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Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 1: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong

GDC 2007 Sponsored SessionPresented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci

March 7, 2007

Page 2: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Agenda1. Introduction to IGN GamerMetrics

• What is it?• What data do we collect?• Does IGN data map to the actual market?

2. The Validity of the data• Industry Partners

3. The Power of the data• Macro industry trending and forecasting

4. The Relevance of the data• Case Studies

5. 2007 Outlook

6. Q and A

Page 3: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

“Relying on a crowd rather than an individual improves your chances of finding information that you didn’t know

was out there. Just as important, it minimizes the impact of the mistakes that individuals make.”

James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds

Page 4: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 5: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

What is IGN GamerMetrics?

IGN GamerMetrics is a leading business intelligence tool designed to help videogame industry professionals analyze the gaming consumer, and the gaming market as a whole.

IGN.com* – 28.1 million unique users per month*

GameSpy.com* – 8.5 million unique users per month*

FilePlanet.com* – 4.5 million unique users per month*

TeamXbox.com* – 2.5 million unique users per month*

Audience behavior maps closely to the overall market

Multiplayer gamers, Online gamers

PC gamers Xbox 360 and Xbox gamers

Vault and Planet Sites* - 2.4 and 2.3 million users per month*

Sites dedicated to fans of specific titles and franchises

* Internal Log Files, December 2006

Page 6: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

What Kind of Data do we Provide?

Data Type Metrics

Awareness

Page Views,

Avg. Daily Gamers

Engagement

Message Board Posts, Message Board Page Views

Purchase Intent

Unique Interest, Wishlists, Email Alerts, Collection

Trial

Initiated Downloads

IGN GamerMetrics effectively captures each phase of the gamer buying cycle.

Sources

Th

e G

amer

Bu

yin

g C

ycle

Page 7: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

IGN Data Maps Accurately to the Market

• Diverse group of gamers that reflect actual console ownership percentages within the U.S.

• Visitors to IGN are the gamers setting the tone for the market

• Reinforces the idea of “Wisdom of Crowds”

69%

24%

7%

72%

17%

11%

IGN Ownershipvs.

U.S Marketshare

Sources: IGN GamerMetrics and The NPD Group

Wii

PlayStation 3

Xbox 360

Page 8: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 9: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Key Industry Partners Rely on the Data

RetailersPublishersDevelopers, Agencies, and MorePress MentionsOver the last year, IGN GamerMetrics data has also been published in hundreds of web publications and blogs, including:

Partnerships with Deutsche Bank and other top financial institutions lend credibility to the data in GamerMetrics.

Financial Partnerships

"I'm always looking for leading indicators of sales trends and consumer sentiment. With GamerMetrics data, I can quickly assess the relative position of titles, platforms, and publishers. GamerMetrics…helps cut through the ceaseless newsflow and identify early what's catching gamers' attention."

- Edward Urban, Interactive Entertainment Analyst, Bear Stearns

Page 10: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 11: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Nintendo Wii

1401 Up 9 0.6%

Sony PlayStation 3

1256 Up 30 2.4%

Microsoft Xbox360

2359 Up 21 0.9%

IGN Platform Indices

Is the Nintendo Wii as hot as they say?

Zelda: The Legend of Wii

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• Tied to successful franchise

• Innovation

Industry Insights (Nintendo)

Page 12: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Is the PlayStation 3 a failure?

• Latent install base

• Strength behind upcoming releases

Industry Insights (Sony)

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Page 13: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Did a one-year head start serve well for the Xbox 360?

• Exceptionally strong library

• Strength behind upcoming releases500

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Industry Insights (Microsoft)

Page 14: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 15: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

The Wii Pre-Launch Report

Wii Launch Title GamerMetrics Mindshare2

NPD Unit Share1

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess

25.47% 31.05%

Red Steel 11.69% 7.36%

Rayman Raving Rabbids 6.69% 6.13%

Madden NFL 07 5.47% 6.02%

Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz 3.95% 5.78%

Call of Duty 3 3.33% 5.09%

Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 5.71% 4.96%

Excite Truck 3.41% 4.28%

Trauma Center: Second Opinion 4.58% 3.67%

Tony Hawk’s Downhill Jam 3.05% 2.82%

85% of IGN Wii owners say they own Twilight Princess. This is identical to the percentage of all U.S. Wii owners who purchased the game in the first two months.

Directional indicators

Blockbuster titles readily identifiable Spot

opportunities

1 GamerMetrics Mindshare based on 90 days of Awareness and Purchase Intent data leading up to November 9, 2006

2 NPD Unit Share is based on share of Wii unit sales during the first two months

Page 16: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

The Halo Effect

60 Days Prior to Launch: Screenshots released on IGN

45 Days Prior to Launch: Microsoft announces Halo 3 beta promotion with Crackdown

7 Days Prior to Launch: IGN editorial publishes a review, awarding Crackdown an 8.0

Keeping an eye on purchase intent is critical leading up to the launch of any title

Crackdown (Xbox 360)

Page 17: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Great Title…But Cluttered Launch Space

Page 18: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Actual NPD Sales (Nov-06 - Jan-07)

Ga

me

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tric

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ind

sha

re

Gears of War

Call of Duty 3

Rainbow Six: Vegas F.E.A.R.

Use GamerMetrics to Manage Expectations

GamerMetrics Data NPD Data

IGN GamerMetrics Mindshare data predicted that F.E.A.R. would get lost in the crowd

Page 19: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 20: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Xbox 360 and Wii Titles Dominate 2007 Landscape

Rank Game Title Plat. Developer

Mind-

share

Release

Date

1 Halo 3 X360 Bungie Software 6.09% Fall 2007

2 God of War II PS2 SCE Studios 2.76% 13-Mar-07

3 Super Smash Bros. Brawl Wii Nintendo 2.39% TBA 2007

4 Mass Effect X360 BioWare 2.37% TBA 2007

5 Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 X360 Red Storm Ent 2.23% 6-Mar-07

6 Assassin's Creed X360 Ubisoft Montreal 2.04% TBA 2007

7 Super Mario Galaxy Wii Nintendo EAD Tokyo 1.77% TBA 2007

8 Guitar Hero II X360 Red Octane 1.68% 3-Apr-07

9 BioShock X360 Irrational Games 1.55% Spring 2007

10 Grand Theft Auto IV X360 Rockstar North 1.36% 17-Oct-07

Page 21: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

What’s new for GamerMetrics 2007

Forecasting Model

Platform Indexing Nintendo Wii

1401 Up 9 0.6%

Sony PlayStation 3

1256 Up 30 2.4%

Microsoft Xbox360

2359 Up 21 0.9%

IGN Platform Indices

Enhanced Design

New Features

Page 22: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Unique Interest

NP D Unit Sales

IGN.com Unique Interest vs. NPD Unit Sales For Recent New Ips on the Xbox 360

Released Titles Upcoming Titles

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Unit Sales data provided by: The NP D GroupFor Released Titles, Unique Interest shown is cumulative amount during year prior to launchFor Upcoming Titles, Unique Interest shown is cumulative amount during the last 12 month

Monthly Report Highlights Micro to Macro Trends

• 25 issues have been published dating back to the beginning of 2005

• Report is distributed to thousands of industry professionals each month

• Recent topics include:– DS vs. PSP: Who Will Win in 2007?– Which Titles will Define the First Half of 2007?– Countdown to the Wii & PS3 launches– Holiday Retail Buyer’s Guide

Page 23: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

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Page 24: Over 30 Million Gamers Can’t Be Wrong GDC 2007 Sponsored Session Presented by Nick Williams and Scott Mucci March 7, 2007

Thank You!