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LONG RANGE FORECASTSLONG-RANGE FORECASTSCITY OF MISSISSAUGA 2006 – 2031

December 2008

HEMSONC o n s u l t i n g L t d.

30 St. Patrick Street, Suite 1000, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 3A3Facsimile 416-595-7144 Telephone 416-593-5090

E-Mail: [email protected]

December 16, 2008

Ms. Angela DietrichManager, Research and Special ProjectsPolicy Planning DivisionCity of Mississauga300 City Centre DriveMississauga, OntarioL5B 3C1

Dear Ms. Dietrich:

Re: Population, Household and EmploymentForecast Update for the City of Mississauga

Hemson Consulting is pleased to submit our report, Long-RangeForecasts, City of Mississauga, 2006–2031. This report providesan update of the 2005 forecasts prepared for the City based onrecent demographic and economic trends and results of the 2006Census. More importantly, it accounts for policy both at theProvincial and City level which seek to concentrate significantadditional development in Mississauga through intensification

in the Urban Growth Centre (incorporating the City Centre)and in other appropriate locations in the City.

Mississauga has now moved beyond the period where it isprimarily relying on greenfield lands to accommodate growthand development. The transition to a more mature and slower-growing urban area means an increased municipal focus onhigher density housing, office development and transitinvestment.

We hope that this report will assist City department decision-makers in understanding the planning, financial and servicedelivery implications of future growth in Mississauga and in thepreparation of the new official plan.

Yours Truly,

HEMSON CONSULTING LTD.

Russell B. Mathew, MRICS, MCIP, RPP, PLEPartner

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report provides the results of the long-term population,housing and employment forecasts for the City of Mississaugato 2031. The assignment is an update of previous Mississaugaforecasts and takes into account the most recent 2006 Censusand other relevant information. Two growth scenarios havebeen prepared, reflecting varying degrees of intensificationand redevelopment in the community:

• The “reference” scenario is considered the most likelygrowth scenario and is consistent with Provincial visionfor growth set out in the Growth Plan for the GreaterGolden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan);

• The “high” scenario reflects a reasonable upper rangethat could be achieved through a more significant shiftto metropolitan-wide demand for higher density formsand policy and financial support to improve the City'scompetitiveness for such development.

The key findings are as follows:

• Under the reference growth scenario, the City ofMississauga is forecast to grow to a total population ofapproximately 780,000 by 2031. In the short term, mostof the population growth will occur in areas withremaining greenfield land supply, such as Central ErinMills, Churchill Meadows, Hurontario and East Credit.

• After the City’s greenfield land supply is built-out inapproximately 2011, however, population growth will beaccommodated primarily through intensification.Mississauga will become more focussed on non-familyhouseholds and higher density housing forms,particularly apartment development in the City Centreand Urban Growth Centre (UGC).

• Average household size is forecast to decline over theforecast period, with the result that many of the City’solder residential communities will experience a loss ofpopulation to 2031. Some communities, however, maybegin to “turn over” as younger families replace theelderly in existing ground-related units. Others are alsolikely to experience rising demand for intensification andredevelopment, particularly some of the oldercommunities along the lakeshore.

• Under the high growth forecast, the City of Mississaugacould potentially grow to a total population ofapproximately 815,000 by 2031. If the City ofMississauga is interested in targeting such a highpopulation forecast, a greater shift towards higher densityunits would need to be achieved since there are fewinitiatives that could reasonably be implemented toincrease the greenfield land supply.

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• Under the reference employment growth scenario, theCity of Mississauga is forecast to grow to over 500,000jobs by 2031. As with population growth, in the shortterm the most rapid employment growth is forecast tooccur in areas with an available land supply toaccommodate development.

• The most rapid employment growth is anticipated tooccur in the Meadowvale Business Park, Gateway andAirport Corporate. After 2011, the rate of employmentgrowth will slow and its composition will shift towards agreater proportion of major office developmentaccommodated in the Employment Districts and CityCentre. Some of the City’s older employment areas areanticipated to experience a gradual decline inemployment.

• Under the high employment growth scenario, the Cityof Mississauga could potentially grow to approximately520,000 jobs by 2031. If the City of Mississauga isinterested in targeting such a high employment forecast,a higher level of major office development would need tobe accommodated.

• The high growth scenario would involve more growth inpopulation-related employment activities, primarilyrelated to Mississauga’s evolving role as a central place.The high growth scenario also anticipates a greater levelof employment intensification, particularly in the largeand established areas around the Lester B. PearsonInternational Airport (LBPIA).

Both the reference population and employment forecast arebased on the same underlying principle — that growth willoccur most rapidly in areas where land is available. Older areaswith little or no opportunities for greenfield development willexperience slow or declining levels of growth. For the City ofMississauga to target the high growth, specific actions willneed to be taken:

• In order to attract additional residential development tothe City, the appeal of high density living will need to beenhanced. All aspects of the urban environment willneed to be maintained and upgraded, including thetransportation system, parks, open space, streetscapes,cultural amenities and the arts; and

• In order to retain and improve the City's economiccompetitiveness, strong policy and financial support willneed to be provided. Employment intensification, inparticular, will require more than just planning policy —significant investment will be required to ease congestionand put redevelopment sites on an equal competitivefooting with greenfield land.

Should the City choose to target the high growth forecast, itis clear that senior levels of government will need to be apartner in implementation. Provincial investment intransportation infrastructure will be required, particularly inthe areas around LBPIA. Provincial investment in communityinfrastructure will also be required, including hospitals, healthcare and social service facilities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

A. Assignment Is an Update of Previous Mississauga Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1B. Forecast Scenarios Reflect Varying Degrees of Intensification and Redevelopment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2C. Key Factor Affecting Future Growth in the City of Mississauga Is Land Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

II INTENSIFICATION WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN ACCOMMODATING FUTURE GROWTH IN THE CITY OF MISSISSAUGA . . 5

A. GTAH Is Forecast to Grow Steadily in Population and Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5B. Future Growth Potential in Mississauga Is Determined Largely by Land Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6C. Two Growth Scenarios Have Been Prepared for Consideration by the City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

III THE POPULATION OF THE CITY OF MISSISSAUGA IS FORECAST TO GROW TO 780,000 IN 2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

A. Growth Outlook in Mississauga Prepared in Metropolitan Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11B. Growth in Mississauga Is Based on Both Supply Potential and on Market Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15C. High Growth Forecast Is Based on the City Attracting More Intensification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22D. Potential Capacity Far Exceeds Any Reasonable Expectation of Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23E. Other Demographic Characteristics Indicate Gradual Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24F. Mississauga Needs to Undertake Long Term Planning for Aging of Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

IV EMPLOYMENT IS FORECAST TO GROW TO OVER 500,000 JOBS BY 2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

A. Employment in the GTAH Is Anticipated to Grow Steadily to 2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26B. Growth in Mississauga Is Based on Land Supply and Market Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29C. High Growth Forecast Is Based on the City Attracting More Offices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

