page 1 trade demand forecasts q4 2006 prepared by: group research & development (grd) january...

Trade Demand Forecasts

Q4 2006

Prepared by: Group Research & Development (GRD)

January 2006

Confidential

0.0 : Global Trade Index

1.0 : Transpacific Trade

2.0 : Asia Europe Trade

3.0 : Transatlantic Trade

4.0 : Latin America-North America Trade

5.0 : Intra Asia Trade

Table of Contents

0.0 :Global Trade Index

Global Trade Index

Global trade growth is estimated to grow by 10.4% in 2006, and then moderate slightly going into 2007, in line with the expected moderation in world economic growth from an estimated 3.9% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2007

All the major trade lanes are likely show growth moderation following a strong year in 2006.

China’s trade with the rest of the world are expected to remain a key contributor to global trade growth in 2007, driven by demand from developed countries, especially EU and Japan, as well as it’s demand for semi-processed goods and raw materials, particularly from Asia.

Trade Route Weight (2005) 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008F

Far East-Mideast 2.5% 32.8% 31.1% 11.9% 10.5% 9.2% 9.0%Mideast-Far East 1.1% 9.2% 27.9% 19.2% 17.3% 15.2% 13.0%Intra Far East and Australia 18.0% 11.5% 13.2% 9.9% 9.3% 9.1% 9.1%Far East-Ind Subcon 1.1% 16.4% 13.8% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4% 9.4%Ind Subcon-Far East 0.6% 4.4% 13.2% 9.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.0%Asia Europe 12.8% 21.4% 16.5% 12.4% 14.8% 12.0% 9.5%TPEB 14.7% 8.7% 14.7% 13.4% 11.4% 9.0% 7.6%Europe Asia 4.0% 5.9% 14.1% 5.1% 6.4% 6.7% 5.0%TAWB 3.1% -0.1% 4.4% 2.7% 3.2% 2.5% 2.3%TPWB 5.0% 12.2% 5.8% 9.1% 4.5% 5.6% 4.8%TAEB 1.8% 8.4% 5.4% 4.1% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8%LTSB 1.7% 2.1% 11.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.5% 2.0%LTNB 2.8% 16.5% 12.0% -0.2% 2.0% 1.8% 2.9%Global Trade Index 12.8% 13.6% 10.3% 10.6% 9.9% 8.8%Drewry Global Trade Growth (Dec 2006) 14.7% 14.8% 10.5% 11.0% 9.6% naClarkson Global Trade Growth (Dec 2006) 11.5% 13.4% 10.0% 10.6% 10.0% na

1.0 : TRANSPACIFIC TRADE ROUTE

TPEB

TPEB trade decelerated to 9.1% in 3Q 06 from 19.2% though growth was still healthy.The deceleration in growth was in line with the slowdown in US economic growth to 3.0% in 3Q, compared to

3.5% in 2Q.Going forward, continued weakness in the housing market is expected to impact negatively on consumer and

capital spending, though declining gasoline prices may help. China remained the main exporter, although its contribution to growth fell by 6.2% pts alone in 3Q.

NOL NOL Trade Horizon Drewry Transpacific Eastbound (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06) (Dec 06)

2003 8.7% 8.7% 8.6% 9.9%2004 14.7% 14.7% 15.5% 15.6%

Q1 10.0% 10.0% 12.5% 13.9%Q2 16.6% 16.6% 16.7% 17.7%Q3 16.1% 16.1% 16.3% 15.7%Q4 15.8% 15.8% 16.2% 15.1%

2005 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.1%Q1 10.9% 10.9% 11.7% 9.5%Q2 8.5% 8.5% 8.8% 7.1%Q3 15.5% 15.5% 15.7% 18.2%Q4 18.3% 18.3% 17.0% 16.9%

2006f 11.2% 11.4% 10.1% 10.7%Q1 12.3% 12.4% 11.6% 10.8%Q2 17.9% 19.2% 17.1% 18.4%Q3 8.2% 9.1% 6.9% 7.0%Q4 7.2% 5.9% 5.7% 7.8%

2007f 8.7% 9.0% 7.5% 9.9%Q1 9.5% 9.5% 8.6% 11.0%Q2 8.5% 9.0% 3.6% 11.2%Q3 9.1% 9.3% 9.0% 8.8%Q4 8.0% 8.4% 8.9% 8.9%

2008f 7.6% 7.6% 6.9% 10.2%Source: JoC, Piers/Trade Horizon, Drewry, forecasts in shades

TPWB

TPWB trade maintained growth at about 2.8% in 3Q 06, the momentum of growth is likely to continue into 2007, supported by the continued needs to import raw materials, machinery and agricultural products to meet industrial needs, as the world’s production center remains in Asia. The major importers that contributed to growth in 3Q are Hong Kong and Taiwan. China is also a major importer though its contribution fell quite sharply in 3Q.

