monthly credit union estimates ... 1 monthly credit union estimates april 2020 distribution of...

April 2020

MONTHLY CREDIT UNION EST IMATES

Prepared June 4, 2020 by Credit Union National Association Economics and Statistics Department

cuna.org/mcue

ii

Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2020

Period YTD Growth

YTD Interest Rate Averages

Long-term Short-term Difference

Loans Savings 10-yr. Treasury Federal Funds

Rate (Long-Short)

Apr ’20 1.0% 9.2% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Apr ’19 1.0% 3.7% 2.62% 2.41% 0.21%

Apr ’18 2.3% 3.0% 2.79% 1.51% 1.28%

Apr ’17 2.7% 3.8% 2.41% 0.75% 1.66%

Apr ’16 2.4% 4.3% 1.89% 0.36% 1.53%

Loans Credit union loans outstanding grew 0.1% in April, compared to a 0.3% increase in March and a 0.6% increase in April of 2019. Fixed-rate mortgages led loan growth during the month, rising 1.2%. On the decline during the month were new auto loans (-0.3%), adjustable-rate mortgages (-0.6%), used auto loans (-0.8%), home equity loans (-1.2%), unsecured personal loans (-1.5%), other mortgage loans (-2.2%), and credit card loans (-4.3%).

Savings Credit union savings balances increased 4.7% in April, compared to a 0.9% increase in March and a 0.6% decrease in April of 2019. Share drafts led savings growth during the month, rising 11.2%, followed by regular share (7.4%), money market accounts (2.3%), and individual retirement accounts (0.5%). One-year certificates declined during April (-0.3%).

Asset quality Credit unions’ 60+ day delinquency increased to 0.7% in April.

Liquidity The loan-to-savings ratio decreased from 81.7% in March to 78.1% in April. The liquidity ratio (the ratio of surplus funds maturing in less than one year to borrowings plus other liabilities) increased from 17.0% in March to 19.8% in April.

Memberships Total credit union memberships grew 0.03% during April to 123.3 million.

Capital The movement’s overall capital-to-asset decreased to 10.7% in April. The total dollar amount of capital increased 0.7% to $184.2 billion.

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Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2020

CHARTS

Distribution of Credit Union Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Distribution of Credit Union Loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Credit Union Liquidity Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Distribution of Surplus Funds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Credit Union Capital Ratio and Delinquency . . . . . . . . 2

Credit Union Auto Loan and Savings Rates . . . . . . . . . . 3

Non-revolving Loan Market Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Savings & Consumer Credit Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

TABLES

National Credit Union Aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

National Credit Union Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

National Credit Union Loan Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

National Credit Union Income and Expense Ratios . . . 8

Credit Union & Household Savings Market Data . . . . . 9

Credit Union & Consumer Credit Market Data . . . . . . 10

The estimates in this report are based on information from a monthly sample of credit unions and are revised whenever more complete data are available. The estimates have been revised to reflect benchmark data as of December 2019.

Look for the May 2020 edition of Monthly Credit Union Estimates during the last week of June.

© Copyright 2019 by Credit Union National Association Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

1

Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2020

Distribution of credit union savings

Distribution of credit union loans

IRAs 5.7%

MMAs 20.1%

Certs 20.3%

Share Drafts 17.0%

Reg/Other 36.9%

IRAs 6.2%

MMAs 20.7%

Certs 20.4%

Share Drafts 14.5%

Reg/Other 38.2%

Apr ’20 Savings = $1,465.9 Billion Apr ’19 Savings = $1,288.1 Billion

Apr ’20 Loans = $1,144.5 Billion Apr ’19 Loans = $1,076.0 Billion

Other 5.4%Home Equity

5.0% Sec Mort

2.9%

1st Mort Adj 10.2%

1st Mort Fixed 34.0%

Unsec 9.4%

Used Auto 20.3%

New Auto 12.8%

Other 6.1%Home Equity

5.4% Sec Mort

3.1%

1st Mort Adj 11.3%

1st Mort Fixed 29.5%

Unsec 9.9%

Used Auto 20.9%

New Auto 13.8%

(1) Some credit unions sweep share draft balances weekly to reduce reserve requirements. This causes a distortion (i.e. total share draft balances appear smaller than they otherwise would be) in months ending on Friday.

