global opportunities for engineers and s & t professionals by dr t.h. chowdary * director,...

Global Opportunities for Engineers and S & T

Professionals

By

Dr T.H. Chowdary* Director, Center for Telecom Management & Studies

* Chairman, Pragna Bharati (Intellect India), AP* Former Information Technology Adviser, Government of A.P

Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd., BombayT: +91 (40) 2784-6137/6667-1191(O) F: +91 (40) 2789-6103/6667-1111 (O)

thc@satyam.comTalk @ Nalanda:Vijayawada

on 12 Sept 2008

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 2

Taking offWorld GDP per Person, 1000=100______________________________________ 3500

______________________________________ 3000

______________________________________ 2500

______________________________________ 2000

______________________________________ 1500

______________________________________ 1000

______________________________________ 500

______________________________________ 01000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Sources: Angus Maddison; J.P. Morgan

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 3

World Population and the Poor

Year Population % of the Poor1820 1.1 billion 85%1980 5 billion 30%2000 6 billion 20%2007 6.5 billion 18%

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 4

Period GDP POP PCI YRS

1951 to 2000

3.5 2.8 0.7 70

2004-07

9.0 1.8 7.2 10

Growth of GDP; Population;

Per Capita Income (PCI) &

Years for doubling PCI

•Lesson from China: Control population during period of growth [JRD’s advice to Nehru in 1950s dismissed.]

•BPL ratio is the index: in India it came down from 70% in the 1950s to

about 30% now [BPL ratio in A P is 85% according to white ration cards & increasing.]

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 5

Agri Industry Service

Developed <5% 25 70

Developing 30 to 40 20 to 25 35 to 50

India 21 24 55

Content of GDP (Figs. in %)

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 6

The Earth is Flat –Thomas Friedman

• 2.5 bln, educated, low wage people added to work in the global economy after the Collapse of the Berlin wall ( 9-11-1989) and the USSR’s empire (1991)

• Service occupations opened to competition by emergence of digital economy and the global spread of broad-band

• Out-sourcing; Off-shoring; Not only software, BPO but also KPO!

• Out-ward looking international economic policy-relations with trade/market partners

• Bold and sustained political support for education; S&T & Entrepreneurship

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 7

Science & Engineering Education

• India has 12.1 mln science grads & diploma holders ( 14% in A P highest in India; 2nd Tamilnadu; 3rd Maharastra)

• 10 mln age group ( 17 to 22) in the Universities• Population with 10th/12 class study

1991 200469.7 mln (8.2%) 246.9mln (23%)

• Graduates & above1991 2004

20.5 mln (2.4%) 48.7 mln (4.5%)• About 24% of graduates are in sciences• Of about 10 mln P.Gs in 2004 - 20% are in

sciences

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 8

Engineering & Business Professionals / year

Engineers* MBAs MCAs

450,000 80,000 60,000

* About 100,000 are ICT-related

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 9

How Equipped is India for Higher Education

Country Population

(million)

No of Uni-versities

To be on par with the country of comparison; Varsities India needs to have

Korea 45 120 3000 Israel 6 10 1700 Lesotho 2 2 1000

UK 50 170 3400

USA 280 1700 6100

India 1000 310 ---- Australia 18 39 2200 China 1200 1000 850

*Suggest: Begin having a University for each District* Every Private Engineering College should be required to grow into a University within 8 years of wind up.•Corporates to found.fund ‘Varsities’.•In India we have 8.8 mln. or 5% of the young in the age group 18 to 23 yrs. in Universities

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 10

S &T Personnel(per 1000 persons)

Country Scientists Skilled Personnel Japan 110 7.1

Israel 76 5.9

USA 55 4

Korea 45.9 2.9

Brazil 25.9 0.2

China 8.1 0.6

India 3.6 0.3

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 11

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

01980 1990 2000

Number of Research Papers Published

India China South Korea Israel Brazil

Years

No.

of

Pap

ers

Sou

rce:

Bus

ines

s W

orld

, 30

Jan

2006

Quality of Education (1)

