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Page 1: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4
Page 2: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

• Finnair has cancelled approximately 200 flights between5 February and 29 March• All flights to China between 6 and 29 February• Guangzhou, Beijing Daxing and Nanjing cancelled also during

March

• Direct financial impact is relatively limited in Q1

• We are preparing for different scenarios as it is difficult to estimate the length of coronavirus impact

• One A350 delivery has been delayed from April to June

• We are committed to the Chinese market on a long-term basis– some tactical changes to flight frequencies may be done

Coronavirus impact on Finnair

2

Page 3: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Outlook and guidance

Guidance on 7 February 2020:We are currently seeing strong performance continuing in Europe. As stated earlier, the direct financial impact of coronavirus during Q1 2020 is relatively limited, even if the mainland China cancellations continued until end of Q1 2020.We currently forecast our capacity to increase by approximately 4 per cent in 2020. Due to the situation with coronavirus, we do not provide a full year revenue estimate at this time. The guidance will be updated in connection to Q1 2020 interim report.

3

Page 4: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

2019:Volatile year endedwith a strong quarterQ4 2020 Topi Manner, Finnair

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A volatile year for aviation

• Global uncertainties impacted aviation• Trade war• Brexit• Boeing MAX8 issue decreased capacity• Industrial action• Air space restrictions (Pakistan, Iran)

• Sustainability took center stage• Finnair continued strong growth

• ASK +11.3%• New long-haul destinations: Los Angeles, Daxing, Sapporo• Almost 1,000 new people joined Finnair• Strong focus on distribution and digital services

5

Page 6: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Full year 2019: costs excl. fuel increased in line with revenue

6

NPS = Net Promoter Score*New Customer satisfaction survey was launched in beginning of January 2019. In the new survey NPS is calculated based on responses from all customers starting from beginning of 2019, including Finnair Plus and non-members. In 2018, NPS was calculated based on responses from Finnair Plus members only and therefore these results are not comparable. In 2018, NPS was 47.**Finnair carried in total of 14.7 million passengers in 2019 and 13.3 million passenger in 2018.

Capacity

+11.3%Revenue

+9.2%

Comparable operating result

162.8 M€(218.4 M€)

NPS

38*

PLF

-0.1%-pointsOperating cost

+11.1%Passenger volume

+10.3%**

Operating cost(Excl. fuel)

+9.2%(In fuel combined effect of price

paid, currency and hedges totaled 42 million euros)

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Strong Q4 ended the year

• Revenue increased by 13.4% (774.9 M€)

• Over 3.5 million passengers, up to 104 weekly flights to Asia

• Increased market share in Asia and in Europe

• New routes to Beijing Daxing and Sapporo in Japan

• Unit revenues increased in Europe

• Double digit growth in Asian capacity with flat unit revenuesdespite Hongkong unrest

• Global operating environment in cargo weak as expected

• Aurinkomatkat was again Finland’s largest tour operator, with increased market share

7

Page 8: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Q4: Strong revenue growth while costs in check

8

NPS = Net Promoter Score*Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4 2018.**New Customer satisfaction survey was launched in beginning of January 2019. In the new survey NPS is calculated based on responses from all customers starting from beginning of 2019, including Finnair Plus and non-members. In 2018, NPS was calculated based on responses from Finnair Plus members only and therefore these results are not comparable. In Q4 2018, NPS was 45.***Finnair carried in total of 3.5 million passengers in Q4/2019 and 3.2 million passenger in Q4/2018.

Capacity

+10.6%Revenue

+13.4%

Comparable operating result

31.2 M€(26.5 M€)*

NPS

41**

PLF

+2.1%-points

Operating cost

+12.4%Passenger volume

+11.0%***

Operating cost(Excl. fuel)

+10.9%(In fuel combined effect of price

paid, currency and hedges totaled 12 million euros)

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Finnair market share and ASK development – Europe to Asia

Note: 2019/Q4 market shares are only including 2019/October and 2019/November

Finnair market share and ASK development –Helsinki to Europe (incl. domestic Finland)

9

Finnair market shares (rolling 12 months) have increased in both Asian and European traffic

Note: 2019/Q4 market shares are only including 2019/October and 2019/November

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2014

/Q4

2015

/Q1

2015

/Q2

2015

/Q3

2015

/Q4

2016

/Q1

2016

/Q2

2016

/Q3

2016

/Q4

2017

/Q1

2017

/Q2

2017

/Q3

2017

/Q4

2018

/Q1

2018

/Q2

2018

/Q3

2018

/Q4

2019

/Q1

2019

/Q2

2019

/Q3

2019

/Q4

ASK, MillionsFinnair market share [%]

