India’s Economic Development – Challenges to the Young

By DR T.H. CHOWDARY

Director: Center for Telecom Management and StudiesFellow: Tata Consultancy Services

Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India )Former: Chairman & Managing Director

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited &Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh

T: +91(40) 6667-1191(O) 2784-6137& 2784-3121®F: +91 (40) 6667-1111

hanuman.chowdary@tcs.com

HYD: 23 Feb 2014

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3 categories of people

• Entitlement• Employment • Entrepreneurship

What do you want to be?

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All are born equal: But

• Nurture• Education• EffortMake persons unequal

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Which is the source of all wealth

• Nature• Sunlight• Ores, geysers, water• Rivers, forests, seas, mountains, deserts,

marshes and fawna

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How we convert natural resources into products/services

• Science& Technology• R&D & Inventions • Industries• Agriculture• Capital ( comes from savings)• Work ( labour, machines)

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1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2012

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World GDP per Person, 1000=100S & T for Wealth Creation

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World Population and the Poor

Year Population % of the Poor1820 1.1 billion 85%1980 5 billion 30%2000 6 billion 20%2007 6.5 bln 18%2012 70 bln 15%

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India’s Share of World’s Industrial Production

India Britain 1830 17.5 9.6 1900 1.7 18.6•Annual Revenue of Aurangzeb: $ 450 m

(France’s Louis XIV :$ 40m)•Pliny, Roman Historian called India

“The sink of the world’s gold”

INDIA WAS THE WEALTHIEST

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Time taken to double the per capita income (1)

Country UK USA Japan Indonesia S.Korea China

Years 58 47 33 17 13 10

Since 1780 1840 1880 1965 1970 1978

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Time taken to double the per capita income (2)

GDP Growth Population Time taken

3.5% 2.0% 50 Y

6.5% 1.8% 15 Y

10.0% 1.0% 7 Y

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Poverty came downCountry Indonesia Malaysia Thailand S/pore India

From % 58 37 49 24 75

(1972) (1973) (1962) (1972) (1951)

To % 17 14 26 10 30 (1982) (1987) (1986) (1982) (2002)

Life expectancy up from 56 to 71 during this period* UPA II puts the poor at 66% under Food Security Act & Programme

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India - Growth of GDP; Population; Per Capita Income (PCI) &

Years for doubling PCI

Period GDP POP PCI YRS1951 to 2000

3.5 2.8 0.7 70

2004-07 9.0 1.8 7.2 102013 4.8 1.8 3.0 25•Lesson from China: Control population during period of growth [JRD’s advice to Nehru in 1950s dismissed.]•BPL ratio is the index: in India it came down from 70% in the 1950s to about 30% now [BPL ratio in A P is 85% according to white ration cards & increasing.]

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Gross World Product: in $ Trillion

Year 2005 2010 2014

$T 32 40 60

Share of Services Sector

$18 $25 $40

% Traded 30% 40% 45%

* 2014-15 India’s trade ( Ex + Imp) will be 31% of GDP

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Jobs lost/created in the last 10 years in different sectors in India

• 2000-2012 jobs grew by a mere 2% p.a• Pop. growing @ 1.8% i.e adding about 20 mln • Job creation never> 10 mln• Unproductive spend GOI’s Interest Payments Rs.

3,64,244 cr• Welfare spend & subsidies Rs. 5,00,000 cr• Subsidies (Rs. 2,42,255 cr in 2013-14) (i/c Haj Rs. 1000 cr)• Give aways NREGA- Rs. 40,000 cr SHGTHC_CTMS

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Improper Spending• Farmers loans- 2008 Rs. 70,000 cr• Indira Awas• Old age pensions• Pregnant women nourishment• Fee Reimbursement producing “certified but not qualified”.

Engineers etc.• 10 lakh unemployed B.Techs in A.P alone• 85% (Rajiv’s) welfare becomes black money Rs. 4,00,000 cr p.a • Under spending :

Defence R&D• China : $148 1%• India : $38 2%

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India’s Share in the World Trade and Wealth

Year Wealth Trade

1701 22.6% 25%1947 NA 2.4%1990 NA 0.4%2003 1.5% 0.8%2005 1.6% 1.0%2014 3.5% 2.7%

INDIA WAS THE WEALTHIEST

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What we need to do

• Link up rivers & national water grids• National &Highways = Rs. 70,000 RKM• National Power Grid• 600 new towns/ cities• 100 ports & harbours• 200 airports• Solar Power Generation on all multi-storeyed buildings (

Germany, Israel)• Electric cars (Petrol/diesel stations become Battery

Replace Stations (Israel, Denmark…THC_CTMS

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What we need to do contd..

• NCC in all colleges• 2 Y service in Armed Forces Obligatory• Residential Universities• 5,000 PPP Hospitals• 1000 more Medical colleges• 500 more Nursing colleges

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Job Growth 2000-’122% per year

Sector Jobs in mln 2011-12

Share in Total Annual change

Agriculture 224 48 -0.001

Manufacturing 60 13 4

Construction 50 11 17

Trade, Hotel 53 11 4

Transport, storage coms.

23 5 6

Other services 53 11 4

All 468 100 2.2

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VRO, VRA applicants (A.P)9-02-14 written test

Jobs Exam

VRO 1,651 11,84,234

714/ for 1 job

VRA 4,305 88,609

20/ for 1 job

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Total 12.72 lakhs wrote

VRO jobs Applicants wrote

Karimnagar 83 81,825

Nalgonda 68 73,960

Mahboobnagar 103 71,302

Guntur 83 68,072

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Dhanyawad:Thank You

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