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 121975 1975 1999

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

500

0

Number of PHD Degrees in Engineering

India China South Korea Japan Taiwan

Sou

rce:

Bus

ines

s W

orld

, 30

Jan

2006

Years

No.

of

Deg

ree s

Quality of Education (2)

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 13

Knowledge Production- China

Total Exp/student on Higher education Ex R&D on PPP basis

USA DK Aus UK Fra FRG Spain Mexico

21 11 9 8 7.5 7.0 6.8 5

Doctorates awarded by China

1990 1995 2000 2002 2003

2 4.5 11.5 15 18

Source: Economist, Sept 10, 2005

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 14

Brain Gain in Developed Countries

Brain Gain: Stock of highly skilled immigrants (mln)

US CN Aus UK FRG FRN Spain S’land Holland

8.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.25 0.2

Foreign Students as % in

US UK FRG Aus Frn Jap Blgm Italy

Spain S’land Other OECD

30 11.5 11.5 10 9 4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 10Source: Economist, Sept 10, 2005

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 15

College Grads ( Professions) Leaving Country (%)

Italy France UK Spain FRG India

2.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 (2 to 5 )

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 16

Decline in the USAOur Opportunity (1/3)

• US 18 to 24 Y olds receiving science degrees has fallen to 17th position in the world from 3rd, three decades ago.

• World-wide Bachelor degrees in Science & Engineering 2.8 mln in Y 2003

Asia EU USA 2.1 mln 830K 400K

• Asian Universities produce 8 times more Engineers than the USA

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 17

Decline in the USAOur Opportunity (2/3)

• S&E degrees (out of all Bachelor degrees)

China Korea Taiwan USA

60% 33% 41% 31%

• Engineering Bachelors graduating every year

USA Russia China India

5% 25% 46% 4%

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 18

Decline in the USAOur Opportunity (3/3)

• Foreign born S&E graduates in the US (Brain gain)

S&E Bachelors Masters Ph.Ds

1999 11% 19% 24%

2000 17% 29% 38%

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 19

Indian Talent Works for Others

• GE- largest R&D center outside USA in Bangalore 2300 – double that in Shanghai – $ 80 mln Bangalore center – Filed for 260 patents (37 appvd.)

• Motorola: 1700 employees– 40% of software in its mobiles from India– The Internet Browser and multimedia messge system

conceived & developed for 3G,GSM, engineered– Global automakers ( 3 to 5)% on R&D

• India: 150K computer graduates• HUWAI & ZTE….

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 20

Indian Software Industry Exports ( $ mln )

1,124 1,755 2,700 3,9005,700

8,00010,000

12,00016,000

38 bln

21,000

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2008

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 21

Employment in Indian IT sector*,’000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 '01 '02 '03+ '04+ '06+

Call-centers (ITES) Software Multinational operations

(* Years ending March; + Estimate@ break-up: NA)

20 mln 2.5 mln

2008

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 22

Share of India in GlobalBPO & KPO Markets

Year 2003-’04 2010-’11 BPO 36% 55%

KPO 56% 71% Leaders:

Eng. Design Basic Data Biotech & Search Pharma

Integration &Mgment

400m $ 300m $ 280Education coming up

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 23

Foreign Companies Engaging Indian intellect

• GE – Largest R&D center outside USA is in India in Bangalore with 2300 researchers, double that in Shanghai

• GE put in $ 80 mln in the Bangalore R&D facility

• GE’s Bangalore R&D field for 260 patents in the USA (37 already approved)

• Boeing USA is outsourcing Aircraft design to Russia ( $ 120/ Hr)

• Russians are outsourcing parts of the design to HAL (BG) at $ 30/Hr

• Gorbachev went to USA to recommend Moscow as Bangalore’s rival!