Going forward, Asian economies, led by China and India, are expected to continue expand albeit more moderate as the Chinese government has already taking steps to cool down over-heated sectors.

NOL NOL Trade Horizon Drewry Transpacific Westbound (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06) (Dec 06)

2003 12.2% 12.2% 11.6% 11.3%2004 5.8% 5.8% 6.3% 7.0%

Q1 8.6% 8.6% 9.1% 10.6%Q2 8.9% 8.9% 10.0% 10.9%Q3 2.7% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7%Q4 2.9% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0%

2005 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 8.8%Q1 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 2.9%Q2 13.1% 13.1% 12.1% 12.6%Q3 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.7%Q4 4.5% 4.5% 5.5% 4.8%

2006f 5.3% 4.5% 8.3% 7.2%Q1 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 9.4%Q2 1.3% 2.7% 2.6% 4.7%Q3 4.9% 2.8% 7.2% 6.4%Q4 6.9% 4.5% 15.5% 8.4%

2007f 5.6% 5.6% 7.7% 8.9%Q1 4.8% 5.0% 7.3% 9.0%Q2 9.2% 6.7% 12.5% 9.0%Q3 4.7% 4.8% 6.0% 9.3%Q4 3.6% 6.0% 5.4% 8.4%


2.0 : ASIA EUROPE TRADE

ASEU (North, Eastern & Central Europe) -

After five years of stubbornly slow growth, the euro area economy has shown signs of a strong recovery since the beginning of the year. In tandem, ASEU trade expanded further by 12.7% in 3Q 06, albeit lower than 2Q. China was the main exporter in 3Q.

In 4Q 06, employment grew at a healthy pace, and a substantial rise in consumer confidence led to a fall in household saving rates. Capacity utilisation was moderately above its long-term average, creating demand for new investment in fixed assets. This points to continued demand for imports from Europe. Nonetheless, the pace is set to slow next year as interest rates are expected to rise more, fiscal policy will be tightened in key countries (notably Germany and Italy), the euro is rising, and export growth should slow.

N Europe - WestboundNOL (Sep 06) NOL (Dec 06) Drewry (Dec 06)

2003 19.1% 19.1% 17.5%2004 15.4% 15.4% 16.5%

Q1 18.8% 18.8% 19.0%Q2 16.5% 16.5% 16.9%Q3 13.8% 13.8% 15.6%Q4 13.2% 13.2% 14.7%

2005 9.8% 9.8% 10.3%Q1 7.7% 7.7% 8.7%Q2 7.8% 7.8% 9.4%Q3 11.4% 11.4% 12.0%Q4 11.9% 11.9% 11.1%

2006f 10.9% 11.7% 12.8%Q1 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%Q2 14.2% 14.0% 14.2%Q3 10.2% 12.7% 13.0%Q4 8.5% 9.2% 12.8%

2007f 9.3% 10.6% 12.1%Q1 8.5% 9.6% 12.1%Q2 9.5% 10.7% 12.1%Q3 10.2% 11.4% 12.1%Q4 8.7% 10.6% 12.1%

2008f 9.3% 9.3% 11.6%Source: FEFC stats, Drewry, forecasts in shades

ASEU (Med)

Demand from Med Europe was very strong; growth was phenomenal at 32.5% in 3Q 06. China was the main exporter. The key importing countries contributing to growth in 3Q are Spain, Italy and Ukraine.

However, the balance of risks is on the downside. Housing markets in several euro area countries, most importantly in Spain, have become substantially overvalued, leaving the risk of a correction, with substantial negative repercussions for residential investment and consumer demand. The British housing market suffered through a mild correction a couple of years ago, but have since rebounded. In a weak growth environment, though, house price appreciation is unlikely to be sustained anywhere.