V ACTIONS NEED TO BE TAKEN TO ENSURE THAT THE CITY OF MISSISSAUGA REMAINS AN ATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH DENSITY DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

A. Appeal of High Density Living Will Need to Be Enhanced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34B. Policy and Financial Support Is Required to Improve Economic Competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35C. Senior Levels of Government Need to Be a Partner in Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

I INTRODUCTION

Hemson Consulting Ltd., was retained in May 2008 to updatethe population, housing and employment forecasts for theCity of Mississauga to 2031. The forecasts have been updatedwithin the context of the forecasts shown for the Region ofPeel in the Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater GoldenHorseshoe (the Growth Plan), updated information from the2006 Census and forecasts prepared by Hemson Consultingfor the City of Mississauga in the past.1

As described in previous reports, the City of Mississauga isentering a period of transition from the rapidly growingsuburban community of the past to the more mature, fullydeveloped urban community of its future. Making thistransition will have many effects on the municipalcorporation and land use planning, in particular a greaterreliance on more intensive forms of development. Theseforecasts have been prepared to provide the City ofMississauga staff and Council with an information base thatwill help to plan ahead for these changes.

A. ASSIGNMENT IS AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUSMISSISSAUGA FORECASTS

The 2008 forecast assignment is an update of previousforecasts prepared by Hemson Consulting for the City ofMississauga including:

• The 2005 Forecast Update, which provided City staffwith updated forecast information but no report wasprepared at that time;

• Growth in a Maturing Community: Population, Householdand Employment Forecasts 2001-2031, prepared in 2003;

• Long Range Forecasts: City of Mississauga 1996 to 2031 ,prepared in 1998; and

• A set of long-range forecasts prepared for the Region ofPeel, City of Mississauga and City of Brampton in 1995as a joint effort to provide the Region and membermunicipalities with a consistent information base.

The 2008 forecasts are being prepared to provide input to thecurrent official plan update which will bring planning inMississauga into conformity with the Growth Plan. Inaddition, the forecast results are to be used as input to anumber of other City initiatives, such as the currentDevelopment Charge By-Law update and other long-terminfrastructure planning.

1The most recent forecast update is contained in Growth in aMaturing Community: Population, Household and EmploymentForecasts 2001-2031, prepared in November 2003.

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B. FORECAST SCENARIOS REFLECT VARYING DEGREESOF INTENSIFICATION AND REDEVELOPMENT

Typically in our long-range forecasting work a low, high andreference forecasts are prepared, with the low and highforecast scenarios reflecting deliberately pessimistic oroptimistic assumptions about the economic future. In theCity of Mississauga, however, the growth outlook is drivenmore by the community’s ability to accommodate moreintensive forms of development — and market demand forsuch development — than by the outlook for growth in thebroader economic region.

As a result, the two growth scenarios prepared for the 2008forecast reflect varying degrees of intensification andredevelopment over the planning period:

• The “reference” scenario is in keeping with the GrowthPlan objectives regarding intensification and the City’srole meeting Growth Plan targets set for the Region ofPeel; and

• The “high” scenario assumes a more significant shift tometropolitan-wide demand for higher density forms orthe City of Mississauga capturing a larger share of suchdevelopment.

The Reference forecast should be considered the most likelyscenario and the one that has the best fit to the variousrequirements of the Growth Plan, recognizing that many ofthe Growth Plan rules apply at the Regional level. Meetingthese rules overall will also depend on the Growth Planconformity work currently being undertaken in Bramptonand Caledon.

If the City were interested in targeting a higher level ofgrowth than indicated by the Reference Scenario, the HighScenario could be adopted as such a target. The HighScenario is constructed to reflect a reasonable upper rangethat could be achieved by the City if a number of policies andinvestments toward this end were undertaken and the marketresponded appropriately.

It is very important that both of these forecast scenarios bedistinguished from a theoretical capacity for development. Asdescribed in more detail later in the report, the theoreticaldevelopment capacity in the City of Mississauga is unlikelyto ever be achieved, and certainly not within any predictabletime period — redevelopment is always a slow and difficultprocess in urban development.

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C. KEY FACTOR AFFECTING FUTURE GROWTH IN THECITY OF MISSISSAUGA IS LAND SUPPLY

As identified in our previous forecast reports, the central issuein forecasting for the City of Mississauga is the pending buildout of the greenfield land supply, which has a number of keyplanning implications:

• The City of Mississauga has traditionally been one ofthe fastest growing communities in the GTAH,accommodating a large share of both population andemployment growth in the GTAH.

• One of the main reasons for the City’s rapid growth hasbeen a large and competitive land supply for ground-related housing and employment uses. However, as theremaining greenfield land supply builds out, the overallrate of growth will slow and the City will shift to a moremature urban community.

• New housing and employment will still be provided, butthrough more intense built forms such as apartmentsand major office buildings. Over the planning period,the focus of building activity will shift increasingly toredevelopment and intensification as opposed togreenfield land development.

• The population will also be aging, which affects thetypes of services to be delivered and also results in adeclining household size, which will have a significanteffect on existing communities.

The forecasts are have been prepared to 2031 at a City-wide,planning district and traffic zone level. Only the City-wideand planning district forecasts are addressed in this report toassist staff and Council in their consideration of broader,strategic planning issues. To assist City staff and Council withspecific infrastructure and service planning issues, theforecasts by traffic zone, watershed and other geographies areprovided in the form of digital data, similar in fashion to the2005 Forecast Update.

Throughout the report, all population figures, unlessotherwise noted, use “total population” — persons counted bythe Census of Canada plus a net undercoverage factorestimated at 4% for the 2001 and subsequent Census years.

The following report provides a summary of the updatedpopulation, household and employment forecasts for the Cityof Mississauga. As in the past, this report and the forecastthat it describes will be a key tool to assist the City inplanning for its evolution towards a more mature urbancommunity. It is organized into four chapters.

• Following this introduction, Chapter 2 describes inmore detail the key factors shaping the growth outlookin the City of Mississauga, in particular the central rolethat intensification will play in accommodating bothpopulation and employment growth.

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• Chapters 3 and 4 describe the resulting population andemployment forecasts at a City and planning districtlevel.

• The final chapter discusses some of the implications ofthe forecasts, and highlights some of the key planningissues that will need to be addressed and suggests animplementation strategy to encourage higher levels ofgrowth in the community.

As noted in our previous forecast reports, there is inherentuncertainty in forecasting because it involves looking into thefuture. Decisions that are made on the basis of these forecastsmust be undertaken with care and judgement and incorporatethe most up-to-date and certain information possible. At thesame time the forecasts and the resultant planning decisionsmust also remain focussed on the long-term trends and thelong-term outlook.

It is important to note that, as this report is being prepared,the global and national economies are in a period of greatuncertainty. Reflecting current economic conditions, theforecasts incorporate an expected period of slower growth inthe short-term, which affects the forecast results for theremainder of the 2006 to 2011 Census period. Over the longterm, however, in our view it is important to continueplanning for growth and to not let short-term cyclical trendsunduly influence the longer-term outlook.

