ebo – language, meaning and the effects- based approach
TRANSCRIPT
Authors: Simon Ng and Donald Lowe
Presenter: Thea Clark
Defence Science and Technology Organisation
Department of Defence, Australia
EBO – language, meaning and the effects-based approach
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EBO – the fundamentals
• The general aim of EBO is to maximise effectiveness, better integrate activities and minimise wasted effort
• The basic idea of EBO is not new, but the language and formalisms are
• But do we agree upon what EBO and effects really mean and how best to describe them?
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What is understood by effects and EBO?Are Effects …
• impacts?• consequences?• end-states?• outcomes?• objectives?• goals?
Is EBO …• a process?• an approach?• a methodology?• a plan?• a concept?
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What is EBO?Sample definitions
“Effects-based operations are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war”
(Ed Smith, 2002)“effects-based operations: military actions and operations designed to produce distinctive and desired effects through the application of appropriate movement, supply, attack, defense, and maneuvers”
(Mann et al., 2001)“effects-based operations represent the identification and engagement of an enemy’s vulnerabilities and strengths in a unified, focused manner, and uses all available assets to produce specific effects consistent with the commander’s intent.”
(Batschelet, 2002)Effects-based operations are “actions that change the state of a system to achieve directed policy aims using the integrated application of select instruments of power.”
(US JFCOM, 2003)
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What are Effects?Sample definitions
“An effect is a result or impact created by the application of military or other power.”(Ed Smith, 2002)
“effects: the physical, functional, systemic, and/or psychological outcomes, events, or consequences that result from specific military action.”
(Mann et al., 2001)An effect is “the cumulative consequence across the security environment of one or more actions (or tasks) taken at any level with any instrument of Government”
(UK JDCC, 2003)“An effect is, simply, ‘the physical and, or behavioral state of a system that results from a military or non-military action or set of actions.’ ”
(US JFCOM, 2003)
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Kinds of effects (Smith)
(after Figure 40, Smith (2002))
Psychological attritionPhysical Attrition
Foreclosure
Chaos / EntropyChaos / Entropy
ShockDestruction
PsychologicalPhysical
Effects
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Kinds of effects (Davis)
(after Figure 2.3, Davis (2001))
Paralyze, SlowDisrupt processes
Influence
Divert, confuseKill people
DemoralizeDamage equipment, systems
BehavioralPhysical
Effects (by type of target)
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Kinds of effects (Mann et al.)
(after Figure 4, Mann, Endersby and Searle (2002))
CascadingPhysicalCumulative
PsychologicalPsychological
Systemic
CollateralCollateral
FunctionalFunctional
Indirect (2nd/3rd order)Direct (1st order)
Effects (linked to type of outcome)
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Kinds of effects (Williams)
(after Figure 3, Williams (2002))
Effects
DesirableDesired
UndesirableUndesired
UnpredictedPredicted
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Kinds of effects (UK JDCC)
after UK JDCC (2003)
• An Effect - “The cumulative consequence across the security environment of one or more actions (or tasks) taken at any level with any instrument of Government”
Actions can be focused on one or more dimensions• On any actor (Red, Blue, White)• Generated by MEANS• On Will and/or Capability• Intended, Unintended, desired, un-desired, expected, un-expected, +ve and -ve
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Aim
• To develop a basis set of EBO terms and definitions to provide a foundation upon which an EBO language can be constructed
• This set should be• clear and precise• self-consistent• useable at different scales (tactical to strategic) i.e. fractal• universally applicable
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The (prototype) Axioms
1. States are descriptions of the value of an entity at a moment in time1.1 An entity is an object that can be described as existing in a defined state
2. A delta is the difference between two states of an entity3. An action produces an effect that moves an entity from one state to another
state4. A system is defined by one or more entities that interact with one another5. An effect is any change in the state of an entity caused by an action on the
system of which the entity is a part5.1 An effect removes a delta
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Properties
• States may be desirable or undesirable• Effects may be intended or unintended• Actions may be directly causal or indirectly causal• States, effects and actions may all be anticipated or unanticipated
• An objective is a state of an entity that is desirable and not yet attained• A constraint is a state of an entity that is desirable and to be maintained
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Comparisons• The construct essentially utilizes the same properties also used by the UK JDCC and Williams
• Effects and actions are explicitly defined and the properties are further refined, ascribing them specifically to one or more of these terms
• The descriptions of Davis and Smith are seen to be higher-level effects concepts - they are more complex and richer descriptions of effects that can be distilled using this framework. The basic categorizations of physical and psychological/behavioural effects would be rephrased as the change of state of an entity e.g.
• "Foreclosure" (Smith) could be viewed as the inability for certain psychological states of entities being able to be realized (implying that certain effects cannot occur)• "Disrupt Processes" (Davis) can be viewed as the state of entities (as a collective system) not physically functioning at capacity
• Mann, Endersby and Searle’s concept of “direct effects” would be instead described as actions that directly produce a change of state
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Example: initial condition of scenarioScenario
• A nation, Green, is in crisis.• Green is struggling under the weight of ethnic tensions between various red ad orange factions and social failure that is compounded by bureaucratic incompetence.• Blue has been asked to intervene in order to help restore law and order and to address the wider socio-economic problems besetting the country.•An analysis has been performed on the situation in order for Blue and Green to have a whole-problem picture.