Med Europe - WestboundNOL (Sep 06) NOL (Dec 06) Drewry (Dec 06)

2003 29.1% 29.1% 19.4%2004 19.8% 19.8% 20.0%

Q1 19.3% 19.3% naQ2 25.7% 25.7% naQ3 16.0% 16.0% naQ4 18.4% 18.4% na

2005 20.3% 20.3% 21.6%Q1 19.5% 19.5% 19.5%Q2 23.5% 23.5% 26.2%Q3 19.4% 19.4% 19.7%Q4 18.8% 18.8% 20.6%

2006f 16.2% 23.5% 23.0%Q1 15.8% 15.8% 15.7%Q2 20.2% 20.2% 19.9%Q3 14.8% 32.5% 32.8%Q4 13.8% 25.0% 23.0%

2007f 12.7% 15.6% 20.9%Q1 12.8% 20.0% 20.9%Q2 10.0% 15.0% 20.9%Q3 15.2% 15.2% 20.9%Q4 13.1% 13.1% 20.9%


ASEU (Combined North and Med Europe)

Europe (N Europe & Med Europe Combined) - WestboundNOL (Sep 06) NOL (Dec 06) Drewry (Dec 06)

2003 21.4% 21.4% 17.9%2004 16.5% 16.5% 17.4%

Q1 18.9% 18.9% naQ2 18.8% 18.8% naQ3 14.3% 14.3% naQ4 14.4% 14.4% na

2005 12.4% 12.4% 13.2%Q1 10.5% 10.5% 11.4%Q2 11.9% 11.9% 13.8%Q3 13.3% 13.3% 14.0%Q4 13.5% 13.5% 13.6%

2006f 12.3% 14.8% 15.4%Q1 12.2% 12.2% 12.1%Q2 15.9% 15.7% 15.8%Q3 11.4% 17.7% 18.0%Q4 9.8% 13.2% 15.4%

2007f 10.2% 12.0% 14.6%Q1 9.6% 12.4% 14.4%Q2 9.6% 12.0% 14.7%Q3 11.5% 12.5% 14.6%Q4 9.8% 11.3% 14.5%


EUAS (North, Central & Eastern Europe)

Asian containerized imports from North, Central and Eastern Europe grew 4.3% in 3Q 06, slightly slower as compared to 5.7% in 2Q. China is the main importer, contributing 11.1% pts to growth. China’s GDP growth was a sizzling 10.6% in the first half of 2006, and continued at a pace of 10.7% in the third quarter.

Going forward, we expect continued steady growth for Asian imports. Asia will need to meet her industrial needs and infrastructure development needs as the economies are expected to remain healthy. We expect some moderation in China next year, mostly because of the government’s measures to dampen investment spending. Strong growth in China is currently partly fuelled by overinvestment in certain sectors.

N Europe - EastboundNOL (Sep 06) NOL (Dec 06) Drewry (Dec 06)

2003 6.3% 6.3% 9.0%2004 14.3% 14.3% 13.7%

Q1 13.7% 13.7% 13.2%Q2 24.8% 24.8% 24.6%Q3 14.2% 14.2% 14.1%Q4 6.1% 6.1% 3.3%

2005 3.5% 3.5% 4.3%Q1 -1.6% -1.6% 1.4%Q2 2.6% 2.6% 3.0%Q3 8.2% 8.2% 8.0%Q4 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

2006f 5.8% 5.5% 5.8%Q1 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%Q2 5.7% 5.7% 5.4%Q3 5.4% 4.3% 4.3%Q4 4.3% 4.3% 5.8%

2007f 5.2% 6.2% 7.8%Q1 5.2% 5.2% 7.8%Q2 4.5% 5.6% 7.8%Q3 5.2% 7.1% 7.8%Q4 6.0% 6.7% 7.8%


EUAS (Med)

3Q 06 saw a significant increase in EUAS (Med) trade growth. Growth picked up to 14.8% from 6.6% on average in the first half of 2006. China alone contributed 19.7% pts in growth. We expect healthy growth right into 2007 as a result of the growing economies in Asia. High savings and/or low gross fixed investment have allowed emerging markets to run external surpluses and previous strong export-led growth has also bolstered demand in many Asian economies.

