COVER STORY AUGUST 22, 2005 | WESTERN STANDARD25

KEVIN STEEL

It wasn’t just whatthe bumper stickersaid, but where it

was placed and what it was stuckon. The white rectangle that read,

“One hundred years is long enough,”followed by the website address,www.separationalberta.com, was high up in the rear window of a shiny new, high-end SUV driving through sup-posedly Liberal downtown Edmonton—not on a dusty old pickup truck in a smallprairie town. And at the wheel was asmartly-dressed soccer mom, her twokids seated behind her, though obscuredby the tinted side windows. These days,western independence has a new face. Amovement that was once restricted towhat central Canadians might call theredneck fringe, has managed to spread towesterners who are, in many cases,urbane, white collar and increasingly tooyoung to be nursing any grudges over theNational Energy Program. What’s more,sympathy for breaking up the countryalong east-west lines is no longer strictlysomething you’ll find in Alberta. Morethan ever, support for separation is grow-ing all across the West.

That’s the conclusion of a WesternStandard poll, which found that a recordnumber of people in all four westernprovinces say they are willing to look atseparating from the East. According tothe poll, which was conducted in July,

using random selection methods, 35.6 percent of westerners agreed with the statement: “Western Canadians shouldbegin to explore the idea of forming theirown country.” How serious is that? InQuebec, measures of separatist sentiment often find about 37 per cent ofQuebecers endorsing independence(though, at times, the numbers have risenas high as 55 per cent, as was the casewith a poll conducted by the newspaperLa Presse in July).

The research, which was conducted bypollster Faron Ellis, a political scienceprofessor at the Lethbridge CommunityCollege, was commissioned by theWestern Standard to determine how wellthe federal government under PrimeMinister Paul Martin has been managingthe issue of western alienation—some-thing that Martin promised to reduce aspart of his 2004 election campaign. Itdemonstrates the highest support levelfor separation ever recorded in anyprovince. Historically, separatist senti-ment has been estimated in Alberta tohover in the single digits. In fact, 42 percent of Albertans now say they are will-ing to consider the idea of forming a newnation, independent of Ottawa. InSaskatchewan, 31.9 per cent expressed awillingness. Residents of B.C. andManitoba were the least likely to saythey would consider separation, butsignificant numbers in both provincesnevertheless expressed sympathy withthe separatist cause: 30.8 per cent and

A nationAn exclusive

Western Standard

poll shows more

than a third of

westerners are

thinking of

separating from

Canada.

What’s dividing

the country—and

can anything be

done to save it?

An exclusive

Western Standard

poll shows more

than a third of

westerners are

thinking of

separating from

Canada.

What’s dividing

the country—and

can anything be

done to save it?

26

27.5 per cent, respectively. The poll wasconducted around Canada Day, betweenJune 29 and July 5, 2005, when sentimentfor federation should have been runningat its peak. It sampled 1,448 adults andhad a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Remarkably, notes pollster Ellis, thegreatest support for separation existedamong young people, not the stereo-typical embittered Albertan codger.Thirty-seven per cent of those betweenthe ages of 18 and 29 were open to thenotion of breaking away from Canada.“Interestingly enough, in that age group,they haven’t had the major constitution-al or federal touchstones like previousgenerations,” Ellis says. “Their psychehasn’t been ingrained by major constitutional crises, such as the previousgenerations.” Thirty- and forty-year-olds witnessed the constitutional crises thatwere the Charlottetown and MeechLake accords, and older groups willremember the NEP.“But with 10 years of relative constitutional peace, to havehigh numbers in that [youngest] generation . . . those youth numbers aresurprising,” he adds.

Meanwhile, the baby boom generation (those betweenthe ages of 45 and 64)expressed the lowestsupport for

separation of all the age groups, at 33.7per cent—likely because they worry thatpolitical instability could disrupt thecomfortable lives many have established,speculates Ellis. “The Gen X and lateboomer crowd is more entrepreneurialand less materialistic [than babyboomers] in a lot of ways,” he says. ButAndrew Sullivan, vice-president ofOttawa-based EKOS ResearchAssociates, which regularly polls Quebecfor separatist sentiment, also notes thatyounger voters are typically the leastlikely to get mobilized. “That age group[18–29] may sound enthusiastic, but theyare also the least likely to show up to thepolls. In other words, they don’t walk thetalk,” he says.

