This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

David Cappuccio

Technology Trends You Can’t Afford to Ignore

@GARTNER_INC

Gartner at a Glance

800 Analysts

12,000 Client

Organizations

290,000 Client

Interactions

Vertical Coverage

in Nine Industries

5,500 Benchmarks

10,200 Media

Inquiries

World's Largest

Community of CIOs

64 Conferences

76% of Global 500

1,700 Consulting

Engagements

Clients in 85 Countries

70% of Fortune 1000

480 Consultants

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

David Cappuccio

Keynote Session: Ten Critical

Trends and Technologies

Impacting IT Over the Next 5 Years

Did You Know – In the Last Minute

• There were 204 million emails sent

• 61,000 hours of music on Pandora

• 20 million photo views and 3 million uploads on Flickr

• 100,000 tweets

• 6 million views and 277,000 Facebook Logins

• 2+ million Google searches

Access to Everything, All the Time, From Any Device, From Anywhere

―Big‖ Context

Pervasive Access

Extreme Behavior

Global Class Delivery

The Nexus and Its Impact on I&O

Trends You Need to Watch

1. Organizational Entrenchment and Disruptions

2. Software Networks

3. Bigger Data and Storage

4. Hybrid Cloud Services

5. Client & Server Architectures

6. The Internet of Things

7. IT/OT and Appliance Madness

8. Operational Complexity

9. Virtual Data Centers

10. IT Demand

Did You Know?

• By 2014, 30% of organizations using SaaS Operations Management tools will switch to On-Premise due to poor service levels.

• By 2014 market consolidation displaces up to 20% of the top 100 IT services providers

Organizational Entrenchment and Disruptions

Drivers for Organizational Disruption

• Significant Growth in IT Complexity

• Real Time Support

• Faster Change Cycles

• Shorter Development Timelines

• End User Driving IT

• Reduced Budgets

• Cloud Services

• Skills Shift

7

What is Software Defined Network?

• A new way to operate networks

• Moves control plane (and potentially the value) from individual devices to a central controller

- Abstracts network layer

- Allows configuration of the network from one place not each individual device

• Key element of RTI and dynamic workloads

• Note: Not a set of APIs to manage today’s network

8

Bandw

idth

Gro

wth

Why do We Care About SDN’s?

• Reduce the time required to provision network resources for a new VM from weeks to minutes.

• There has been a major shift in application requirements - virtualization

• Data center traffic patterns are changing from traditional ―north-south‖ to ―east-west‖ flows

• Workloads may cross Data Center boundaries

• Potential for significant

organizational disruption.

9

Did You Know?

By 2015, big data demand will generate 1 million jobs in the Global 1000 but only one-

third of those jobs will be filled

Big Data and Storage

Bigger Data & Storage Are You Prepared for the Tsunami?

• Unprecedented data growth

• Audit, archive and recovery are increasingly complex

• Analytics and pattern recognition are key initiatives

• Internally and externally focused

• Social awareness and exploitation

How does it affect you? • Growth continues — regardless of

budget constraints

• Demand-driven; more access creates more data — this will get worse

• Compliance, backup, audit, security

• Analytics

Actions/Issues: • Review storage — plan for restricted

growth

• Evaluate all data inputs, and keep only what you need

• Segment and prioritize

Critical Time Frame

2012 to 2015

SRM & Backup SRM & Backup

Tiering

11010011100010100001010101011100010100100100110101110011001100010001000100001110011000111100011000101011001010011000010110011101010100110111001001000101100101110110111010101101100100100101101010110011101010100110111001001000101100101110110111010101100110001010100101011001111001001110011010101111101010001010101000110110011101010100110111001001001

Deduplication De-duplication

Thin Provisioning Compression

HSM

Virtualization

Tiering

Hybrid Cloud Services

How does it affect you? • Common services are available now

• Private clouds improve agility and will dominate

• Integrate public services with private delivery

• Ignore the hype — focus on results

Next Monday: • Evaluate the commodity services you

provide and what can move to the cloud

• Evaluate the cloud delivery model for internal use

• Categorize applications/services based on SLAs and risk before proceeding

Critical Time Frame

2012 to 2015

9

Public Cloud Computing Services

Enterprise Private Cloud

• Composed of services from multiple providers

• Increased capacity or capability

• Increased complexity, reduced cost

It’s Not About Technology

Hybrid Data Centers Will be in Your Future

• Granular growth strategy

• Move non-critical work to free up space, or

• Move critical work to improve availability

• Use colocation or Cloud as a growth vehicle

• Incremental Opex growth, long term capital deferral.

