Ed DammersCopenhagen, 12 November 2013

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Usability of scenarios in

different domains of

policy-making

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Reasons

• PBL intends to publish a manual for using scenarios in September 2014

• Using scenarios appears to be difficult:- use of one scenario as quasi prognosis- taking only optimistic or pessimistic scenarios

into consideration- more instrumental than fundamental learning

3

Content

• Usability of scenarios in general• Usability for:

- Adaptive management- Cost-benefit analysis- Transition management- Societal debate

4

Usability in general

• Cognition • trends, mutual relations and impacts• wild cards, conditions and

impacts• alternative policies and

impacts

• Communication • stimulate open discussions• structuring discussions

• Commitment • provide support for current policy• inspire to choose alternative

policy

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Adaptive management

• Making flexible decisions, anticipating future developments

• Defining pathways instead of fixed future situations

• Taking current policy as a starting point and focusing on tipping points: incremental changes

• Monitoring current developments

Adaptive management

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Roles of scenarios

• Exploring future developments and possible tipping points

• Taking (cognitive) uncertainty into consideration

• Integrated approach, e.g. water management, agriculture, and nature development

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Cost-benefit analysis

• Integrated assessment of physical and other projects

• Providing an overview of societal costs and benefits

• Project alternatives are compared to a reference alternative

• All impacts are expressed in terms of money (or PM)

Cost-benefit analysis

The winning alternative was the most expensive one, butalso the most profitable one

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Roles of scenarios

• Exploring future developments and their impacts on a project’s costs and benefits

• Taking (cognitive) uncertainty into consideration

• Integrated approach: impacts of economic growth, demographic development, urbanisation, mobility, etc.

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Required characteristics

Adaptive management and cost-benefit analysis require scenarios that are: • moderately explorative• descriptive• highly quantitative• plausible

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Transition management

• Focusing on fundamental changes: transitions

• Building visions that challenge current policy

• Embodying (very) long-term ambitions: normative

• Focusing on alternative strategies: pathways

Adaptive management

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Roles of scenarios

• Exploring long-term policy challenges: agenda-setting

• Exploring various policy alternatives: innovate thinking

• Providing insights in the feasibility of the alternatives: robustness and flexibility

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Societal debate

• About an issue which is high on the societal and political agenda

• High cognitive and normative uncertainty (high conflict level), e.g. nuclear energy, genetically modified food, financial crisis

• Organised via public meetings, public media, the internet, social media, etc.

Societal discussion

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Roles of scenarios

• Exploring future developments and policy challenges they may generate

• Exploring policy alternatives and their intended and unintended impacts

• Structuring the discussion and limiting conflicts

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Required characteristics

Transition management and societal debates require scenarios that are:• highly explorative (incl. wild cards)• descriptive as well as normative• qualitative as well as quantitative• highly inspiring / plausible

Questions?

Reflections?

Suggestions?

Remarks?

Do you have any…