monthly credit union estimates 4 monthly credit union estimates may 2020 national credit union...

Download MONTHLY CREDIT UNION ESTIMATES 4 Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020 National Credit Union Aggregates

Post on 12-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • May 2020

    MONTHLY CREDIT UNION ESTIMATES

    Prepared July 1, 2020 by Credit Union National Association Economics and Statistics Department

    cuna.org/mcue

    http://cuna.org/mcue

  • ii

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020

    Period YTD Growth

    YTD Interest Rate Averages

    Long-term Short-term Difference

    Loans Savings 10-yr. Treasury Federal Funds

    Rate (Long-Short)

    May ’20 2.0% 12.0% 1.09% 0.78% 0.32% May ’19 1.7% 5.0% 2.58% 2.40% 0.17%

    May ’18 3.5% 3.0% 2.83% 1.55% 1.28%

    May ’17 3.9% 3.5% 2.39% 0.78% 1.60%

    May ’16 1.8% 3.7% 1.88% 0.36% 1.51%

    Loans Credit union loans outstanding grew 1.0% in May, compared to a 0.1% increase in April and a 0.6% increase in May of 2019. Fixed-rate mortgages led loan growth during the month, rising 2.0%, followed by used auto loans (0.6%). On the decline during the month were adjustable-rate mortgages (-0.3%), unsecured personal loans (-0.4%), new auto loans (-0.9%), other mortgage loans (-1.0%), home equity loans (-1.4%), and credit card loans (-1.4%).

    Savings Credit union savings balances increased 2.6% in May, compared to a 4.7% increase in April and a 1.3% increase in May of 2019. Share drafts led savings growth during the month, rising 4.3%, followed by regular share (4.0%), money market accounts (2.1%), and individual retirement accounts (0.3%). One-year certificates declined during May (-0.5%).

    Asset quality Credit unions’ 60+ day delinquency remained at 0.7% in April.

    Liquidity The loan-to-savings ratio decreased from 78.1% in April to 76.9% in May. The liquidity ratio (the ratio of surplus funds maturing in less than one year to borrowings plus other liabilities) increased from 19.8% in April to 20.9% in May.

    Memberships Total credit union memberships grew 0.2% during May to 123.5 million.

    Capital The movement’s overall capital-to-asset decreased to 10.5% in May. The total dollar amount of capital increased 1.8% to $185.5 billion.

  • iii

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020

    CHARTS

    Distribution of Credit Union Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Distribution of Credit Union Loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Credit Union Liquidity Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Distribution of Surplus Funds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Credit Union Capital Ratio and Delinquency . . . . . . . . 2

    Credit Union Auto Loan and Savings Rates . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Non-revolving Loan Market Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Savings & Consumer Credit Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    TABLES

    National Credit Union Aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    National Credit Union Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    National Credit Union Loan Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    National Credit Union Income and Expense Ratios . . . 7

    Credit Union & Household Savings Market Data . . . . . 8

    Credit Union & Consumer Credit Market Data . . . . . . . 9

    The estimates in this report are based on information from monthly sample of credit unions and are revised whenever more complete data is available. The estimates have been revised to reflect benchmark data as of December 2019.

    Look for the June 2020 edition of Monthly Credit Union Estimates during the last week of July.

    © Copyright 2020 by Credit Union National Association Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

  • 1

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020

    Distribution of credit union savings

    Distribution of credit union loans

    IRAs 5.5%

    MMAs 20.0%

    Certs 19.7%

    Share Drafts 17.3%

    Reg/Other 37.5%

    IRAs 6.2%

    MMAs 20.5%

    Certs 20.4%

    Share Drafts 15.0%

    Reg/Other 37.9%

    May ’20 Savings = $1,504.0 Billion May ’19 Savings = $1,304.7 Billion

    May ’20 Loans = $1,156.1 Billion May ’19 Loans = $1,082.8 Billion

    Other 5.8%Home Equity

    5.0% Sec Mort

    2.8%

    1st Mort Adj 10.1%

    1st Mort Fixed 34.3%

    Unsec 9.2%

    Used Auto 20.2%

    New Auto 12.6%

    Other 6.2%Home Equity

    5.3% Sec Mort

    3.2%

    1st Mort Adj 11.2%

    1st Mort Fixed 29.6%

    Unsec 9.9%

    Used Auto 20.9%

    New Auto 13.7%

    (1) Some credit unions sweep share draft balances weekly to reduce reserve requirements. This causes a distortion (i.e. total share draft balances appear smaller than they otherwise would be) in months ending on Friday.

