perkembangan ekonomi 5 april 2013

PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMISAMPAI DENGAN 5 APRIL 2013

BAMBANG PRIJAMBODO

STAF AHLI MENTERI NEGARA PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL

BIDANG EKONOMI DAN PEMBIAYAAN PEMBANGUNAN

PERKEMBANGAN TERAKHIR EKONOMI DUNIA

2

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Beberapa Kawasan Dunia

Ekonomi AS, Jepang, Eropa, dan Cina

Perdagangan Dunia

Defisit Anggaran dan Stok Utang Pemerintah

Geo Ekonomi Dunia

40 Negara Terbesar: Produk Domestik Bruto

120 Negara Terbesar: Produk Domestik Bruto per Kapita

Nilai Tukar Mata Uang

Cadangan Devisa

Long Term Bond Yield dan Credit Default Swap: Asia dan Eropa

Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia

Produksi, Konsumsi, dan Stok Minyak Mentah Dunia

Produksi dan Spare Capacity Minyak Mentah dan Bahan Bakar Cair OPEC

Harga Komoditi Primer

Inflasi Global

Indeks Saham Global

World Economic Outlook 2013 - 2014

Poll of Forecaster (the Economist) Terbaru

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO(% perubahan, y-o-y)

20122011201220112010200920082007200620052004NegaraTw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2

1,62,62,12,42,01,61,92,21,82,4-3,1-0,31,92,73,13,5 Amerika Serikat1,11,52,72,02,42,92,01,82,63,2-2,81,12,52,93,03,1 Kanada0,50,43,93,4-0,3-0,5-1,62,0-0,64,7-5,5-1,02,11,71,32,4 Jepang0,30,2-0,20,30,70,50,40,20,91,3-4,80,73,02,82,12,8 Inggris0,40,91,01,21,92,73,00,93,13,5-5,01,32,63,00,81,2 Jerman

-0,30,00,10,21,11,51,70,01,71,4-2,20,82,12,41,92,2 Perancis-0,9-1,2-0,4-1,0-0,80,91,4-0,91,01,6-4,02,03,63,42,02,2 Belanda-2,7-2,4-2,3-1,3-0,50,41,0-2,20,61,8-5,0-1,01,52,10,81,4 Itali-1,9-1,6-1,4-0,70,00,60,5-1,40,4-0,3-3,70,93,64,03,63,3 Spanyol1,11,82,33,54,24,04,72,04,43,91,65,16,86,23,65,3 Polandia

-3,8-3,5-3,1-2,3-3,1-1,8-0,9-3,2-1,61,9-2,90,01,91,40,91,5 Portugal-6,0-6,7-6,4-6,7-7,9-4,0-7,9-6,5-7,2-4,9-2,42,04,54,52,24,6 Yunani-2,8-1,7-1,3-1,21,21,31,9-1,81,71,2-6,30,61,04,03,54,9 Hongaria

0,80,11,72,81,02,9 1,4-0,8-5,5-2,15,45,36,04,6 Irlandia0,1-0,31,30,82,33,21,40,52,1-1,2-7,17,36,37,94,28,5 Romania

-0,9-0,6-0,5-0,10,61,31,6-0,51,42,0-4,40,43,03,21,72,2 Zona Eropa (17)3,13,13,74,42,72,92,43,62,42,61,32,14,02,82,83,8 Australia

1,62,53,03,32,60,31,41,2-2,1-0,12,81,03,34,5 Selandia Baru7,97,47,68,18,99,19,57,89,310,48,79,013,011,610,410,1 Cina4,55,35,55,36,16,78,05,27,58,96,46,210,09,59,07,6 India1,51,52,32,83,33,63,52,03,66,30,32,35,15,24,04,6 Korea Selatan3,41,0-0,10,61,23,54,61,34,110,8-1,80,76,05,44,76,2 Taiwan1,50,02,31,53,66,01,21,34,914,8-0,81,17,88,47,39,3 Singapura2,51,41,00,83,04,05,11,44,96,8-2,52,16,57,07,48,7 Hong Kong6,16,26,46,36,56,56,56,26,56,24,66,06,35,55,75,0 Indonesia6,45,25,65,15,25,74,35,65,17,2-1,64,86,25,85,36,8 Malaysia

18,93,14,40,4-8,93,72,76,40,17,8-2,32,54,95,24,66,3 Thailand6,97,15,96,34,03,23,66,63,97,61,14,26,65,24,86,7 Filipina

2,94,04,94,84,83,44,34,3-7,85,28,58,26,47,2 Rusia1,41,62,93,35,38,79,32,28,89,0-4,80,74,76,98,49,4 Turki1,40,90,50,81,42,13,30,92,77,5-0,35,26,14,03,25,7 Brasil3,23,24,54,93,94,42,93,93,95,5-6,31,23,25,13,24,0 Meksiko2,52,33,12,43,43,23,62,53,53,1-1,53,65,55,65,33,3 Afrika Selatan

Sumber: Badan Statistik Negara Bersangkutan

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI BEBERAPA KAWASAN DUNIA (TRIWULANAN)

4

-2

0

2

4

6

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

AS Jepang EA (17)

PDB: AS, JEPANG, EA(17)

Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Australia Selandia Baru Kanada

PDB: KANADA, AUSTRALIA, NZ


0

2

4

6

8

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Brasil Meksiko Rusia

PDB: RUSIA, BRASIL, MEKSIKO


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

S

e

l

a

i

n

Y

u

n

a

n

i

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

Y

u

n

a

n

i

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Inggris Jerman Perancis Itali Spanyol Belanda

Yunani Portugal Irlandia Hongaria Polandia

PDB: KAWASAN EROPA (17)


53

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

S

e

l

a

i

n

T

h

a

i

l

a

n

d

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

-11

-7

-3

1

5

9

13

17

21

T

h

a

i

l

a

n

d

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Filipina

PDB: ASIA TENGGARA


7

8

9

10

11

12

C

i

n

a

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

4,0

5,6

7,2

8,8

10,4

12,0

I

n

d

i

a

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Cina India

PDB: CINA DAN INDIA


-5

0

5

10

15

20

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Korsel S'pura Taiwan HongKong

PDB: NEGARA INDUSTRI ASIA


2,0

2,4

2,8

3,2

3,6

4,0

A

f

s

e

l

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

0,0

2,8

5,6

8,4

11,2

14,0

T

u

r

k

i

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Afsel Turki

PDB: AFRIKA SELATAN DAN TURKI


PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI BEBERAPA KAWASAN DUNIA (TAHUNAN)

-5

0

5

10

15

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Korsel Taiwan S'pura HongKong

PDB: NEGARA INDUSTRI BARU ASIA

Tahun 2000 - 2012

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

AS EA(17) Jepang

PDB: AS, JEPANG, EA(17)

Tahun 2000 - 2012

-10

-5

0

5

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inggris Jerman Perancis Itali Spanyol

Belanda Yunani Portugal Irlandia Hongaria

PDB: KAWASAN EROPA (17)

Tahun 2000 - 2012

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Kanada Australia Selandia Baru

PDB: KANADA, AUSTRALIA, SELANDIA BARU

Tahun 2000 - 2012

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

C

i

n

a

,

I

n

d

i

a

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

-8

-5

-2

1

4

7

10

R

u

s

i

a

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Cina India Rusia

PDB: CINA, INDIA, RUSIA

Tahun 2000 - 2012

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Filipina

PDB: ASIA TENGGARA

Tahun 2000 - 2012

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Brasil Meksiko

PDB: BRASIL DAN MEKSIKO

Tahun 2000 - 2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Vietnam Meksiko

PDB: VIETNAM DAN PAKISTAN

Tahun 2000 - 2012

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Afsel Turki

PDB: AFRIKA SELATAN DAN TURKI

Tahun 2000 - 2012

7EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT

-10

-3

4

11

18

25

C

p

,

G

,

I

p

,

I

p

(

R

e

s

)

,

X

,

M

(

y

-

o

-

y

)

