over 30 million gamers can’t be wrong gdc 2007 sponsored session presented by nick williams and...
TRANSCRIPT
Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong
GDC 2007 Sponsored SessionPresented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci
March 7, 2007
Agenda1. Introduction to IGN GamerMetrics
• What is it?• What data do we collect?• Does IGN data map to the actual market?
2. The Validity of the data• Industry Partners
3. The Power of the data• Macro industry trending and forecasting
4. The Relevance of the data• Case Studies
5. 2007 Outlook
6. Q and A
“Relying on a crowd rather than an individual improves your chances of finding information that you didn’t know
was out there. Just as important, it minimizes the impact of the mistakes that individuals make.”
James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds
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What is IGN GamerMetrics?
IGN GamerMetrics is a leading business intelligence tool designed to help videogame industry professionals analyze the gaming consumer, and the gaming market as a whole.
IGN.com* – 28.1 million unique users per month*
GameSpy.com* – 8.5 million unique users per month*
FilePlanet.com* – 4.5 million unique users per month*
TeamXbox.com* – 2.5 million unique users per month*
Audience behavior maps closely to the overall market
Multiplayer gamers, Online gamers
PC gamers Xbox 360 and Xbox gamers
Vault and Planet Sites* - 2.4 and 2.3 million users per month*
Sites dedicated to fans of specific titles and franchises
* Internal Log Files, December 2006
What Kind of Data do we Provide?
Data Type Metrics
Awareness
Page Views,
Avg. Daily Gamers
Engagement
Message Board Posts, Message Board Page Views
Purchase Intent
Unique Interest, Wishlists, Email Alerts, Collection
Trial
Initiated Downloads
IGN GamerMetrics effectively captures each phase of the gamer buying cycle.
Sources
Th
e G
amer
Bu
yin
g C
ycle
IGN Data Maps Accurately to the Market
• Diverse group of gamers that reflect actual console ownership percentages within the U.S.
• Visitors to IGN are the gamers setting the tone for the market
• Reinforces the idea of “Wisdom of Crowds”
69%
24%
7%
72%
17%
11%
IGN Ownershipvs.
U.S Marketshare
Sources: IGN GamerMetrics and The NPD Group
Wii
PlayStation 3
Xbox 360
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Key Industry Partners Rely on the Data
RetailersPublishersDevelopers, Agencies, and MorePress MentionsOver the last year, IGN GamerMetrics data has also been published in hundreds of web publications and blogs, including:
Partnerships with Deutsche Bank and other top financial institutions lend credibility to the data in GamerMetrics.
Financial Partnerships
"I'm always looking for leading indicators of sales trends and consumer sentiment. With GamerMetrics data, I can quickly assess the relative position of titles, platforms, and publishers. GamerMetrics…helps cut through the ceaseless newsflow and identify early what's catching gamers' attention."
- Edward Urban, Interactive Entertainment Analyst, Bear Stearns
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Nintendo Wii
1401 Up 9 0.6%
Sony PlayStation 3
1256 Up 30 2.4%
Microsoft Xbox360
2359 Up 21 0.9%
IGN Platform Indices
Is the Nintendo Wii as hot as they say?
Zelda: The Legend of Wii
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Wii Wii w/o Zelda
• Tied to successful franchise
• Innovation
Industry Insights (Nintendo)
Is the PlayStation 3 a failure?
• Latent install base
• Strength behind upcoming releases
Industry Insights (Sony)
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Did a one-year head start serve well for the Xbox 360?