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II INTENSIFICATION WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN ACCOMMODATING FUTURE GROWTH INTHE CITY OF MISSISSAUGA

As described in the Growth Plan, the Greater Toronto Areaand Hamilton (GTAH) is anticipated to continue to growsteadily in population and employment to 2031.Notwithstanding the current short-term economic slowdown,the principal assumption underlying the forecast is thatCanada, Ontario, the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) andthe GTAH will remain attractive locations for growth andinvestment over the long-term.1

Within the GTAH, the distribution of population andemployment growth is based on the community’s ability toaccommodate new housing, and land extensive employmentuses. In the City of Mississauga, the greenfield land supply isnearly built out, meaning that growth will be determinedlargely by the supply of land to accommodate more intensiveforms of development. The population will also continue toage, which will be a critical demographic force affectinghousehold size, housing choices and labour force participationrates, which has enormous implications for growth andplanning.

A. GTAH IS FORECAST TO GROW STEADILY INPOPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT

The Growth Plan contains a set of population and employmentallocations that municipalities in the GGH must use for long-range planning and managing growth. In total, the GrowthPlan forecasts a total of approximately 11.5 million people andand 5.6 million jobs for the GGH. This represents growth ofapproximately 3.7 million people and 1.8 million jobsbetween 2001 and 2031, or from today’s base, about 2.8million people and 1.5 million jobs.

Under the Growth Plan, future population and employment isconcentrated mainly in the GTAH, where most of thepopulation and employment already resides. Approximately75% of the total population growth and 80% of theemployment growth has been allocated to the GTAH, whichincludes the Region of Peel.

While overall employment growth fell somewhat short ofexpectations during the 2001 to 2006 period, the Growth Planforecasts incorporate the cyclical nature of the economy. Overthe period to 2031, there is no indication that the GrowthPlan forecasts are fundamentally off-track.

1The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe,Hemson Consulting Ltd, January 2005.

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B. FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL IN MISSISSAUGA ISDETERMINED LARGELY BY LAND SUPPLY

The distribution of population and employment within theGTAH is determined by the ability of each community toaccommodate certain types of development. Built form is theprimary factor which influences the distribution of growth, inparticular a community’s ability to accommodate ground-related housing and the industrial-type facilities on large sitesin suburban business park settings.

1. New Housing Growth Will Increasingly be Focussed onMedium and Higher Density Forms

The ability of a community to accommodate populationgrowth is a function of its ability to accommodate differenttypes of housing units, particularly ground-related housing andapartment units:

• Ground-related housing types require the most land fordevelopment, in particular single detached and semi-detached units on greenfield sites.

• Most apartment development does not occur on newgreenfield land but rather as redevelopment andintensification in planned nodes.

• Rowhouse development is typically split between thesetwo types of locations and is an increasingly popular builtform given that the cost of wood-frame construction isfar lower than poured-concrete apartments blocks.

The long-term expectation for housing demand in the GTAHindicates a housing preference dominated by ground-relatedunits. Because the City of Mississauga’s land supply forground-related housing is nearly depleted, new housinggrowth will increasingly be accommodated through apartmentconstruction on vacant sites, and other medium and higherdensity forms through intensification.

Like any community, there is a significant potential for siteswhere apartments and other, denser forms of housing can bebuilt through redevelopment and intensification. However,the amount of such development that actually occurs is drivenby the market — the number of people that want to live inapartments and the economics of existing uses on sites. In theCity of Mississauga, the regional demand for apartments willbe focussed in locations such as the Urban Growth Centre(UGC), including the City Centre, other smaller nodes in theCity and in other areas with intensification potential such asthe main street areas close to Lake Ontario.

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2. Employment Growth Will be Increasingly Focussed onMajor Office Development

Similar to residential growth, the City of Mississauga’s abilityto accommodate employment growth depends on land use andbuilt form, and the structure of the regional economy.

As explained in our previous reports describing futureemployment growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, theRegion of Peel and the City of Mississauga, the structure ofthe GTAH economy is overwhelmingly industrial in nature,which gives rise to strong demand for land-extensiveindustrial-type facilities engaged in a wide variety of economicactivities including manufacturing, distribution andwarehousing.

Accordingly, the location of employment growth in theGTAH is driven strongly by the availability of well-locatedgreenfield employment land, to accommodate the range ofindustrial-type buildings that dominate the land use profile ofthe regional economy. It is for this reason that the key basesfor employment forecasting are the three land-use basedcategories of employment activities:

• Major office employment is defined as employment infree-standing office buildings of 20,000 sq.ft. or greater;1

• Population-related employment is defined asemployment which provides services to a residentpopulation in retail and institutional establishments,including those who work from home; and

• Employment land employment is the range ofemployment uses in industrial-type buildings, typicallyconcentrated in business parks and other designatedemployment areas.

Because the City of Mississauga’s supply of employment landis nearly fully developed, new employment growth willincreasingly be accommodated through major officedevelopment. Similarly, the rate of population-relatedemployment growth will slow in concert with slower rates ofpopulation growth resulting from the pending build out of thesupply for ground-related units. Reduced growth rates inpopulation-related employment will be tempered somewhatby growth in metropolitan-wide population-related

1For employment forecasting and most land-use planningpurposes, major offices are traditionally defined as freestanding officebuildings greater than 20,000 net sq. ft. in size. The Growth Planuses the same expression — major office — for a different purpose. Inthe Growth Plan, major office policies address the desire to locateoffice buildings of 10,000 m2 or greater in transit-oriented locations toencourage greater transit use. Except as otherwise noted, this report’suse of major office is the 20,000 sq.ft. or more definition.

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employment, consistent with the evolving central placefunctions of the City.

The City of Mississauga already has a large office market andan established position in the regional market. Conditions arein place for the City to continue to perform well in theGTAH office market, including a large and competitiveeconomic base, many prestigious office and business parks, acentral location within the GTAH and the presence of majortransportation infrastructure.

Nevertheless, it will be important for the City of Mississaugato protect its competitive position for major offices and othertypes of employment in order to maintain and expand theeconomic base.

One of the major challenges for the City in the office marketis the location of the demand within the City. As noted in theCity’s recent office market strategy, nearly all of the new officedevelopment since the early 1990s has been occurring in theemployment districts, particularly Airport Corporate (andabutting areas in Northeast) and in Meadowvale BusinessPark. As the City is well aware from the office strategy andother work done on planning the City Centre, there aresignificant challenges in trying to encourage more officedevelopment in the UGC and other nodes and corridors.

3. Demographic Change Will Also Have SignificantPlanning Implications

The City of Mississauga and GTA have traditionally had ayounger population than the rest of Ontario because of theinflux of migrants. In the City of Mississauga, however, theaging of population will become more pronounced over timebecause it will not longer be offset by large numbers ofyounger families moving into ground-related housing.

