mainstreet report for friends of canadian broadcasting

FEDERAL ELECTION 2015

Brampton CentreBrampton North

Courtenay-AlberniEdmonton Centre

Edmonton Mill WoodsFlamborough-Glanbrook

Hamilton West-Ancaster-DundasLondon West

OakvilleSaint John-RothesayVancouver-Granville

+/- 3.82* +/- 3.72 +/- 3.76 +/- 3.69 +/- 3.73 +/- 3.80 +/- 3.76 +/- 3.75 +/- 3.82 +/- 4.33 +/- 3.78

October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8October 8

Riding Date Margin of ErrorSample

653689672701684659672678653

510**665

Formed in 1985, FRIENDS of Canadian Broadcasting is an independent, Canada-wide, non-partisan voluntary organization supported by 180,000 households whose mission is to defend and enhance the quality and quantity of Canadian programming in the Canadian audio-visual system. FRIENDS is not a�liated with any broadcaster or political party.

FRIENDS relies upon individuals for donations to finance its watchdog role, public policy initiatives, public opinion leadership and research activities directed at our priorities. We do not accept contributions from organizations which hold a licence from the Canadian Radio-Television Telecommunications Commission (CRTC), Ottawa's broadcast regulatory agency, or from organizations a�liated with licensees.

FRIENDS of Canadian Broadcasting is a not-for profit organization directed by a Steering Committee. Noreen Golfman, Dean of Graduate Studies and Professor of Film and English at Memorial University, chairs our Steering Committee and Ian Morrison is our spokesperson and manager of ongoing operations.

ABOUT FRIENDS OF CANADIAN BROADCASTING

*19 times out of 20***Caution: Low Sample

Bal Gosal (CPC)Rosemary Keenan (NDP)Ramesh Sangha (LPC)Saul Bottcher (GPC)Undecided

Certain38% 12% 37%3% 11%

Likely27% 33%10%3%

26%

Unlikely7%12%11%53% 16%

Might8%0%

70%0%22%

Bal Gosal (CPC)Rosemary Keenan (NDP)Ramesh Sangha (LPC)Saul Bottcher (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4930% 17%33% 7% 14%125

50-6442%9%35%2%13%211

65+37% 13%33%4% 13%234

Female32% 12%36%4%16%361

Male40% 13% 35% 5%7%292

Gosal Keenan Sangha Bottcher Undecided

All Voters Decided & Leaning

36%

12%

36%

5% 12%

40%

14%

41%

5%

18-3437% 10% 41%5% 7%83

BRAMPTON CENTRE

BRAMPTON CENTRE

Strong SupporterMight ChangeNot Sure

CPC87%12%1%

NDP48%50%2%

GPC69%29%1%

LPC84%9%7%

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC, which of the follow two statements is closest to your personal view?

38% More likely to vote for a candidate who favours increasing the CBC's budget

12% More likely to vote for a candidate who favours privatizing the CBC

50% Unsure

40% Strongly agree

19% Somewhat agree

32% Neither agree nor disagree

4% Somewhat disagree

6% Strongly disagree

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding, do you believe these cuts should be reversed?

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC, have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?

38%

12%

50%

29% Have

54% Have not

17% Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

29%

54%

17%

59%

10%

32%

Increase Privatize Unsure

Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree

Have Have not Unsure

BRAMPTON NORTH

Parm Gill (CPC)Martin Singh (NDP)Ruby Sahota (LPC)Pauline Thornham (GPC)Undecided

Certain31% 14%45%1%9%

Likely28% 20%13%0%39%

Unlikely76%7%0%0%17%

Might10% 9%

67%0%14%

Parm Gill (CPC)Martin Singh (NDP)Ruby Sahota (LPC)Pauline Thornham (GPC)UndecidedSample

18-3435% 16% 36%0% 13%98

35-4929% 13%49%0%9%136

50-6432% 16%41%0%11%199

65+36% 8%

44%1%

11%256

Female25% 12%50%0% 12%392

Male40% 16% 35%0%9%297

Gill Singh Sahota Thornham Undecided


32%

14%

43% 1% 11%

37%

16%

46% 1%

BRAMPTON NORTH


CPC79%17%4%

NDP64%33%4%

GPC100%0%0%

LPC73%23%3%




53% Unsure

35% Strongly agree

13% Somewhat agree






32% Have

54% Have not

14% Unsure





36%

11%

53%

48%

9%

42%

32%

54%

14%

COURTENAY-ALBERNI

John Duncan (CPC)Gord Johns (NDP)Carrie Powell-Davidson (LPC)Glenn Sollitt (GPC)Undecided

Certain29% 32%19%11%9%

Likely37% 10%32%1%

20%


Might9% 7%7%

67% 9%

John Duncan (CPC)Gord Johns (NDP)Carrie Powell-Davidson (LPC)Glenn Sollitt (GPC)UndecidedSample

