coronavirus impact on finnair/media/files/f/finnair-ir/... · 2020-02-07 · *pilot long-term...
TRANSCRIPT
• Finnair has cancelled approximately 200 flights between5 February and 29 March• All flights to China between 6 and 29 February• Guangzhou, Beijing Daxing and Nanjing cancelled also during
March
• Direct financial impact is relatively limited in Q1
• We are preparing for different scenarios as it is difficult to estimate the length of coronavirus impact
• One A350 delivery has been delayed from April to June
• We are committed to the Chinese market on a long-term basis– some tactical changes to flight frequencies may be done
Coronavirus impact on Finnair
2
Outlook and guidance
Guidance on 7 February 2020:We are currently seeing strong performance continuing in Europe. As stated earlier, the direct financial impact of coronavirus during Q1 2020 is relatively limited, even if the mainland China cancellations continued until end of Q1 2020.We currently forecast our capacity to increase by approximately 4 per cent in 2020. Due to the situation with coronavirus, we do not provide a full year revenue estimate at this time. The guidance will be updated in connection to Q1 2020 interim report.
3
2019:Volatile year endedwith a strong quarterQ4 2020 Topi Manner, Finnair
A volatile year for aviation
• Global uncertainties impacted aviation• Trade war• Brexit• Boeing MAX8 issue decreased capacity• Industrial action• Air space restrictions (Pakistan, Iran)
• Sustainability took center stage• Finnair continued strong growth
• ASK +11.3%• New long-haul destinations: Los Angeles, Daxing, Sapporo• Almost 1,000 new people joined Finnair• Strong focus on distribution and digital services
5
Full year 2019: costs excl. fuel increased in line with revenue
6
NPS = Net Promoter Score*New Customer satisfaction survey was launched in beginning of January 2019. In the new survey NPS is calculated based on responses from all customers starting from beginning of 2019, including Finnair Plus and non-members. In 2018, NPS was calculated based on responses from Finnair Plus members only and therefore these results are not comparable. In 2018, NPS was 47.**Finnair carried in total of 14.7 million passengers in 2019 and 13.3 million passenger in 2018.
Capacity
+11.3%Revenue
+9.2%
Comparable operating result
162.8 M€(218.4 M€)
NPS
38*
PLF
-0.1%-pointsOperating cost
+11.1%Passenger volume
+10.3%**
Operating cost(Excl. fuel)
+9.2%(In fuel combined effect of price
paid, currency and hedges totaled 42 million euros)
Strong Q4 ended the year
• Revenue increased by 13.4% (774.9 M€)
• Over 3.5 million passengers, up to 104 weekly flights to Asia
• Increased market share in Asia and in Europe
• New routes to Beijing Daxing and Sapporo in Japan
• Unit revenues increased in Europe
• Double digit growth in Asian capacity with flat unit revenuesdespite Hongkong unrest
• Global operating environment in cargo weak as expected
• Aurinkomatkat was again Finland’s largest tour operator, with increased market share
7
Q4: Strong revenue growth while costs in check
8
NPS = Net Promoter Score*Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4 2018.**New Customer satisfaction survey was launched in beginning of January 2019. In the new survey NPS is calculated based on responses from all customers starting from beginning of 2019, including Finnair Plus and non-members. In 2018, NPS was calculated based on responses from Finnair Plus members only and therefore these results are not comparable. In Q4 2018, NPS was 45.***Finnair carried in total of 3.5 million passengers in Q4/2019 and 3.2 million passenger in Q4/2018.