• Exceptionally strong library
• Strength behind upcoming releases500
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ug
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Wii PS3 X360
Industry Insights (Microsoft)
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The Wii Pre-Launch Report
Wii Launch Title GamerMetrics Mindshare2
NPD Unit Share1
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
25.47% 31.05%
Red Steel 11.69% 7.36%
Rayman Raving Rabbids 6.69% 6.13%
Madden NFL 07 5.47% 6.02%
Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz 3.95% 5.78%
Call of Duty 3 3.33% 5.09%
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 5.71% 4.96%
Excite Truck 3.41% 4.28%
Trauma Center: Second Opinion 4.58% 3.67%
Tony Hawk’s Downhill Jam 3.05% 2.82%
85% of IGN Wii owners say they own Twilight Princess. This is identical to the percentage of all U.S. Wii owners who purchased the game in the first two months.
Directional indicators
Blockbuster titles readily identifiable Spot
opportunities
1 GamerMetrics Mindshare based on 90 days of Awareness and Purchase Intent data leading up to November 9, 2006
2 NPD Unit Share is based on share of Wii unit sales during the first two months
The Halo Effect
60 Days Prior to Launch: Screenshots released on IGN
45 Days Prior to Launch: Microsoft announces Halo 3 beta promotion with Crackdown
7 Days Prior to Launch: IGN editorial publishes a review, awarding Crackdown an 8.0
Keeping an eye on purchase intent is critical leading up to the launch of any title
Crackdown (Xbox 360)
Great Title…But Cluttered Launch Space
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Actual NPD Sales (Nov-06 - Jan-07)
Ga
me
rMe
tric
s M
ind
sha
re
Gears of War
Call of Duty 3
Rainbow Six: Vegas F.E.A.R.
Use GamerMetrics to Manage Expectations
GamerMetrics Data NPD Data
IGN GamerMetrics Mindshare data predicted that F.E.A.R. would get lost in the crowd
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Xbox 360 and Wii Titles Dominate 2007 Landscape
Rank Game Title Plat. Developer
Mind-
share
Release
Date
1 Halo 3 X360 Bungie Software 6.09% Fall 2007
2 God of War II PS2 SCE Studios 2.76% 13-Mar-07
3 Super Smash Bros. Brawl Wii Nintendo 2.39% TBA 2007
4 Mass Effect X360 BioWare 2.37% TBA 2007
5 Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 X360 Red Storm Ent 2.23% 6-Mar-07
6 Assassin's Creed X360 Ubisoft Montreal 2.04% TBA 2007
7 Super Mario Galaxy Wii Nintendo EAD Tokyo 1.77% TBA 2007
8 Guitar Hero II X360 Red Octane 1.68% 3-Apr-07
9 BioShock X360 Irrational Games 1.55% Spring 2007
10 Grand Theft Auto IV X360 Rockstar North 1.36% 17-Oct-07
What’s new for GamerMetrics 2007
Forecasting Model
Platform Indexing Nintendo Wii
1401 Up 9 0.6%
Sony PlayStation 3
1256 Up 30 2.4%
Microsoft Xbox360
2359 Up 21 0.9%
IGN Platform Indices
Enhanced Design
New Features
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Saint
's Row
Dead R
ising
Prey
Chromeh
oundsGun
Shadowru
n
Crackdown
Too H
uman
BioShock
Mass E
ffect
IGN
Uni
que
Inte
rest
(in
thou
sand
s)
0
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D U
nit Sales - first three m
onths (in thousands)
Unique Interest
NP D Unit Sales
IGN.com Unique Interest vs. NPD Unit Sales For Recent New Ips on the Xbox 360
Released Titles Upcoming Titles
??
??
?
Unit Sales data provided by: The NP D GroupFor Released Titles, Unique Interest shown is cumulative amount during year prior to launchFor Upcoming Titles, Unique Interest shown is cumulative amount during the last 12 month
Monthly Report Highlights Micro to Macro Trends
• 25 issues have been published dating back to the beginning of 2005
• Report is distributed to thousands of industry professionals each month
• Recent topics include:– DS vs. PSP: Who Will Win in 2007?– Which Titles will Define the First Half of 2007?– Countdown to the Wii & PS3 launches– Holiday Retail Buyer’s Guide
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Thank You!