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MANAJEMEN RISIKO
DALAM INDUSTRI ASURANSI
Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD
Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
LinkedIn / Facebook: Prof. RoySembel
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PROF. ROY SEMBEL, IR, MBA, PHDEDUCATION
1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude
1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia; MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours
1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance;
Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and
Heterogeneous Information”
1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta.
2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand
1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta.
1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of
Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate
(S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects:
Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative
Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management.
WORK EXPERIENCE
1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB.
1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam.
1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam
1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh.
1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian
Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI
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1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta
2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara, Co-
founder Indonesia Learning Institute (InLIne), Indonesia School of Life (InSchoOL)
2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk
2005- Professor in Financial Economics;
Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia
2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya,
2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Capital Price Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia)
2007- Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI),
Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia
2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN)
2008 Board of Advisor UMN
2008-2010 Chairman CAPITAL PRICE
2009-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH
2010-2012 Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange
2012-2015 Senior advisor, Vriens & Partners
2012- IPMI International Business School, Professor, Head of Research, Dean
2013- Komisaris Independen PT HIT, Komisaris Utama PT MCS International
2014- Ketua Komite Indeks Investor 33; Member of Advisory Council, PLN CorpU
2015- Komisaris Independen, PT MNC Life
MISCELLANEOUSSpeaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA,
Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen &
Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media Akuntansi, DIA, Bahana, International Research Journal
of Finance and Economics, Journal of Business Management, Jurnal Ekonomi UKI, JAKI, JBR, Scripta Economica
UPH, Jurnal, Sinergi MMUII, published books, Internet.
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KOMUNIKASI:
E-mail: [email protected]
LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel
E-Newsletter:
TALKING POINTS
CONTEXT 0F RISK MANAGEMENT
CONCEPT
CONCLUDING REMARKS
HUKUM MURPHY
If anything can go wrong, it will go wrong
if you try to please everyone,
some one will surely be disappointed
Leave to itself, thing will go from bad to
worse
Murphy is an optimistic person
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• 1+1=2
• Two separate revolutions
• Wireless datacom enabling technologies
• Change in human behavior
• 1+1>2
• Wireless and datacom enhance each other
• Standards drive massive application and service development
• Revolution in human behavior and society
•
• Datacom is everything. Everything is wireless
• All “gadgets” are addressable in one uniform network
• Change beyond imagination
• WIRELESS
+
INTERNET
Fundamental change in the
way we live & behaveMATRIX
-00 00-09 10-
WIRELESS
SERVICE
REVOLUTION
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The rise of
the new
economy
Transparency &
Competition
THREE KEYS OF THE NEW ECONOMY
• More choices
• 24-hour services
• Just a ‘click’ away
•Interaction costs
•Transformation costs
• Faster natural selection
• ‘Sticks and carrots’ to
become more eficient &
inovative
• More and faster
interaction &
transactions
• Globalization dan
localization
•Unbundling &
reassembling
business
organization,
government,
financial
instruments
HIGHER
RETURN & RISK
1010
危机
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GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS• GOOD NEWS:
+ GDPGROWTH: Chindonesia
+ GDP / CAPITA ~ US$ 3600
+ G 20, Rank 16th or 9th
+ PEACEFUL DEMOCRACY
+ NATIONAL HERRITAGE
+ MOBILE PHONE > 250MN
+ ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
+ BB+ BBB (INV GRADE)
+ CURRENCY RESERVES>$ 100B
+ MIDDLE CLASS $10-20/DAY INCR 5 X IN 10 YEARS
+ DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
+ DIRECT INVESTMENT > $30 B
+ CAR SALES > 1 MN UNITS
• BAD NEWS:
• - DECREASING EXPORT < $200 B
- VOLATILE IDR & IHSG
- HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
- CENTRALIZED GROWTH
- HDI RANK
• - CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX
- DEFORRESTRATION
- EASENESS OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX
- DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
- INFRASTRUCTURE
- MARKET DISTORTION
- FUNDING COST
- AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY (ELECTRICITY, OIL, etc)
- LOW PERFORNANCE-BASED CULTURE
- LOW DOMESTIC INVESTOR BASE
Prof. Roy Sembel,
Ph.D
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SWOT ANALYSIS for the EconomySTRENGTHS:
Biodiversity: Land, Sea/River
Natural resources, mining, oil & gas
12 month sun
Marine resources
Natural beauty, arts, cultural diversity
Population 255 million
Geographical location
Demographic Bonus
WEAKNESSES:
Cryonism (KKN)
Law enforcement
Low Human Development Index
Lack of hard infrastructure
Market distortion
Weak public relations
Politics in transition
OPPORTUNITIES:
Emerging Asia
Recovery of US Economy
ICT growth
Intra ASEAN cooperation
WTO / AFTA
Low energy price
THREATS:
Global financial / economic crisis
Terrorism (Physical / Economy)
Epidemic/Pandemic virus/bacteria
Volatility of Commodity prices
Natural disasters
PROSPECT OF ECONOMY• Still single digit interest rate
• Global uncertainty
• GDP per capita ~ $ 3600
• Volatile IDR
• GDP growth still 4%-5 %
• Inflation ~ 5%-6%
• Mobile phone > 250 juta
• Infrastructure development
• Domestic consumption / Rising middle class
• Demographic bonus / dividend
•Domestic Stocks Long-term
investment, short-term trading
•EBA, REITs, Property
•Risk management / hedging
•Gold, Currency Trading
•Business that leverages social
media
•Travel, Tourism, Transportation
•Infrastructure, alternative
energy, modern retail outlet,
international-quality education,
hospitals/healthcare, etc.