1,0

1,4

1,8

2,2

2,6

3,0

P

D

B

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

1,9

2,5

2,8

2,4

1,81,9

1,6

2

2,4

2,1

2,6

PDB

Ip (Res)

Cp

X

M

Ip

Ig+Cg

PERTUMBUHAN PDB AMERIKA SERIKAT


-1,0

0,2

1,4

2,6

3,8

5,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

a

n

n

u

a

l

r

a

t

e

)

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

2,3 2,22,6 2,4

0,1

2,5

1,3

4,1

2,0

1,3

3,1

0,1

q-t-q at annual rate y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT


11000

11700

12400

13100

13800

14500

#

(

0

0

0

o

r

a

n

g

)

7,6

7,9

8,2

8,5

8,8

9,1

P

e

r

s

e

n

t

a

s

e

(

%

)

Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13

# Pengangguran Persentase

PENGANGGURAN AMERIKA SERIKAT

Juli 2011 - Maret 2013

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

P

M

I

(

I

n

d

e

k

s

)

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

R

e

t

a

i

l

S

a

l

e

s

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

,

y

o

-

y

)

Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13

PMI Retail Sales

PMI DAN RETAIL SALES: AMERIKA SERIKAT

Januari 2011 - Maret 2013

8US REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTPercent Change From Quarter One Year Ago (y-o-y)

2012:42012:32012:22012:12011:42011:32011:220122011201020092008200720062005

1,62,62,12,42,01,61,92,21,82,4-3,1-0,31,92,73,1Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1,91,91,91,81,92,52,71,92,51,8-1,9-0,62,32,93,4Personal consumption expenditures 3,23,52,92,62,83,44,03,13,83,6-3,0-2,53,03,34,2 Goods8,48,47,56,95,96,26,77,87,26,2-5,4-4,95,04,55,9 Durable goods0,91,30,90,71,42,12,70,92,32,3-1,8-1,21,92,63,2 Nondurable goods1,21,11,41,31,52,02,01,31,91,0-1,40,41,92,63,0 Services2,911,110,914,110,91,53,99,65,213,7-24,8-10,2-3,22,75,5Gross private domestic investment6,56,29,911,99,08,44,38,56,6-0,2-19,0-7,1-1,92,46,5 Fixed investment4,64,69,712,510,210,17,47,78,60,7-18,1-0,86,58,06,7 Nonresidential4,76,111,219,76,96,40,910,12,7-15,6-21,16,414,19,21,4 Structures4,64,09,210,011,411,510,06,911,08,9-16,4-4,33,37,68,5 Equipment and software

14,913,610,49,33,91,4-7,112,1-1,4-3,7-22,4-23,9-18,7-7,36,2 Residential................................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Change in private inventories ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....Net exports of goods and services1,83,24,34,04,36,57,43,36,711,1-9,16,19,39,06,7 Exports1,54,55,85,05,46,77,44,27,214,3-12,06,39,79,47,5 Goods2,60,20,71,71,86,17,31,35,64,7-2,65,68,37,95,0 Services0,12,53,93,23,52,24,42,44,812,5-13,5-2,72,46,16,1 Imports

-0,22,43,52,63,42,14,82,15,214,9-15,6-3,82,65,96,8 Goods1,73,05,76,23,82,92,74,12,82,5-3,33,61,47,12,8 Services

-1,7-0,5-2,2-2,2-3,3-3,8-3,2-1,7-3,10,63,72,61,31,40,3Gov't consumption and gross inv-2,80,0-3,3-2,6-4,2-4,1-2,2-2,2-2,84,56,17,21,22,11,3 Federal-4,9-1,6-4,0-2,0-4,0-2,8-1,7-3,1-2,63,06,07,52,21,61,5 National defense1,53,6-2,0-3,8-4,6-6,9-3,1-0,3-3,17,76,56,5-0,83,20,9 Nondefense

-1,0-0,9-1,5-2,0-2,7-3,6-3,8-1,4-3,4-1,82,20,01,40,9-0,2 State and local0,13,11,32,04,11,32,5GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted at annual rate)0,00,80,30,51,00,30,6GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted)

Sumber: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce; Second Estimate, 28 February 2013

2000

6000

10000

14000

18000

22000

T

o

t

a

l

U

t

a

n

g

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

50

62

74

86

98

110

P

e

r

s

e

n

t

a

s

e

(

%

P

D

B

A

S

)

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014*)

Utang % PDB AS

TOTAL UTANG PEMERINTAH AMERIKA SERIKAT

Thn 1990-2011, '12-17 (proyeksi OMB)

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

D

e

f

i

s

i

t

A

n

g

g

a

r

a

n

,

C

A

(

%

P

D

B

A

S

)

0

24

48

72

96

120

U

t

a

n

g

P

e

m

.

F

e

d

e

r

a

l

A

S

(

%

P

D

B

A

S

)

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014*)

Defisit Budget Trans Berjalan Utang Pem AS

TRANSAKSI BERJALAN, BUDGET, UTANG AS

Thn 1990 - 2011, '12-17 (proyeksi OMB)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

P

e

n

e

r

i

m

a

a

n

,

P

e

n

g

e

l

u

a

r

a

n

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

-12

-8

-4

0

4

D

e

f

i

s

i

t

(

%

P

D

B

)

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Penerimaan Pengeluaran Defisit

AMERIKA SERIKAT: APBN

Tahun 1996 - 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

#

(

0

0

0

o

r

a

n

g

)


NON FARM PAYROLL

Januari 2011 - Februari 2013

400

515

630

745

860

975

R

i

b

u

-20

-6

8

22

36

50

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Building Permits Kenaikan

US HOUSING STARTED

Januari 2011 - Januari 2013

400

510

620

730

840

950

R

i

b

u

-20

-6

8

22

36

50

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Building Permits Kenaikan

US BUILDING PERMITS


-140

-128

-116

-104

-92

-80

T

r

a

n

s

a

k

s

i

B

e

r

j

a

l

a

n

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

-1000

-640

-280

80

440

800

E

k

s

p

o

r

,

I

m

p

o

r

,

T

r

a

n

s

f

e

r

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1

-95,3

-82,8

-97,9-100,6

-111,0-111,7-114,6

-104,7

-120,0-119,1

-108,2

-118,7

-133,8

-118,4

-112,4-110,4

Trans Berjln Ekspor Brg Js Impor Brg Js Transfer

NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN AS


42

51

60

69

78

87

I

n

d

e

k

s

-20

-8

4

16

28

40

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Indeks Kenaikan

KEYAKINAN KONSUMEN AMERIKA SERIKAT

Reuter/Michigan Index, Jan 11 - Mar 13

1,20

1,26

1,32

1,38

1,44

1,50

U

S

D

/

E

u

r

o

0,0

0,8

1,6

2,4

3,2

4,0

I

n

f

l

a

s

i

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

,

F

e

d

F

u

n

d

s

R

a

t

e

(

%

)


Kurs Fed Funds Inflasi (y-o-y)

KURS USD, INFLASI, DAN FED FUNDS RATE


EKONOMI JEPANG

10

-2,5

-1,6

-0,7

0,2

1,1

2,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-2,0

-0,4

1,2

2,8

4,4

6,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

1,51,0

1,4

-0,4

-1,8

-0,9

2,5

0,1

1,5

-0,2

-0,9

0,0

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: JEPANG


-2

0

2

4

6

P

D

B

,

C

(

p

r

i

v

)

,

C

(

H

o

u

s

e

h

o

l

d

)

-20

-5

10

25

40

I

(

r

e

s

)

,

I

(

n

o

n

-

r

e

s

)

,

C

g

,

I

g

,

X

,

M

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

Ip (Res)

GDP

C(Private)

C(Household)

Ip (Non-Res)

Cg

Ig

X

M

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI JEPANG

Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012 (y-o-y)

JAPAN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTPercent Change From Quarter One Year Ago (y-o-y)