2

Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2020

Maturity of surplus funds Dec 2019 vs. Dec 2018 (All Credit Unions) (sum of cash plus investments)

Credit union liquidity flows Changes during the period

Capital ratio and delinquency

3-10 yrs 22.4%

1-3 yrs 23.9%

10 yrs 1.5%

3-10 yrs 26.2%

1-3 yrs 24.9%

10 yrs 1.1%

Dec ’19 Dec ’18

0

1

2

3

delinquency rate

Apr ’20Mar ’20Feb ’20Jan ’20Dec ’19Nov ’19Oct ’19Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19Apr ’19

loan delinquency as % of total loans

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

capital/assets

% captial ratio (excl loss allowance)

11.0% 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.0

10.7%

0.60% 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.70 0.70 0.64 0.63 0.69% 0.70

$0

50

100

150

$200

investmentssavingsloans

from 1 year agofrom 6 months agofrom 3 months ago

for complete data, see page 5

101.04

25.18

141.43

119.97

Apr ’20

B ill

io ns

o f

d ol

la rs

68.52

107.07

$7.16

177.77

$126.35

National Totals

Dec 2019 Total Surplus Funds= $383.68 Billion Dec 2018 Total Surplus Funds= $354.66 Billion

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Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2020

Credit union auto loan and savings rates

Savings & Consumer Credit Market Share

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

savings market

Apr ’20Mar ’20Feb ’20Jan ’20Dec ’19Nov ’19Oct ’19Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19Apr ’19 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

consumer creditfor complete data, see pages 9 & 10

10.3 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3

11.611.511.511.511.611.711.5 11.711.511.611.7 11.6

10.2 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.1

savings market consumer credit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

regular sharesone-year certificatesNew auto loan (4 yr fixed)

Apr ’20Mar ’20Feb ’20Jan ’20Dec ’19Nov ’19Oct ’19Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19Apr ’19

4.30 4.29 4.29

5.11 5.48

5.02

4.50

4.04 4.02 4.01 3.95

0.30 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.26

3.92

2.00 2.03 2.04 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.96 1.70 1.60

4.69

Non-Revolving loan market shares

Other 44.8%

Fin Co 16.4%

Banks+Sav Inst(2) 25.2%

CUs 13.6%

Mar ’20 Non-Revolving= $3,139.3 Billion

Other 44.3%

Fin Co 16.9%

Banks+ Sav Inst(2) 24.8%

CUs 14.0%

Apr ’19 Non-Revolving= $2,994.7 Billion

“other” consists of securitized loans no longer held on lenders’ balance sheets

4

Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2020

National Credit Union Aggregates ($ in billions)

Borrow & Number Memberships Date Loans Surplus Funds Assets Savings Capital (1) oth. liab of CUs (millions)

Apr-20 $1,144.5 $508.5 $1,725.9 $1,465.9 $184.2 $75.8 5,406 123.3 Latest % chg, month 0.1% 13.5% 3.9% 4.7% 0.7% -2.6% 0.0% 0.0% month % chg, yr ago 6.4% 33.1% 13.2% 13.8% 9.6% 11.8% -2.7% 2.7% % chg, YTD 1.0% 29.9% 8.3% 9.2% 2.8% 5.8% -1.0% 0.4%

Surplus Funds Mar-20 $1,143.8 $447.9 $1,661.3 $1,400.7 $182.8 $77.8 5,407 123.2 Feb-20 $1,140.0 $441.5 $1,648.0 $1,388.3 $181.4 $78.3 5,434 123.1 Jan-20 $1,137.4 $407.4 $1,609.2 $1,358.8 $180.3 $70.0 5,438 123.0 Dec-19 $1,133.6 $391.5 $1,593.5 $1,342.7 $179.1 $71.6 5,460 122.8 Nov-19 $1,124.7 $407.2 $1,597.5 $1,344.8 $177.7 $75.0 5,490 122.5 Oct-19 $1,119.4 $388.5 $1,575.8 $1,324.4 $177.3 $74.0 5,503 122.2 Previous Sep-19 $1,112.9 $383.7 $1,565.3 $1,315.1 $176.5 $73.7 5,506 122.0 twelve Aug-19 $1,106.6 $392.3 $1,567.4 $1,319.6 $174.9 $72.9 5,518 121.7 months Jul-19 $1,097.3 $376.9 $1,542.5 $1,298.9 $172.4 $71.2 5,530 121.2 Jun-19 $1,090.9 $388.5 $1,547.0 $1,302.7 $172.2 $72.1 5,534 120.7 May-19 $1,082.8 $393.6 $1,543.1 $1,304.7 $170.1 $68.3 5,548 120.3 Apr-19 $1,076.0 $382.1 $1,524.0 $1,288.1 $168.1 $67.8 5,554 120.0

2017 $978.4 $367.9 $1,404.0 $1,181.0 $149.9 $73.1 $5,800.0 $113.6 2016 $889.5 $374.6 $1,317.7 $1,114.4 $139.4 $63.9 6,022 109.2 2015 $804.9 $369.2 $1,227.8 $1,036.3 $130.9 $60.6 6,236 105.0 2014 $728.9 $369.2 $1,144.7 $970.4 $123.5 $50.8 6,513 101.5 2013 $660.1 $381.0 $1,083.7