This transition to a more “mature” community will have anumber of implications, including declining household size.Household size declines for a number of reasons includinggrowing wealth and shifting family structures, however, themajor reason for the declining average household sizes lies inthe age structure of the population.1

Declines in average household size will have a significantimpact on the existing population base, mainly that someolder residential neighbourhoods will experience a slow

1This phenomena is best understood by an example. The nearly30,000 households added to Mississauga during the rapid growthperiod between 1986 and 1991 was dominated by younger families.The peak number of children at home in this group likely occurred inthe late 1990s and, today, some adult children will have left home,others still remain. However, in another 10 years virtually all of thechildren will have left home, leaving "empty-nester" households. Thesehouseholds are then unlikely to move from the family home until theyare in their 70s, meaning sometime in the 2020s. The averagehousehold size which will have peaked at about 4 persons per unit, willbe a little less than 2 persons per unit (owing to divorce and some"early deaths") for an extended period of time.

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population decline through the forecast period. This shift willhave implications for service delivery in a range of areas suchas parks and recreation, transit and community planning.Declining household sizes will also mean that additionalhousing units will need to be added to simply maintain theexisting population. Proportionally, even more housing unitswill need to be added to accommodate growth.

From a planning and development perspective, the City’s shiftto a mature urban community is a key consideration for thelong-term growth forecast. From a housing perspective, thekey feature of the shift is that population growth willincreasingly need to be accommodated in medium and higherdensity forms through redevelopment and intensification.From an employment perspective, new jobs will increasinglybe accommodated through major office development,although given the size of the existing economic base othertypes of employment will also play a role in maintaining andgrowing the City’s employment.

C. TWO GROWTH SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN PREPAREDFOR CONSIDERATION BY THE CITY

Under the policies of the Growth Plan, municipalities in theGTAH are directed to plan for, among other matters, a morecompact urban form, “complete communities” and a greaterreliance on intensification and redevelopment. These

objectives are reflected in a set of specific intensification anddensity targets that are to be achieved on a Region-wide basis:

• A minimum of 40% of all residential units must beaccommodated within the built-up area after 2015; and

• New greenfield development must achieve a density of50 residents and jobs combined per ha.

The Growth Plan density and intensification targets are notparticularly relevant for the City of Mississauga, because thereis little greenfield land remaining. Nearly 100% of the City’snew units after 2015 will be accommodated throughintensification within the built boundary. These units,however, will play a major role in achieving the 40%intensification objective for the Region of Peel.

However, of specific relevance to the City of Mississauga isthe Growth Plan’s identification of the UGC as a focus for newinvestment, high density employment and major transitinfrastructure. Within the Region of Peel, the Growth Planidentifies two UGCs — the Mississauga City Centre andDowntown Brampton. Both UGCs are required to achieve adensity of 200 jobs and residents combined per ha. TheMississauga UGC includes the City Centre planning districtas well as a corridor extending southwards along HurontarioStreet to the Queen Elizabeth Way.

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The Growth Plan objectives are consistent with many of theCity of Mississauga’s existing planning goals to promotegrowth within existing communities and within the CityCentre. As a result, for the 2008 forecast update, two growthscenarios have been prepared:

• The “reference” growth forecast scenario involvesincreasing intensification activity over time to a levelconsistent with the role that the City of Mississauga isanticipated to play in achieving the Regional GrowthPlan intensification targets and UGC objectives. Thereference forecast illustrates the implications ofachieving the Growth Plan objectives.

• The “high” growth forecast scenario anticipates a muchmore significant shift to higher density types ofdevelopment in the GTAH and in Mississauga, and aresulting widespread increase of intensification activityacross the City. The high growth scenario illustrates theimplications of a level of growth that would exceed theGrowth Plan objectives.

The following chapter provides the resulting population andhousing outlook for the City of Mississauga.

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III THE POPULATION OF THE CITY OF MISSISSAUGA IS FORECAST TO GROW TO 780,000 IN 2031

This chapter provides the results of the updated populationforecasts for the City of Mississauga, beginning with adiscussion of the population forecast for the broadermetropolitan region. This is followed by a discussion of theoutlook for the City of Mississauga under both the referenceand high population growth scenarios.

A. GROWTH OUTLOOK IN MISSISSAUGA PREPARED INMETROPOLITAN CONTEXT

The forces that affect the GTAH will similarly affect the Cityof Mississauga, so the timing of future development in theCity is closely tied to the development outlook for theGTAH.

The forecasts for the City of Mississauga are thereforeprepared in the context of the growth outlook for the GTAHas a whole. The forecasts for the GTAH and the City ofMississauga are based on the well-established forecast modelsused by Hemson in the past, including the forecasts preparedfor the Growth Plan.1

1. Forecast Based on Established Methods Used in thePast for Mississauga

As explained in more detail in previous reports, the forecastapproach is structured as a “top-down” model so that theMississauga forecasts can reflect trends occurring across theeconomic region. A number of “bottom-up” factors, however,are also incorporated in the forecasts, the most important ofwhich for the City of Mississauga are the limitationspresented by land supply. The forecast has been updated toinclude the following;

• All 2006 Census data for the GTAH and Mississauga;

• City’s housing and employment data to current;

• Most current CMHC housing data to provide bestestimates of housing unit growth and housing marketshares for the 2006 to 2011 Census period;

• Updated information for office space construction andemployment land development to make appropriateadjustments to 2006 employment and to estimate 2006to 2011 employment growth.

A schematic diagram of the forecast method to the City ofMississauga level is shown on the page following.

1For detail, see The Growth Outlook for the Greater GoldenHorseshoe, prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2005.

12

2. GTAH Forecast to Grow to a Population ofApproximately 8.6 Million by 2031

The population forecast for the GTAH is the result of thecombination of assumptions for natural increase (includingfertility and mortality rates) and the assumptions regardingthe amount and age structure of migrants. Table 1 providesthe forecast results.

Table 1Historic and Forecast Total Population

GTAH, 1986 to 2031

Census Year

Total Population(Including Net

Undercoverage )

Growth

19861991199620012006

4,340,0004,840,0005,260,0005,810,0006,320,000

—500,000420,000550,000510,000

20112016202120262031

6,810,0007,280,0007,740,0008,200,0008,620,000

490,000470,000460,000450,000420,000

Source: Statistics Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2008

As shown, the total population forecast for 2031 is the sameas the forecast in the Growth Plan, although there is somevariation in the interim years as a result of updating the 2006Census information. The Growth Plan population forecast forthe GTAH remains a sound long-term outlook.

13

3. Household Growth in GTAH Remains Primarily FamilyHouseholds Seeking Ground-Related Housing

Based on the age structure of the population, developmenteconomics and longer-term trends in housing occupancy,most of the demand for housing units in the GTAH will befamily households seeking ground-related housing. Continuedgradual shifts in housing growth by type in favour of mediumand higher density housing, however, are also included in theforecast update in accordance with the Growth Plan forecastsand the City of Mississauga 2003 and 2005 forecast updates.1

The forecast housing growth for the GTAH includes a higherproportion of growth in rowhouse and apartments, consistentwith the Growth Plan policy directions to encourage a morecompact form and growth through intensification.