2012:42012:32012:22012:12011:42011:32011:220122011201020092008200720062005

0,50,43,93,4-0,3-0,5-1,62,0-0,64,7-5,5-1,02,21,71,3GDP (expenditure approach)1,11,33,14,01,20,50,52,40,52,8-0,7-0,90,91,11,5Private Consumption1,11,23,13,81,10,30,32,20,32,7-0,8-0,91,01,11,5Consumption of Households1,01,23,44,41,20,30,22,50,23,0-1,2-1,40,90,91,4Excluding Imputed Rent5,71,44,6-0,13,38,23,52,95,5-4,5-16,6-6,6-9,80,6-0,9Private Residential Investment

-7,01,57,36,99,9-0,2-0,52,13,30,3-14,3-2,64,94,05,7Private Non-Residential Investment---------------------------------------------Private Inventory

3,02,62,62,41,01,21,32,71,51,92,3-0,11,10,00,8Government Consumption19,615,111,35,0-7,5-4,7-2,212,5-7,50,77,0-7,4-5,9-5,1-10,1Public Investment

---------------------------------------------Public Inventory---------------------------------------------Goods and Services

-5,7-4,89,20,9-2,60,8-5,5-0,3-0,424,4-24,21,48,79,96,2 Exports0,75,19,16,75,75,13,65,35,911,1-15,70,32,34,54,2 Imports0,2-3,7-0,96,10,410,6-3,4GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted at annual rate)0,0-0,9-0,21,50,12,5-0,9GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan; 2nd Preliminary, 8 March 2013

11

200

360

520

680

840

1000

U

t

a

n

g

(

Y

e

n

T

r

i

l

i

u

n

)

60

90

120

150

180

210

%

P

D

B

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Utang Rasio PDB

UTANG PEMERINTAH JEPANG

Tahun 1996 - 2012

31

34

37

40

43

46

I

n

d

e

k

s

-30

-18

-6

6

18

30

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Indeks Kenaikan

INDEKS KEYAKINAN KONSUMEN JEPANG

Januari 2011- Februari 2013

83

86

89

92

95

98

I

n

d

e

k

s

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Indeks Kenaikan

INDEKS KEYAKINAN BISNIS JEPANG


240

256

272

288

304

320

#

(

p

u

l

u

h

r

i

b

u

o

r

g

)

4,0

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

5,0

P

e

r

s

e

n

t

a

s

e

(

%

)



PENGANGGURAN JEPANG

Juli 2011 - Fabruari 2013

EKONOMI KAWASAN EROPA

12

-1,0

-0,6

-0,2

0,2

0,6

1,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-1,0

-0,3

0,4

1,1

1,8

2,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,4

1,0

0,40,3

0,8

0,1 0,1

-0,4

0,0

-0,2-0,1

-0,6

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI KAWASAN EROPA (17)


-1,0

-0,3

0,4

1,1

1,8

2,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,5

2,1

0,80,5

1,2

0,5 0,4

-0,1

0,50,3 0,2

-0,6

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI JERMAN


-0,40

-0,12

0,16

0,44

0,72

1,00

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-0,5

0,1

0,7

1,3

1,9

2,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,3

0,50,4

0,3

0,9

0,0

0,3

0,0

-0,1-0,1

0,1

-0,3

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PERANCIS


-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-1,0

-0,3

0,4

1,1

1,8

2,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,3

1,1

0,6

-0,5

0,3

-0,1

0,6

-0,4

-0,1

-0,4

1,0

-0,3

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INGGRIS


13

-1,0

-0,6

-0,2

0,2

0,6

1,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-3,0

-1,8

-0,6

0,6

1,8

3,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

1,0

0,60,4

0,20,1

0,3

-0,1

-0,7-0,8

-0,7

-0,2

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI ITALI


-1,5

-0,9

-0,3

0,3

0,9

1,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,4

1,1

0,0

0,6 0,5

-0,1-0,2

-0,6

0,1 0,2

-1,0

-0,2

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI BELANDA


-2,0

-1,4

-0,8

-0,2

0,4

1,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-4

-2,8

-1,6

-0,4

0,8

2

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,9

0,3 0,2

-0,3

-0,9

-0,1

-0,5

-1,6

-0,1

-1,0-0,9

-1,8

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PORTUGAL


-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,10,2

-0,1

0,1

0,30,2

0,0

-0,5-0,4 -0,4

-0,3

-0,8

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: SPANYOL


14

-1,5

-0,8

-0,1

0,6

1,3

2

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-3,0

-1,8

-0,6

0,6

1,8

3,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

1,0

0,30,5

-1,4

0,7

2,0

-0,5

0,7

-0,5

0,40,2

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: IRLANDIA

Triwulan I/2010 - III/2012

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

-1,0

-2,8

-6,6

-9,0 -8,8-7,9

-4,0

-7,9

-6,7 -6,4 -6,7-6,0

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI YUNANI


-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

1,4

0,1

0,8

0,2

0,7

0,0 0,0 0,1

-1,0

-0,5 -0,4

-0,9

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: HONGARIA


0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

0,6

1,21,3

0,9

1,1

1,3

0,70,8

0,4

0,1

0,3

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI POLANDIA


15

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

-0,2

0,2

-1,4

0,5

1,2

0,2

1,1

-0,2 -0,2

0,3

-0,2

0,2

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: ROMANIA


-1,5

-0,9

-0,3

0,3

0,9

1,5

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

-3,0

-1,8

-0,6

0,6

1,8

3,0

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

1,3

0,1

0,8

0,3 0,3

0,0

-1,0

-0,3-0,6

-0,8-0,7-1,0

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: SIPRUS


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

E

u

r

o

M

i

l

i

a

r

2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1

NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN EA(17)


96

97,4

98,8

100,2

101,6

103

I

n

d

e

k

s

-3

-1,6

-0,2

1,2

2,6

4

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13

Indeks Kenaikan

INDEKS PRODUKSI KAWASAN EROPA (17)

Juli 2011 - Januari 2013

16

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

I

n

d

e

k

s


EU(17)

Portugal

Itali

Yunani

Spanyol

SENTIMENT INDEX: KAWASAN EROPA (17)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

p

e

r

s

e

n

(

%

)

Jan'11 Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13

EA(16)

Jerman

Perancis

Inggris

Itali

Spanyol

Portugal

Yunani

Irlandia

LONG TERM BOND YIELD: EROPA


1,20

1,26

1,32

1,38

1,44

1,50

U

S

D

/

E

u

r

o

-0,5

0,2

0,9

1,6

2,3

3,0

I

n

f

l

a

s

i

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

,

S

u

k

u

B

u

n

g

a

(

%

)


Kurs Sk Bunga Inflasi

KURS EURO, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA


44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

I

n

d

e

k

s


PMI MANUFACTURE: EUROPE (MARKIT)


17

19

20

21

22

23

24

%

P

D

B

2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 2012:1

BUSINESS INVESTMENT RATE EA(17)


14000

15100

16200

17300

18400

19500

#

(

r

i

b

u

o

r

g

)

10,0

10,4

10,8

11,3

11,7

12,1

P

e

r

s

e

n

t

a

s

e

(

%

)



PENGANGGURAN KAWASAN EROPA (17)

Juli 2011 - Februari 2013

5

10

15

20

25

30

[

p

e

r

s

e

n

,

%

]


EA(17)

Jerman

Perancis

Inggris

Portugal

Itali

Spanyol

Yunani

PENGANGGURAN: BEBERAPA NEGARA EROPA


50

52

54

56

58

I

n

d

e

k

s

Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13

PMI MANUFACTURE: INDIA (HSBC)


EKONOMI CINA2012:42012:32012:22012:12011:42011:32011:220122011201020092008200720062005

7,97,47,68,18,99,19,57,89,310,48,79,013,011,610,4PERTUMBUHAN PDB (%, y-o-y)2,02,12,01,51,92,32,4 (% perubahan q-t-q)

Sektor (%, y-t-d)4,54,24,33,84,33,83,24,54,3 Primer8,18,18,39,110,310,810,98,110,3 Sekunder8,17,97,77,59,49,09,28,19,4 Tersier2,51,92,23,64,16,16,4INFLASI