Departure Periods

Finnair market share (rolling 12 months)

Finnair ASK (rolling 12 months)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2014

/Q4

2015

/Q1

2015

/Q2

2015

/Q3

2015

/Q4

2016

/Q1

2016

/Q2

2016

/Q3

2016

/Q4

2017

/Q1

2017

/Q2

2017

/Q3

2017

/Q4

2018

/Q1

2018

/Q2

2018

/Q3

2018

/Q4

2019

/Q1

2019

/Q2

2019

/Q3

2019

/Q4

ASK, MillionsFinnair market

share [%]

Departure Periods

Finnair market share (rolling 12 months)Finnair ASK (rolling 12 months)

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Revenue by product

10

Passenger revenue driving the growth

53 45

531

Q4 2018

39

616

60

5757

Q4 2019

683775

13.4%

Passenger revenueAncillaryCargo Travel services

+16.0%+13.6%-4.6%+7.5%

• European traffic performed strongly, positive development also in North American routes.

• Hong Kong impact in revenue less than expected.

• Ancillary revenue per passenger grew to 12.72€ (12.42).

• Soft global cargo demand environment, especially in Asia, impacted cargo revenue.

• Decreased market supply of package holidays together with the growing customer demand positively affected travel services result.

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We succeeded in increasing both passenger load factors and unit revenues across all market areas, especially in Europe and North America

11

*PLF=Passenger load factor

Total trafficTotal % Change

ASK (million) 11,587.4 10.6%

Revenue (Million) 615.9 16.0%

RASK (Cents/ASK) 5.32 4.8%

PLF % 79.0% 2.1pp

North AmericaTotal % Change

ASK (million) 1,012.0 32.8%

Revenue (Million) 42.3 38.5%

RASK (Cents/ASK) 4.18 4.3%

PLF % 79.9% 1.2pp

EuropeTotal % Change

ASK (million) 4,313.1 6.9%

Revenue (Million) 249.1 17.3%

RASK (Cents/ASK) 5.78 9.8%

PLF % 79.2% 3.4pp

DomesticTotal % Change

ASK (million) 520.0 0.3%

Revenue (Million) 52.8 8.6%

RASK (Cents/ASK) 10.16 8.2%

PLF % 67.4% 3.5pp

AsiaTotal % Change

ASK (million) 5,742.4 11.4%

Revenue (Million) 255.4 12.0%

RASK (Cents/ASK) 4.45 0.5%

PLF % 79.7% 0.8pp

Page 12: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

• Increased competition on routes between China and Finland, and softened demand to Hong Kong weighted down Asia.

• Capacity additions to North Atlantic were well received.• Competitors’ capacity reductions and Finland’s Council of the EU

presidency had a beneficial effect on the European traffic.

Other revenue Q4/18 vs Q4/19

12

Q4 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in Europe

Passenger revenue Q4/18 vs Q4/19

Q4 2019

57.2

53.3

152.5

60.0

5.3

39.2

159.0

Travel services

Q4 2018 Ancillary

44.6

4.0

-2.8

57.3

Cargo

-2.8

+4.3%615.9

27.3

EuropeAsiaQ4 2018 North Atlantic Domestic

Unallo-cated

Q4 2019

11.8

4.9

530.9

36.8 4.2

+16.0%

CargoAncillary and retail revenue

Travel services

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• Unit cost at constant currency excluding fuel increased by 1.3% (Q4/2019 vs Q4/2018)

• Capacity growth 10.6%• Operating costs 12.4%• OPEX excluding fuel 10.9%

Increasing unit cost puts focus on efficiency

13

OPEX, 759.2M€ in total +12.4% Comparable EBIT Q4/18 vs Q4/19

Combined effect of price paid, currency and hedges totaled approx. 12 million euros

OPEX = operating expenses.