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Example: identifying the significant entitiesIdentify the main entities
• The main entity of concern to Blue is readily apparent:a) Regional Stability
• Other entities of relevance to the situation within Green territory are:b) Level of government corruption in Greenc) Ability of Green government to maintain law and orderd) Seriousness of social problems in Greene) Effectiveness of Green government institutionsf) Level of ethnic conflict in Green
• More entities directly impact on the key entities above:g) Migrantsh) Level of aid giveni) External confidence in Green government handling of aidj) Resolve of Green government to stamp out corruptionAnd so on….
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ExampleDevelop an influence diagram linking entities
b Level of government corruption
h Level of aid given
Level of investment
a Regional stability
c Ability to maintain
L&O
i External confidence in government handling of funds/aid
e Effectiveness of
government institutions
Level of social
services provided
j Green resolve to stamp out corruption
d Seriousness of social problems
Utilisation of natural resources
Level of development
activity
Number of jobs
f Levels of ethnic
conflict
Population
g Ethnic migrants
into Green
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Link the current and future status of each entity via an effect
b0 Level of government corruption
HIGH
h0 Level of aid given
LOW
Level of investment
LOW
a0 Regional stabilityLOW
c0 Ability to maintain
L&OPOOR
i0 External confidence in government handling of funds/aid
LOW
e0 Effectiveness of
government institutions
LOW
Level of social services provided
MODERATE
j0 Green resolve to stamp out corruption
LOW
d0 Seriousness of social problems
HIGH
Utilisation of natural
resources MODERATE
Level of development
activity MODERATE
Number of jobs LOW
f0 Levels of ethnic conflictMODERATE
PopulationMODERATE
g0 Ethnic migrants
into Green HIGH
b0 Level of government corruption
LOW
h0 Level of aid given
ADEQUATE
Level of investment
ADEQUATE
a0 Regional stabilityHIGH
c0 Ability to maintain
L&OGOOD
i0 External confidence in government handling of funds/aid
HIGH
e0 Effectiveness of
government institutions
HIGH
Level of social services provided
ADEQUATE
j0 Green resolve to stamp out corruption
HIGH
d0 Seriousness of social problems
LOW
Utilisation of natural resources GOOD
Level of development
activity GOOD
Number of jobs HIGH
f0 Levels of ethnic
conflictLOW
PopulationSUSTAINABLE
g0Ethnic migrants
into Green SUSTAINABLE
CURRENT STATE FUTURE DESIRED STATE
ELIMINATE government corruption
MINIMISE REQUIREMENT
for aid given
TARGET investment
INCREASE regional stability
IMPROVE ability to maintain
L&O
IMPROVE external
confidence in government handling of funds/aid
IMPROVE effectiveness
of government institutions
IMPROVE provision of
social services
STRENGTHEN green resolve to
stamp out corruption
ELIMINATE social
problems
IMPROVE utilisation of
natural resources
INCREASE development
activity
INCREASE number of
jobs
REDUCE levels of ethnic conflict
ADJUST Population
ADJUST Ethnic migrants into
Green
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Example: identify intervention points
ELIMINATE government corruption
MINIMISE REQUIREMENT
for aid given
TARGET investment
INCREASE regional stability
IMPROVE ability to maintain
L&O
IMPROVE external
confidence in government handling of funds/aid
IMPROVE effectiveness
of government institutions
IMPROVE provision of
social services
STRENGTHEN green resolve to
stamp out corruption
ELIMINATE social
problems
IMPROVE utilisation of
natural resources
INCREASE development
activity
INCREASE number of
jobs
REDUCE levels of ethnic conflict
ADJUST Population
ADJUST Ethnic migrants into
Green
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Example: identify loops
ELIMINATE government corruption
TARGET investment
INCREASE Regional stability
IMPROVE ability to maintain
L&O
IMPROVE external
confidence in
government handling of funds/aid
IMPROVE effectiveness
of government institutions
IMPROVE social
service provision
ELIMINATE social
problems
INCREASE development
activity
INCREASE number of
jobs in Honiara
REDUCE levels of ethnic
conflict
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
LOOP
POLITICAL EFFECTIVENESS
LOOP
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Example: tackle the loopsExploration of possible actions
• The primary effect is to:• Effect <INCREASE regional stability>
• Intervention points for BLUE:• Effect <IMPROVE ability to Maintain L&O> • Effect <RAISE level of foreign investment in Green>• Effect <IMPROVE effectiveness of Green government institutions>
• Directly causal actions for effect <IMPROVE ability to Maintain L&O>
• Direct military or policing support to Green government enforcement of Law and Order.• Psychological intervention to deter disorderly and illegal behaviour
• Indirectly causal actions for effect <IMPROVE ability to Maintain L&O>• Aid programmes to target socio-economic loop (A)
TARGET investment
INCREASE regional stability
IMPROVE ability to maintain
L&O
INCREASE development
activity
INCREASE number of
jobs
REDUCE levels of ethnic conflict
A
Socio-economic loop
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Some key questions
• Does it make sense?
• Where does it break?• Is it clear and precise?• Is it sufficiently coherent and comprehensive?• Is it universally applicable?• Is it scalable?
• Is it useful?
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Finally, something to ponder …
For Perfect EBO, we require …• Perfect information / awareness / knowledge of the system• Perfect understanding of the system and system dynamics• Perfect execution / cause-effect
• Obviously, this is unattainable, so …How do we do “Good Enough” EBO?