6,006,006,316,656,566,566,316,006,565,81SUKU BUNGA ACUAN (%)14,419,818,518,717,313,115,914,417,317,3UANG KUASI, M2, (% perub, y-o-y)

PERDAGANGAN LUAR NEGERI CINA (USD Miliar)555541525430507518475205118991578 Ekspor471462456429459454428181817411394 Impor

NERACA PEMBAYARAN (USD Miliar)-65424605359202238243421353232132Current Account Balance

-109122718567244254250361316218134 Good Balance11-22-18-15-20-11-55-31-29-12-8-9-10 Service Balance30-16-18-15-20-11-55-31-29-12-8-9-10 Income Balance-21225625413243372824 Transfer Balance

-67-4156-29669822128719840944995Cap and Fin Account Balance-2111115543344 Capital Account Balance

-65-4255-30659621628219537914591 Financial Account Balance-5241494929481701868711513910090 Direct Investment Balance14-13-15-15-16-12-50-58-44-57-17-24-14 Abroad Balance

-665464644560220244131172156124104 In China Balance-16119110112024273516-68-5 Portfolio Investment Balance

2-94-4-812637267280-113-64146 Other Investment Balance33123285324033053181320231983312318128472399194615301068822CADANGAN DEVISA (USD Miliar)

INVESTMENT (% perub, y-o-y)20,620,520,420,923,824,925,620,623,8 Fixed Investment16,215,416,623,527,932,032,916,227,9 Real Estate

PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX (Rata2 Bulanan)50,549,751,351,549,950,951,950,851,4 Manufaktur55,755,256,057,055,956,757,856,055,5 Non Manufaktur

CONFIDENCE1059910210399105107102103 Consumer (Index)

14,913,513,915,017,517,317,214,317,2 Ritel (% perubahan, y-o-y)61,861,163,764,467,569,370,662,869,6 Business (Index)10,09,19,511,712,813,813,910,113,7NILAI TAMBAH INDUSTRI (% perubahan, y-o-y)

Sumber: Diolah dari Badan Statistik Cina, Bea Cukai Cina, Dept. Perdagangan Cina, SAFE Cina, Bank Sentral Cina

19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

(

Y

-

T

-

D

)

2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

3,5 3,23,8

4,33,8

4,3 4,2

11,1 10,9 10,810,3

9,18,3 8,1 8,1

9,1 9,2 9,0 9,4

7,5 7,7 7,98,1

Primer Sekunder Tersier

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI CINA: SEKTOR (YTD)


1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

2,4

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

q

-

t

-

q

)

7

7,6

8,2

8,8

9,4

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3

2,2

2,42,3

1,9

1,5

2,02,1

2,0

q-t-q y-o-y

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI CINA


INDIKATOR BULANAN EKONOMI CINAMaret 2012 - Februari 2013

FebJan'13DesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprMar6,2226,2196,2316,2276,2376,2866,3506,3626,3556,3706,2776,302Kurs (Yuan/USD)

3,22,02,52,01,71,92,01,82,23,03,43,6Inflasi (%, y-o-y)108,2104,5103,7105,1106,1100,899,498,299,3104,2103,0100,0Consumer Confidence (Indeks)

50,150,450,650,650,249,849,250,150,250,453,353,1PMI Manufaktur (Indeks)54,556,256,155,655,553,756,355,656,755,256,158,0PMI Non-Manufaktur (Indeks)

9921397416944839364194369924899190792504900048896089957Uang Kuasi (M2) (Yuan Miliar)21,2 20,620,720,720,520,220,420,420,120,220,9Inv Fixed Assets (% perub, yoy)22,8 16,216,715,415,415,615,416,618,518,723,5Inv Real Estate (% perub, yoy)12,3 15,214,914,514,213,213,113,713,814,115,2Ritel Sales (% perub, yoy)

9,9 10,310,19,69,28,99,29,59,69,311,9Indeks Produksi (% perub, yoy)13,1 11,010,810,310,210,210,611,311,912,714,1Penjualan Industri (% perub,yoy)17,2 5,33,00,5-1,8-3,1-2,7-2,2-2,4-1,6-1,3Profit Industri (% perub, yoy139187199180176186178177180181163166Ekspor (USD Miliar)124158168160144159151152148162145160Impor (USD Miliar)

16293220322827253219195Neraca Perdagangan (USD Mil)Sumber: Statistics China. Februari mewakili bulan Januari dan Februari

20

100

120

140

160

180

200

N

i

l

a

i

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

-5

2

9

16

23

30

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Nilai Kenaikan

EKSPOR CINA


75

95

115

135

155

175

N

i

l

a

i

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

-20

-6

8

22

36

50

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Nilai Kenaikan

IMPOR CINA


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13

NILAI TAMBAH INDUSTRI: CINA

April 2011 - Jan/Feb 2013

20,0

21,2

22,4

23,6

24,8

26,0

R

e

a

l

E

s

a

t

e

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

15

20

25

30

35

40

F

i

x

e

d

A

s

s

e

t

s

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

Feb Mei Agt Nov Feb Mei Agt Nov Feb

Real Estate Fixed Assets

KENAIKAN INVESTASI DI CINA

Jan/Feb 2011 - Jan/Feb 2013

49

50

51

52

53

54

I

n

d

e

k

s

M

a

n

u

f

a

k

t

u

r

53,0

54,2

55,4

56,6

57,8

59,0

I

n

d

e

k

s

N

o

n

-

M

a

n

u

f

a

k

t

u

r


Manufaktur Non-Manufaktur

PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX: CINA

April 2011 - Februari 2013

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt

PENJUALAN RITEL: CINA

April 2011 - Januari/Februari 2013

94

97

100

103

106

109

I

n

d

e

k

s

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

K

e

n

a

i

k

a

n

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)


Indeks Kenaikan

INDEKS KEYAKINAN KONSUMEN CINA


6,20

6,27

6,34

6,41

6,48

6,55

6,62

Y

u

a

n

/

U

S

D

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

I

n

l

f

a

s

i

(

%

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

,

B

a

s

e

R

a

t

e

(

%

)


Kurs Base Rate Inflasi

KURS YUAN, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA


-10

0

10

20

30

P

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

(

%

)


Penjualan (y-t-d) Total Profit (y-t-d)

PENJUALAN & PROFIT INDUSTRI: CINA

April 2011 - Jan/Feb 2013

PERDAGANGAN DUNIA

21

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*)

Negara Maju Ngr Berkembang

EKSPOR NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG

Tahun 2004-2011, 2012-14 (proyeksi)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*)


IMPOR NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG

Tahun 2004-2011, 2012-14 (proyeksi)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

V

o

l

P

e

r

d

a

g

a

n

g

a

n

D

u

n

i

a

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

)

-20

-12

-4

4

12

20

28

H

a

r

g

a

K

o

m

o

d

i

t

i

N

o

n

-

M

i

g

a

s

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

)

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*)

Vol. Perdagangan Harga Komoditi Non-Migas

VOL. PERDAGANGAN DAN HARGA KOMODITI

Tahun 1996-2011, 2012-2014 (Proyeksi)

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200


BALTIC DRY INDEX


22

DEFISIT ANGGARAN DAN STOK UTANG PEMERINTAH

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

%

P

D

B

EA (17)

Jerman

Perancis

Inggris

Itali

Spanyol

Belanda

Yunani

Portugal

Irlandia

87,2 81,2 85,8 85,7

120,1

68,5 65,2

165,3

107,8 108,2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

STOK UTANG BEBERAPA NEGARA UNI EROPA

Tahun 2007 - 2011

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

(

%

P

D

B

)

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Jerman Perancis Inggris Itali Spanyol