Capacity
+10.6%Revenue
+13.4%
Comparable operating result
31.2 M€(26.5 M€)*
NPS
41**
PLF
+2.1%-points
Operating cost
+12.4%Passenger volume
+11.0%***
Operating cost(Excl. fuel)
+10.9%(In fuel combined effect of price
paid, currency and hedges totaled 12 million euros)
Finnair market share and ASK development – Europe to Asia
Note: 2019/Q4 market shares are only including 2019/October and 2019/November
Finnair market share and ASK development –Helsinki to Europe (incl. domestic Finland)
9
Finnair market shares (rolling 12 months) have increased in both Asian and European traffic
Note: 2019/Q4 market shares are only including 2019/October and 2019/November
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2014
/Q4
2015
/Q1
2015
/Q2
2015
/Q3
2015
/Q4
2016
/Q1
2016
/Q2
2016
/Q3
2016
/Q4
2017
/Q1
2017
/Q2
2017
/Q3
2017
/Q4
2018
/Q1
2018
/Q2
2018
/Q3
2018
/Q4
2019
/Q1
2019
/Q2
2019
/Q3
2019
/Q4
ASK, MillionsFinnair market share [%]
Departure Periods
Finnair market share (rolling 12 months)
Finnair ASK (rolling 12 months)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2014
/Q4
2015
/Q1
2015
/Q2
2015
/Q3
2015
/Q4
2016
/Q1
2016
/Q2
2016
/Q3
2016
/Q4
2017
/Q1
2017
/Q2
2017
/Q3
2017
/Q4
2018
/Q1
2018
/Q2
2018
/Q3
2018
/Q4
2019
/Q1
2019
/Q2
2019
/Q3
2019
/Q4
ASK, MillionsFinnair market
share [%]
Departure Periods
Finnair market share (rolling 12 months)Finnair ASK (rolling 12 months)
Revenue by product
10
Passenger revenue driving the growth
53 45
531
Q4 2018
39
616
60
5757
Q4 2019
683775
13.4%
Passenger revenueAncillaryCargo Travel services
+16.0%+13.6%-4.6%+7.5%
• European traffic performed strongly, positive development also in North American routes.
• Hong Kong impact in revenue less than expected.
• Ancillary revenue per passenger grew to 12.72€ (12.42).
• Soft global cargo demand environment, especially in Asia, impacted cargo revenue.
• Decreased market supply of package holidays together with the growing customer demand positively affected travel services result.
We succeeded in increasing both passenger load factors and unit revenues across all market areas, especially in Europe and North America
11
*PLF=Passenger load factor
Total trafficTotal % Change
ASK (million) 11,587.4 10.6%
Revenue (Million) 615.9 16.0%
RASK (Cents/ASK) 5.32 4.8%
PLF % 79.0% 2.1pp
North AmericaTotal % Change
ASK (million) 1,012.0 32.8%
Revenue (Million) 42.3 38.5%
RASK (Cents/ASK) 4.18 4.3%
PLF % 79.9% 1.2pp
EuropeTotal % Change
ASK (million) 4,313.1 6.9%
Revenue (Million) 249.1 17.3%
RASK (Cents/ASK) 5.78 9.8%
PLF % 79.2% 3.4pp
DomesticTotal % Change
ASK (million) 520.0 0.3%
Revenue (Million) 52.8 8.6%
RASK (Cents/ASK) 10.16 8.2%
PLF % 67.4% 3.5pp
AsiaTotal % Change
ASK (million) 5,742.4 11.4%
Revenue (Million) 255.4 12.0%
RASK (Cents/ASK) 4.45 0.5%
PLF % 79.7% 0.8pp
• Increased competition on routes between China and Finland, and softened demand to Hong Kong weighted down Asia.
• Capacity additions to North Atlantic were well received.• Competitors’ capacity reductions and Finland’s Council of the EU
presidency had a beneficial effect on the European traffic.
Other revenue Q4/18 vs Q4/19
12
Q4 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in Europe
Passenger revenue Q4/18 vs Q4/19
Q4 2019
57.2
53.3
152.5
60.0
5.3
39.2
159.0
Travel services
Q4 2018 Ancillary
44.6
4.0
-2.8
57.3
Cargo
-2.8
+4.3%615.9
27.3
EuropeAsiaQ4 2018 North Atlantic Domestic
Unallo-cated
Q4 2019
11.8
4.9
530.9
36.8 4.2
+16.0%
CargoAncillary and retail revenue
Travel services
• Unit cost at constant currency excluding fuel increased by 1.3% (Q4/2019 vs Q4/2018)
• Capacity growth 10.6%• Operating costs 12.4%• OPEX excluding fuel 10.9%
Increasing unit cost puts focus on efficiency
13
OPEX, 759.2M€ in total +12.4% Comparable EBIT Q4/18 vs Q4/19
Combined effect of price paid, currency and hedges totaled approx. 12 million euros
OPEX = operating expenses.