•Insurance Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D
TALKING POINTS
CONTEXT 0F RISK MANAGEMENT
CONCEPT
CONCLUDING REMARKS
RISIKO
RISIKO ??
RISKY Wealth
R I S K Y Wealth
IT IS CRUCIAL TO MANAGE
THE RISK-RETURN PROFILE
Risk and Risk Management?
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Definition of Risk
– Risk is uncertainty
– Risk includes upside volatility
– Risk is deviation from expected
Risk Management
– Balancing risk and reward
– Balancing art and science
– Balancing process and people
– Risk Management is ultimately about people
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Risk monitoring is a low level function of the internal auditors
Risk: negative factor to be controlled
Risk managed separately in organizational silos
Responsibility for risk mgt is delegated to lower levels
Risk measurement is subjective
Unstructured and divergent risk management functions
Risk monitoring is the CEO’s Job (with Board oversight)
Risk as an opportunity
Risk managed in an integrated, enterprise-wide fashion
Risk mgt is responsibility of senior/line management
Quantification of risk
Risk management is built into all corporate management systems
from BACK ROOM to BOARD ROOM
Evolution of Management’s View of Risk
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ERM menurut COSO“… a process, effected by an entity's board of directors, management and other personnel, applied in strategy setting and across the enterprise, designed to identify potential events that may affect the entity, and manage risks to be within its risk appetite, to provide reasonable assurance regarding the achievement of entity objectives.”
Source: COSO Enterprise Risk Management – Integrated Framework. 2004. COSO.
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ERM Definitions
A process, ongoing and flowing through an entity
Effected by people at every level of an organization
Applied in strategy-setting
Applied across the enterprise, at every level and
unit, and includes taking an entity-level portfolio
view of risk
Designed to identify potential events affecting the
entity and manage risk with in its risk appetite
Able to provide reasonable assurance to an entity's
management and board. Source: COSO Enterprise Risk Management – Integrated Framework. 2004. COSO.
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Traditional Risk Management vs ERM
SCOPE • Narrow, Pure Risk
•Tangible Asset
• Enterprise Wide, Pure &
Speculative Risk
• Tangible & Intangible
STRATEGY• Primarily Insurance
Solutions
• Comprehensive Solutions
• Protection and Value
Creation
FOCUS• The ‘down-side
risk’, lack of total
risk portfolio
• Total risk portfolio
which affects bottom-
line, both ‘down-side’
and ‘up-side’ risk
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Risk management across sectors
Insurance Companies Commercial Banks Security Firms
Primary Risks Technical risk (liability risk) &
Investment risk (asset risk)
Credit risks & funding
liquidity risk
Market risk & liquidity risk
Typical Time
Horizon
Long-term
(often multiple years)
Medium-term
(usually one year)
Short-term
(often 1 to 10 days)
Risk
Measurement
Quantitative (actuarial) techniques to
calculate size of necessary technical
provisions
Risk limiting and sharing via
deductibles, reinsurance & ART
Asset and Liability management
Quantitative models calculate
economic capital necessary to
absorb unexpected credit loss
at target confidence level
Asset and Liability
management
Value-at-risk and stress
testing methodologies for
market & liquidity risk
Credit risk minimized through
collateral and master netting
agreements
Provisions /
reserves vs.