The results of the GTAH housing forecast are shown in thefollowing Tables 2 and 3 — the first showing the historicaland forecast housing units and the second showing shares ofhousing growth by type. The forecast varies somewhat fromprevious forecasts but this results from the application of thesame long-term trend assumptions to the updated 2006 basedata.

Table 2Historic and Forecast Total Housing Unit Growth

GTAH, 1986 to 2031

Census Period

Single andSemi

Detached

Rows Apts. Total

1986-911991-961996-012001-06

112,00064,00099,000

144,000

16,000 17,000 31,00038,000

71,00052,00037,00058,000

198,000133,000167,000240,000

2006-112011-162016-212021-262026-31

86,00090,00091,00088,00078,000

32,00035,00035,00037,00038,000

78,00073,00071,00065,00055,000

196,000198,000198,000190,000171,000

Source: Statistics Canada Census of Canada 2006 and HemsonConsulting Ltd.

Note: Due to a change in definition and collection method forhousing data in the 2006 Census, a major “datadiscontinuity” was created between housing data up to2001 and the 2006 data. The historic growth shown in thetable is “period of construction” data, that is the year builtfor housing as recorded in the 2006 Census. Observerscomparing these data to other earlier reports will note avariation in the historical numbers but the same pattern ofgrowth in unit types overall.

1For detail, see The Growth Outlook for the Greater GoldenHorseshoe, prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2005.

14

Table 3Historic and Forecast Shares of Housing Growth

GTAH, By Type, 1991 to 2031

Census Period

Single andSemi

Detached

Rows Apts. Total

1986-911991-961996-012001-06

56.3%48.0%59.3%59.9%

7.9%12.6%18.4%15.8%

35.9%39.4%22.3%24.3%

100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

2006-112011-162016-212021-262026-31

43.9%45.4%46.0%46.5%45.7%

16.2%17.9%17.9%19.5%22.1%

39.9%36.7%36.1%34.0%32.2%

100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

Longer-term Averages

1986-20062006-2031

56.7%45.5%

13.7%18.6%

29.6%35.9%

100.0%100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada Census of Canada 2006 andHemson Consulting Ltd.

The housing mix suggested for the 2006 to 2011 period showsa significant shift in unit type preferences between the2001–06 period and the 2006–11 period. The 2006–11housing forecast is based on known completions and unitsunder construction through to mid-2008 which means thatabout three-quarters of the forecast housing for the period hasbeen realized1.

While the change in the 2001–06 period undoubtedlyrepresents some larger market shifts, it is important not tomisinterpret these results. The high share of lower densityhousing in 2001–06 and the high share of apartments in thesame period are a product of the current housing market cyclepeaking for low density housing earlier (2002) than for highdensity housing (2006). This phenomenon has been observedin the previous market cycle that occurred in the late 1980s,when single-detached completions peaked in 1987-88 andapartments completions peaked in 1989-90.

Within the longer-term trends, the share of new housingamong the housing types can be more volatile from oneperiod to the next as a result both of demographic andhousing market cycles. Overall, the historic average marketshare of single and semi detached units is forecast to declinefrom a long term of almost 57% of the market down to justover 45% of the market over the next 25 years, as the GrowthPlan is implemented. A “business-as-usual” forecast wouldhave had an increasing low density housing forecast (up toabout 52% of growth by end of the period) and acompensating reduced medium and higher density housingforecast.

1At an average of 6 months construction for wood frameground-related housing, mid-2008 under construction data approxi-

mate housing completions to the end of 2008. For poured-concreteapartments a typical 30 month construction means that mid-2008under construction indicates completions through to the end of 2010.

15

Considering Mississauga’s reliance on apartments for futuregrowth, it should be noted the long-term historic averagemarket share of under 30% is forecast to average 36% overthe coming 25 years, largely in response to the Growth Plan.Given the rate of growth and the overall size of the GTAHmarket, this is a very significant shift in housing demandbeing forecast.

As described, these forecasts remain based on a marketoutlook adjusted by current policies in order to achieve thetargeted Regional population in the Growth Plan. Furtherpolicy-induced shifts in the housing mix in favour of highdensity are likely to be needed elsewhere in order for otherRegions to meet the Growth Plan rules.

B. GROWTH IN MISSISSAUGA IS BASED ON BOTH SUPPLY POTENTIAL AND ON MARKET DEMAND

The population forecast for the City of Mississauga beginswith the preparation of a housing forecast; future housinggrowth is determined by applying market shares to the overallGTAH housing growth; and a forecast of average householdsize is then applied to the housing forecast to determine theoverall population. The results — consistent with our previous forecasts — arefor a gradual slowing of population growth as a result of thedepletion of the ground-related housing supply and a shift tosmaller households in higher density units.

The population will also become more diverse over time asnew housing attracts more single person and non-familyhouseholds in a wider age range than new housing did in thepast, when new units were primarily ground-related family-oriented housing.

1. Remaining Lower Density Supply is Limited; EnormousPotential for Higher Density Housing

Given that the supply for lower density housing units inMississauga is limited, the forecast incorporates different typesof intensification, including: infill, redevelopment and higherdensity development on existing designated sites. Thepotential housing supply includes the limited remainingsupply of greenfield ground-related housing plus an estimatedsupply of intensification opportunities; including somemedium density units and a large supply of high density units.The potential housing supply includes:

• An estimate of the vacant land potential;

• An estimate of intensification potential in the UGCand identified nodes and corridors; and

• Other identified redevelopment sites, including non-conforming sites (sites “grandfathered” from previouszoning with higher density than permitted by the zoningtoday).

The City of Mississauga’s future housing potential is shown inTable 4.

16

Table 4Future Housing PotentialCity of Mississauga 2008

Single& Semi

Rows Apts. Total

Existing Units 124,200 34,700 69,300 228,300

Futu

re S

uppl

y Po

tent

ial

Vacant LandPotential(excludingUGC andNodes)

3,280 2,310 5,590 11,170

Urban GrowthCentre (VacantandIntensification)

10 370 20,070 20,450

Nodes (VacantandIntensification)

10 1,210 28,110 29,330

Intensificationin IdentifiedCorridors

0 0 45,930 45,930

IdentifiedRedevelopmentSites (legal non-conforming)

40 5,200 7,740 12,980

Sub-TotalFuture SupplyPotential

3,300 9,100 107,400 119,900

Total Supply Potential 127,500 43,800 176,700 348,200

Source: City of Mississauga Planning and BuildingDepartment and Hemson Consulting Ltd.