13

Did You Know?

90% of enterprises will bypass broad scale deployment of Windows 8

Client and Server Architectures

Client and Server Architectures

How does it affect you? • Should you exit all or parts of client

management services?

• You HAVE to let tablets in

• Hosted virtual desktops: HUGE data center and network impacts

• New apps and delivery models: Do you need an app store?

Actions / Issues: • Determine who needs what

• Address tablet security

• What to do about Office?

Critical Time Frame

2012 to 2015

• One size doesn’t fit all

• One OS does not fit all

• Form factors are not static

• Think image, not machine

• Bring/buy your own device(s)?

Client and Server Architectures

How does it affect you?

• Server architectures changing

• No longer workload dependent

• Server is a component of the architecture, not the key

Actions / Issues:

• Consider workload need and density tradeoffs

• Don’t assume blades are the evolutionary step

• Server decisions should be complementary to overall strategy

Critical Time Frame

2013 to 2015

• Flash cache – relieve memory bottleneck

• In memory DBMS

• Live migration – application independence

• Network controllers

• Appliances – Just enough OS

• Specialty engines

• Extreme low energy servers

Did You Know?

Wearable smart electronics in shoes, ―tattoos‖ and accessories emerges as a ten

billion dollar industry by 2016

The Internet of Things

The Internet of Things

• Shrinking "Smart" Objects

- Cheap, small devices

- Everything gets a radio

- Self-assembling mesh networks

- Location aware (lat., long., alt., time)

- Plum size >>>>> Smart Pills

• Delivering an "Always On" Society

I'm Here!

Edge node

Sensor node

802.11 AnchorWiMAX or wired

backhaul

10 – 100m

km

The Internet of Things

Not a single technology, but a concept enabled by multiple technology advances

• Driving the Trend: Embedded sensors in devices and objects, image recognition, augmented reality, Near Field Communication.

• Social Impact: Situational decision support and learning, (even) more transparency.

• Business Opportunities: Real-time decision support for customers and employees; remote sensing, services on top of connected products.

Source: Violet

Appliance Madness

• Proliferation of point solutions – easy deployment

• Embedded OS, locked down environment

• Just enough operating environment

• Contributes to the complexity conundrum

Physical Virtual Hybrid

Appliances – Hardware, Software, Virtual Alternatives

• Software/services packaging that addresses specific workload

• May be complete embedded stack (including "Just Enough OS")

• May be executed via a VM

• May be executed as part of a cloud IaaS/SaaS service

• May be hosted by an equally dedicated hardware device (hybrid solution)

• May be dedicated ―pizza‖ box

• Easy configuration, easy deployment

Did You Know?

Through 2014, employee-owned devices will be compromised by malware at more than

double the rate of corporate-owned devices.

Operational Complexity

Operational Complexity

Glass' Law (applied to IT): (Source: Roger Sessions — ObjectWatch)

For every 25% increase in functionality in a system …

There is a 100% increase in the complexity of that system

Operational Complexity Conundrum: You Rarely Use What You Pay For!