• An Indian retained does the work of 2 or 3 Europeans;

does not take 6 weeks of holidays & costs one-fourth

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 24

Some Foreign Companies’ Employees in India

GE Caps GE Dev IBM Oracle EDS Texas

16,000 1,800 10,000 6000 3,500 900

Intel JP Morgan

HUWAI Siemens Motorola

1,700 1,200 1,500 2000 1,500

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 25

A New Business: Education

NIIT trains 45,000 students/year• Has tie-up with 35 Universities in China

• Entered China in 1997, has 10 training centers in 25 provinces

• Offers courses in Arabic, Spanish, Russian, Chinese, French and English

• Took loan from World Bank and gives education loans & scholarships

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 26

E-tutors

• Kochi tutors teach 20,000 US Students in Maths and Science online ( audio, video interactive)

• IIT Chennai students help students in Singapore, grades 6 to 12 on their Maths homework

– Teachers develop lesson plans to teach Maths

– Company is Heymath.com

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 27

Satyam/ Byrraju – GramIT; work to villages

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 28

Work taken to Villages: GramIT

• While US, EU, Oceania outsource to Hyderabad, Hyderabad out-sources to villages.

• Satyam Computers & Byraju Foundation• 200 Resident village graduates ( BA, B.Com,

B.Sc) trained in Ameringlish; imparted computer & Internet skills

• Satyam (Hyderabad HQ) outsourced its own internal work (pay-roll, accounting; travel; training; MIS

• Satisfied,work from abroad moved to villages

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 29

Work taken to Villages: GramIT (2)

• Broad-band telecom (optical fiber) 512 kbps extended from point of presence (POP) to work-site by PMP wireless

• Called Gram ITs, these offer transaction processing services (accounting, bulk mlng; records digitisation, reminder and follow-up and travel support).

• A whole Gram IT can be dedicated to a customer (like twinning of cities across continents; city com@Gram.IT twinning)

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 30

Work taken to Villages: GramIT (3)

• Gram IT-team contributed part of profits for village development scheme designed by them – Independent and local initiative

• Rural Pressure group to demand and get quality infrastructure and services such as roads, retailing, education, health

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 31

Social Impact of Gram IT

• Reverse migration ( 5% within 6 months)

• Educated house-wives (lost resource) join work force (no travel)-20% now

• Un-married girls: better spouses

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 32

India’s English Speaking Advantage

This is an excerpt from an essay written by a candidate from Bihar in the UPSC (IAS) examination. We are informed that the candidate has passed the exam:

 The cow is a successful animal. Also he is 4 footed, and because he is female, he give milks, ( but will do so when he is got child). He is same like God, sacred to Hindus and useful to man. But he has got four legs together. Two are forward and two are afterwards. His whole body can be utilised for use. More so the milk. Milk comes from 4 taps attached to his basement. His motion is slow only because he is of lazy species. Also his other motion (gobar) is much useful to trees, plants and as well as for making flat cakes ( like pizza), in hand, and drying in the sun. His only attacking and defending organ is the horns, specially so when he is got child.

- (Contributed by Vipin Buckshey, New Delhi, H.T 31.1.04)

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 33

Improvements We Need (1/2)

• We need great teachers 70% of living Nobel Laureates are teaching in the top 50 US Universities

• Quality of education; learning; creativity; analytical & communication abilities

• Examination talent X Knowledge talent• Competition among colleges & universities• Private Universities – Government to back off• End the farce of “minority” colleges

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 34

Improvements We Need (2/2)

• Great companies, not MLAs, Real-estate men to found colleges & varsities

• Post graduation/ Research & work for a few years in the top six of the OECD countries

• Markets/Clients abroad• Wealth creation here & jobs for Indians• MIT graduates founded 4,000 companies, created 1.1mln jobs, generated sales of $232 bln

(Rs. 10,43,000 crores)

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 35

Foolish Questions

• Are we producing cyber-coolies

• West exploiting Indian talents & profiteering

• Digital Divide: Rich-poor gap between nations & within India

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 36

Bharat Mahan !!Indians in the US

• There are 3.22 Million Indians in America• 38% of Doctors in America are Indians.• 12% of Scientists in America are Indians.• 36% of NASA employees are Indians.• 34% of MICROSOFT employees are Indians.• 28% of IBM employees are Indians• 17% of INTEL employees are Indians.• 13% of XEROX employees are Indians.

THC_CTMS S394 Sep 2008 37

Dhanyawad:Thank You