From the table it is clear that the City has a diminishingsupply of low density units and a very significant potentialsupply of apartment units. This is not unusual for acommunity nearing full development of greenfield land.Since there are virtually no land supply constraints onapartment development — other than planning policy —opportunities for such development are tremendous.However, the amount of intensification that actually occursis driven by the market — or in other words, by the numberof households that want to live in an apartment inMississauga versus other housing forms and locations.

Intensification and redevelopment are also typically very slowprocesses, for which a large supply does not necessarily meanthat more apartment development is likely. The supply willonly be absorbed as fast as the market dictates. Otherneighbouring communities such as Toronto also have a verylarge supply potential for redevelopment, but, like Mississaugaare limited by market demand rather than supply potential.It is unlikely that the entire potential supply of high densitysites in Mississauga will ever fully develop and a very largeshare of the redevelopment that does will eventually occurbeyond the planning horizon of 2031.

2. Mississauga Will Accommodate A Significant Share of GTAH Apartment Growth

The forecast of housing growth by type in the City ofMississauga is based on the City’s future housing potential,the anticipated timing and level of intensification and trendsin other neighbouring communities:

17

• The market shares of single and semi-detached units areforecast to decline significantly over the forecast period,reflecting the build out of the greenfield land supply.

• The market shares of rowhouses are also forecast todecline somewhat as a result of competition from othercommunities, such as Brampton and Halton Region, toattract this type of development. Most of the vacantland rowhouse supply potential will be exhaustedwithin the next 10 years, meaning that growth beyond2016 will be highly dependant on redevelopment; and

• The City of Mississauga will continue to have a large market share of the higher density housing market,resulting in apartments accounting for a growing shareof the City’s housing market.

The decline in the apartment market share in Mississauga(something which also is forecast to occur in Toronto), is theresult of the apartment market becoming established in otherparts of the GTAH, such as Brampton or the Region ofHalton, where the market is currently very small. This shiftin share to other locations is not only a normally expectedpattern for other communities as they mature, but also apolicy necessity if the Growth Plan targets are to be met.

The forecast shares of the GTAH housing market is shown inTable 5.

Table 5Mississauga Historic and Forecast Housing Market Shares

of GTAH, by Housing Unit Type

Period Single andSemi Detached

Rowhouses Apartments

1986-911991-961996-012001-06

23.6%54.0%40.7%29.9%

19.4%21.0%15.8%14.2%

17.0%10.6%3.2%8.8%

2006-112011-162016-212021-262026-31

14.3%2.7%1.0%0.7%0.5%

9.1%7.7%5.8%5.3%4.7%

10.5%8.5%7.2%6.8%6.8%

Source: Statistics Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.,2008

Tables 6 and 7 provide the forecast housing growth by typeand housing mix for the City of Mississauga. Based on theupdated unit forecast:

• All of the single and semi-detached supply will beexhausted by 2031;

• All of the vacant land supply for rowhouses will beconsumed along with some of the additional estimatedintensification potential for these units; and

18

• The potential supply of apartment units is sufficientlylarge to accommodate growth over the very long term.Over the planning period to 2031, the total demand forapartments falls well short of the total vacant supplypotential before even accounting for additionalestimated intensification potential

Table 6Historic and Forecast Total Housing Growth

City of Mississauga 1986 to 2031

Census Period

Single andSemi

Detached

Rows Apts Total

1986-911991-961996-012001-06

17,20011,70014,90013,500

3,1003,7005,0005,000

11,1003,900

8005,300

31,40019,20020,70023,800

2006-112011-162016-212021-262026-31

4,900700300200200

2,9002,7002,0002,0001,800

8,2006,1005,1004,4003,700

16,0009,6007,5006,5005,600


The City of Mississauga, as a more urban community, willbecome more focussed on non-family households and higherdensity housing forms than elsewhere in the 905 region overthe planning period. Over time, the City will accommodatethe largest share of apartment growth in the GTAH outsideof the City of Toronto.

Table 7Mississauga Historic and Forecast Housing Market Shares

of GTAH, by Housing Unit Type

Period Single andSemi Detached

Rowhouses Apartments

1986-911991-961996-012001-06

54.5%45.8%53.1%62.4%

12.3%13.4%18.9%23.0%

33.2%40.8%27.9%14.6%

2006-112011-162016-212021-262026-31

14.3%2.7%1.0%0.7%0.5%

9.1%7.7%5.8%5.3%4.7%

10.5%8.5%7.2%6.8%6.8%

Longer-term Averages

1986-20062006-2031

53.7%14.1%

16.7%25.1%

29.6%60.8%


The share of the single and semi-detached housing is forecastto decline significantly over the planning period, resultingfrom the depletion of the greenfield land supply. Applyingthe market shares to the GTAH and Regional housingmarket results in a forecast of housing unit by type.

As can be seen from the table, total housing unit growthdeclines through the forecast period, especially for theground-related types. Growth in new apartments remainsrelatively constant in the reference forecast and increasesunder the high growth forecast.

19

3. Declining Average Household Sizes Mean SlowerPopulation Growth than Housing Growth

The population forecast is determined by applying a projectedaverage household size to the housing forecast. Like allcommunities in the GTAH, average household size isanticipated to decline gradually over time as a result of anumber of factors, but mainly associated with the aging of thepopulation, as described in the previous chapter.

The decline in average household size will have a significantimpact on the existing population base and the future growthforecast, especially in a City as large as Mississauga. Theforecast person per unit factors by unit type are show in Table8.

The data in the table indicate a continuation of a slowdownward trend in average household sizes, both historic andforecast. The exception has been greater volatility in theperson per unit in apartments as different types of householdsand types of units come to market. In particular, theoccupants of apartments historically were more seniorhouseholds and fewer young families than today. This patternin apartments moderates the overall declining trend and isexpected to continue in the future. In the context of anoverall average household size decline of 7.5% between 1986and 2031, apartment average household size is forecast to stillbe 6.3% above the 1986 level.

Table 8Historic and Forecast Persons Per Unit


Census Year

Singles Semi Rows Apts All Units

19861991199620012006

3.493.553.523.513.48

3.833.733.633.473.44

3.363.163.213.133.08

2.222.282.472.412.50

3.093.103.143.133.09

20112016202120262031

3.433.373.333.293.27

3.403.353.303.273.23

3.042.992.962.932.91

2.482.442.412.382.36

3.042.982.932.892.86


The person per unit projection combined with the housingoutlook for the City of Mississauga results in the referencepopulation forecast in Tables 9 and 10. Table 9 provides thecomponents of the Census definition of population. Thefigures in Table 10 add the Census net undercoverage toprovide a total population for the City. The pattern ofslowing population growth in the City is clear from Table 10,where the final build out of the greenfield housing supplymeans much slower growth.