  • 2

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020

    Maturity of surplus funds Dec 2019 vs. Dec 2018 (All Credit Unions) (sum of cash plus investments)

    Credit union liquidity flows Changes during the period

    Capital ratio and delinquency

    3-10 yrs 22.4%

    1-3 yrs 23.9%

    10 yrs 1.5%

    3-10 yrs 26.2%

    1-3 yrs 24.9%

    10 yrs 1.1%

    Dec ’19 Dec ’18

    0

    1

    2

    3

    delinquency rate

    May ’20Apr ’20Mar ’20Feb ’20Jan ’20Dec ’19Nov ’19Oct ’19Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19

    loan delinquency as % of total loans

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    capital/assets

    % captial ratio (excl loss allowance)

    11.0% 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.0

    10.6% 10.5%

    0.60% 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.70 0.70 0.64 0.63 0.69%

    0.70% 0.70

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    investmentssavingsloans

    from 1 year agofrom 6 months agofrom 3 months ago

    for complete data, see page 5

    100.61

    31.35

    159.15

    134.96

    May ’20

    B ill

    io ns

    o f

    d ol

    la rs

    73.23

    115.69

    $16.08

    199.27

    $148.52

    National Totals

    Dec 2019 Total Surplus Funds= $383.68 Billion Dec 2018 Total Surplus Funds= $354.66 Billion

  • 3

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020

    Credit union auto loan and savings rates

    Savings & Consumer Credit Market Share

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    savings market

    May ’20Apr ’20Mar ’20Feb ’20Jan ’20Dec ’19Nov ’19Oct ’19Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    consumer creditfor complete data, see pages 9 & 10

    10.3 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3

    11.611.511.511.511.611.711.5 11.711.611.6 11.3

    11.6

    10.2 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.1 9.9

    savings market consumer credit

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    regular sharesone-year certificatesNew auto loan (4 yr fixed)

    May ’20Apr ’20Mar ’20Feb ’20Jan ’20Dec ’19Nov ’19Oct ’19Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19

    3.87 4.29 4.29

    5.11 5.48

    5.02

    4.50

    4.04 4.02 4.01 3.95

    0.270.30 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.26

    3.92

    1.54

    2.03 2.04 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.96 1.70

    1.60

    4.69

    Non-Revolving loan market shares

    Other 44.7%

    Fin Co 16.4%

    Banks+Sav Inst(2) 25.3%

    CUs 13.6%

    Apr ’20 Non-Revolving= $3,112.9 Billion

    Other 43.9%

    Fin Co 17.0%

    Banks+ Sav Inst(2) 25.1%

    CUs 14.0%

    May ’19 Non-Revolving= $3,002.5 Billion

    “other” consists of securitized loans no longer held on lenders’ balance sheets

  • 4

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates May 2020

    National Credit Union Aggregates ($ in billions)

    Borrow & Number Memberships Date Loans Surplus Funds Assets Savings Capital (1) oth. liab of CUs (millions)

    May-20 $1,156.1 $542.1 $1,769.2 $1,504.0 $185.5 $79.8 5,369 123.5 Latest % chg, month 1.0% 6.8% 2.6% 2.6% 1.8% 5.0% -0.7% 0.2% month % chg, yr ago 6.8% 37.7% 14.7% 15.3% 9.0% 16.9% -3.2% 2.7% % chg, YTD 2.0% 38.5% 11.0% 12.0% 3.5% 11.4% -1.7% 0.6%

    Surplus Funds Apr-20 $1,144.6 $507.6 $1,724.5 $1,466.3 $182.2 $76.0 5,406 123.3 Mar-20 $1,143.8 $447.9 $1,661.3 $1,400.7 $182.8 $77.8 5,407 123.2 Feb-20 $1,140.0 $441.5 $1,648.0 $1,388.3 $181.4 $78.3 5,434 123.1 Jan-20 $1,137.4 $407.4 $1,609.2 $1,358.8 $180.3 $70.0 5,438 123.0 Dec-19 $1,133.6 $391.5 $1,593.5 $1,342.7 $179.1 $71.6 5,460 122.8 Nov-19 $1,124.7 $407.2 $1,597.5 $1,344.8 $177.7 $75.0 5,490 122.5 Previous Oct-19 $1,119.4 $388.5 $1,575.8 $1,324.4 $177.3 $74.0 5,503 122.2 twelve Sep-19 $1,112.9 $383.7 $1,565.3 $1,315.1 $176.5 $73.7 5,506 122.0 months Aug-19 $1,106.6 $392.3 $1,567.4 $1,319.6 $174.9 $72.9 5,518 121.7 Jul-19 $1,097.3 $376.9 $1,542.5 $1,298.9 $172.4 $71.2 5,530 121.2 Jun-19 $1,090.9 $388.5 $1,547.0 $1,302.7 $172.2 $72.1 5,534 120.7 May-19 $1,082.8 $393.6 $1,543.1 $1,304.7 $170.1 $68.3 5,548 120.3

    2017 $978.4 $367.9 $1,404.0 $1,181.0 $149.9 $73.1 $5,800.0 $113.6 2016 $889.5 $374.6 $1,317.7 $1,114.4 $139.4 $63.9 6,022 109.2 2015 $804.9 $369.2 $1,227.8 $1,036.3 $130.9 $60.6 6,236 105.0 2014 $728.9 $369.2 $1,144.7 $970.4 $123.5 $50.8 6,51