Technologies

Smart Spaces

PrivacyHuman-

Computer

Interfaces

Security

Intelligent

Agents

Software

Productivity

Standards and

Interoperability

Context

Awareness

BusinessModels

Medium

High

Low

Impact

MediumLow High

Uncertainty

Wireless

Networks

Issues and Uncertainties

Implications

Implications of Commercialization

A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in

the industry.

A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.

A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material

features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.

A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.

C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.

• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization

Emerging Commercial Opportunities

• Growth in GMO-Production Technology

• Application for Nanotechnologies

• High-Throughput Screening

Improvements

• Progress of Combinatorial Methods

• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free

Synthesis


• Product Formulation Improved by

Biopolymers

• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods

and Nutraceuticals

• Consumer Preferences Move toward

Convenience Foods and Functional and

Nutraceutical Foods

A

New technologies will lead

to novel biopolymers.

B

Biopolymers enhance food

qualities and production.

Opportunities: Business Environment

Players

Systems

• Network Infrastructure

— Cisco

— Siemens


— SRI International

— IBM Corporation

— HP Laboratories

— PARC

• Standards

— Bluetooth SIG

— IETF

— IEEE

Added

ValueEnabling Components

• Basic Node Components

— Intel

— Motorola

— Hitachi

• Interface Nodes

— Speech Works

— Philips Speech Processing

— Nuance

• Work Nodes

— Palm

— Sunbeam

— Matsushita Electric

• Mobile Autonomous Swarms

— Crossbow Technologies

— Xybernaut

• Smart Spaces

— Display Edge Technology

— Symbol Technologies

— Nokia

— NTT DoCoMo

• Personal Networks

— Sensatex

— Sony

— MIT Media Lab

Applications

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Capire la

tecnologia

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Capire i parametri di

sviluppo commerciale

Required Resources

• Partnering Capabilities

• IT Expertise

• Spectrum Licenses

• Funding for Research

and Development

Regulatory Factors

• Privacy

• Security

• LiabilityCompeting Technologies

• Current Computing Environment

• Human Tools

General Constraints

• Value Capture

• Standards and Interoperability

• Storage and Scalability

• Cost

Demand Factors

• Military and Government

• Industrial/Commercial

• Consumer

• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to

Machine, Machine to Environment)

• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,

Wi-Fi)

• Miniature Power Sources

• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing


• Identification of Nodes

5

4

3

2

1

Synergistic Technologies

Pervasive Computing

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

High

Medium

Low

Impact

High Medium Low

Uncertainty

Capire l’impatto potenziale

e le aree da monitorare

Pervasive Computing

Wireless

Networks

Smart Spaces

Privacy Human-

Computer

Interfaces

Security

Software

Productivity

Intelligent

Agents Standards and

Interoperability

Context

Awareness

Business

Models

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

- 18 -

Capire le implicazioni della

commercializzazione

Implications of Commercialization

A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in

the industry.

A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.

A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material

features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.

A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.

C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.

• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization

Emerging Commercial Opportunities


• Application for Nanotechnologies

• High-Throughput Screening

Improvements

• Progress of Combinatorial Methods

• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free

Synthesis


• Product Formulation Improved by

Biopolymers

• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods

and Nutraceuticals

• Consumer Preferences Move toward

Convenience Foods and Functional and

Nutraceutical Foods

A

New technologies will lead

to novel biopolymers.

B

Biopolymers enhance food

qualities and production.

Biopolymers

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

19 -

Le opportunità

Energy-Saving

Systems

Self-Repair Vibration

Control

Haptic

Orthopedics and

Prosthetics

Self-Powered

Monitoring

Devices

Smart and

Adaptive

Structures

Smart Structures

Aerospace and

Defense

Automotive

Medical

Engine, Drive-Train and

Suspension Components

Smart Mirrors Self-Repairing Coatings

Vibration and

Noise Control

NDTE Vibration Control

Actuators

Structural Monitoring

Minimally

Invasive

Surgery

Drug Delivery

Medical Analysis

Valves

and Seals Earthquake Dampers Noise Control

Motors and Actuators

Light and

Heat Control

Fasteners

Industrial, Power

and Construction

Industry Current Applications

Emerging Applications

Within 5 Years Within 10 Years

OPPORTUNITIES FOR SMART MATERIALS

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

- 20 -

Catene del valore

Title Title Title

Enabling Components Applications

Defense Systems

BAE Systems

Northrop Grumman

Raytheon

United Technologies

EADS NV

Key R&D and Funding

QinetiQ

DARPA

U.S. Navy

U.S. Army

SRI International

MIT

NASA

ORNL

Aircraft

Boeing

Airbus

Bombardier

Dassault

Saab AB

Hindustan Aerospace

Lockheed Martin

General Dynamics

Textron

Thales

Aerospace Components

Rolls-Royce

Smiths Industries

General Electric

Siemens AG

Textron

Magnetostrictives

Newlands Scientific

Etrema Products

Shape-Memory Alloys

•

Adapta

mat

Memory Metalle

NDC

Memry Corp.

