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  • OAT 7,5% 04-2005 OATi 3% 07-2009 OAT 5,25% 04-2008 OAT TEC 10 01-2009 OAT 4% 10-2009 OAT 5% 10-2016 OAT 8,5% 04-2023 OAT 5,5% 04-2029 OAT 4% 10-2009 OAT

    5,5% 04-2010 OATi 3,4% 07-2029 BTAN 4% 01-2002 BTAN 4,5% 07-2002 BTAN 3,5% 07-2004 BTAN 5% 07-2005 OAT 4% 04-2009 BTAN 5% 01-2006 BTAN 4,5% 07-2003

    BTAN 3,5% 07-2004 OAT 7,5% 04-2005 BTF 3/05/2001 BTF 21/06/2001 BTF 2/08/ 2001 BTF 29/03/2001 OATi 3% 07-2009 OAT 5,25% 04-2008 OAT TEC 10 01-2009

    OAT 6,5% 04-2011 OAT 8,5% 04-2023 OAT 5,5% 04-2029 BTAN 4% 01-2002 BTAN 4,5% 07-2002 BTAN 3,5% 07-2004 BTAN 5% 07-2005 OAT 4% 04-2009 BTAN 5%

    01-2006 BTAN 4,5% 07-2003 OAT 8,5% 11-2002 OAT 7,5% 04-2005 BTF 3/05/2001 BTF 21/06/2001 BTF 2/08/ 2001 BTF 29/03/2001 OATi 3% 07-2009 OAT

    5,25% 04-2008 OAT TEC 10 01-2009 OAT 4% 10-2009 OAT 5,5% 04-2010 OATi 3,4% 07-2029 OAT 6,5% 04-2011 OAT 8,5% 04-2023 OAT 5,5% 04-2029 BTAN 4%

    01-2002 BTAN 4,5% 07-2002 BTAN 3,5% 07-2004 BTAN 5% 07-2005 OAT 4% 04-2009 BTAN 4,5% OAT 4% 10-2009 OAT 5,5% 04-2010 OATi 3,4% 07-2029 OAT

    7,5% 04-2005 OATi 3% 07-2009 OAT 5,25% 04-2008 OAT TEC 10 01-2009 OAT 4% 10-2009 OAT 5% 10-2016 OAT 8,5% 04-2023 OAT 5,5% 04-2029 OAT 4% 10-

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    20 32

    French government long- and medium-term negotiable debt on February 29, 2004 nominal value of each line, EUR billion

    Source : Agency France Trésor

    29

    31

    33

    35

    37

    39

    41

    43

    45

    03/3 03/6 03/7 03/8 03/9 03/10 03/11 03/12 04/1

    Non-resident holdings of French government negotiable debt securities as a % of negotiable debt outstanding

    Source : balance of payments Note : A more accurate census of the securities held by custodians has enabled Banque de France to revise the ratios of French Government Negotiable Debt held by non-residents, and particular for shorter- term notes.

    The department of Banque de France in charge of the Balance of payments has improved its method of assessing the stocks of French sovereign debt held by non-residents. These improvements mainly deal with the statistics of medium and short term instrument holdings, i.e. BTANs (2 to 5 years) and BTFs (one year or less), based on a better census of securities held by custodians. As a result, data for November 2003 have been revised as follows:

    Balance of payment staff also said they had reckoned data back till 1995. These data are available on the web site www.aft.gouv.fr or in the Statistics section of Banque de France’s monthly Disgest at http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/bulletin/main.htm. Another department at Banque de France, the Directorate for monetary studies and statistics (DESM), originates the chart on page 3 (holdings per holder group). The ‘Survey of securities’, established from a different sample than that of Balance of Payments, accounts for holdings of all sorts of securities and takes place every quarter. In the third quarter of 2003, based on transfers of ownership, the DESM Survey estimates the ratio of OATs held by non-residents to 41.9%; once corrected for temporary sales, it amounts to 34.9% in November 2003, according to the Balance of Payments

    French government debt news

    http://www.aft.gouv.fr • Bloomberg TRESOR • Reuters

    n° 166 March 2004

    m o n t h l y b u l l e t i n -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    1/02 7/02 1/03 7/03 1/04

    Consumer prices index year on year % change

    Source : statistical instituts

    38,5

    58,9 60,8

    106,7

    69,0 60,8

    147,3

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    U.-K. France Germany Italy euro zone USA Japan

