weather briefing saturday, 17 august 2013
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Weather Briefing Saturday, 17 August 2013. Henry Fuelberg Nick Heath Sean Freeman & SEAC4RS MET Team. Cooler, drier air being advected into our region behind last night’s shortwave. Ending at 6:45 AM CDT. Surface Analysis: 1 PM CDT Today. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Weather BriefingSaturday, 17 August 2013
Henry FuelbergNick Heath
Sean Freeman &SEAC4RS MET Team
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Cooler, drier air being advected into our region behind last night’s shortwave
Ending at 6:45 AM CDT
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Surface Analysis: 1 PM CDT Today
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Update on tropical development – precipitable water
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Disturbance in the Gulf
L
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Models are in better agreement on landfall over N. Mexico and S. Texas. Locally, this will impact our rain chances Monday and Tuesday
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Convectively influenced air being pumped by tropical disturbance
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500 mb Flow: Sunday - Wednesday
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GFS Tropopause pressure at 1PM CDT Monday
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Southeast Chemistry
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2 m Temperature anomalies valid 7 PM CDT last night – cold an anomalous pattern over eastern CONUS
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Monday maximum temperatures
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Scattered convection over SE on Monday as tropical moisture lingers around
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Forecasted Max Temperatures
Wednesday Friday
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Southeast Chemistry
• Troughing, scattered convection, and cloud cover will keep temps cooler on Monday
• East Coast trough weakens by Wednesday, leading to higher surface temperatures.
• Cannot forecast convection that far an advance…however, synoptic conditions indicate a little more active than climo based on high precipitable water values
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NAM and Fires
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Precip: Sunday - Wednesday
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200 mb Streamlines: 1 PM CDT Monday
NCAR GFS
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Dreamland Friday 500 mb
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Dreamland Friday max temp
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Dreamland Friday precip
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TO and Landing for Monday
• NE winds ~15 kt in the morning, veering SE in the afternoon
• Good chance (30-40%) of precip in the morning, increasing more in the afternoon
• Depends on the track/timing of the tropical wave
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