Dynalloy, Inc.

Heraeus Materials Smart Polymers

Cornerstone

Bayer MaterialScience

Piezoelectrics

Many Suppliers

Research and

Development

Smart Materials

and

Components

Parts and

Systems

Aircraft,

Vehicles,

and Weapons

VALUE CHAIN FOR SMART MATERIALS IN AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE APPLICATIONS

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Scan: Open

Intelligence

Insight about the defining forces of the business environment

Peripheral vision for innovation

Frameworks—identification of threats and opportunities—for

successful strategies

Scanning for early signals of change

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Execute actions

triggered and

supported by the

intelligence activities

Create a list of most

important information

and trends to

systematically monitor

Study in depth those

items that require deep

understanding before

action takes place

Watch

Act

Study Focus

Most Systems Target Key

External Information

Identify the kind of

information that is

important strategically

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Most Businesses Excel In

Targeted Intelligence

Targeted Intelligence processes: Monitor topics identified through an internal company process or by key decision

makers

Track development of issues that have strategic importance

Stimulate and trigger decision making

Once important intelligence topics are identified, decision makers know how to analyze them— Where to go for more information

How to monitor changes

When to report back on new developments

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Scanning enables companies to look continuously across diverse sources

for new signals of change that may have an impact but are not yet on a

company watch list. Scanning brings many new ideas to light.

Scan

Watch

Act

Study Focus

Scanning:

Open Intelligence

Create a list of most

important information

and trends to

systematically

monitor Execute actions

Study in depth those

items that require

deep understanding

before action takes

place

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Scan is an Open

Intelligence Process

Open Intelligence processes:

Provide early warning about topics not yet identified as strategic

Continuously scan unstructured information about the external environment

Cluster data points into topic areas of possible strategic importance

Identify new topics of strategic importance (through sorting and ranking) that may require monitoring in the targeted process

Decision makers need a process to identify and apply intelligence from the volumes of unstructured external information in a way that is:

Continuous

Systematic

Refreshing to the targeted intelligence processes

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. The Process

Of Scanning

Scan

Insights

(on the

Scan

Web)

Scan

Insights

(on the

Scan

Web)

Scan

Insights

(on the

Scan

Web)

Scan

Insights

(on the

Scan

Web)

Signals of

Change

(on the Scan

Web and in

Scan

Monthly)

Signals of

Change

(on the Scan

Web and in

Scan

Monthly)

Signals of

Change

(on the Scan

Web and in

Scan

Monthly)

Signals of

Change

(on the Scan

Web and in

Scan

Monthly)

Analysis and

Research

Monthly

Scan

Meeting

Monthly Set of

100 Abstracts

Pattern

Recognition

Scanners

and Their

Abstracts

Consultatio

n on specific

Signals of

Change

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Scan™ Abstract

Origins

We look for

Faint signals of change

Discontinuities

Inflection points

Disruptive technologies

Outliers

Unconventional wisdom

In all arenas

Consumer behavior

Regulations/politics

Business processes

Culture

Public opinion

Science and Technology

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Abstracts about

Health Care

Abstracts about Advertising and

Retailing

Abstracts about

Manufacturing

Abstracts

about

EducationAbstracts aboutInformation Technologies

and the Internet

Finding Clusters Of

Related Abstracts

Wireless

Technologies

Privacy

Potential Defining Forces

Scan abstracts typically cluster around industry categories.

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Clustering

Close-up Scan provides a way to recognize interesting ideas and drivers of change across

industry categories.

How do these abstracts relate

to each other?

They all involve continuous monitoring.

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Prioritizing

Clusters

Act

Now

Wait

and

See

Requires

immediate

action

Continue to

Monitor Requires

study

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Benefits Of

Scan Process

Specific benefits: Provides advance warning of possible emerging technological, commercial, and

cultural trends

Fosters broad vision outside normal industry domains

Sets up an analytical framework for deflating media hype

Nurtures futures thinking more broadly in the organization.

Broad structural benefit: Scanning is a reliable way to navigate through the turbulence of change. It allows decision

makers to identify:

– What to watch

– What to study

– What to act upon now

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Scan

Insight about the defining forces of the business

environment

Peripheral vision for innovation

Frameworks—identification of threats and

opportunities—for successful strategies

Scanning for early signals of change

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Emerging

Technologies:

Next

Generation

Technologies

to identify

commercial

opportunities

from emerging

technologies Scan

for early signs

of change and

trends

Explorer

for continued

monitoring and

evaluation

5 to 15 years

before commercialization

0 to 7 years

before commercialization

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Establishing Your Own

Open Intelligence Process

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Key Success Factors For

Open Intelligence Systems

Require a senior level champion

Select Scan meeting participants carefully. They need: breadth of expertise

non-judgmental attitudes

a creative spirit

self-motivation

humor

Select a good facilitator

Capture the meeting discussion

Hold meetings on a regular basis

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Provide incentives for submitting abstracts and attending meetings (for example, a newsletter where cool ideas are reported)

Design a simple process for abstract submission (such as on-line submission)

Integrate the open intelligence process into the decision making process

Protect from “accountantitis”—the demand for documentation of a return on investment for the cost of the meetings.