    General government debt in 2002 as a % of GDP

    Timetable for the release of French economic indicators

    international comparisons

    2 Household confidence survey: February survey

    2 New building starts in January

    5 Gross foreign exchange reserves in February

    8 Central government budget: statement at end of December

    8 Central government budget: statement at end of January

    9 National accounts - general government: first results 2003

    9 Sales of new dwelling units: Q4-2003

    11 Payroll employment: final results Q4-2003

    12 Industrial output in January

    12 Foreign trade in January

    12 Consumer prices: provisional index for February

    17 Balance of payments in January

    19 Wages: final statistics Q4-2003

    23 Consumer prices: final index for February

    23 Household consumption of manufactured goods in February

    30 New building starts in February

    30 Industrial trends: monthly survey for March

    30 Industrial producer prices: February index

    31 Job seekers in February

    31 Net foreign exchange reserves in February

    March 2004

    1 Household confidence survey: March survey

    6 Central government budget: statement at end of February

    7 Gross foreign exchange reserves in March

    9 Industrial output in February

    9 Cost-of-construction: index Q4-2003

    14 Consumer prices: provisional index for March

    14 Foreign trade in February

    19 Balance of payments in February

    22 Household consumption of manufactured goods in March

    23 Consumer prices: final index for March

    27 Quarterly national accounts: final results Q4-2003

    27 Annual national accounts: results 2003

    27 New building starts in March

    29 Industrial trends: April survey

    30 Industrial producer prices: March index

    30 Job seekers in March

    30 Net foreign exchange reserves in March

    April 2004

    Macro-economic forecast real growth rate as a %

    Recent economic indicators

    * manufactured goods source: Insee; ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry; Banque de France

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    2000 2001 2002 2003 -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Gross domestic product at 1995 prices variation in %

    Source : Insee, quarterly national accounts

    0.90

    0.95

    1.00

    1.05

    1.10

    1.15

    1.20

    1.25

    1.30

    3/1/03 6/1/03 9/1/03 12/1/03 3/1/04 110

    115

    120

    125

    130

    135

    140

    145

    Euro exchange rate daily quotes

    Source : European central bank

    Government budget monthly position EUR billion

    Source: ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry For more information: http://www.minefi.gouv.fr/minefi/chiffres/budget_etat/

    Public finance : general government deficit and debt as a % of GDP

    the French economy

    source: 2004 Budget bill / Economic, social and financial report

    2002 2003 2004

    French GDP 1.2 0.2 1.7 Euro zone GDP 0.9 0.5 1.5

    Household consumption 1.4 1.6 1.1 Business investment – 2.8 – 1.8 1.9 Exports 1.3 – 1.6 5.4 Imports 0.8 1.0 5.4

    Consumer prices 1.9 2.1 1.9 (year-on-year)

    Source : 2004 Budget bill / Economic, social and financial report

    Information on Agency France Trésor INTERNET

    http://www.aft.gouv.fr BLOOMBERG TRESOR

    REUTERS

    BRIDGE Pages Menu 20010-20078

    Contents

    French government debt news p. 1

    Primary market p. 2

    Secondary market

    Forum p. 3

    International comparisons

    The French economy p. 4

    Negotiable government debt outstanding p. 5 and 6

    Agency France Trésor monthly bulletin

    Available in French, English, German and Japanese

    Publication Manager: Bertrand de Mazières

    Editor: Agency France Trésor

    To subscribe, write to:

    Agence France Trésor 139, rue de Bercy Télédoc 287 75572 PARIS CEDEX 12 Fax : 33 1 40 04 15 93

    Source : Eurostat, OECD

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    Industrial output*, year-on-year 1.4% 12/2003 Household consumption*, year-on-year 2.0% 1/2004 Unemployment rate (ILO) 9.6% 1/2004 Consumer prices, year-on-year

    all items 2.0% 1/2004 all items excluding tobacco 1.4% 1/2004

    Trade balance, fob-fob, sa 1.4 EUR bn 12/2003 " " 0.3 EUR bn 11/2003

    Current account balance, sa 1.0 EUR bn 12/2003 " " 0.9 EUR bn 11/2003

    10-year interest rate (TEC10) 4.09% 2/27/2004 3-month interest rate (Euribor) 2.052% 2/27/2004 EUR / USD 1.2418 2/27/2004 EUR / JPY 135.63 2/27/2004

    Harmonized index of consumer prices (Eurostat):

    Index for February: March 27

    Index for March: April 16

    Japan U.-K. USA euro zone France

    year on year (right-hand scale)quarterly (left-hand scale) Euro / dollar (left-hand scale) Euro / yen (right-hand scale) OATi & OAT €iOATBTAN

    end-of-January level

    2002 2003 2002 2003 2004