Software Complexity Oracle 10g database (Source: George Candea) Table, system parameters: 1,677

Hardware Complexity Cisco Catalyst 6500 Switch (Source: Cisco) Installation, references: 2,390 pages

Combinatorial Complexity Exchange on VMware (Source: Veloxum) Performance/capacity settings: 115 Combinations of settings: Millions

Evolution Towards the Virtual Data Center

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Sh

are

Server Virtualization Growth

Share of non-virtual server OS instances

Source: Gartner Forecasts 2012

Virtualization Forces the Logical vs. Physical View

1. Virtualization creates many inexpensive resources

2. Resources are distributed to workloads

3. Resources can be distributed across DCs and geographies

4. Workloads can move to just good enough resources at high utilization

5. Logical pooling can be re-calibrated – constantly

6. Standardization and OSS can enable mix/match best of breed vs. one-vendor choice

Virtual Data Centers

• Vertical skill sets dominate

• Horizontal problem ownership

• Complexity increases resolution

times and masks ownership

• Cloud services and hybrid

environments exacerbate the

support issue

• Workloads and issues are no

longer confined to a known

environment

What to Do?

1. Enable staff innovation

2. Embrace the collective

3. Share problem ownership

4. Reward lateral thinking

Did You Know?

By 2017, 40% of enterprise contact information will have leaked into Facebook via employee mobile device collaboration

applications

IT Demand

IT Demand

• Server workloads: 10% AAGR

• Network bandwidth: 35% AAGR

• Storage capacity: 50% AAGR

• Power costs: 20% AAGR

How does it affect you?

• Throwing more capacity at demand won’t work

• Need to optimize capacity in new ways: virtualization, data de-duplication, bandwidth prioritization schemes

• Data center power, cooling and space: major constraints

• Policy-based infrastructure?

Actions / Issues:

• How must I&O attributes change to meet business needs?

• How can we best use new trends and techniques?

Critical Time Frame

2012 to 2015

Service Quality

Agility

Economics

IT Demand — Away From IT

Today's employees can access …

• Over 1.5 billion Web pages (and growing)

• 450,000 iPhone apps

• Over 200,000 Android apps

• 10,500 radio stations

• 5,500 magazines

• Over 300 TV networks

Recommendations

Prepare for organizational disruptions – externally and internally generated

Software networks are coming – begin updating skills now.

Hybrid cloud services are evolving rapidly, evaluate based on need, price, value, viability

The Internet of Things – IP address will be everywhere – IT must prepare to support them.

Operational complexity will increase – reduce it via standard platforms and process.

Your Action Plan

CIOs and enterprise architects should …

• Monday Morning:

- Assess all projects and their relationships — look horizontally.

- Prioritize based on risk, reward and long-term impact.

• Your Next 90 Days:

- Look again at capacity planning — without presumptions.

- Assess staff skills based on breadth of knowledge and value to the business, not just value to IT.

• Your Next 12 Months:

- Review opportunities to converge networks, infrastructures and skill sets.

- Establish the impact on other business plans.

Related Gartner Research

Emerging Technology Analysis: OpenFlow and Software-Defined Networking Akshay K. Sharma (G00233227)

'Big Data' and Content Will Challenge IT Across the Board Mark Beyer, David Cearley (G00231456)

The Internet of Everything Mark Raskino, Hung LeHong (G00234337)

Hype Cycle for Cloud Services Michele Cantara (G00234256)

For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or e-mail us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.

Gartner Symposium/ITxpo: The world's most important

gathering of CIOs and senior IT executives

33

• Hundreds of analyst-led sessions, workshops, how-to clinics and more

• Role-based tracks designed to address your key priorities and challenges

• Immediately actionable take-aways—a clear action plan for the next three, six and 12 months

• Mastermind Interview Keynotes with industry leaders

• ITxpo exhibit floor with hundreds of top solution providers and exciting startups

October 29 – 31 São Paulo, Brazil

November 5 – 8 Barcelona, Spain

November 12 – 15 Gold Coast, Australia

August 28 – 30, Cape Town, Africa

October 3 – 5 Tokyo, Japan

October 10 – 12 Goa, India

October 21 – 25 Orlando, FL

Visit gartner.com/events

• Visit gartner.com/webinars

– Today's presentation will be available in

24 hours

– Check out the schedule of upcoming Gartner

webinars (plus on-demand webinars) and don't

forget to share these resources with your

colleagues

• Contact your Gartner account executive with any

additional questions, comments or for a

complimentary copy of today's presentation

Simple steps for increasing the value

of today's webinar experience

34