Med Europe - EastboundNOL (Sep 06) NOL (Dec 06) Drewry (Dec 06)

2003 3.7% 3.7% 6.3%2004 12.8% 12.8% 12.0%

Q1 11.7% 11.7% naQ2 13.6% 13.6% naQ3 20.5% 20.5% naQ4 6.5% 6.5% na

2005 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%Q1 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%Q2 20.8% 20.8% 20.9%Q3 11.7% 11.7% 11.7%Q4 14.0% 14.0% 13.8%

2006f 5.5% 10.4% 8.7%Q1 5.1% 6.4% 5.2%Q2 5.4% 6.6% 6.8%Q3 5.5% 14.8% 14.6%Q4 6.0% 13.4% 8.0%

2007f 8.2% 9.3% 10.0%Q1 8.3% 12.1% 10.0%Q2 8.2% 9.0% 10.0%Q3 9.0% 9.0% 10.0%Q4 7.5% 7.5% 10.0%


EUAS (Combined North and Med Europe)

Europe (N Europe & Med Europe Combined) - EastboundNOL (Sep 06) NOL (Dec 06) Drewry (Dec 06)

2003 5.9% 5.9% 8.4%2004 14.1% 14.1% 13.4%

Q1 13.4% 13.4% naQ2 22.8% 22.8% naQ3 15.2% 15.2% naQ4 6.2% 6.2% na

2005 5.1% 5.1% 6.0%Q1 -0.4% -0.4% 2.3%Q2 5.5% 5.5% 6.3%Q3 8.8% 8.8% 8.7%Q4 6.5% 6.5% 6.9%

2006f 5.7% 6.4% 6.3%Q1 7.4% 7.7% 7.4%Q2 5.7% 5.8% 5.7%Q3 5.4% 6.2% 6.1%Q4 4.6% 5.9% 6.2%

2007f 5.8% 6.7% 8.2%Q1 5.7% 6.4% 8.2%Q2 5.2% 6.2% 8.2%Q3 5.9% 7.5% 8.2%Q4 6.3% 6.9% 8.2%


3.0 : TRANSATLANTIC TRADE

TAWB (North Europe)

TAWB (North Europe) trade slowed to 2.6% in 3Q 06. Germany contributed 1.8% pts to growth. Over the medium term, we expect a moderate growth in line with the slower growth in the US.

NOL NOL Trade Horizon Drewry TAWB (NE) (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06) (Dec 06)

2003 -3.4% -3.4% -1.0% -2.2%2004 2.3% 2.3% 4.8% 6.1%

Q1 -3.8% -3.8% 1.2% 1.4%Q2 0.6% 0.6% 3.2% 3.8%Q3 5.7% 5.7% 7.0% 9.0%Q4 6.6% 6.6% 8.2% 10.0%

2005 4.8% 4.8% 2.3% 3.4%Q1 6.8% 6.8% 5.2% 8.0%Q2 6.0% 6.0% 2.7% 4.7%Q3 0.5% 0.5% -2.9% -2.3%Q4 6.2% 6.2% 4.7% 3.9%

2006f 5.4% 3.8% 3.5% 5.4%Q1 6.3% 6.6% 5.8% 6.4%Q2 2.1% 3.4% 4.9% 4.3%Q3 6.2% 2.6% 2.7% 5.1%Q4 7.0% 3.0% 0.9% 6.0%

2007f 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 3.6%Q1 6.2% 3.3% -1.2% 3.6%Q2 4.6% 3.1% -2.5% 3.6%Q3 3.1% 2.9% 9.8% 3.6%Q4 4.1% 2.9% 0.4% 3.6%


TAWB (Med)

Mediterranean export growth fell back to -1.6% in 3Q 06 after somewhat recovering in 2Q. Italy, its largest exporter dragged down growth by 2.1% pts.

Going forward, we expect growth to dip slightly to 1.5% in 2007, in line with overall US economic performance.

US consumption is expected to slow further as the housing market weakens, although business investment should rebound against the background of strong profits and limited spare capacity. Risks, however, are slanted to the downside.