Develop a regularly scheduled process for determining if/when watch list topics need to removed, studied and/or acted on

Key Success Factors For

Open Intelligence Systems

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Foresight

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Foresight is the application of a systematic, participatory,

future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision

building process to informing present-day decisions and

mobilising joint actions at the national and regional level.

(Miles and Keenan 2002)

Foresight


Foresight

Business Foresight: “processo sistematico partecipativo che

comporta la rilevazione di informazioni e la creazione di

visioni sul futuro a medio-lungo termine, destinato ad

orientare le decisioni del presente e a mobilitare i mezzi

necessari per azioni congiunte.” (Commissione Europea - Direzione Generale Ricerca)

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

FORESIGHT

TIPOLOGIA ATTORI

AREE DI

RICERCA OBIETTIVI

FORESIGHT

NAZIONALE

Paesi e

Istituzioni

Nazionali

Politica

Economia

Società

Dirige gli

investimenti di

una nazione

FORESIGHT

SETTORIALE

Centri di

Ricerca

associazioni di

categoria

Industria

Tecnologia

Disegno

Identifica trend

industriali

FORESIGHT

AZIENDALE Azienda

Industria

Tecnologia

Disegno

Prodotti

Da input alla

strategia

Da input alla

ricerca

Tipologie

di foresight

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Foresight

Politica pianificazione

& decisioni

Partecipazione & networking

Prospettive & futuri

Foresight

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Action oriented

Foresight is not only about analysing or contemplating future

developments but supporting actors to actively shape the future. Purely

analytical studies of possible futures without connection to possible actions

are not considered as Foresight.

Open to

alternative futures

Foresight assumes that the future is not pre-determined. The future can

therefore evolve in different directions, which can be shaped to some

extent by the actions of various players and the decisions taken today. In

other words, there is a certain degree of freedom to choose among the

alternative, feasible futures, and hence increase the chance of arriving at

the preferred (selected) future state.

Participatory

Foresight is not done by a small group of experts or academics but

involves a number of different groups of actors concerned with the issues

at stake. The results are disseminated among a large audience from which

feedback is actively sought.

Multidisciplinary Foresight provides an approach that captures realities in their totality with

all the variables influencing them, regardless of the type (quantitative and

qualitative).

Foresight -

caratteristiche

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN): mapping 50 foresight exercises

Obiettivi di

foresight

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

OUTPUT IMPATTI A BREVE

TERMINE

IMPATTI A LUNGO

TERMINE

• Report

• Elenco di tecnologie

importanti

• Priorita

• Roadmap

• Piani di azioni

• Visioni di futuri

desiderati

• Supporto nella

definizione della

strategia/politica

• Creazione di reti di

stakeholder

• Supporto alle decisioni

• Condivizsione del

commitment per

implementare decisioni

• Miglioramento del

processo per prendere

decisioni

• trasparenza

• legittimità

• Miglioramento del

processo per prendere

decisioni

• Capire e formare il

futuro

• Aumento della credibilità

e accettabilità delle

decisioni

• Riconfigurazione del

sistema

• Creazione di una

capacità per foresight

continuativa

Output e impatti

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Feasibility assessment

Scoping and design

Implementation

Follow up

Landscape Policy cycle Political support

Major design

decisions

Obtaining resources

Setting-up

Designing the

methodology

Defining the focus

Setting the objectives

Defining the users,

outcomes, scope, approach

Setting the time horizon

Setting the timeframe

Information gathering

Organisation design

Project team definition

Steering Committee def.

Communication strategy

Implementation plan

Methodological framework

Process:

Diagnosis

Prognosis

Prescription

Foresight methods

Costs

Funding

Skills and competences

Time Cost/Resources Quality/Scope

Dissemination Evaluation Activity plan

1

2

3

4

Il processo

di foresight

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Strategic Technology

Roadmapping

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

What are technology roadmaps?

How do I make one?

What would I do if I had one?

Ways to get started: Explorer to custom

technology roadmapping

Some project examples

Outline of

Presentation

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. What is a Technology

Roadmap?

