s&p 500 forward earnings & the economy - yardeni … of contents table of contentstable of...

Market Briefing:S&P 500 Forward Earnings &

the EconomyYardeni Research, Inc.

July 18, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

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Mali Quintana480-664-1333

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Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

July 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles 3S&P 500 Forward & Operating Earnings 4Forward Earnings & World Exports 5Forward Earnings & OECD Production 6Forward Earnings & US Leading Indicators 7Forward Earnings & US Coincident Indicators 8Forward Earnings & US Business Sales 9Forward Earnings & Production 10Forward Earnings & Employment 11Forward Earnings, Orders & Shipments 12Forward Earnings & Capital Spending 13-14Forward Earnings & US Exports 15Forward Earnings & ISM 16Forward Earnings, Jobless Claims, & Spot Prices 17Forward Earnings & Trade Weighted Dollar 18

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930

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Jun

9596

97

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99 00

01 0203

04

05

06

07

0809

10

11

12

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data)(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)

Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*

12-month forward**

* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February.** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.

*** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930

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Q1

1314

15 16 1718

19

Actual 4Q sum***

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Figure 1.

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199510

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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data)(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)

Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*

12-month forward**

Actual 4Q sum***

* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February.** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.

*** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993 then Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 2.

S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles

/ July 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy www.yardeni.com


86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

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190

Q1

7/12

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL (Thomson Reuters data)(dollars per share)

Earnings Per Share

Operating** (4Q sum) (140.12)Forward* (169.79)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 3.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210

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Q1

7/11

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL (Thomson Reuters data)(dollars per share)

Earnings Per Share

Operating Earnings(4Q sum) (140.12)

Forward Earnings*(pushed 52-weeks ahead) (169.79)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s until Q4-1993, then Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 4.

S&P 500 Forward & Operating Earnings



79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

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190

0

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12

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20

247/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD EXPORTS

World Exports Value(trillion dollars, annualized)

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 5.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020

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7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD EXPORTS

World Exports Volume(2000=100)

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy (CPB), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 6.

Forward Earnings & World Exports



79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

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Apr

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Industrial Production: OECD(2005=100)

Forward Earnings*


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Figure 7.

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD EXPORTS(yearly percent change)

Industrial Production: OECD(2005=100)

Forward Earnings*


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Figure 8.

Forward Earnings & OECD Production



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

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May

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Leading EconomicIndicators

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.

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Figure 9.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS(yearly percent change)

US Leading Economic Indicators

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.

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Figure 10.

Forward Earnings & US Leading Indicators



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

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May

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

US CoincidentEconomic Indicators(2004=100)

Forward Earnings*


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Figure 11.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60

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7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS(yearly percent change)

US Coincident Economic Indicators

Forward Earnings*


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Figure 12.

Forward Earnings & US Coincident Indicators



92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020

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7/12S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES

US Business Sales**(billion dollars, saar)

Forward Earnings*(weekly, dollars per share)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.** Manufacturing and trade sales.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 13.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50

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May

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES(yearly percent change)

US Business Sales**

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.** Manufacturing and trade sales.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 14.

Forward Earnings & US Business Sales



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

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7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Forward Earnings*

US Industrial Production(2007=100)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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Figure 15.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50

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Jun

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)

Forward Earnings*

US Industrial Production

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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Figure 16.

Forward Earnings & Production



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT(yearly percent change)

Forward Earnings*

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 17.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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Jun

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS(yearly percent change)

Aggregate Weekly Hours**

Forward Earnings*

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.** Production & nonsupervisory employees.

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Figure 18.

Forward Earnings & Employment



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030

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May

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS

Total New Factory Orders(trillion dollars, saar)

Forward Earnings*(weekly)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 19.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030

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3.2

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY SHIPMENTS

Total New Factory Shipments(trillion dollars, saar)

Forward Earnings*(weekly)


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Figure 20.

Forward Earnings, Orders & Shipments



88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020

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7/12S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING

Real Capital Spending**(billion dollars, saar)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*(weekly)

** Nonresidential fixed investment including equipment, intellectual property products, and structures.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 21.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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Jun

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING(yearly percent change)

Real Capital Spending** (7.1)

Forward Earnings* (21.4)

** Nonresidential fixed investment in real GDP.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 22.

Forward Earnings & Capital Spending



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030

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May

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS

Nondefense Capital Goods OrdersExcluding Aircraft(billion dollars, saar)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*(weekly)

* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensusearnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 23.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS(yearly percent change)

Nondefense Capital Goods OrdersExcluding Aircraft

Forward Earnings*


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Figure 24.

Forward Earnings & Capital Spending



86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2015

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1757/12S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS

Forward Earnings*(dollars per share)

US Merchandise Exports(billions of dollars, sa)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 25.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50

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25

50

May

7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(yearly percent change)

Forward Earnings* (21.6)

US Merchandise Exports (13.9)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 26.

Forward Earnings & US Exports



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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7/12

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX

ISM ManufacturingPurchasing Managers Index

Forward Earnings*(yearly percent change)

Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.

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Figure 27.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & ISM PRICES

ISM Manufacturing Price Index

Forward Earnings*(yearly percent change)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

Forward Earnings & ISM



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2050

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Initial Unemployment Claims(4-week moving average, thousands, sa)

Forward Earnings*(yearly percent change, inverted scale)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: US Department of Labor and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

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7/17

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

Forward Earnings, Jobless Claims, & Spot Prices



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-75

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(yearly percent change)

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale) (0.6)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings** (21.6)

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.

** Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and JP Morgan.

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Figure 31.

Forward Earnings & Trade Weighted Dollar



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