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Ed DammersCopenhagen, 12 November 2013
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Usability of scenarios in
different domains of
policy-making
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Reasons
• PBL intends to publish a manual for using scenarios in September 2014
• Using scenarios appears to be difficult:- use of one scenario as quasi prognosis- taking only optimistic or pessimistic scenarios
into consideration- more instrumental than fundamental learning
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Content
• Usability of scenarios in general• Usability for:
- Adaptive management- Cost-benefit analysis- Transition management- Societal debate
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Usability in general
• Cognition • trends, mutual relations and impacts• wild cards, conditions and
impacts• alternative policies and
impacts
• Communication • stimulate open discussions• structuring discussions
• Commitment • provide support for current policy• inspire to choose alternative
policy
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Adaptive management
• Making flexible decisions, anticipating future developments
• Defining pathways instead of fixed future situations
• Taking current policy as a starting point and focusing on tipping points: incremental changes
• Monitoring current developments
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Adaptive management
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Roles of scenarios
• Exploring future developments and possible tipping points
• Taking (cognitive) uncertainty into consideration
• Integrated approach, e.g. water management, agriculture, and nature development
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Cost-benefit analysis
• Integrated assessment of physical and other projects
• Providing an overview of societal costs and benefits
• Project alternatives are compared to a reference alternative
• All impacts are expressed in terms of money (or PM)
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Cost-benefit analysis
The winning alternative was the most expensive one, butalso the most profitable one
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Roles of scenarios
• Exploring future developments and their impacts on a project’s costs and benefits
• Taking (cognitive) uncertainty into consideration
• Integrated approach: impacts of economic growth, demographic development, urbanisation, mobility, etc.
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Required characteristics
Adaptive management and cost-benefit analysis require scenarios that are: • moderately explorative• descriptive• highly quantitative• plausible
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Transition management
• Focusing on fundamental changes: transitions
• Building visions that challenge current policy
• Embodying (very) long-term ambitions: normative
• Focusing on alternative strategies: pathways
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Adaptive management
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Roles of scenarios
• Exploring long-term policy challenges: agenda-setting
• Exploring various policy alternatives: innovate thinking
• Providing insights in the feasibility of the alternatives: robustness and flexibility
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Societal debate
• About an issue which is high on the societal and political agenda
• High cognitive and normative uncertainty (high conflict level), e.g. nuclear energy, genetically modified food, financial crisis
• Organised via public meetings, public media, the internet, social media, etc.
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Societal discussion
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Roles of scenarios
• Exploring future developments and policy challenges they may generate
• Exploring policy alternatives and their intended and unintended impacts
• Structuring the discussion and limiting conflicts
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Required characteristics
Transition management and societal debates require scenarios that are:• highly explorative (incl. wild cards)• descriptive as well as normative• qualitative as well as quantitative• highly inspiring / plausible
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Questions?
Reflections?
Suggestions?
Remarks?
Do you have any…