• A road map sets out the landscape

• It shows us a number of different paths we can

take depending on the starting point

• Too many paths for any one person or company

to take simultaneously

• We must make a choice depending on where we

want to go and our objectives

• The pathway we end up choosing will depend on

a number of external and internal considerations

• Considerations such as:

The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one

the enabling

technology

the traffic

the weather

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.carforums.net/reviews/makes/pictures/Ferrari10.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.carforums.net/reviews/makes/Ferrari.html&usg=__7pDXMhG0bTCv_k7V6RPItaGfbyI=&h=653&w=1024&sz=154&hl=en&start=4&sig2=vFTjsCcxBt5AZQ-Jsk3fJw&tbnid=NiW-mgIGyGBD2M:&tbnh=96&tbnw=150&ei=U3scSYT_C5u0sAOO4aGmCA&prev=/images?q=ferrari&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.geekologie.com/2007/07/24/office-chair-bike.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.geekologie.com/2007/07/office_chair_bike.php&usg=__FwDJJIwzrJKMYj7Q9BQXuKM-GGc=&h=338&w=450&sz=22&hl=en&start=6&sig2=RWrayjK5jKPH5a0Y2eoZ6Q&tbnid=YooEkofP9qkWfM:&tbnh=95&tbnw=127&ei=zHscSYq8KI70sAPs7f2yCA&prev=/images?q=bike&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.star.le.ac.uk/~dbl/palermo/Pa170147.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.star.le.ac.uk/~dbl/palermo/&usg=__RiM6Oxl4Hd5zcTh70xn-AeU1rpo=&h=300&w=400&sz=24&hl=en&start=5&sig2=d1xPuLSn9Wsmml_nNP3U4Q&tbnid=ILXTJMZtuN-MIM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=124&ei=038cSbCyCJfysAO84-3JCA&prev=/images?q=traffic+italy&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.eontarionow.com/images/Rain.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.eontarionow.com/category/provincial/page/2/&usg=__2JwXzPWmI-whuh6vlROOSImV-hc=&h=338&w=506&sz=77&hl=en&start=1&sig2=mbkd1W3EVpEL4PG0Zk1wIA&tbnid=wrKsL4LcsRlcWM:&tbnh=88&tbnw=131&ei=U3ocSdm9Io70sAPs7f2yCA&prev=/images?q=rain&gbv=2&hl=en

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Where You Want to Go

Will Affect the Best Route

• There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations

• Some pathways may be shorter or better than others

• Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Monitor Progress and Events

to Decide if the Pathway

Remains Correct

• Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible…

• …But monitoring progress along the route and

potential events is advisable

• Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for

becomes a key capability

• Knowing……….

How to resolve conflicting signs

When a change in technology is required

What the showstoppers are!

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www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Technology Roadmaps

Are Not

Conceptually Different Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity,

an application or a technology

Time is the major axis and key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities

The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity

A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Now 2 Years 5 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Pathway Milestone

• Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure progress

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

…In Reality,

Roadmaps Can Take

Many Different Forms

Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus

The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional

requirements, the technology options and roadblocks

The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and

markets

These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind.

Technology

Time

Functionality

or metric

Unknown solutions: roadblocks Source: ITRS

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

We Focus on

Strategic Technology

Roadmaps

We mean that the roadmap is more

than just about technology

The roadmap must outline the

products and services, within the

opportunity, that businesses or

consumers would actually buy

It must relate product and services to

functional requirements and/or

technologies

It must describe key business

considerations that help us decide

what is the right pathway

The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here?

Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Business

Considerations

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. First Create a Profile of

the Opportunity

First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity:

What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?

What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?

What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?

What are the key uncertainties?

In project work, we typically use a standard profile template

Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service evolution and technology hurdles.

OPPORTUNITY DESCRIPTION

Need

Products/services

Markets

Value chain

Business Attractiveness

Potential revenue

Profitability

Competition

Regulations

Entry barriers

R&D requirements

Risk

Key Success Factors

Business model

Alliances/partners

Level of service required

Technology

Channels

Manufacturing

Marketing

ANALYSIS

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. From Profile to

Technology Roadmap

Conceptually, the various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap

In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product, market and technology progression and timing

Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling technologies are ready!!!

Opportunity Profile

Technologies &

Business Considerations

Technologies &


Products/Services

& Functions


Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Business

Considerations

Now 2 Years 5 Years


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Now 2 Years 5 Years


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Products/ Services 1

A B C

Products/ Services 1

A B C

Products/ Services 2Products/ Services 2Products/Services

A B C

Technologies1..…..

2..…..

3..….

Necessary

Features/Functions1..…….

2.……..

3. ….

BusinessConsiderations1..…..

2..…..

3. ….

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Example Roadmap

Roadmap for a Japanese multinational electronics company

Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business

considerations

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness

Considerations

Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92 B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

Industry Roadmap

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. From Industry Roadmap

to Company Pathway

First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options

Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move forward: to get

from A to B

When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out what we need to

consider to make the decision

Business consideration examples might include:

A missing core competence

A market uncertainty

A competitive threat or critical success factor

• The company pathway and

milestones chart the company’s

course

• Signposts are set up to make

sure we are on track and don’t

need to change course

• Programs like SRIC-BI’s

Explorer can help with signpost

monitoring

Pathway

Milestone

Yes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business

Considerations Need

Market

Competition

A B C

A B C

4 1 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap (Pathway)

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Roadmap Development

Recap

B103

B1


Considerations

Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92 B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

Industry Roadmap

Business

Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow

Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Business

Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1


Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Industry Roadmaps

• Set out key business considerations,

products/services, functions, and technologies for a

potential opportunity for commercialization

• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)

Company Path

• Selected strategy elements--business considerations,

products/services, functions, and technologies over

time

• Describes important business considerations and

products/services, etc. to be created

• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Now I Have a Roadmap,

What Do I Do With it?

Roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must

lead to action

Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging (and often

uncomfortable) than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies

A road map analogy again:

A road map helps you chart your journey

An action plan sets out:

Checking the weather before you start

Filling up the car with gas

Putting the snow tires on

Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………

Some actions may be more of a priority than others!

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Action Roadmaps

are Essential

• Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to

execute the pathway (strategy).

• Priority (short term) actions are highlighted.

• Key monitoring elements and signposts are described

B2

Products/Services

Functions/

Technologies &

Other Capabilities

Business

Considerations

(signposts)

Now 5 Years 10 Years3 Years1 Years

B1B3

B4

P3P1

P5

T4

P2

T6T7

P4

T5T3

T2T1

Action Roadmap

Continuous monitoring or improvement

Leads to next generation

Continuous monitoring or improvementContinuous monitoring or improvement

Leads to next generationLeads to next generation

Priority ActionsPriority Actions

B1: Verify need and initial target

B2: Monitor key threats

P1: Design and bundle initial product/service

P2: Test customer acceptance

Example

Pathway

Milestone

Yes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business

ConsiderationsNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap

PathwayPathway

MilestoneMilestone

Yes

This way

No

SignpostYes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business

ConsiderationsNeed MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service Development

• The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and

project, but two obvious different cases exist:

1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service

development

2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio

• In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close

examination of the business considerations

— Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges,

organizational issues, or consumer acceptance

— Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition

analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization

— In this example, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology

alliances can be easily formed

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio

For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the

focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other

capabilities

Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio

Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering

Products &

Services

Techs &

Other capabilities

Pro

du

ct a

Pro

du

ct b

Pro

du

ct c

Pro

du

ct d

Pro

du

ct e

Pro

du

ct f

Serv

ice a

Serv

ice b

Serv

ice c

Serv

ice d

Serv

ice e

Serv

ice f

Technology a X X X

Technology b X X

Technology c X X X X X X X

Technology e X X X X X X

Capability 1 X X

Capability 2 X X X X X X X

Capability 3 X X X X X X

Capability 4 X X X X X X X

Industry Level Roadmap 1

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other CapabilitiesDistribution Channels

Customer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3




Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3



Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3




Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3



Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3




Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3



Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3




Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3



Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3




Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3



Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies


A B C

A B C

41 2 3



Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps Technology Concept Analysis and Selection

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Roadmap Development

Recap

B103

B1


Considerations

Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92 B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

Industry Roadmap

Business

Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1


Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Business

Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1


Products/

Services

Function

Technologies

B5

B2

B6

B10 B17 B75

B71 B74

B30

B31

B32 B40

B33

B41B34

B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3

B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38

B39

B7

B8

B50 B54

B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58

B60

B14

B61

B67

B68

B18

B83

B84

B93

B22

B94

B95

B100

B114

B115

B116B112

B113

B108

B110

B111 B118

B47

B48

B49

B11

B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87

B86

B85

B90

B89

B88

B91

B92B97

B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16

B77

B15B12

B80

B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Industry Roadmaps

• Set out key business considerations,

products/services, functions, and technologies for a

potential opportunity for commercialization

• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)

Company Path

• Selected strategy elements--business considerations,

products/services, functions, and technologies over

time

• Describes important business considerations and

products/services, etc. to be created

• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored

Actions

• Displays and describes required actions to execute

Company Paths

• Highlights priority actions

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow 1 Yr

Business

Considerations

(Signposts)

Products/

Services

Functions/

Technologies

Actions

Z13

Z8

Z3

Z11

Z12

Z2

Z15

Z14

Z1

Z16

Z17

Z10Z9

Z18

Z7

Z5

Z6

Z4

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

What Does a Custom

Roadmap Mean in the

Context of Explorer?

• Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base

• The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for breadth

— Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology development, for many

products, industries and markets

— Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies

• By contrast, what we have discussed so far is a custom roadmap, created with an

individual organization in mind

• However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to

develop a customized roadmap

— To aid in developing the opportunity profiles

— To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors

— To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such projects

— To identify important areas to monitor

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Explorer is a Valuable Source

To Create the Initial

Opportunity Profiles

Monitoring

System

Customized Strategic Technology

Roadmaps

Signposts

Product/

Service

Functional Requirements

Technologies

Now 2 Years 5 Years


Need

Market

Competition

A B C

A B C

4 1 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Opportunity

Profiles

Milestones

Explorer’s Charts of Commercialization

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Roadmapping Example:

CIGS Solar Cells

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

The client, a government-funded laboratory, wanted to develop its strategy for a

particular type of solar cell: copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS)

CIGS has the highest efficiency of any current thin-film solar cell

The aims of the project were several fold:

Profile the industry

■ Understand the players, their technological approaches and business plans

■ Assess strengths of the patents of leading players (SRI support)

■ Develop an estimate of CIGS production capacity over 10 years

Assess the major cost contributions for CIGS solar cell production

Develop an industry roadmap showing major approaches, and identify a number of

strategic choices (pathways)

Project Outline: CIGS

Solar Cells

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Technology Map for Photovoltaics:

a Useful Starting Point

CIGS = Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide Source: SRIC-BI

PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS

2015Category

Residential and Commercial

Building Rooftops


Building Rooftops

2010

Crystalline

Silicon Cells

and Modules

Organic and

Nano-Based

Cells and

Modules

2006

Thin Film

Semiconductor

Cells and

ModulesOff-Grid Industrial and

Remote Power

Off-Grid Industrial and

Remote Power

Battery RechargersBattery Rechargers

Products

/Service

Opportunities

Business

Considerations

(CDP)

Regional and National

Energy Policies


Energy PoliciesRising Energy Demand

And Costs

Rising Energy Demand

And Costs

StandardsStandards

Energy StorageEnergy Storage

RecyclingRecyclingPolysilicon SupplyPolysilicon Supply

Areas to

Monitor

Government and State

Subsidies and Incentives



Renewable Energy

Technologies

Renewable Energy

Technologies

Rural Area

Financing

Rural Area

Financing

Organic Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells

Technologies

Flexible

Substrates

Flexible

SubstratesVacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition

Nonvacuum ProcessesNonvacuum Processes

Roll-Roll ProcessingRoll-Roll ProcessingNanoparticle ManufactureNanoparticle Manufacture

Ribbon/SheetRibbon/Sheet

Crystalline Silicon WafersCrystalline Silicon Wafers

Markets

ClothingClothing

MilitaryMilitaryAutomotiveAutomotive

Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote PowerOff-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power

Grid-ConnectedGrid-Connected

Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics

Nanotechnology Nanotechnology

EncapsulantsEncapsulants

ChinaChina

Advances in Manufacturing Advances in Manufacturing

Water Pumps Water Pumps

Cathodic

Protection

Cathodic

Protection

Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys

Telecommunications Telecommunications


Building Rooftops


Building Rooftops

Satellites and SpacecraftSatellites and Spacecraft

BIPVBIPV

BIPVBIPV

Rural Electrification Rural Electrification

Solar Parks Solar Parks

CPV SystemsCPV Systems



Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers Textiles

and Fabrics

Textiles

and Fabrics

MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors


Textiles and FabricsTextiles and Fabrics BIPVBIPV


Consumer

Electronics

Consumer

Electronics

Thin-Film SemiconductorsThin-Film Semiconductors Dye-Sensitized

Solar Cells

Dye-Sensitized

Solar CellsPolymer

Solar Cells

Polymer

Solar Cells

QD

Solar Cells

QD

Solar CellsPolymer Transparent

Electrodes

Polymer Transparent

Electrodes III-V

Solar Cells

III-V

Solar Cells

Thin-Film x-SiThin-Film x-Si

SpaceSpace

Thermo-PVThermo-PV

Semiconductor IndustrySemiconductor Industry

Remote PowerRemote Power

• CIGS is a thin-film solar cell

• The technology implicates a number of

enabling technologies

– Vacuum deposition

– Low cost nanoparticle synthesis and

wet chemical deposition

– Roll-to-roll processing

– Rigid and flexible substrates

– Encapsulation

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Additional Research Created a

More In-Depth Profile and Then

Client-Focused Industry Roadmap

Source: SRIC-BI

PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS

2015Category


Building Rooftops


Building Rooftops

2010

Crystalline

Silicon Cells

and Modules

Organic and

Nano-Based

Cells and

Modules

2006

Thin Film

Semiconductor

Cells and


Remote Power


Remote Power

Battery RechargersBattery Rechargers

Products

/Service

Opportunities

Business

Considerations

(CDP)


Energy Policies


Energy PoliciesRising Energy Demand

And Costs

Rising Energy Demand

And Costs

StandardsStandards

Energy StorageEnergy Storage

RecyclingRecyclingPolysilicon SupplyPolysilicon Supply

Areas to

Monitor





Renewable Energy

Technologies

Renewable Energy

Technologies

Rural Area

Financing

Rural Area

Financing

Organic Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells

Technologies

Flexible

Substrates

Flexible

SubstratesVacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition

Nonvacuum ProcessesNonvacuum Processes

Roll-Roll ProcessingRoll-Roll ProcessingNanoparticle ManufactureNanoparticle Manufacture