22%
18%
16%
10%
12%
7%
6%4% 5%
Fuel
Staff
Passenger and handling services
Traffic charges
Depreciation and impairment
Aircraft materials and overhaul
Sales, marketing and distribution
Capacity rents
Property, IT and other expenses-3.6-4.3
Travel services4.0
Revenue
-1.2
Other operating income
-12.0
Fuel costs
Capacity rents
Aircraft materials
and overhaul
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Traffic charges
Sales, marketing
and distribution
costs
-12.0
Property, IT and other
expenses
-26.0
-17.1
Ancillarysales 5.3Passenger revenue 84.9
Passenger and
handling services
Depreciation and
impairment
Staff costs
26.5
Cargo -2.8
91.5
-3.2
-10.5
-1.4 31.2-7.6
+4.6M€
Fuel costs increased with volume growth and the USD effect
14
• Q4/18 hedging gain 27.7 M€• Q4/19 hedging gain 0.4 M€CO2 emissions trading fees:• Q4/18: 3.9 M€• Q4/19: 4.0 M€
Fuel costs Q4/19 vs. Q4/18 Fuel hedges 31 December 2019
Period Hedging ratio Average price of the hedged position
Q1 2020 69 % 686 USD/tons*Q2 2020 67 % 681 USD/tons*Q3 2020 57 % 665 USD/tons*Q4 2020 46 % 640 USD/tons*
* Average of swaps and bought call options strikes.
~12 M€
6145
Q4 2018
27 171
14
Volume Price Currency Hedgingdeviation
Q4 2019
-21
+26M€
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%hedge ratio upper lower
15 1) HFS = Held-for-Sale. 2) I-B = Interest-bearing
Healthy balance sheet and cash flow support future investments
• Equity ratio 24.9% (23.3%)
• Gearing 64.3% (76.9%)
• Cash investments for the financial year 2020 relate mainly to fleet and are expected to total approximately 432 million euros, including advance payments.
503
31 Dec 2019
378
3 878
1 073
966
337
2 155
4 037
314
31 Dec 2018
1 021
440
2 262
918
1 774336
30 Sep 2019
133
742
320
2 270
31 Dec 2019
1 575
451
716
169
1 707
165
921
30 Sep 2019
445
673
31 Dec 2018
3 944 4 037 3 878 3 944
953
Other fixed assetsAssets HFSCashOther assets
FleetLiabilities HFSI-B debtTickets
Other liabilitiesProvisionsEquity
Customer satisfaction up
• NPS increased to 41
• New extended lounge facilities at the Non-Schengen part of Helsinki Airport
• Signature menus by Chinese top chef DeAilleTamin in business class on flights from GreaterChina
• Investments into customer communications and disruption management
• Finnair.com development continued
16
• NPS for Finnair mobile app 68
• New functionalities in mobile app
• New content in Nordic Sky portal
• Renewed Finnair.com rolled out in 35 markets in 16 languages
• New apps used by personnel to improve situationalawareness and improve efficiency
• AI used to improve process and decision making
Digital services improve customerexperience and efficiency
17
We continue to implement our strategy
• Growth in line with market growth
• Strengthened customer offer
• Increased efficiency
• Improved market position in Asia
• Sustainability as a key driver
18
Outlook and guidance
Guidance on 7 February 2020:We are currently seeing strong performance continuing in Europe. As stated earlier, the direct financial impact of coronavirus during Q1 2020 is relatively limited, even if the mainland China cancellations continued until end of Q1 2020.We currently forecast our capacity to increase by approximately 4 per cent in 2020. Due to the situation with coronavirus, we do not provide a full year revenue estimate at this time. The guidance will be updated in connection to Q1 2020 interim report.
19
20
21
Appendix
Capacity growth driving revenue growth
22
Passenger revenue Q4/2018 vs Q4/2019, M€
• Strong capacity growth drove the increase in passenger revenue. Capacity increase was well received.
• Finland’s EU Council Presidency and decreased competition in Europe improved the unit revenue. Increased competition, especially on routes between China and Finland, and increased capacity to Hong Kong put pressure on yields.
