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  • HIGHWAY 407 (SEATON LANDS)ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY

    April 2007

    Ontario Realty Corporation

    APPENDICES

    In Conjunction With:

    Joseph Bogdan Associates Inc.

    ENTRA Consultants

    Giffels Design-Build Inc.

    ECD Energy and Environment Canada Ltd.

    RJ Burnside & Associates Limited

    Macaulay Shiomi Howson Ltd.

  • APPENDICES

    This document contains five Appendices that were prepared as partof the Highway 407 (Seaton Lands) Economic Development Study.Key points from the appendices are cited within the Final Reportwhich is produced under separate cover. The five appendices are asfollows:

    Appendix A: Employment Land Market Study

    Appendix B: Transportation Strategy

    Appendix C: Urban Design and Built Form Guidelines

    Appendix D: Sustainability Guidelines

    Appendix E: Development Pro Formas

    HEMSON

  • HIGHWAY 407 (SEATON LANDS)ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDY

    APPENDIX A

    Employment Land Market Study

    Hemson Consulting Ltd.

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS

    I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    A. CENTRAL PICKERING DEVELOPMENT PLAN DEFINES THE OVERALL VISION FOR SEATON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1B. EXISTING CONDITIONS IN SEATON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1C. REPORT STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    II DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    A. GTA REMAINS AN INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5B. DURHAMS EMPLOYMENT LAND EMPLOYMENT IS FORECAST TO GROW BY ABOUT 67,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7C. EMPLOYMENT LAND AREAS HAVE EVOLVED TO ACCOMMODATE A WIDE RANGE OF FUNCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . 8D. ECONOMIC SECTORS DEMANDING EMPLOYMENT LAND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12E. LOCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS OF EMPLOYMENT LAND USERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15F. SEATON LIKELY TO DIFFER FROM MAJORITY OF MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

    III GTA EMPLOYMENT LAND MARKET ASSESSMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

    A. LARGE SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT LAND MARKET ACTIVITY IS IN THE GTA WEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23B. SEATON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ACHIEVING DURHAMS EMPLOYMENT GOALS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24C. SEATON WILL BECOME THE MAJOR NEW EMPLOYMENT AREA IN DURHAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24D. SEATONS MAIN COMPETITORS WILL BE THE 404 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN DURHAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25E. DURHAMS EMPLOYMENT LAND IS RELATIVELY LESS EXPENSIVE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30F. SEATONS CAMPUS OFFICE POTENTIAL WILL ASSIST IN A VERY COMPETITIVE MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

    IV SEATON MARKET ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

    A. SEATON SWOT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33B. SEATON WILL GENERATE ABOUT 16,700 IN EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36C. RATE OF EMPLOYMENT LAND ABSORPTION FOR SEATON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39D. EMPLOYMENT LAND PARCEL SIZE ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

    V MARKET PROSPECTS FOR SEATON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

    HEMSON

  • I BACKGROUND AND STUDY AREA CONTEXT

    Ontario Realty Corporation is undertaking an Economic Development Study for the designated Prestige employment lands in the Highway 407 corridor in the planned community of Seaton in Pickering. This appendix report contains the employment land market analysis component of the Study. The market analysis consists of an assessment of employment land demand and supply conditions for the Seaton market area, an outlook for the potential types of employment land uses that would be attracted to the Highway 407 lands and a projection of the anticipated rate of absorption and potential land prices for the Study Area lands. The results of the market analysis were used as input to the development of the recommended land use concept for the Study Area and for other components of the Study including the proposed phasing and marketing strategy.

    A. CENTRAL PICKERING DEVELOPMENT PLAN DEFINES THE OVERALL VISION FOR SEATON

    The concept of a large new urban community in Pickering has been proposed since the early 1970s when the Province undertook a major land assembly in North Pickering for this purpose. The Seaton community was to be developed in conjunction with a major new airport to the north. Since this

    time, there have been a number of different land use plans put forward by the Province and the City of Pickering.

    With the release of the Central Pickering Development Plan in May 2006, the Province established a final plan for the Seaton community. In the plan, lands along both sides of the Highway 407 corridor are designated for Prestige Employment uses. According to the Plan, Seaton is to accommodate 70,000 residents and total employment of 35,000 and is planned to be a showcase for a compact, sustainable urban community. Map 1 shows the location of Seaton and the designated Prestige Employment lands in the Highway 407 corridor in the context of the surrounding region.

    B. EXISTING CONDITIONS IN SEATON

    The designated Seaton employment lands are located on both sides of the 7 km Highway 407 corridor in Pickering from the hamlet of Green River at the western boundary, to Brock Road to the east (see Map 1). The majority of the employment lands are located north of Highway 407 and south of Highway 7 with a smaller proportion south of Highway 407.

    HEMSON

  • MARKHAM

    TORONTO

    Taunton Rd

    AJAXPICKERING

    BroughamBroughamHighway 7

    Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.Note: Map is conceptual.

    NTSNTS

    WhitevaleWhitevale

    LAKE ONTARIO

    Steeles Ave

    Kingston Rd

    Brock R

    d

    N

    407

    401

    401

    Lakeridge Rd

    Markham

    Rd

    Green RiverGreen River

    MAP 1: SEATON LANDS CONTEXT

    2

    Predominantly Residential Area

    Industrial and Commercial Area

    Federal Airport Lands

    Seaton Lands Predominantly Residential AreaSeaton Employment LandsHamlet

    HEMSON

  • 3

    In addition, there is one large employment block in the western part of the Study Area located north of Highway 7. Taking account of natural heritage features, planned transportation corridors, existing road rights-of-way and cultural heritage features, the estimated gross developable area amounts to approximately 331 ha (818 acres). The following sections summarize the major existing conditions in the Seaton employment area as they relate to the market for employment lands.

    1. Seaton Is a Planned Greenfield Community Currently Isolated from Major Urban Areas

    The Seaton employment lands are part of the larger Provincially planned Seaton community in Central Pickering. Seaton is a new community that will be just to the north of the existing Pickering urban area. The Seaton lands are currently occupied by mainly agricultural and rural residential uses. Owing to their location at the north end of Seaton, the Study Area lands are currently isolated from any existing major urban areas. Highway 404 is about a 10-minute drive along Highway 407 to the west of Seaton, while Highway 401 is about a 10-minute drive south along Brock Road.

    2. Natural Heritage System Is Integrated into the Seaton Employment Areas

    The Central Pickering Development Plan designates an extensive natural heritage system (NHS) integrated with both the residential and employment areas in Seaton. The topography of the Study Area is generally flat, sloping gently from north to

    south and punctuated by more prominent rolling terrain near the valleys. The NHS areas create distinct employment precincts within the Study Area. North-south valleylands are prominent in a number of locations across the Study area helping to define the character of different parts of the Seaton employment lands.

    3. Potential Site for Pickering Airport Is Located Immediately to the North of the Study Area

    The Pickering Airport site is located immediately to the north of the Seaton employment lands. The Federal Government is currently conducting a due diligence review of the need for and potential timing of the Pickering Airport. The Airport would act as a regional airport at first, replacing Buttonville and Oshawa airports and would potentially evolve to act as a reliever facility for Pearson which is anticipated to reach its plan