Ribbon/SheetRibbon/Sheet

Crystalline Silicon WafersCrystalline Silicon Wafers

Markets

ClothingClothing





Nanotechnology Nanotechnology

EncapsulantsEncapsulants

ChinaChina

Advances in Manufacturing Advances in Manufacturing

Water Pumps Water Pumps

Cathodic

Protection

Cathodic

Protection

Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys

Telecommunications Telecommunications


Building Rooftops


Building Rooftops

Satellites and SpacecraftSatellites and Spacecraft

BIPVBIPV

BIPVBIPV

Rural Electrification Rural Electrification






and Fabrics

Textiles

and Fabrics



Textiles and FabricsTextiles and Fabrics BIPVBIPV


Consumer

Electronics

Consumer

Electronics

Thin-Film SemiconductorsThin-Film Semiconductors Dye-Sensitized

Solar Cells

Dye-Sensitized

Solar CellsPolymer

Solar Cells

Polymer

Solar Cells

QD

Solar Cells

QD

Solar CellsPolymer Transparent

Electrodes

Polymer Transparent

Electrodes III-V

Solar Cells

III-V

Solar Cells

Thin-Film x-SiThin-Film x-Si

SpaceSpace

Thermo-PVThermo-PV

Semiconductor IndustrySemiconductor Industry

Remote PowerRemote Power

• The industry roadmaps contains the major approaches

• It forms the basis for selecting a pathway

Source: SRIC-BI

2015Category 20102006

Thin Film

Semiconductor

Cells and


Remote Power


Remote Power

Products

/Service

Opportunities

CIGS

Technology

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition

Roll-Roll ProcessingRoll-Roll Processing

Nanoparticle ManufactureNanoparticle Manufacture

Markets

ClothingClothing





EncapsulationEncapsulation


Building Rooftops


Building Rooftops

Satellites and SpacecraftSatellites and SpacecraftBIPVBIPV




and Fabrics

Textiles

and Fabrics MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors

Consumer

Electronics

Consumer

Electronics

SpaceSpace

SputteringSputtering

GlassGlass

Metal FoilMetal Foil

PolyimidePolyimide

ElectrodepositionElectrodeposition

PrintingPrinting

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation

Low-Temp Nanoparticle ManufactureLow-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture

Indium recyclingIndium recycling High Indium EfficiencyHigh Indium Efficiency

Large-area

Polyimide

Large-area

Polyimide

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

CIGS Industry Roadmap

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Market Development and

Costing

Patent analysis can highlight

the pros and cons of different

technology approaches and the

likely risk

A business consideration

would be how CIGS is likely to

fare on a cost basis, and what

approaches can lead to

improvements in cost Player profiles highlight the

technology state of the art and

investment plans

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Different Pathways

Were Developed 201520102006

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition





GlassGlass


PolyimidePolyimide


PrintingPrinting

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation



Large-area

Polyimide

Large-area

Polyimide

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

201520102006

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition





GlassGlass


PolyimidePolyimide


PrintingPrinting

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation



Large-area

Polyimide

Large-area

Polyimide

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

201520102006

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition





GlassGlass


PolyimidePolyimide


PrintingPrinting

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation



Large-area

Polyimide

Large-area

Polyimide

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

Source: SRIC-BI

2015Category 20102006

Thin Film

Semiconductor

Cells and


Remote Power


Remote Power

Products

/Service

Opportunities

CIGS

Technology

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition



Markets

ClothingClothing







Building Rooftops


Building Rooftops

Satellites and SpacecraftSatellites and SpacecraftBIPVBIPV




and Fabrics

Textiles

and Fabrics MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors

Consumer

Electronics

Consumer

Electronics

SpaceSpace


GlassGlass


PolyimidePolyimide


PrintingPrinting

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation

Roll-to-Roll Module

Encapsulation



Large-area

Polyimide

Large-area

Polyimide

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

Roll-to-Roll

BIPV

• The pathways reflected different technology choices and their

migration over time

Pathway 1

Pathway 2

Pathway 3

In this project, three distinct technology pathways were charted

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Selection of Strategic Options

• In this project, each of the strategic options, or

pathway options, was accompanied by the

following:

— A description of the strategic focus

— Associated risk profile

— Short and medium term R&D goals

— Potential alliance partners

— Areas to monitor

2015 2010 2006

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition

Roll - Roll Processing Roll - Roll Processing

Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture

Encapsulation Encapsulation

Sputtering Sputtering

Glass Glass

Metal Foil Metal Foil

Polyimide Polyimide

Electrodeposition Electrodeposition

Printing Printing

Roll - to - Roll Module

Encapsulation


Encapsulation

Low - Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Low - Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture

Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency

Large - area

Polyimide

Large - area

Polyimide

Roll - to - Roll

BIPV

Roll - to - Roll

BIPV

2015 2010 2006

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition





Glass Glass


Polyimide Polyimide


Printing Printing


Encapsulation


Encapsulation



Large - area

Polyimide

Large - area

Polyimide

Roll - to - Roll

BIPV

Roll - to - Roll

BIPV

2015 2010 2006

Vacuum

Deposition

Vacuum

Deposition





Glass Glass


Polyimide Polyimide


Printing Printing


Encapsulation


Encapsulation



Large - area

Polyimide

Large - area

Polyimide

Roll - to - Roll

BIPV

Roll - to - Roll

BIPV

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


Pathway

Assessment

Pathway Options





www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Roadmapping Example:

Waste Heat Recovery

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

“For a typical car with an internal combustion engine, around 70% to 80% of energy

produced by the engine is wasted as heat…”

The client, an automotive company, wanted to develop an industry roadmap and

strategy (pathway) for waste heat recovery (e.g. exhaust)

The client wanted to better understand the competitive environment and state-of-the-

art, and commissioned SRIC-BI to:

• Study activities and approaches to heat-recovery technologies

• Understand the current industry view of the commercialization of heat-recovery systems

• Develop an industry-level roadmap that linked product development with functional needs

and enabling technologies.

Project Outline:

Automotive Waste

Heat Recovery

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Web and Literature Review. Conducting a literature search to build up a picture

of key trends, developments; players active in the technology area;

identification of industry experts

Qualitative Patent Search. Conducting a search of patents to identify

technologies and players active in the area of heat recovery

Quantitative Analysis of Papers and Patents. To provide an indication of the

relative activity within each technology approach.

Patent Analysis: Players

and Technology

Approaches

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Understand the

Competition

Player profiles can help in terms of understanding technology and market development as an input to the roadmap

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Understanding

Industry Viewpoints

Selected industry experts and companies can then be short listed for interview to gain further inputs to the roadmap development

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

2008 2012 2010 2018 2014

Example Products Section of Industry Roadmap

P2

Toyota Prius

(Heat Storage) [1]

Vehicles

Systems

2016

P3

Toyota Estima

(Heat Recovery) [1]

P1

BMW

LHB

P8

Rankine system in vehicle [1]

P4

1st Generation

Thermoelectric modules in vehicle

P9

2nd Generation

Thermoelectric

Product Introduction

P12

Heat

Storage

P23

Waste Heat

Regeneration System

P10

LHB

P18

Commercial TEG

Modules [A]

P6

Full Size Truck (Thermoelectric)

P22

Auto

TEG Modules

P11

Rankine

System

Commercial Products

P5

2000cc Sedans with

15% Improvement in Fuel Economy

Fuel Reforming Thermoelectric Thermo-fluid Heat Storage

P5

2000cc Sedans with

15% Improvement in Fuel Economy

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Thermoelectric Module and System Technologies

Thermoelectric Materials Technologies

Technologies and Functionalities

2010 2015 Existing

TT15

Conventional

Bulk BiTe

TT18

Nanoscale BiTe

TT16

Conventional

Bulk PbTe

TT6

TE Systems

+100W

TT12

TE Systems

Approx kW range

TT11

TE Systems

+250W

TT19

Nanoscale PbTe

Existing materials Nanoscale materials

TT22

Skutterudites

TT20

TAGS

TT21

Clathrates

TT23

Oxides

Next-generation materials [1]

TT1

BSST

TT4

NEDO

TT2

General Motors

TT14

TE Systems

Multi-kW Range

TT3

IHI Corp.

TT13

Advanced Module

Designs

Prototype Modules

TT7

Segmented Module

Designs

TT24

High Power

Density Materials

TT5

Hi-Z

TT8

Interfaces:

Improvement

in Durability

TT9

System Modeling

System

TT17

Other

Bulk Materials

TT10

Subsystem

Technologies

2018>

TT14

TE Systems

Multi-kW Range

TT21

Clathrates

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

Technology

Roadmapping Summary


Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Business

Considerations

Now 2 Years 5 Years


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Now 2 Years 5 Years


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Industry roadmaps

set out the landscape,

showing the options

or paths that can be

taken

Without action and

innovation you won’t

get anywhere!

The pathway sets

out the route to be

taken, and highlights

the things that need to

be monitored to stay

on course

Pathway

Milestone

Yes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No


PathwayPathway

MilestoneMilestone

Yes

This way

No

SignpostYes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business


A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

Functional

Requirements

Technologies

Business

ConsiderationsNeed MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No


www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

What is a Value Proposition?

APPROACH

BENEFITS/

COSTS

COMPETITION/

ALTERNATIVES

CUSTOMER NEEDS IMPORTANT Quantitative

Value

Proposition

Important

Customer /

Market Needs

Quantitative

Client Benefits

Unique

Approach

Competitive

Approaches

Full Business Plan

www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. What Initial Value

Propositions Look Like

n A b c Typical from technical folks

N a b C What managers want to see at first

www.cebbis.eu ……………………………………………………………………………………….

come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_taylor 27.02.2013

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