Darrel Stinson, Conservative MP forNorth Okanagan–Shuswap, says he’snot surprised by what appears to be an increasing trend toward pro-separatist politics in the West.Elected in the 1993 election as part of the first

major wave of Reform Party politicianssent to Ottawa, Stinson says westernersare increasingly pessimistic that theirvoices are being heard federally. “WhenReform first started, it was more of amovement than politics. When all thattook place, there was a feeling that wewere finally going to have a say inOttawa, but we got shut out in a numberof areas,” he says. A catalogue of recentoutrages in Ottawa—the sponsorshipscandal, the billion-dollar gun reg-istry, Martin’s ability to cheatthe non-confidence vote,including the imple-mentation of a tax-a n d - s p e n dbudget to

A nationtorn apart

AUGUST 22, 2005 | WESTERN STANDARD COVER STORY

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COVER STORY AUGUST 22, 2005 | WESTERN STANDARD27

MIKE RIDEWOOD, OPPOSITE PAGE: PHOTOS.COM

appease the NDP—has frustrated west-erners further, especially since Liberalsupport continues to remain high else-where in Canada, according to publicopinion polls. In the Western Standardsurvey, 38 per cent of respondents saidthat the details uncovered in the sponsorship scandal have contributed totheir willingness to consider separation(27.2 per cent said it decreased it, and34.8 per cent said it had no impact).Thirty-eight per cent said “the manner in which the Liberals won the budget confidence vote” (the question specifically mentioned Martin’s “secur-ing [former Tory MP] Belinda Stronach’sdefection to the Liberals and a budgetdeal with the NDP”) had the sameinflammatory effect. A total of 25.9 percent said the vote diminished their independent streak, and 36.6 per centsaid it had no effect. “When you talk topeople out here, they figure the East isgoing to keep putting in the crooks justto keep the West out,” says Stinson, whois battling cancer and has announced hewill not run again in the next election.“And that just builds animosity. If theLiberals form another government, Ithink you’ll see it [separatist sentiment]come to the forefront. It will erupt.”When asked how a Liberal victory inthe next federal election would impacttheir sympathies toward separation,40.4 per cent of all westerners said it would make them more likely to

support independence (24 per cent saidit would make them less likely to consider it, with the remainder saying itwould have no impact).

“There is a deep and troubling realization that all of the effort of theReform Party—‘the West wants in,’ democratic reform, fiscal and socialresponsibility—all of that effort of thelast 20 years appears to have achievedvirtually nothing,” says Ted Morton,MLA for Calgary Foothills–Rockyview,on leave from his position as a professorof political science at the University ofCalgary. “On fiscal responsibility they[the federal Liberals] just spent $28 billion in 28 days after the budget. Onsocial responsibility they just enacted homosexual marriage against demon-strable opposition from the Canadianpeople. On democratic reform they justappointed three nobodies to the Senatedespite the fact that we [Albertans] justelected three new senators,” Mortonnotes. Add to that the prospect thatdespite the revelations of corruptionfrom Gomery and the kickbacks and lies,Morton says that voters in Ontario areprepared to re-elect them, and it’s nowonder people are asking, “What’s thepoint of sticking around?”

Though a majority of westerners—56.8per cent—say the prime minister hasdone a “poor job” of fixing the democrat-ic deficit (another of his main electioncampaign planks) and a whopping 64 per

cent say he has done a “poor job” at ending western alienation, Ellis believesthat the increasing attractiveness of theseparation option is the result of a combination of factors. In addition to adisaffection with Martin in particular,westerners are coming to believe thatother methods of effecting politicalchange have been tried repeatedly withno success. “From Western leaders of federal parties like Joe Clark and theConservatives, compromising on theleadership with Mulroney, that didn’tchange anything,” says Ellis. “Havingpowerful ministers in the cabinet didn’tchange anything. Having Lougheed—andthen Klein, to a lesser extent—stand upfor the province, that didn’t fix any fundamental injustices. Starting aWestern party—well, you can’t succeed ifyou are regional. We’ve been throughthat. All conceivable options for manywesterners that can be tried have beentried and seem to have failed. So you areleft with no options,” Ellis says.