Belanda Yunani Portugal Irlandia AS

DEFISIT ANGGARAN AS DAN NEGARA EROPA

Tahun 1999 - 2011

-11

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

%

P

D

B

Irlandia

Inggris

Spanyol

AS

Yunani

Portugal

Perancis

Jepang

Eropa

Belanda

Belgia

Denmark

Jerman

Itali

Turki

Austria

Hongaria

Kanada

Polandia

Swedia

-8,3 -8,3 -8,0-7,0 -7,0

-6,1

-4,5

-9,8

-3,3-4,1

-3,3 -3,6

0,1

-3,0-2,0

-2,6 -2,8-3,7 -3,7

0,0

DEFISIT ANGGARAN AS, JEPANG, EROPA

Tahun 2012*)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

%

P

D

B

Vietnam

India

Malaysia

Thailand

Pakistan

Taiwan

Korsel

Filipina

Chili

Brasil

Cina

Meksiko

Hong Kong

Indonesia

S'pura

Argentina

-4,8-5,6

-4,7

-3,4

-6,6

-2,3

2,1

-1,5

1,4

-2,5

-1,6-2,4

1,0

-1,8

1,1

-2,8

DEFISIT ANGGARAN ASIA & AMERIKA LATIN

Tahun 2012*)

DEFISIT ANGGARAN DAN STOK UTANG EROPA

23

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

%

P

D

B

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Jerman Irlandia Yunani Spanyol Perancis

Itali Belanda Polandia Portugal Inggris

DEFISIT ANGGARAN UNI EROPA

Tahun 1998 - 2011

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

%

P

D

B

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Belgia Denmark Siprus Luxem

Hongaria Finlandia Swedia Norwegia

DEFISIT ANGGARAN UNI EROPA

Tahun 1998 - 2011

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

%

P

D

B

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Jerman Irlandia Yunani Spanyol Perancis

Itali Belanda Polandia Portugal Inggris

STOK UTANG UNI EROPA

Tahun 1998 - 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

%

P

D

B

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Belgia Denmark Siprus Luxem

Hongaria Finlandia Swedia Norwegia

STOK UTANG UNI EROPA

Tahun 1998 - 2011

GEO-EKONOMI

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*)2017*)


PERTUMB PDB: NEGARA MAJU & BERKEMBANG

Thn 1990-2011, 2012-17 (proyeksi IMF)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*)2017*)

Afrika Asia CIS ETT Timteng

PERTUMBUHAN PDB: NEGARA BERKEMBANG

Thn 1990-2011, 2012-17 (proyeksi IMF)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

(

%

p

e

r

u

b

a

h

a

n

P

D

B

,

y

-

o

-

y

)

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Brasil Rusia India Cina

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: BRIC

Thn 1980 - 2011

100

180

260

340

420

500

F

D

I

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

,

n

e

t

o

)

-300

-180

-60

60

180

300

P

o

r

t

f

o

l

i

o

,

L

a

i

n

n

y

a

,

O

f

f

i

c

i

a

l

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

)

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

FDI Portfolio Lainnya Official

ARUS MODAL KE EMERGING ECONOMIES

Tahun 1996-2011, 2012-2013 (Proyeksi)

25

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

P

D

B

N

o

m

i

n

a

l

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

2011 2012*) 2013*) 2014*) 2015*) 2016*) 2017*)

AS Jepang Inggris Jerman Perancis Itali

Kanada Brasil Cina India Rusia

PDB NOMINAL G-7 DAN BRIC

Tahun 2011 - 2017*)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

P

D

B

N

o

m

i

n

a

l

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)

2009 2011 2013*) 2015*) 2017*)

Asia Latin Timteng ETT CIS Afrika

PDB NOMINAL NEGARA BERKEMBANG

Tahun 2009 - 2017*)

Ngr Brkmbg (16,39%)

Ngr Maju (83,61%)

Tahun 1992

Ngr Brkmbg (36,39%)

Ngr Maju (63,61%)

Tahun 2011

PERANAN NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG

Tahun 1992 dan 2011

CIS (3,09%)Eropa Timur (9,65%)

Afrika (7,61%)

Amerika Latin (33,55%)

Asia (31,90%)Timur Tengah (14,19%)

Tahun 1992

CIS (9,62%)Eropa Timur (7,48%)

Afrika (4,84%)

Amerika Latin (22,07%)

Asia (45,17%)

Timur Tengah (10,83%)

Tahun 2011

PERANAN DALAM NEGARA BERKEMBANG

Tahun 1992 dan Tahun 2011

40 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO TAHUN 2011 (USD Miliar)

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARANo.150761449913974142921402913377126231185311142106421028699519354879383327838United States1

72985930499145203494271322571932164114541325119810831019953856China25867548950354849435643574572465643033981416047314433391543244706Japan33607331233073641332929052771273024282014188318922134218121602438Germany42778257126272845258622582140205817961457133913301458147114231573France5249321431622165013661089882664552506554644587844872840Brazil62431226721932670282724572299219818581604146914791504146213691231United Kingdom72199206121172318213018751789173815171230112511071210122612001267Italy818501487122316611300990764591430345307260196271405392Russia918271630126612631153909809689591510488476454424421376India101739157713381503142412791134992866735715725661617638614Canada11148712449921054946778732655539424377400412381426425Australia1214801392146016011444123811331046886689609582618601573622Spain131154103588310941035952849760700706710672566487468387Mexico14111610158349311049952845722644576505533462358532573Korea15

84670853951043236428625723519616016514095216227Indonesia16838781798875784678640611539439401386412403387418Netherlands17774731614730649529483392303232196266250269255244Turkey18661551509524451405385374335287263256274279272312Switzerland19597456377476385357316250215189183188161146165158Saudi Arabia20545469411492468404374365319254230250261258256280Sweden21515473475510460400378362312254233233255256250276Belgium22515470431529425342304253217198190171168172157157Poland23485417375454393340304260225192171168159151158160Norway244824193613513072422031681371161159610598106111Iran25466430378400393376365340311301294326299275299288Taiwan2644536830632426021318115212897269284284299293272Argentina27418380385416376325306292254208192193213214208235Austria28409363284274286261247219168111119133133134149144South Africa29346319264273247207176161143127116123123112151182Thailand3034228426031425822218114812411010310483737671United Arab Emirates31332312311344311274258245213174160160174174170184Denmark3232828523223521116114711995989810096109112119Colombia33316295329315230183144113839312311798918671Venezuela34299302323343305262240230195148131128138134133136Greece3528824720223119416314412511010193947972100101Malaysia36263237240273246208196189165136125122130130123128Finland372602271861901781461251139691889485859995Singapore38248216173179173155123997670717875828578Chile39244229169207166145112886859444636333546Nigeria40

Sumber: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012.

27

120 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO PER KAPITA TAHUN 2011(USD)

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARA1158091055091047261189091070999019981163745656470550794458114659249280456434422749743Luxembourg1