22%

18%

16%

10%

12%

7%

6%4% 5%

Fuel

Staff

Passenger and handling services

Traffic charges

Depreciation and impairment

Aircraft materials and overhaul

Sales, marketing and distribution

Capacity rents

Property, IT and other expenses-3.6-4.3

Travel services4.0

Revenue

-1.2

Other operating income

-12.0

Fuel costs

Capacity rents

Aircraft materials

and overhaul

Q4 2018

Q4 2019

Traffic charges

Sales, marketing

and distribution

costs

-12.0

Property, IT and other

expenses

-26.0

-17.1

Ancillarysales 5.3Passenger revenue 84.9

Passenger and

handling services

Depreciation and

impairment

Staff costs

26.5

Cargo -2.8

91.5

-3.2

-10.5

-1.4 31.2-7.6

+4.6M€

Page 14: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Fuel costs increased with volume growth and the USD effect

14

• Q4/18 hedging gain 27.7 M€• Q4/19 hedging gain 0.4 M€CO2 emissions trading fees:• Q4/18: 3.9 M€• Q4/19: 4.0 M€

Fuel costs Q4/19 vs. Q4/18 Fuel hedges 31 December 2019

Period Hedging ratio Average price of the hedged position

Q1 2020 69 % 686 USD/tons*Q2 2020 67 % 681 USD/tons*Q3 2020 57 % 665 USD/tons*Q4 2020 46 % 640 USD/tons*

* Average of swaps and bought call options strikes.

~12 M€

6145

Q4 2018

27 171

14

Volume Price Currency Hedgingdeviation

Q4 2019

-21

+26M€

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%hedge ratio upper lower

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15 1) HFS = Held-for-Sale. 2) I-B = Interest-bearing

Healthy balance sheet and cash flow support future investments

• Equity ratio 24.9% (23.3%)

• Gearing 64.3% (76.9%)

• Cash investments for the financial year 2020 relate mainly to fleet and are expected to total approximately 432 million euros, including advance payments.

503

31 Dec 2019

378

3 878

1 073

966

337

2 155

4 037

314

31 Dec 2018

1 021

440

2 262

918

1 774336

30 Sep 2019

133

742

320

2 270

31 Dec 2019

1 575

451

716

169

1 707

165

921

30 Sep 2019

445

673

31 Dec 2018

3 944 4 037 3 878 3 944

953

Other fixed assetsAssets HFSCashOther assets

FleetLiabilities HFSI-B debtTickets

Other liabilitiesProvisionsEquity

Page 16: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Customer satisfaction up

• NPS increased to 41

• New extended lounge facilities at the Non-Schengen part of Helsinki Airport

• Signature menus by Chinese top chef DeAilleTamin in business class on flights from GreaterChina

• Investments into customer communications and disruption management

• Finnair.com development continued

16

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• NPS for Finnair mobile app 68

• New functionalities in mobile app

• New content in Nordic Sky portal

• Renewed Finnair.com rolled out in 35 markets in 16 languages

• New apps used by personnel to improve situationalawareness and improve efficiency

• AI used to improve process and decision making

Digital services improve customerexperience and efficiency

17

Page 18: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

We continue to implement our strategy

• Growth in line with market growth

• Strengthened customer offer

• Increased efficiency

• Improved market position in Asia

• Sustainability as a key driver

18

Page 19: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Outlook and guidance

Guidance on 7 February 2020:We are currently seeing strong performance continuing in Europe. As stated earlier, the direct financial impact of coronavirus during Q1 2020 is relatively limited, even if the mainland China cancellations continued until end of Q1 2020.We currently forecast our capacity to increase by approximately 4 per cent in 2020. Due to the situation with coronavirus, we do not provide a full year revenue estimate at this time. The guidance will be updated in connection to Q1 2020 interim report.

19

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20

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21

Appendix

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Capacity growth driving revenue growth

22

Passenger revenue Q4/2018 vs Q4/2019, M€

• Strong capacity growth drove the increase in passenger revenue. Capacity increase was well received.

• Finland’s EU Council Presidency and decreased competition in Europe improved the unit revenue. Increased competition, especially on routes between China and Finland, and increased capacity to Hong Kong put pressure on yields.

530.9

Q4 2018 ASK PLF (load) FX

53.1

Yield, mix, other

Q4 2019

16.5 3.811.6 615.9

+84.9

176EUR/ PAX

168EUR/ PAX

Q4 2018 Q4 2019

+4.5%

Avg. fare1

Q4 2019Q4 2018

79.076.9

+2.1pp

PLF, %

Q4 2019

10,473

Q4 2018

11,587

+10.6%

ASK, mill

1) Avg. fare = Passenger revenue per revenue passengers

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23

RASK trending down whereas CASK trending up

CASK development, € centsRASK development, € cents

• Unit cost (CASK) increased by 2.3%. Unit cost at constant currency excluding fuel increased by 1.3%.(Q4/2019 vs Q4/2018)

• Unit revenue (RASK) increased by 2.5%. Unit revenue at constant currency increased by 1.8%. (Q4/2019 vs Q4/2018)

