forest fires and climate change gci (ws2011)
DESCRIPTION
How recent forest fires has been influenced by the changing climate change.TRANSCRIPT
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Forest Fires and Climate Change
Yara Ibrahim
Aditya Parmar
Global Change Issues – WS 2011-12
25/01/2012
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Introduction
Carbon Dynamics
Recent Studies
Impact and Conclusion
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Global Scale
Source: Modis Rapid Response, Web fire Mappers
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Fire Activity
Fire Activity
Source: http://scottthong.wordpress.com
Every year more than 50 million ha of forest is burnt down, from which more than 10 million ha are boreal forest and 40 million tropical rain forest.
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Global Warming
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment ( 2007)
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Effects of GW
Source: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/gccalbany1.jpg
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Interactions
Source: Natural Resources Canada Website
Climate change will interact with Fuel Type, Ignition Source and Topography.
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Feedback in the Earth Systems
Source: Dr. Allan Spessa, Reading University
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Carbon Dynamics Carbon lost due to combustion (CO2)
Decompostion of Fire Killed vegetation
Dynamics of vegetation following the fire
Live vegetation
Dead vegetation
Organic soil horizons
Mineral soils
Source : (Pic 1 ) http://serc.carleton.edu/images/eyesinthesky2/week8/fire_storm_mirror_plateau.jpgSource: (Pic 2) http://www.nps.gov/fire/images/photos/timeline/37_nps_timelineimages_lff-1910a.jpg
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2
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Carbon Dynamics
Conceptual C dynamics of above ground tree (dash-dot line) and root (fine dotted line) after fire and clearcut logging, for trees (solid line) and roots (broken line)
Conceptual under story C dynamics after fire (dotted line) and clearcut logging (solid line)
Source: Meelis Seedre (2011)
Source: Meelis Seedre (2011)
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Carbon Dynamics
Conceptual dead wood C dynamics after fire (solid line) and clearcut logging (dotted line)
Source: Meelis Seedre (2011)
Source: Meelis Seedre (2011)
Conceptual soil C dynamics in organic layer (FF) after fire (solid line) and after clearcut logging (broken line) and in mineral soil (dotted line for both disturbances)
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Recent Studies Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies at eastern equatorial Pacific
Source: Kaplan, A. et al.(1998).
Drought Fires in SW US
Source: Hughes (2000); Cook, E.R. et al.(1999)
El N
ino La N
ina
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation)
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Recent Studies
Source: Gillett et. Al. (2004)
Area burned in Canada has increased since the 1960s, correlated with temp. increase.
Percentage increase (above baseline period 2000) in the total number of fires occurring in Ontario.
Source: Climate Change and future fire environment in Ontario: Fire Occurance and Fire management impacts ( 2005)
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Recent Studies
.
Source: A L Westerling et al. (2006)
An
nual
fre
quen
cy o
f la
rge
(>40
0 h
a) w
este
rn
U.S
. for
est
wil
dfir
es (
bar
s) a
nd
mea
n M
arch
th
rou
gh A
ugus
t te
mp
erat
ure
for
the
wes
tern
U
nit
ed S
tate
s
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Recent Studies
.
Too close for comfort.Wildfire is seen approaching Old Faithful Village, Yellowstone National Park, in 1988.Source: NPS PHOTO
Less moisture—more fires. Between 1970 and 2003, spring and summer moisture availability declined in many forests in the western United States (left). During the same time span, most wildfires exceeding 1000 ha in burned area occurred in these regions of reduced moisture availability (right)
Source: Steven W. Running ( 2006)
Cause of Effect framework
Source: Lavorel et al. (2005)
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Impacts Impact of the forest fires :• Degradation• Deforestation• Soil erosion• Appearance of insects• Decrease of biodiversity• Human health• Economy• Carbon’s (CO2,CO) and
other gas emission• Landscape recreational
value
Source:AP Photo/bigbendnow.com, Alberto Tomas Halpern
Source: AP Photo/LM Otero
Soil Water Regime and Floods
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Conclusion
Global Warming
Higher Temperature
More Wild Fires
More Black Areas and
CO2
‘’ In response to global change (interaction of climate change, socio- economic changes, and land-use change) and taking into account that global warming is a reality and will lead to an increasing occurrence and severity of wild land fires globally, and increasing impacts of society’’ .
(Source: 5th International Wild land Fire Conference‘’Statement’’ -2011)
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Thank you
Source: http://paranoidnews.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/182568_TlUxH7Lu6sbbjyfjmq098D2mc.jpg
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Reference
1. M.D. Flanningan, B.D. Amiro, K.A. Logan, B.J. Stocks and B.M. Wotton. Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21st Century ( 2005) 2. N. P. Gillett and A. J. Weaver . Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires (2004) 3. Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam. Warming and ealier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity (2006)4. Meelis Seedre ,Bharat M. Shrestha,Han Y. H. Chen,Steve Colombo ,Kalev Jo˜giste. Carbon dynamics of North American boreal forest after standreplacing wildfire and clearcut logging. (2011) 5. Steven W. Running .Is Global Warming Causing More, Larger Wildfires?(Science 313, 927 (2006))6. Andy Rowell and Dr. Peter F. Moore. Global Review of Forest Fires. 7. IPCC 4th Assessment report (2007)8. 5th International Wildland Fire Conference - ‘Wildfire 2011’Conference Statement9. National Centre for Atmosphere Science, Department of MeteorologyReading University10. Mike Wotton, Kim Logon and Rob McAlpine. Climate Change and future fire environment in Ontario: Fire Occurance and Fire management impacts ( 2005)