NOL NOL Trade Horizon Drewry TAWB (Med) (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06) (Dec 06)

2003 6.2% 6.2% 2.5% -3.2%2004 8.0% 8.0% 5.6% 5.6%

Q1 3.8% 3.8% 0.8% 1.9%Q2 13.9% 13.9% 11.0% 10.2%Q3 5.2% 5.2% 3.8% 4.7%Q4 9.6% 9.6% 7.0% 5.6%

2005 -0.6% -0.6% -0.4% 1.7%Q1 0.9% 0.9% 2.8% 2.8%Q2 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 4.2%Q3 -2.6% -2.6% -2.2% -1.8%Q4 -1.1% -1.1% -2.8% 1.0%

2006f 3.1% 2.0% 4.4% 4.3%Q1 -1.5% -1.4% -6.3% -0.3%Q2 8.2% 8.9% 4.5% 10.5%Q3 3.4% -1.6% 9.2% 4.1%Q4 1.8% 1.8% 10.1% 3.2%

2007f 3.0% 1.5% 2.4% 4.0%Q1 6.2% 1.6% 5.6% 4.0%Q2 1.8% 1.5% -0.9% 4.0%Q3 2.2% 1.4% 4.1% 4.0%Q4 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 4.0%

2008f 2.5% 1.5% 2.8% 5.4%Source: JoC, Piers/Trade Horizon, Drewry forecasts in shades

TAEB (North Europe)

Growth of North Europe’s imports from US fell to a mere 1.1% in 3Q 06. The major drag came from UK whose poor imports performance deducted 2.2% pts off growth. This was in spite of UK posted a 2-year high economic growth of 2.8% in 3Q. The strong growth was driven by the services sector rather than the manufacturing sector. We remain conservative about the near term outlook. Europe still remain exposed to the possibility of sharp currency appreciation that could undercut exports and overall growth.

NOL NOL Trade Horizon Drewry TAEB (NE) (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06) (Dec 06)

2003 3.7% 3.7% 1.0% 7.4%2004 5.1% 5.1% 6.7% 8.8%

Q1 -0.3% -0.3% 3.8% 5.3%Q2 2.7% 2.7% 5.6% 8.4%Q3 10.9% 10.9% 11.5% 12.8%Q4 7.8% 7.8% 6.4% 9.0%

2005 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%Q1 3.8% 3.8% 2.9% 7.0%Q2 7.3% 7.3% 6.4% 8.3%Q3 6.6% 6.6% 6.0% 4.4%Q4 3.7% 3.7% 6.4% 1.9%

2006f 1.7% 1.9% 4.8% 0.1%Q1 3.8% 3.8% 4.9% -1.1%Q2 1.2% 2.0% 3.3% -1.2%Q3 1.0% 1.1% 6.3% 1.4%Q4 1.0% 0.7% 4.9% 1.4%

2007f 3.1% 1.5% 4.1% 1.9%Q1 3.2% 1.3% 5.7% 1.9%Q2 3.4% 1.6% 4.1% 1.9%Q3 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 1.9%Q4 3.3% 1.4% 4.2% 1.9%


TAEB (Med)

Med Europe’s imports from across the Atlantic fell back to -1.0% growth in 3Q 06 after a decent 6.3% in 2Q. Israel and Spain were the strongest importers while Turkey proved to be a drag on growth.

We are still cautious about the outlook especially when housing markets appear to be over-valued in some European countries.

We expect very modest growth of 0.0% in 2006, due to a weak start last year. Growth should inch up higher to 2.7% this year.

NOL NOL Trade Horizon Drewry TAEB (Med) (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06) (Dec 06)

2003 21.1% 21.1% 18.1% 25.5%2004 6.1% 6.1% 6.8% 3.7%

Q1 11.7% 11.7% 7.3% 2.1%Q2 12.5% 12.5% 10.9% 2.3%Q3 -5.0% -5.0% 1.7% 13.7%Q4 5.3% 5.3% 7.4% 5.7%

2005 1.3% 1.3% 4.1% 7.7%Q1 3.0% 3.0% 4.4% 2.0%Q2 1.8% 1.8% 8.9% 3.3%Q3 5.5% 5.5% 3.8% 8.4%Q4 -4.7% -4.7% -0.5% 5.8%

2006f 0.3% 0.0% 4.2% 4.9%Q1 -9.9% -9.8% -2.9% -2.0%Q2 5.1% 6.3% 1.4% 12.8%Q3 1.0% -1.0% 7.3% 10.0%Q4 5.9% 5.0% 11.4% 11.7%