18-3435% 19%23%18% 6%75

35-4924% 29%17%17% 13%105

50-6421% 37%19%12%11%238

65+35% 34%14%8% 10%254

Female26% 36%15%17%6%356

Male30% 23%22%11% 13%316

Duncan Johns Powell-Davdson Sollitt Undecided


28%

29%

19%

14%

10%

30%

33%

20%

16%

COURTENAY-ALBERNI


CPC95%4%1%

NDP80%17%2%

GPC47%48%6%

LPC69%31%0%




38% Unsure

45% Strongly agree

23% Somewhat agree






74% Have

23% Have not

4% Unsure





47%

15%

38%

65%

9%

25%

74%

23%

4%

EDMONTON CENTRE

James Cumming (CPC)Gil McGowan (NDP)Randy Boissonnault (LPC)David Parker (GPC)Undecided

Certain31%33%26%2%9%

Likely17%55%9%3% 16%


Might45%0%39%4%12%

James Cumming (CPC)Gil McGowan (NDP)Randy Boissonnault (LPC)David Parker (GPC)UndecidedSample

18-3424%51%17%0% 7%104

35-4927%29%29%4% 11%158

50-6433%25%26%4%12%204

65+38%19%30%1%

11%235

Female20%43%26%2%9%354

Male39%26%22%3% 11%347

Cumming McGowan Boissonnault Parker Undecided


29%

35%

24%

2% 10%

31%

38%

27%

3%

EDMONTON CENTRE


CPC91%8%1%

NDP77%20%3%

GPC42%52%6%

LPC52%37%11%




39% Unsure

47% Strongly agree

12% Somewhat agree






58% Have

35% Have not

7% Unsure





43%

17%

39%

59%25%

17%

58%

35%

7%

EDMONTON MILL WOODS

Tim Uppal (CPC)Jasvir Deol (NDP)Amarjeet Sohi (LPC)Ralph Mclean (GPC)Undecided

Certain37% 12%36% 6% 9%

Likely32% 22%30%2%

13%

Unlikely28% 5%39%4%

23%

Might17% 5%21%0%

57%

Tim Uppal (CPC)Jasvir Deol (NDP)Amarjeet Sohi (LPC)Ralph Mclean (GPC)UndecidedSample

18-3425% 13%47% 7% 7%103

35-4936% 13%31% 5% 15%157

50-6445% 14%27% 2% 12%211

65+50% 7%28%6% 9%213

Female31% 12%38% 6% 13%349

Male41% 13%33% 5% 8%335

Uppal Deol Sohi Mclean Undecided


36%

12%

35%

5% 11%

39%

15%

39%

7%

EDMONTON MILL WOODS


CPC80%11%9%

NDP78%20%2%

GPC48%48%4%

LPC70%26%5%




46% Unsure

41% Strongly agree

17% Somewhat agree






44% Have

47% Have not

9% Unsure





40%

14%

46%

58%

29%

12%

44%

47%

9%

FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK

David Sweet (CPC)Mike Dilivio (NDP)Jennifer Stebbing (LPC)David Urqhart (GPC)Undecided

Certain45% 11%23%7%14%

Likely22% 5%0%34%40%


Might3%0%17%71% 9%

David Sweet (CPC)Mike Dilivio (NDP)Jennifer Stebbing (LPC)David Urqhart (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4945% 9%19% 5% 22%134

65+37% 10%31%5%

17%208

Female9%

16%23% 9% 13%355

Male43% 8%23% 7% 19%304

Sweet Dilivio Stebbing Urqhart Undecided

18-3439% 18%16%17% 11%126

50-6443% 10%30% 2% 15%191


41%

12%

23%

8% 16%

48%

14%

28%

9%

FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK


CPC80%15%5%

NDP79%16%5%

GPC34%64%2%

LPC79%16%5%




4% Unsure

34% Strongly agree

17% Somewhat agree






42% Have

48% Have not

10% Unsure





37%

16%

46%

51%

33%

16%

42%

48%

10%

HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS

Vincent Samuel (CPC)Alex Johnstone (NDP)Filomena Tassi (LPC)Peter Ormond (GPC)Undecided

Certain26%16%43%6% 9%

Likely6%5%

36% 1%

52%

Unlikely9%7%

68%0%15%

Might12%2%15%26% 46%

Vincent Samuel (CPC)Alex Johnstone (NDP)Filomena Tassi (LPC)Peter Ormond (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4925%16%39% 7%13%136

65+29%13%43% 3% 11%250

Female22%17%43% 7% 12%352

Male26%11%43% 6% 15%320

Samuel Johnstone Tassi Ormond Undecided

18-3424%14%39%7% 16%97

50-6425%16%39% 7%

13%189


24%

14%

43%

6% 13%

27%

16%

50%

7%

HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS


CPC91%8%1%

NDP64%33%3%

GPC52%22%26%

LPC67%29%4%




38% Unsure

44% Strongly agree

19% Somewhat agree






72% Have

24% Have not

5% Unsure





48%

14%

38%

63%7%

28%

72%

24%

5%

LONDON WEST

Vincent Samuel (CPC)Alex Johnstone (NDP)Filomena Tassi (LPC)Peter Ormond (GPC)Undecided

