Climate variability Climate variability and food security and food security

in the Nile Basin region: in the Nile Basin region: challenges and opportunities challenges and opportunities

3rd Nile Basin Basin Development Forum (NBDF)3rd Nile Basin Basin Development Forum (NBDF)Kigali – RwandaKigali – Rwanda27 October 201127 October 2011

Ana Elisa CascãoAna Elisa CascãoStockholm International Water InstituteStockholm International Water InstituteRw

anda

Rwan

da

Current agriculture-related challengesCurrent agriculture-related challenges• Agriculture: backbone of Nile political economy• Agriculture: main source of livelihoods and

employment (and often GDP)

• Generalised food insecurity• Dependence on food aid/agriculture exports• Low level of inter-basin agricultural trade

• National-based agricultural agendas• Agriculture at regional level: extremely

politicised issue!

Suda

nSu

dan

Current climate-related challengesCurrent climate-related challenges

Existing Existing climate variability:climate variability:

• Uneven rainfall patterns• Drought-prone regions• Inefficient agriculture

practices• Weak infrastructure

(reservoirs, irrigation systems,...)

• Blue water: Blue water: enough for all?• Green water: Green water: great potential, but how to quantify and manage?

Keny

aKe

nya

[Future] climate change [Future] climate change and its impacts on agricultureand its impacts on agriculture

• More rainfall variability?/ Less water availability? IMPACTS?

• Rainfed agriculture and livestock – at risk!• Irrigated agriculture – underdeveloped potential• Solution: improved rainfed + supplementary irrigation + livestock

management?

• Solutions:- produce less...- produce differently...- trade more...

a) Regional division of labour;?b) Cash-crops for food-crops?

EthiopiaEthiopia

Huge agricultural opportunities:Huge agricultural opportunities:production + tradeproduction + trade

• Regional/Global ‘breadbasket’ potential• Fertile land and water resources availability

• Attractive for cash-crop investors• Increasing foreign land acquisitions (pros

and cons)

• Potential for regional agricultural market • Regional ‘virtual water’ market

• Division of labour: where and when to produce and buy/sell?

South SudanSouth Sudan

Regional cooperation on Regional cooperation on agriculture:what future?agriculture:what future?• Past: Past: relevance of agriculture in the NBI agenda and projects on-

the-ground (SAPs)?

• Present: Present: agriculture development is still a politically sensitive issue

• Short-term future: Short-term future: what will be the agricultural functions of the future Nile Basin Commission?

• Long-term future: Long-term future: how to incorporate growing climate how to incorporate growing climate variability in the Nile Basin region?variability in the Nile Basin region?

Uga

nda

Uga

nda

‘‘Institutionalising’ agriculture Institutionalising’ agriculture at the regional levelat the regional level

• Role and functions of the future Nile Basin Commission? (based on the CFA)

• Role:• Providing guidelines?• Regulator? Watchdog?• Developmental?

• Functions (what priority?):• Policy Formulation and Cooperation• Knowledge Management• Basin Planning• Market Development

Egyp

tEg

ypt

Should it be the NBC

or a REC performing

these functions?

Thanks for your attention!

ana.cascao@siwi.org

Tanz

ania

Tanz

ania