Capital
Technical provisions as estimate of
foreseeable claims while capital
covers unexpected losses
Provisions much higher than
Capital
Loan loss reserves to cover
expected losses and capital to
cover unanticipated losses
Capital usually higher than
Reserves
Holding capital rather than
reserves because valuation
on a mark-to-market basis
Capital much higher than
Reserves
Risk Identification
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Supervision across sectors
Insurance Companies Commercial Banks Security Firms
Capital
regulation /
solvency
regime
frameworks
(1) Risk-Based-Capital (USA,
Canada, Japan and others)
(2) Index based solvency regime
(EU and others)
Basel Accord (1) Net Capital approach (USA,
Canada, Japan, and others)
(2) EU Capital Adequacy Directive,
based on Basel Accord
Amendment for market risks
Overall concern Soundness of individual insurers,
not just system as a whole
Stability of system as a whole rather than preserving individual
banks
Accounting
conventions
Variety of different approaches Historical cost approach Marked-to-market
B/S Focus Liability side of balance sheet Asset side of balance sheet
Ratio actual vs.
required capital
Actual capital often several times
minimum required level
Usually hold no more than 150% of their capital requirement
Capital
frameworks
Different definitions of eligible capital, charges applied to individual risks, aggregation methodologies of
these charges, and scope of application of framework (to individual firms, groups of firms or
consolidated groups)
¢ Supervision differs significantly by sector and regions
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WISDOM for Risk Management
WATAK: SWOT
IMPIAN/INGIN: SMARTER Goal
SIASAT: Grand strategy
DIDIK: Capacity Building
OTAK/OTOT: Work smart, Work hard
METER: Measurement
MONITOR Monitor implementation
MANAJEMEN Resources Allocation
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CAPACITY BUILDING
FRAMEWORK
Hardware
Leadership
BrainwareMarketware
Software
CULTURE
Common
Goal
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Risk Management Awareness & Culture
Risk Philosophy
Basic attitude towards risk, should be aligned with Vision & Mission and Business Strategy.
Risk Tolerance/AppetiteThe level of risk the company is willing to accept in order to achieve its Business Strategy. The desired Risk Profile of the Enterprise
Risk Management Organization & Functions
Risk Governance
Framework Risk Language
Definition of Risks
Risk Management Policies
Laying down the foundation…
Risk Governance Framework
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Identify
AssessManage
Monitor
Identify & Map
Credit
Market/
Financial
Liquidity
Operational
Strategic
Where?
The cause?
Risk owner?
Control?
Measure & Evaluate
How much?
Individual vs organization-wide
What if scenarios
Normal vs. crisis
Range of measurement methods & tools
Risk Treatment
Accept, Mitigate, Avoid, Exploit, Transfer
Contingency Plans
Provisions & reserves
Improvement of business strategies, control and processes
Monitor & Report
Operational vs Oversight
Regulatory
Exposure vs Actual
Early warnings
Risk
Governance
Framework
Risk
Manageme
nt
Infrastruct
ure
Risk
Management
Process
Risk
Manag
ement
Risk Management Process
TALKING POINTS
CONTEXT 0F RISK MANAGEMENT
CONCEPT
CONCLUDING REMARKS
PERSEPSI ASURANSI ?
DIKEJAR AGEN PENJUAL
SULIT MENGAJUKAN KLAIM
ASURANSI
=
BEAST
ASURANSI JIWA:
MELANGGAR ‘KODRAT’
NASIB TAK BISA DIUBAH
PERNAH “TERTIPU”
ISU KEBANGKRUTAN
MAHAL
SOSIALISASI & SERTIFIKASI
Identify target audiences &
Customized message to each audience
Utilize ICT / SocMed
Cooperation with:
Media
Academics
Opinion builder
Association
Life Style Community
Sertifikasi Agen:
Kompetensi, Integritas, Service Excellent
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LAKUKAN MONITORING DAN EVALUASI HASIL
I
M
P
R
O
V
E
M
E
N
T
S•Success Stories
•Weaknesses
•Barriers for improvements
•Opportunities for improvements
EX
TE
RN
AL
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NT
Procedures
Results
Facts Perceptions
C
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M
M
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N
I
C
A
T
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N
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