98144749015954579409648725838350109417043278828374270342879721139184012132417749Qatar297607850557738694816833367278565646565384917642207378203739135554340363585136460Norway383073699736544269049599995432151889508184574639506364893573938399393043845044184Switzerland466371560984524948819446553731835635323402693821422193172073021646202252289023088Australia563626544115127065992574685248643989393053501732791326213468927321258982953629059UEA659709563695644962800571715055447617453403949532390300003003432736327963230935124Denmark757638498454401853101509944429241369405933559028446258482815429474291022896731599Sweden850496462833971945171433063930235205311042740223467231002365321775204752134520757Canada950216470174830053199478394149839190375073324127206249912425026056256702479126922Netherlands1049688453064599149915452463933937143357203134125769238542404526598267802611429497Austria1149271438653656738087366953176328498264192302922028210012279121073214752528425074Singapore1248783441364484951297465023944437316361523152926057240142357625234251852392825014Finland1348328468114546146901464674475042629404013832536950360653525233502318583054129077United States1448289464455037259533596175263649133461634001431554273872579225832238352222220639Ireland1546989435934413947790434863808636187348353015524607226712279124950251112458927199Belgium1645870428633932137865340383407735781364443371831241327113730435014309813430737425Japan1744111405134039344334404633527533603330902942924414228632302025995265902632329767Germany1844007409394204845789418503677235107340202987724414226012260024930252302448727153France1943723334813041042824337333190727015215861878715759151081701313358114251374118525Kuwait2043088388923785553253651825437654420451363775130902275663062131300299892722627087Iceland2138811364423548943511463574054538159367273119127043248432511025630250052346821169UK2238534298522642336223314042994925754218851875716977168281847714514130851722517370Brunei2336267341543525138883360263190930607300202647221573197451945121258215482109722283Italy2435973320612714130948311372575426937244042007015382134051373615051146111786518138New Zealand2534259317862991730926298472750925999244032344324351247532519924600253532705624583Hong Kong2632351295392702428581242062153620284195591868218100200512076418803190491926419155Israel2732077302083178235113321682808126102245012108216670149651445615487151371447715763Spain2828670273872865831686280392430622742213601822714676136151318613997138301305613922Cyprus2926735269722890730780274782365821737208611769313446119501166212639123231231212677Greece3024900234072456927235235951939117857169561462111621102921009111252110041030810650Slovenia3123572198671674321804153691378411806960185298070794080976556639673707205Oman322291819420185632841624171211561832415601137261212711720118901002696601024210167Bahrain33224242054016959190282159019676175511502913451120941065511347990677241158212587Korea3422359215382208423839218961910918252177231558912852117421153912473121701150212066Portugal3522354225562264924482249882421523714221242197122311212012089420203182471720615163Bahamas36211961654114129184711543414784136501111297458773872592048055747486558478Saudi Arabia37211371945619503208401836615719148311407512860108679971102711047610263984710016Malta38204361881418739217151754414474127261116293397684627057216042620157686287Czech3920083185731633117372171221645116023149861374813370131081464113535125461374013376Taiwan40

28

120 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO PER KAPITA TAHUN 2011 (LANJUTAN)(USD)

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARA1764416050161221750013913103678902784561974562392637913801415039723934Slovak4117060158271500821298166071415212346102908816706269676461n/an/an/an/aTrinidad4216568141381434317811163841249310319890172575376456341364147402135973317Estonia43155541534815935157781632015316142951280411946115031147211514112701077195949131Barbados441450010961951314861104378201722147392747205517101321847545702398Guinea45144031264010203107061041794107564617447834421456150414949544957385310Chile4614182134491405015694133861123110082923976895974519249114371480444005203Croatia47140501284512624153541352111167109251007582376525516945384706466545184472Hungary48138661174291179108704359105287416136534050631769147293775473617039Uruguay49136181068111433147311255986536910592247813933347732713038278125582301Latvia50134691230811298138891115689547963662556735183497844314339444940654058Poland51132621111611103141601164889107644659454134104351032863113n/an/an/aLithuania521299310408861711704915369625348412029842380210617751334183827402647Russia53127891108984728704728158694787365430852867319037623478507753215207Brazil5412766129861382915636151311349011995109821045110078989510212104381016897549343Antigua551272812216127471397313277123651074710168961210154987793979120904685497572St. Kitts5611204107279637110671221912263113041039385258432766375797747771672816583Seychelles5711167900971198571662652623753286320621657149212301132148014591359Kazakhstan5810959916277088270670555414782404834392656741879177970847883817862Argentina5910630100991149811236836567965453435432853729503348454132392937683160Venezuela6010518882074219994807568296354539546653894381542043965390847595214Gabon611036310017852810272924576267040579145353519300241473943430842784167Turkey62101469219797910051966790338163737468656991711868595862511849824181Mexico6310085873772528390712260665421481643524078384639923455323246014752Malaysia64

9862950189837900666659695824580554215237489048454997506747674052Lebanon659537814364057589700464735985586147803640365334413615345433743285Botswana668875766776499497791756874589350327422061181816721586186815571551Romania67887479396359658259245174468044504284421341994185n/an/an/an/aCosta Rica688742757569197598616053745219534647644058391339913846385039993950Mauritius698514753969746759592152184791447041504010393139424074395437093486Panama70845781927425683357585209448437903322287223022713265032642751n/aSuriname718078727157465606591055115267472336562445263329863029310034953439South Africa727850753574578003741768436801590558475337518151814797443138723596Grenada737379730071287173695062825637535348994558448948994866467443244321St. Lucia7473176383646471005759432336283337275320861893n/an/an/an/an/aMontenegro757308637464336855552043293753326226542043175815881647162313011233Bulgaria767114625951495293479437023418280422632367240724802429277129063135Colombia7771065847493352133759241515381019864749693648572541506409Azerbaijan786829680269016475590354615090516247904593464545554492434741083964Dominica796420563849274857431234292925246520421767178715101666158317451770Iran80

29

120 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO PER KAPITA TAHUN 2011 (LANJUTAN)(USD)

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARA 6280616561496401627556245098485245004335405737403642349232313085St. Vincent815904520743624427380033402917260123252184210821172078232524602361Peru825892648561706110505843603379371633942952278029672843265925542108Maldives835862524442474276434540053709344126081811194021401874194121442126Namibia845845582451806386467238053098231818101474124210431212151513971430Belarus8557254892549764855304395733683154261720211524115214442039n/an/aSerbia865545522748154777437938373713243123152604292728712642256424552211Dominican875510112399912139431104891618053574546493935624571506860582972527228Libya885503457339544996396735173142263721281807176917951630163316591643Algeria8954174423374034042645206417261486127011321038946861817771699China905395499241514300391832962825260322612020185419831989182024813027Thailand9153144329408246713443244616991130820689556585406442536470Angola925267484344255025474444234181381735433684352334973461346833413002Jamaica935162455245484828399832192944271723531861170517861837179618832233Macedonia94507840723776408450064191341828712347181514691082845638576566Turkmenistan9546544272437647413902316427932603219717531523146915481445n/an/aBosnia964618432639873757299026892300213319491880180317421720171216081581Jordan974428392035703775321629922689241121291879164112751343187819411787Ecuador984317419941714346380733943218314027902374228622452426233622512366Tunisia994266422641074244407840473821373836113517338833313013288828452889Belize1004244356532624096391735993519329128202268206421182375212527572778Fiji1014221372132693236319729802833249721781940182919262007221423062347Tonga102415429992530298518211116861625481471471410307n/an/an/aTimor-Leste1034020370538094087338428602614235118471434132311901107891711984Albania1043855361835483705350032523017280826932578250623992293222420771937El Salvador1053688323825373026230518111511140611731144140115421606177019921999Paraguay1063661324231753147271122882036196717601366126012221397126012121271Cape Verde1073631311325613264237022451820143011079829351109834711871981Congo108362429802550389930712305183013681048879781636637838995876Ukraine10935122981229922091897162312911177109192276780068747310831154Indonesia1103478262422152947201716101225917n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aIraq11134723414315127782888253622762123186215081277122612801412n/an/aSamoa1123384313125002432255923502245204916431081120614041428147216111555Swaziland1133333293126342507227719151729165515881544151515121417145915141440Guyana11432102623245529372326176514841188919777728686627804784652Georgia115320228622495277024552027208220821824n/an/an/an/an/an/an/aTuvalu1163183287526902860255523202141193318131762162515301588171116341480Guatemala117312622671688210816201327991790641568523476448483514594Mongolia1183105283625232594235920021840174015341310132114251436144115381512Vanuatu1193084285128852851243921521973190816881385130813011407144112241365Morocco120

Sumber: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012

30

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40

1,45

U

S

D

/

E

u

r

o

1,50

1,54

1,57

1,61

1,64

1,68

U

S

D

/

G

B

P


Euro (Eropa) Poundsterling (UK)