530.9
Q4 2018 ASK PLF (load) FX
53.1
Yield, mix, other
Q4 2019
16.5 3.811.6 615.9
+84.9
176EUR/ PAX
168EUR/ PAX
Q4 2018 Q4 2019
+4.5%
Avg. fare1
Q4 2019Q4 2018
79.076.9
+2.1pp
PLF, %
Q4 2019
10,473
Q4 2018
11,587
+10.6%
ASK, mill
1) Avg. fare = Passenger revenue per revenue passengers
23
RASK trending down whereas CASK trending up
CASK development, € centsRASK development, € cents
• Unit cost (CASK) increased by 2.3%. Unit cost at constant currency excluding fuel increased by 1.3%.(Q4/2019 vs Q4/2018)
• Unit revenue (RASK) increased by 2.5%. Unit revenue at constant currency increased by 1.8%. (Q4/2019 vs Q4/2018)
0
3
1
5
2
4
6
7 6.866.96
Q4 2019Q1 2018 Q2 2018
6.41
Q3 2018 Q3 2019Q4 2018
6.26
Q1 2019
6.58
Q2 2019
6.67 6.53 6.69
0
1
3
7
2
5
6
4
5.05 4.55
6.42
1.41
Q3 2018Q1 2018 Q4 2018Q2 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
1.48
6.06
Q3 2019 Q4 2019
6.12 5.936.27 6.41
6.03
4.88
6.42
5.11
1.32
4.77 4.52
1.36 1.39 1.36
4.56
1.47 1.51
4.94
CASK excl fuelFuel
Steady operating cash flow in Q4
24
471412
415
194
30 Sep 2019
609
330
152
482
31 Dec 2019
1,021953
Cash funds-68.2M€
Commercial paper, deposits and funds > 3 monthsCommercial paper, deposits and funds < 3 months
Liquid funds in cash flowCash and bank deposits
-131.4
609.0
Loan repayments
Hybrid bond
interests
Cash Q3
-15.8
Cash Q4
120.7
481.7
ComparableEBITDA
8.1
Working capital
Investments
-8.7
Other
-46.0
-54.2
Other
Operating+120.1M€
Cash flow-127.3M€
Investing-185.7M€
Financing-61.7M€
Income statementin mill, EUR Q4 2019 Q4 2018 Change % 2019 2018 Change %
Revenue 774.9 683.4 13.4 3,097.7 2,836.1 9.2Other operating income 15.4 18.6 -17.3 56.4 73.7 -23.5
Operating expensesStaff costs -136.3 -119.2 14.4 -534.7 -499.6 7.0Fuel costs -171.4 -145.4 17.9 -687.3 -581.0 18.3Capacity rents -32.1 -30.9 3.9 -130.2 -122.4 6.4Aircraft materials and overhaul -53.4 -42.9 24.5 -201.2 -162.9 23.5Traffic charges -78.7 -74.4 5.7 -331.3 -300.8 10.1Sales, marketing and distribution costs -44.5 -40.9 8.9 -172.1 -159.0 8.2Passenger and handling services -118.3 -110.7 6.8 -476.7 -440.3 8.3Property, IT and other expenses -35.0 -33.6 4.1 -132.4 -131.3 0.9Comparable EBITDA 120.7 104.1 16.0 488.3 512.6 -4.7Depreciation and impairment -89.5 -77.5 15.5 -325.4 -294.2 10.6Comparable operating result 31.2 26.5 17.5 162.8 218.4 -25.4
Operating result 34.7 73.1 -52.5 160.0 256.3 -37.6Financial income 2.1 -1.0 > 200 % 4.8 -2.2 > 200 %Financial expenses -20.4 -21.5 5.3 -83.6 -84.6 1.1Exchange rate gains and losses 14.9 -8.6 > 200 % 12.7 -42.3 > 200 %Share of results in associates and joint ventures -0.9 0.0 - -0.9 0.0 -Result before taxes 30.4 42.0 -27.7 93.0 127.2 -26.9Income taxes -5.9 -8.6 31.1 -18.4 -25.6 27.8Result for the period 24.5 33.4 -26.8 74.5 101.6 -26.7
Hedging currencies and sensitivities
26
* Hedging ratio for USD-basket, which consists of USD- and HKD net cash flows. The sensitivity analysis assumes that the Hong Kong dollar continues to correlate strongly with the US dollar.
Fuel sensitivities 10% change without hedging 10% change, taking hedging into account(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements)
Fuel EUR 65 million EUR 32 million
Currency distribution, % Q4 2019 Q4 2018 2019 2018Currency sensitivities USD and JPY(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements for operational cash flows)
Hedging ratio for operational cash flows (rolling next 12 months)
Sales currencies 10% change without hedging 10% change, taking
hedging into accountEUR 55 56 53 55 - - -USD* 5 4 5 4 see below see below see belowJPY 9 10 11 10 EUR 36 million EUR 16 million 65 %CNY 6 6 7 7 - - -KRW 2 3 3 3 - - -SEK 3 4 3 3 - - -Other 19 18 19 17 - - -Purchase currencies
EUR 57 59 57 60 - - -USD* 36 33 36 32 EUR 84 million EUR 26 million 66 %Other 8 7 7 7 - - -