2007f 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.4%Q1 1.1% 1.1% 10.9% 3.4%Q2 2.5% 2.5% 0.6% 3.4%Q3 4.5% 4.5% 2.6% 3.4%Q4 2.9% 2.9% 2.0% 3.4%


4.0 : LATIN AMERICA-NORTH AMERICA TRADE

LTAM

LTNB posted a marginal growth of 4.2% in 3Q 06 compared with modest growth of 1.1% in 2Q. Given the current slowing in US economic activity, we do not expect any significant improvement in trade performance going forward and forecast growth to be 2.0% for 2006 on average before moderating slightly to 1.8% this year.

LTSB growth increased to 8.4% in 3Q06 from 1.4% in 2Q, in line with a modestly healthy economic growth in Latin America. These economies have been bolstered by strong demand from the US earlier in the year and high prices for soft commodities.

However, structural weakness is expected to depress Latin American performance, especially in comparison with other emerging regions. Although the share of gross fixed investment in GDP has risen in Latin America, it remains low, and this will continue to depress the region's long-term growth potential. Of all the emerging markets, Latin America will bear the brunt of a US slowdown and global monetary policy tightening. We expect growth of 4.0% in 2006 before easing to 3.5% in 2007.

LTNBNOL NOL Trade Horizon

LT Northbound (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06)2003 16.5% 16.5% 14.6%2004 12.0% 12.0% 9.7%2005 -0.2% -0.2% 2.2%

2006f -0.7% 2.0% 7.4%2007f 2.2% 1.8% 6.2%2008f 2.9% 2.9% 5.6%

Source: JoC, Piers/Trade Horizon, Drewry, forecasts in shades

LTSBNOL NOL Trade Horizon

LT Southbound (Sep 06) (Dec 06) (Sep 06)2003 2.1% 2.1% 1.4%2004 11.4% 11.4% 12.4%2005 3.8% 3.8% 2.5%

2006f 0.4% 4.0% 5.8%2007f 1.2% 3.5% 5.4%2008f 2.0% 2.0% 5.0%

Source: JoC, Piers/Trade Horizon, Drewry, forecasts in shades

5.0 : INTRA ASIA TRADE

INTRA-ASIA

Source: Far East/Mid East are based on Conf Stats, Intra Far East and Far East/Indian Subcon based on Global Insight

The Far East and Middle Eastern trade is expected to see a moderation of its trade to sustainable levels. The moderation in Asian economies will also see a moderation of imports of semi-intermediates such as petrochemicals from Middle East.

Oil prices have eased but should still keep oil rich Middle East economies importing finished products from Far East, though the growth may moderate somewhat.

Intra Asia trade is expected to grow 9.3% in 2006 and 9.1% in 2007 driven largely by final demand in China. Moreover, the Asian economies have undertaken disruptive economic restructuring to move up the value chain to better complement the Chinese economy rather than compete with it. This should enhance the Intra regional trade. The factor that could undermine the robust trade is a drastic slowdown in the Chinese economy.

We expect the trade between Indian Subcon and Far East to remain healthy in 2007. Growth will continue to be propelled by continued economic growth in these two regions. The agricultural sector of Indian Subcon should do well and will support private consumption. There are very few signs of overheating in the Indian economy although growth is likely to moderate slightly over the course of 2007.

IntraFar East

2003 9.6%2004 11.3%2005 4.7%2006f 9.3%2007f 9.1%2008f 9.1%

Far East to Middle East

2003 19.6%2004 28.2%2005 11.9%2006f 10.5%2007f 9.2%2008f 9.0%

Middle East toFar East

2003 5.6%2004 21.7%2005 19.2%2006f 17.3%2007f 15.2%2008f 13.0%

Far East toIndia Sub Con

2003 16.4%2004 13.8%2005 9.7%2006f 9.5%2007f 9.4%2008f 9.4%

India Sub Con toFar East

2003 4.4%2004 13.2%2005 9.7%2006f 7.5%2007f 7.5%2008f 8.0%Forecasts in shades

page 1 trade demand forecasts q4 2006 prepared by: group research & development (grd) january...

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