NILAI TUKAR: EURO DAN POUNDSTERLING


75

79

83

87

91

95

Y

e

n

/

U

S

D

6,20

6,25

6,30

6,35

6,40

6,45

Y

u

a

n

/

U

S

D


Yen Yuan

NILAI TUKAR: YEN DAN YUAN


NILAI TUKAR MATA UANG (AKHIR PERIODE)April 2012 - Maret 2013

MarFebJan'13DesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiApr94,292,191,186,582,679,977,978,478,279,578,279,9Jepang (Y/USD)1,521,521,581,631,601,611,621,591,571,571,541,60UK (USD/GBP)1,281,311,361,321,301,301,291,261,231,261,241,33Uni Eropa (USD/Euro)6,216,226,226,236,236,246,296,356,366,366,376,28China (Yuan/USD)54,354,453,255,054,553,852,955,555,755,656,452,7India (Rupee/USD)

111110831089106410831091111311341131114411811132Korea (Won/USD)29,829,629,629,029,129,229,329,930,029,829,929,1Taiwan (NTD/USD)1,241,241,241,221,221,221,231,251,241,271,291,24Singapura (SGD/USD)7,767,767,767,757,757,757,757,767,757,767,767,76Hong Kong (HKD/USD)29,329,829,830,630,730,730,831,331,531,731,930,7Thailand (Bath/USD)3,093,093,113,063,043,053,063,123,133,173,183,03Malaysia (Ringgit/USD)40,840,740,741,040,841,141,742,141,842,143,742,2Filipina (Peso/USD)

971996679698967096059615958895609485948095659190Indonesia (Rp/USD)Sumber: Bloomberg, BI (untuk Rupiah)

31

29,0

29,6

30,2

30,8

31,4

32,0

B

a

t

h

/

U

S

D

41

41

42

43

43

44

P

e

s

o

/

U

S

D


Bath (Thai) Peso (Filipina)

NILAI TUKAR: BATH DAN PESO


2,95

3,00

3,05

3,10

3,15

3,20

R

i

n

g

g

i

t

/

U

S

D

1,17

1,20

1,23

1,26

1,29

1,32

S

G

D

/

U

S

D


Ringgit (Malaysia) Dolar Singapura

NILAI TUKAR: RINGGIT DAN DOLAR S'PURA


8400

8660

8920

9180

9440

9700

R

u

p

i

a

h

/

U

S

D

1040

1072

1104

1136

1168

1200

W

o

n

/

U

S

D


Rupiah(Indonesia) Won (Korea)

NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN WON


44,0

46,8

49,6

52,4

55,2

58,0

R

u

p

e

e

/

U

S

D

28,5

28,9

29,3

29,7

30,1

30,5

N

T

D

/

U

S

D


Rupee (India) Taiwan Dolar

NILAI TUKAR RUPEE DAN DOLAR TAIWAN


32

CADANGAN DEVISA (USD MILIAR)Maret 2012 - Februari 2013

FebJan'13DesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprMar1258,81267,31268,11270,81274,21277,01273,21272,81270,51277,71289,51288,7Jepang

3311,63297,73287,43285,13272,93240,03240,03206,13298,93305,0Cina526,2532,2537,6528,2526,8529,9514,9510,5514,3510,4524,4513,5Rusia373,7377,8378,6378,6377,8378,7377,2376,2373,9372,4374,3365,2Brasil290,6295,2296,6294,5294,3294,8288,9288,7290,0285,9293,2294,4India327,4328,9327,0326,1323,5322,0316,9314,4312,4310,9316,8316,0Korea Selatan404,1406,6403,2401,0399,2398,0394,2391,1391,2389,3395,1393,9Taiwan304,8304,7317,3305,2301,7301,2298,2296,3295,0291,9295,6294,6Hong Kong259,1258,8259,3255,8254,2252,1246,2244,1243,3237,7246,1243,6Singapura 179,3181,6181,6181,6181,4183,6179,2175,7174,7171,7179,0179,2Thailand105,2108,8112,8111,3110,3110,2109,0106,6106,5111,5116,4110,5Indonesia140,3140,2139,7139,1138,3137,5134,9134,5134,2136,0135,9135,7Malaysia

83,885,884,284,182,182,080,879,376,376,076,076,5Filipina44,948,349,148,251,247,045,449,348,151,849,851,9Australia

Sumber: Bank Sentral/Otoritas Moneter Negara Terkait

200

250

300

350

400

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)


Korsel

HongKong

Brasil

Singapura

Taiwan

CADEV: NGR INDUSTRI ASIA DAN BRASIL


20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

(

U

S

D

M

i

l

i

a

r

)


Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Filipina

Australia

CADEV: ASIA TENGGARA DAN AUSTRALIA


LONG TERM BOND YIELD DAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP: ASIA DAN EROPA

33

10

15

20

25

30

p

e

r

s

e

n

(

%

)


LONG TERM BOND YIELD: YUNANI


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

p

e

r

s

e

n

(

%

)


EA(16)

Jerman

Perancis

Inggris

Itali

Spanyol

Portugal

Irlandia

LONG TERM BOND YIELD: EROPA


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

p

e

r

s

e

n

(

%

)


Cina Malaysia Siingapura Taiwan India

Filipina Indonesia Vietnam Korea

LONG TERM BOND YIELD: ASIA


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

b

p

s


Cina

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia

Filipina

India

Korea

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP: ASIA


PASAR DAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA

PERKEMBANGAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH20132012Realisasi Harga Minyak

FebJanDesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprMarMentah (USD/barel)95,394,788,286,789,594,594,187,982,494,7103,3106,2 WTI

111,1107,6105,7107,1108,7111,0108,499,294,2107,1117,3122,3 Dubai116,5113,0109,7109,7112,0113,4113,3103,195,6110,5120,5124,9 Brent107,6105,1101,2101,2103,4106,3105,396,890,7104,1113,7117,8 Rata2 (WTI, Dubai, Brent)114,9111,1106,9106,7109,9111,0111,7102,999,1113,8124,6128,1 ICP

Sumber: Bank Dunia, IMF, Pertamina/ESDMKRONOLOGI PROYEKSI HARGA MINYAK MENTAH

20132012MarFebJanDesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprProyeksi Bulan

Perkiraan Harga WTI (USD/barel)91,992,889,588,488,392,692,690,388,597,0103,8105,8 Keseluruhan Thn 201392,292,291,0 Keseluruhan Thn 2014

Perkiraan Harga Brent (USD/barel)108,3109,3105,2103,8103,4 Keseluruhan Thn 2013100,8100,899,3 Keseluruhan Thn 2014

Sumber: EIA, US Dept. of Energy, sampai dengan 12 Maret 2013

80

90

100

110

120

130

U

S

D

/

b

a

r

e

l


Rata2 Brent Dubai WTI ICP

HARGA MINYAK MENTAH


84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

W

T

I

(

U

S

D

/

b

a

r

e

l

)

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

B

r

e

n

t

(

U

S

D

/

b

a

r

e

l

)

03-Sep 05-Oct 08-Nov 12-Dec 17-Jan 20-Feb 26-Mar

WTI Brent

HARGA SPOT MINYAK MENTAH WTI DAN BRENT

3 September 2012 - 2 April 2013

PRODUKSI, KONSUMSI, DAN INVENTORI MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA(Juta Barel per Hari)

2014201320122011201420132012Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1

PRODUKSI24,4323,5522,5721,6224,7624,4124,2924,2824,2923,6323,4622,8223,0022,3022,4222,58 OECD12,5911,9411,1010,1412,9112,5812,5012,3712,3312,0111,8011,6111,6711,0010,9010,85 U.S. (50 States)

4,384,093,863,604,534,364,294,334,254,114,004,003,963,783,793,89 Canada2,872,932,942,962,832,862,882,902,912,922,932,952,922,942,952,94 Mexico3,023,043,103,342,923,023,043,103,243,003,162,762,822,973,233,36 North Sea1,581,561,581,571,571,601,581,571,561,591,571,521,631,611,541,54 Other OECD

67,3266,2866,4665,5967,6167,6967,3266,6666,5966,6166,4265,5066,1466,7766,5366,40 Non-OECD36,5136,0336,4035,1636,5836,3536,5636,5636,3136,1535,9835,6935,8336,5736,6836,52 OPEC30,5130,2930,8929,8230,4830,3230,5930,6530,5030,3930,2530,0130,2731,0531,1831,06 Crude Oil Portion