0

3

1

5

2

4

6

7 6.866.96

Q4 2019Q1 2018 Q2 2018

6.41

Q3 2018 Q3 2019Q4 2018

6.26

Q1 2019

6.58

Q2 2019

6.67 6.53 6.69

0

1

3

7

2

5

6

4

5.05 4.55

6.42

1.41

Q3 2018Q1 2018 Q4 2018Q2 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

1.48

6.06

Q3 2019 Q4 2019

6.12 5.936.27 6.41

6.03

4.88

6.42

5.11

1.32

4.77 4.52

1.36 1.39 1.36

4.56

1.47 1.51

4.94

CASK excl fuelFuel

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Steady operating cash flow in Q4

24

471412

415

194

30 Sep 2019

609

330

152

482

31 Dec 2019

1,021953

Cash funds-68.2M€

Commercial paper, deposits and funds > 3 monthsCommercial paper, deposits and funds < 3 months

Liquid funds in cash flowCash and bank deposits

-131.4

609.0

Loan repayments

Hybrid bond

interests

Cash Q3

-15.8

Cash Q4

120.7

481.7

ComparableEBITDA

8.1

Working capital

Investments

-8.7

Other

-46.0

-54.2

Other

Operating+120.1M€

Cash flow-127.3M€

Investing-185.7M€

Financing-61.7M€

Page 25: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

Income statementin mill, EUR Q4 2019 Q4 2018 Change % 2019 2018 Change %

Revenue 774.9 683.4 13.4 3,097.7 2,836.1 9.2Other operating income 15.4 18.6 -17.3 56.4 73.7 -23.5

Operating expensesStaff costs -136.3 -119.2 14.4 -534.7 -499.6 7.0Fuel costs -171.4 -145.4 17.9 -687.3 -581.0 18.3Capacity rents -32.1 -30.9 3.9 -130.2 -122.4 6.4Aircraft materials and overhaul -53.4 -42.9 24.5 -201.2 -162.9 23.5Traffic charges -78.7 -74.4 5.7 -331.3 -300.8 10.1Sales, marketing and distribution costs -44.5 -40.9 8.9 -172.1 -159.0 8.2Passenger and handling services -118.3 -110.7 6.8 -476.7 -440.3 8.3Property, IT and other expenses -35.0 -33.6 4.1 -132.4 -131.3 0.9Comparable EBITDA 120.7 104.1 16.0 488.3 512.6 -4.7Depreciation and impairment -89.5 -77.5 15.5 -325.4 -294.2 10.6Comparable operating result 31.2 26.5 17.5 162.8 218.4 -25.4

Operating result 34.7 73.1 -52.5 160.0 256.3 -37.6Financial income 2.1 -1.0 > 200 % 4.8 -2.2 > 200 %Financial expenses -20.4 -21.5 5.3 -83.6 -84.6 1.1Exchange rate gains and losses 14.9 -8.6 > 200 % 12.7 -42.3 > 200 %Share of results in associates and joint ventures -0.9 0.0 - -0.9 0.0 -Result before taxes 30.4 42.0 -27.7 93.0 127.2 -26.9Income taxes -5.9 -8.6 31.1 -18.4 -25.6 27.8Result for the period 24.5 33.4 -26.8 74.5 101.6 -26.7

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Hedging currencies and sensitivities

26

* Hedging ratio for USD-basket, which consists of USD- and HKD net cash flows. The sensitivity analysis assumes that the Hong Kong dollar continues to correlate strongly with the US dollar.

Fuel sensitivities 10% change without hedging 10% change, taking hedging into account(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements)

Fuel EUR 65 million EUR 32 million

Currency distribution, % Q4 2019 Q4 2018 2019 2018Currency sensitivities USD and JPY(rolling 12 months from date of financial statements for operational cash flows)

Hedging ratio for operational cash flows (rolling next 12 months)

Sales currencies 10% change without hedging 10% change, taking

hedging into accountEUR 55 56 53 55 - - -USD* 5 4 5 4 see below see below see belowJPY 9 10 11 10 EUR 36 million EUR 16 million 65 %CNY 6 6 7 7 - - -KRW 2 3 3 3 - - -SEK 3 4 3 3 - - -Other 19 18 19 17 - - -Purchase currencies

EUR 57 59 57 60 - - -USD* 36 33 36 32 EUR 84 million EUR 26 million 66 %Other 8 7 7 7 - - -

Page 27: Coronavirus impact on Finnair/media/Files/F/Finnair-IR/... · 2020-02-07 · *Pilot long-term incentive scheme cancelled in 2018 caused a positive one-off item of c. 11 M€ in Q4

THANK YOU

Contact us:

Finnair IR and financial [email protected]