Certain31% 18% 38%4%9%

Likely6% 12% 15%33% 34%


Might25% 5% 10%5%

56%

Ed Holder (CPC)Matthew Rowlinson (NDP)Kate Young (LPC)Dimitri Lascaris (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4926% 15% 40%1%

18%134

65+6% 10% 30%2% 11%230

Female24% 19% 38%5%

15%356

Male36% 15% 36%5% 8%322

Holder Rowlinson Young Lascaris Undecided

18-3422% 24% 35%12% 7%87

50-6430% 16% 41%3%10%227


30%

17%

37%

5% 12%

33%

19%

42%

6%

LONDON WEST


CPC89%9%2%

NDP74%25%1%

GPC31%65%4%

LPC68%27%5%




40% Unsure

45% Strongly agree

17% Somewhat agree






74% Have

21% Have not

5% Unsure





43%

16%

40%

63%

25%

12%

74%

21%

5%

OAKVILLE

Terence Young (CPC)Che Marville (NDP)John Oliver (LPC)David Doel (GPC)Undecided

Certain36%3%

50%5%6%

Likely40% 12%12%25% 11%

Unlikely9%0%0%57% 34%

Might35%0%19%10% 36%

Terence Young (CPC)Che Marville (NDP)John Oliver (LPC)David Doel (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4936% 4%

45% 7% 9%133

65+40% 6%

46%3% 5%238

Female32% 3%50% 8%7%353

Male40% 4%

43% 6%7%

300

Young Marville Oliver Doel Undecided

18-3431%4%51%13%6%85

50-6439% 5%45% 4% 7%197


36%

4% 47%

7% 7% 38%

5% 50%

7%

OAKVILLE


CPC79%20%1%

NDP52%47%2%

GPC21%71%9%

LPC73%24%3%




35% Unsure

42% Strongly agree

16% Somewhat agree






72% Have

25% Have not

4% Unsure





45%

20%

35%

58%27%

16%

72%

25%

4%

SAINT JOHN-ROTHESAY

Rodney Weston (CPC)AJ Gri�n (NDP)Wayne Long (LPC)Sharon Murphy (GPC)Undecided

Certain32%20%34%2%

12%

Likely44%33%14%0%9%

Unlikely17%11%45%0%26%

Might13%50%8%7% 21%

Rodney Weston (CPC)AJ Gri�n (NDP)Wayne Long (LPC)Sharon Murphy (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4928%21%38%7%7%99

65+42%11%34%2%11%201

Female31%17%35%3%15%274

Male33%26%30% 2%9%236

Weston AJ Gri�n Long Murphy Undecided

18-3430%37%16%0%17%75

50-6429%18%39%1%

13%135


32%

21%

32%

3% 12%

36%

26%

34%

4%




45% Unsure


SAINT JOHN-ROTHESAY









47% Strongly agree

14% Somewhat agree




67% Have

26% Have not

7% Unsure

NDP67%30%3%

GPC57%31%11%

LPC70%24%6%

CPC77%17%6%

45%

9%

45%

61%

10%

29%

67%

26%

7%

VANCOUVER-GRANVILLE

Erinn Broshko (CPC)Mira Oreck (NDP)Jody Wilson-Raybould (LPC)Michael Barkusky (GPC)Undecided

Certain17%26%41%8%9%

Likely18%46%18%0%18%

Unlikely18%26%18%0%38%

Might8%0%11%16%65%

Erinn Broshko (CPC)Mira Oreck (NDP)Jody Wilson-Raybould (LPC)Michael Barkusky (GPC)UndecidedSample

35-4914%33%41%2%10%102

65+33%8%

36%7%17%232

Female17%26%41%5%11%364

Male17%24%37%11%11%301

Broshko Oreck Wilson-Raybould Barkusky Undecided

18-348%

25%44%14%9%95

50-6420%27%33%8%12%236


17%

25%

39%

8% 11%

20%

28%

44%

9%

VANCOUVER-GRANVILLE


CPC89%11%0%

NDP58%40%2%

GPC84%16%0%

LPC75%19%6%




26% Unsure

63% Strongly agree

16% Somewhat agree






25% Have

65% Have not

11% Unsure





79%

15%

7%

65%9%

26%

24%

65%

11%

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.

Polls were conducted in Brampton Centre, Brampton North, Courtenay-Alberni, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, London West, Oakville, Saint John-Rothesay and Vancouver Granville using Smart IVR™. See next page for dial dates, samples and margins of error.

Polls were commissioned and paid for by the Friends of Canadian Broadasting.

For More Information:Mainstreet Research:

David Valentin, [email protected]

mainstreet report for friends of canadian broadcasting

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