Patrick Beauchamp, chairman of theAlberta Residents League, a group thatin the past has flirted with support forseparation, believes there is an optionthat hasn’t been tried: the AlbertaAgenda. That’s the plan in which aprovince such as Alberta could take aseries of steps to reduce the influence ofthe federal government, like establishingits own police force, collecting its own tax,and setting up a separate pension plan.These measures, he says, could provide arelease valve for the building separatistsentiment. “We’d like less Ottawa andmore Alberta. That means strengtheningAlberta within Confederation and wethink every province should do the same.Ottawa has just stuck its nose in too farinto provincial matters. On the socialside, they’re sticking it in further everyday,” Beauchamp says.

Morton, who happens to be one of theauthors of the Alberta Agenda, or “fire-wall” idea, says that without hisprovince—and potentially other westernprovinces—taking steps to alleviate citizens’ growing angst over provincial–federal relations, the results could betragic. “I am as opposed to the status quo as anybody, but the solution isn’t separatism,” says Morton. “Properly configured, Canada as a whole can play alarger, more productive role in bothworld affairs and North American trade

How much do you agree with the following statement: “WesternCanadians should begin to explore the idea of forming their owncountry”?

By Gender Male Female All RespondentsAgree 42.7 28.7 35.6Disagree 57.3 71.3 64.4

By Age 18–29 30–44 45–64 65+Agree 37.2 36.1 33.7 36.3Disagree 62.8 63.9 66.3 63.7

By Province B.C. Alberta Saskatchewan ManitobaAgree 32.1 43.0 33.6 28.8Disagree 67.9 57.0 66.4 71.2

Western Independence

28AUGUST 22, 2005 | WESTERN STANDARD COVER STORY

How effective do you think PrimeMinister Paul Martin’s governmenthas been at eliminating the demo-cratic deficit since being electedone year ago?

Poor 56.8%Good 43.2 %

How effective do you think theMartin government has been atending western alienation sincebeing elected one year ago?

Poor 64.0%Good 36.0%

How much has the Gomery inquiry testimony impacted your opinion ofwestern Canadians exploring theidea of forming their own country?

Increased 38.0%No impact 34.8%Reduced 27.2%

How much did the manner in whichthe Liberals won the budget confi-dence vote impact your opinion ofwestern Canadians exploring theidea of forming their own country?

Increased 37.5%No impact 36.6%Reduced 25.9%

What impact would a Liberal re-election likely have on your opinionof western Canadians exploring theidea of forming their own country?

Increased 40.4%No impact 35.5%Reduced 24.0%

and defence issues. And there are important parts of Canadian history thatall Canadians are proud of.”

Bruce Hutton, leader of the SeparationParty of Alberta—the organizationbehind the “A hundred years is longenough” bumper sticker—says that whilemore than a third of westerners may bephilosophically inclined toward separa-tion, many may feel too comfortableright now, with the economy strong, toactually get behind a full-fledged inde-pendence movement.“One of things thatmakes it [separation] a hard sell is thatwe have to get people to think of thefuture, not the present, in order to sellour message,” says Hutton. “That’s atough thing to do. Right now there’s aboat in the yard and an SUV and a trav-el trailer and steaks on the barbecue, soit’s a tough sell when you say to someonewe’re in trouble and we have to fix this.”But with a third of western Canadiansalready indicating they’re ready to talkthe talk on separation, it may just be amatter of the right economic circum-stances—perhaps, given the soaring priceof oil, something like another NationalEnergy Program—before they walk thewalk and march right out ofConfederation once and for all.

Contributing factors