6,005,755,515,336,106,035,975,915,825,765,735,685,565,525,505,45 Other Liquids13,3913,3313,4113,3113,4513,4013,3513,3413,3413,1013,4213,4613,5513,3413,3413,41 Former Soviet Union

4,564,524,404,334,584,574,574,544,554,554,534,474,494,404,354,36 China12,8612,3912,2512,8013,0113,3612,8412,2112,3812,8112,5011,8912,2712,4612,1512,12 Other Non-OECD 91,7589,8389,0387,2192,3792,1091,6190,9390,8890,2489,8888,3289,1489,0788,9588,98 Total Produksi Dunia55,2453,8052,6352,0655,7955,7555,0454,3754,5754,0953,9052,6453,3152,5052,2652,46 Non-OPEC Production

KONSUMSI45,5645,6545,9546,4645,8545,4344,8646,1146,0745,6045,0345,8946,1245,8645,5246,29 OECD18,6618,5818,5618,9518,5818,7418,6918,6118,5918,7218,6618,3418,4918,6718,6518,42 U.S. (50 States)

0,350,330,320,300,350,350,350,350,330,330,330,330,320,320,320,32 U.S. Territories2,352,342,312,292,372,392,282,352,372,392,282,312,302,382,322,24 Canada

13,3513,5013,7514,2913,4613,5013,0713,3613,6413,6713,2413,4613,7313,7913,7513,74 Europe4,524,624,724,474,654,244,215,004,754,344,305,114,834,484,305,29 Japan6,336,276,296,166,436,206,266,446,386,156,216,346,456,236,196,29 Other OECD

45,9744,4843,1841,8645,9446,7646,3644,8344,7345,0144,5243,6843,7543,2443,2042,54 Non-OECD5,114,944,784,635,235,244,955,035,055,064,784,864,864,874,704,67 Former Soviet Union0,720,710,700,700,730,730,710,700,720,720,700,700,720,720,700,69 Europe

11,1910,6810,239,8511,1011,4111,4210,8310,8810,6710,5810,6210,599,9310,0910,32 China10,8610,6210,4610,2310,9210,6111,0510,8610,6810,3810,8010,6110,5010,2310,6810,43 Other Asia18,0917,5317,0116,4417,9618,7718,2217,4017,4018,1817,6616,8917,0917,4917,0416,43 Other Non-OECD 91,5390,1389,1388,3191,7992,1991,2290,9490,8090,6289,5589,5789,8789,1088,7288,83 Total Konsumsi Dunia

INVENTORI (Net Withdrawals)0,010,058-0,150,130,43-0,11-0,29-0,010,45-0,12-0,350,250,13-0,11-0,33-0,29 U.S. (50 States)

-0,080,095-0,060,17-0,380,07-0,030,01-0,200,190,010,390,25-0,30-0,05-0,15 Other OECD-0,140,1510,310,80-0,630,13-0,060,01-0,330,310,010,610,350,440,150,29 Other Stock Draws and Balance -0,220,3040,101,10-0,580,09-0,390,01-0,080,38-0,321,250,730,03-0,23-0,15 Total Stock Draw

End-of-period Inventories (jt brl)1111111211001074110811291110109711101131111010961113111410971076 U.S. Commercial Inventory2655265126822674266626682652263626432659264926522692271526732648 OECD Commercial Inventory

Sumber: Diolah dari EIA, US Dept. of Energy, Maret 2013

36

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

dollars per barrel

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014

Historical spot priceSTEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending

March 7, 2013. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options

contracts.

World Liquid Fuels Supply and Demand Balance

million barrels per day

Forecast

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0Implied stock change and balance (right axis)

World supply (left axis)

World demand (left axis)


Annual Imported Crude Oil Price

dollars per barrel

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Nominal Price Real Price (Mar 2013 $)

Forecast

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013

Quarterly Imported Crude Oil Price

dollars per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1974Q1 1978Q1 1982Q1 1986Q1 1990Q1 1994Q1 1998Q1 2002Q1 2006Q1 2010Q1 2014Q1

Nominal Price Real Price (Mar 2013 $)

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013

Forecast

37

-0,6

-0,3

0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

2012 2013 2014

OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea

Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth



Forecast

World Liquid Fuels Consumption

million barrels per day (mmbd)

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)

Change in China consumption (right axis)

Change in other consumption (right axis)

Total world consumption (left axis)

annual change (mmbd)


-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

U

n

i

t

e

d

S

t

a

t

e

s

C

a

n

a

d

a

C

h

i

n

a

B

r

a

z

i

l

C

o

l

o

m

b

i

a

R

u

s

s

i

a

V

i

e

t

n

a

m

K

a

z

a

k

h

s

t

a

n

M

a

l

a

y

s

i

a

O

t

h

e

r

N

o

r

t

h

S

e

a

A

u

s

t

r

a

l

i

a

O

m

a

n

G

a

b

o

n

I

n

d

i

a

E

g

y

p

t

S

u

d

a

n

A

z

e

r

b

a

i

j

a

n

U

n

i

t

e

d

K

i

n

g

d

o

m

S

y

r

i

a

N

o

r

w

a

y

M

e

x

i

c

o

2014

2013

2012

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth



OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Note: Shaded area represents 2002-2012 average (2.5 million barrels per day)

Forecast

PRODUKSI, KONSUMSI, DAN STOK MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA

38

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i


Produksi Konsumsi

PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI MINYAK MENTAH


34,0

34,7

35,4

36,1

36,8

37,5

O

P

E

C

(

j

u

t

a

b

a

r

e

l

/

h

a

r

i

)

50,5

51,1

51,7

52,3

52,9

53,5

N

o

n

-

O

P

E

C

(

j

u

t

a

b

a

r

e

l

/

h

a

r

i

)


OPEC Non-OPEC

PRODUKSI: OPEC DAN NON-OPEC


44,5

45,2

45,9

46,6

47,3

48,0

O

E

C

D

(

j

u

t

a

b

a

r

e

l

/

h

a

r

i

)

39,0

40,2

41,4

42,6

43,8

45,0

N

o

n

-

O

E

C

D

(

j

u

t

a

b

a

r

e

l

/

h

a

r

i

)


OECD Non-OECD

KONSUMSI: OECD DAN NON-OECD


1040

1060

1080

1100

1120

1140

A

S

(

j

u

t

a

b

a

r

e

l

)

2600

2628

2656

2684

2712

2740

O

E

C

D

L

a

i

n

n

y

a

(

j

u

t

a

b

a

r

e

l

)


AS OECD Lainnya

STOK KOMERSIAL AS DAN OECD LAINNYA


PRODUKSI DAN SPARE CAPACITY MINYAK MENTAH DAN BAHAN BAKAR CAIR OPEC

39

28,5

29,1

29,7

30,3

30,9

31,5

M

i

n

y

a

k

M

e

n

t

a

h

(

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i

)

5,20

5,30

5,40

5,50

5,60

5,70

B

h

n

B

k

r

C

a

i

r

(

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i

)


Minyak Mentah Bahan Bakar Cair

PROD. MINYAK DAN BHN BKR CAIR OPEC


8,0

8,4

8,8

9,2

9,6

10,0

A

r

a

b

S

a

u

d

i

(

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i

)

2,60

2,84

3,08

3,32

3,56

3,80

I

r

a

n

(

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i

)


Arab Saudi Iran

PROD. MINYAK ARAB SAUDI DAN IRAN


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

M

i

n

y

a

k

M

e

n

t

a

h

(

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i

)


Kuwait Vanezuela Nigeria UEA Angola

Libya Iraq Algeria Qatar Ecuador

PROD. MINYAK ANGGOTA OPEC LAINNYA


0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

(

J

u

t

a

B

a

r

e

l

/

H

a

r

i

)

Jul Jan'09 Jul Jan'10 Jul Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13

SPARE CAPACITY MINYAK MENTAH OPEC

perkembangan ekonomi 5 april 2013

Documents