20

Table 9Forecast of Total Population


Census Year

HouseholdPopulation

Non-Household Population

CensusPopulation

19861991199620012006

371,000460,000542,000610,000664,000

3,0003,0002,0003,0005,000

374,000463,000544,000613,000669,000

20112016202120262031

701,000716,000726,000735,000745,000

5,0005,0005,0005,0005,000

706,000721,000731,000740,000750,000


4. Most of the City’s Growth Will Occur in Urban GrowthCentre

The growth forecast by planning district is shown in Table11. At the planning district level, most growth in the shortterm will be focussed in remaining areas with with greenfieldsupply, including Central Erin Mills, Churchill Meadows,Hurontario and East Credit. Once the land supply for lowerdensity housing is built out in a few short years, growth willstill be accommodated primarily through higher densityhousing on remaining vacant sites as well as in identifiedintensification areas.

Table 10Forecast of Total Population

City of Mississauga 1986 to 2031Including Net Undercoverage

Census Year

CensusPopulation


Undercoverage)

Growth

19861991199620012006

374,000463,000544,000613,000670,000

389,000480,000561,000640,000698,000

—91,00081,00079,00058,000

20112016202120262031

706,000721,000731,000740,000750,000

737,000753,000763,000773,000783,000

39,00016,00010,00010,00010,000


Many of the City’s older communities will begin toexperience population decline as a result of declining averagehousehold size in the existing base and where there is littlenew development to compensate. These include Malton,Meadowvale, Erindale, Sheridan and Rathwood. At most,however, the decline is only 5% in Malton over 23 years,which should not be considered large over such a long periodof time.

Some communities, however, will experience some growth asolder housing stock begins to “turn over” with youngerfamilies replacing the elderly in ground-related housing. Thebulk of the communities between the rapid growth areas at

21

the top and the declining populations near the bottom, willbe experiencing moderate growth through intensification andredevelopment. High amenity areas in older establishedcommunities such as Streetsville and along the lakeshoresuch as Port Credit and Lakeview will be attractive locationsfor this type of development.

Most of the City’s population growth, however, is anticipatedto occur in the UGC, which incorporates the City Centreand portions of Cooksville, Fairview and Mississauga Valleys.The high demand for apartment units in this area is expectedto continue through the forecast period, particularly asfurther major transportation investments are made.

The population forecast for the City Centre is alsoaccompanied by an expectation of commercial andinstitutional growth supporting its role as a focus forcommercial office and cultural, civic and recreationalfacilities, but, in turn, reinforcing the attractiveness of theCity Centre for residential growth.

This is discussed in more detail in Chapter IV, whichdescribes the employment forecast for the City.

Table 11Mississauga Planning District Population Forecast

Total Population, 2008 to 2031

District 2008 2031 Growth

UGC (incl. City Centre) 70,990 102,260 31,270

Churchill MeadowsCentral Erin MillsMeadowvale VillageEast CreditHurontarioErin MillsLakeviewStreetsvillePort CreditClarkson-Lorne ParkApplewoodFairview (exl. UGC)DixieMineolaLisgarCreditviewCooksville (exl. UGC)Mississauga Valleys (exl. UGC)RathwoodSheridanErindaleMeadowvaleMalton

36,79034,82026,78064,58062,89048,03022,64012,16011,83040,32039,530

7,630410

9,70031,41010,98025,27013,43031,28017,95023,16041,99038,520

43,45040,44032,16068,30066,26049,71024,10013,09012,65041,07039,910

7,990700

9,85031,54011,11025,39013,55031,08017,63022,53041,11036,670

6,6605,6205,3803,7203,3701,6801,460

930820750380360290150130130120120

(200)(320)(630)(880)

(1,850)

Employment Districts 140 130 (10)

Total City 723,200 782,700 59,500

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2008

22

C. HIGH GROWTH FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CITYATTRACTING MORE INTENSIFICATION

In order to provide a range on the forecast results, this sectiondescribes a high population growth forecast to 2031, which isbased on the City of Mississauga attracting a higher level ofintensification. The high forecast could result from one oftwo future events:

• A broad, metropolitan-wide shift in favour of higherdensity housing in the GTAH, with Mississaugamaintaining a similar market share as anticipated underthe reference forecast; or

• The more likely event that the City of Mississaugawould be successful in attracting a higher share of thehigh density market as a result of efforts to improve themarket attraction of the community for accommodatingdemand for such development. This result wouldgenerally be contrary to the Growth Plan whichexpresses a clear interest in greater amounts of higherdensity housing development in many locations acrossthe Greater Golden Horseshoe.

The results of the high forecast are summarized in thefollowing tables. Under the high growth scenario, an evenlarger increase in the City of Mississauga’s share of apartmentsis forecast. The shares of the single and semi-detached unitmarket decline as in the reference forecast, since the landsupply for this type of development is constrained and thereare few initiatives that the City can reasonably implement toaffect this condition.

Table 12High Forecast Scenario

Historic and Forecast Total Housing Growth City of Mississauga 1986 to 2031

Census Period

Single andSemi

Detached

Rows Apts Total

1986-911991-961996-012001-06

17,20011,70014,90013,500

3,1003,7005,0005,000

11,1003,900

8005,300

31,40019,20020,70023,800

2006-112011-162016-212021-262026-31

4,900800400200100

3,1002,9002,3002,4002,500

8,2007,5007,7007,4006,300

16,30011,20010,40010,0008,900


23


Forecast of Total Population City of Mississauga 1986 to 2031

Census Period

HouseholdPopulation

Non-Household Population

Total

19861991199620012006

371,000460,000542,000610,000664,000

3,0003,0002,0003,0005,000

374,000463,000544,000613,000669,000

20112016202120262031

702,000721,000737,000755,000772,000

5,0005,0005,0005,0006,000

707,000726,000742,000760,000778,000


D. POTENTIAL CAPACITY FAR EXCEEDS ANYREASONABLE EXPECTATION OF DEVELOPMENT

Based on the supply information described earlier in thischapter, the City has a theoretical ultimate developmentcapacity that far exceeds any reasonable expectations for theamount of growth that may actually occur. This is true inbroader market demand: however successful the Growth Planmay be in shifting housing preferences, many households willstill choose the ground-related housing being provided inother jurisdictions.


Total Population (Including Net Undercoverage)City of Mississauga, 1986 to 2031

Census Period

CensusPopulation


Undercoverage )

Growth

19861991199620012006

374,000463,000544,000613,000670,000

389,000480,000561,000640,000698,000

—91,00081,00079,00058,000

20112016202120262031

707,000726,000742,000760,000778,000

738,000757,000775,000794,000812,000

40,00019,00018,00019,00018,000

Theoretical supply far exceeding actual development is alsoa product of the characteristics of redevelopment. Unlikegreenfield development which can be delivered predictablyand rapidly, redevelopment tends to be a slow process,typically only occurring when the useful economic life ofexisting buildings is complete. For example, a dated-lookinglow density strip mall can be an economically viableoperation for the owner far longer than most casual observerswould imagine.

24

With such a large stock of newer buildings in Mississauga, theredevelopment process will be very long term in nature. A 25year time frame for these forecasts to 2031 is simply not allthat long in terms of accommodating redevelopment.

E. OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICSINDICATE GRADUAL CHANGE

Although it is difficult to predict with a great deal ofaccuracy, it is also anticipated that the City’s population willbecome more diverse over time.

• The ethnic composition of the City will continue tobecome more diverse over time. The City will likelycontinue and increase its role as an initial destinationfor immigrants, meaning a continued diversification ofthe ethnic profile of the population.

• The City will also likely see some shifts in the averageincome. While currently the City is somewhat higherthan the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)average, over time it is anticipated to trend towards theCMA average. This trend will be the result of anincreasing proportion of growth in higher densityhouseholds and aging of the population, which tends toput downward pressure on overall average income.

• Higher density housing tends also to be occupied by

more non-family and lower income households and agood portion of the elderly population who are beyondworking age and in many cases on fixed incomes.

Overall, the pace of population growth in the City of

Mississauga will slow and become increasingly orientedtowards higher density forms. The ethnic composition of theCity’s population is also anticipated to become increasinglydiverse over time, with other demographic characteristics alsodemonstrating gradual change.1

This increasing diversity in the population will have an effecton many elements of the municipal corporation, particularlywith respect to the services that are required and how theywill be delivered. It will also have an effect on theemployment outlook, as discussed in the next chapter.

F. MISSISSAUGA NEEDS TO UNDERTAKE LONG TERMPLANNING FOR AGING OF POPULATION

The aging of the population is a phenomena common to mostareas in Ontario. The largest age cohort in Canada’spopulation is the “baby boom” generation. This term refers topeople born between the years of 1946 and 1966. Because theperiod of rapid development of Mississauga since the 1980swas based largely on attracting young families, the agestructure of Mississauga is substantially younger today than inOntario or Canada; the peak 35– 39 age group in 2006 beingborn in the late 1960s. As the City enters a period of slower

1For detail, see Growth in a Maturing Community: Popula-tion, Household and Employment Forecasts 2001-2031, prepared inNovember 2003.

25

growth, the aging of Mississauga’s peak age groups willbecome the dominant trend in the population age structure.

In 2006, those 65 and over comprised about 8% of thepopulation in Mississauga. By 2031, the forecast projects thatthis age cohort will account for about 20% of the totalpopulation; this means nearly a tripling of the seniorspopulation in the City. At the same time the school agepopulation will be stable or declining in most parts of theCity which will have significant implicaitons for the schoolboards.

The transition from a fast growing and relatively youngpopulation to a more stable and older population hasimportant implications for service delivery across a widerange of departments including those responsible for parksand recreation, transit, community planning and others.

26

IV EMPLOYMENT IS FORECAST TO GROW TO OVER 500,000 JOBS BY 2031

This chapter provides the results of the updated employmentforecasts for the City of Mississauga, beginning with adiscussion of the employment forecast for the broadermetropolitan region. This is followed by a discussion of theoutlook for the City of Mississauga under both reference andhigh growth scenarios.

Like growth in population, the nature of employment growthin Mississauga is also affected strongly by land supply. As thesupply of land for industrial-type uses is diminished, theoverall rate of growth will slow and a greater share ofemployment will be accommodated in major offices.Mississauga will also continue to accommodate employmentgrowth in the form of retail and institutional services to theresident population.

Like the previous forecast, the 2008 forecast updateanticipates continued employment growth for the GTAH andthat the City of Mississauga will remain a major employmentcentre within the GTAH. Notwithstanding the currenteconomic slow-down, the long-term economic outlook forboth the GTAH and Mississauga is positive.

A. EMPLOYMENT IN THE GTAH IS ANTICIPATED TOGROW STEADILY TO 2031

The Growth Plan anticipates that 1.8 million jobs will beadded to the GGH between 2001 and 2031, the majority ofwhich — 1.4 million jobs — will be in the GTAH.Notwithstanding that employment growth in the 2001 to2006 Census period fell somewhat short of expectations andthe 2006 to 2011 period will also likely do so, thefundamentals do remain in place for continued, long-termgrowth.

1. A Shift from Expected Employment Growth PattensOccurred Between 2001 and 2006

One of the more interesting features of the 2006 Census is thepattern of employment growth that is shown during the 2001to 2006 period:

• Overall, employment in the GTAH grew by only 8.4%over the five years, compared to a forecast of 11.7%., sowas much lower than expected.

• Within the GTAH, the Cities of Toronto and Hamiltonand the Region of Durham all met or exceededexpectations. Within the Outer Ring, the Counties andregions such as Simcoe, Waterloo, Wellington and Brantalso met or exceeded growth expectations.

27

• At the same time the areas where the fastest growth hadbeen expected — Peel, York and Halton — were thefarthest below expectations.

More recent data is now indicating why this pattern occurred.Less employment has occurred in employment lands than hadbeen expected, and somewhat more occurred in otherlocations in communities in the form of community-relatedemployment such as retail, health, education and publicadministration.

While the industrial-type activities had little net growth inemployment, GTAH-wide, there was a significant increase inbuilding space. The combination of little employment growthand the addition of new space indicates a decline inemployment density in employment areas. This densitydecline goes a long way toward explaining the geographicaldistribution of growth.

2. Despite Current Economic Slowdown, GTAHEmployment is Forecast to Grow to 4.3 Million Jobs by2031

As shown in the graph following, since the end of therecession of the early and mid-1990s, employment in theGTAH has grown rapidly and steadily. Notwithstanding thepattern of employment growth during the 2001 to 2006period, and the current period of economic uncertainty, on an

annualized basis the pattern of long-term sustainedemployment growth in the GTAH is clear.

There is no question that the current economic showdown inthe United States and Canada will yield declines in bothmanufacturing output and manufacturing employment. And,in turn, the economic slowdown is likely to have some short-term effects on the non-residential and real estate sector in theGTAH. The slowdown is also likely to have indirect effectsthrough the financial markets, as nervous buyers and investorsbecome more cautious.

Reflecting current economic conditions, it is anticipated thatoverall employment growth during the 2006 to 2011 periodwill be somewhat slower than anticipated. However, over thelonger term, the fundamentals remain in place for continuedstrong economic performance and employment growth over

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the planning period to 2031. The global financial crisis isquite recent and government actions are being taken.

However, it remains highly uncertain as to the degree ofimpact that these events will have on the overall economyeither nationally or in the GTAH. And, great uncertaintyexists as to how long such effects will be felt.

The GTAH is anticipated to remain the primary economicengine in Ontario, with economic output anticipated tocontinue to grow over the long-term, accompanied byassociated growth in employment and income. The forecastresults are shown in the following table. As with thepopulation forecast, the 2031 total is consistent with theGrowth Plan although intervening periods may vary.

Table 15Historic and Forecast Total Employment

GTAH, 1986 to 2031

Census Year

Total Employment

Growth Growth Rate

19861991199620012006

2,270,0002,500,0002,530,0002,940,0003,190,000

—220,00030,000

410,000250,000

—1.9%0.3%3.1%1.6%

20112016202120262031

3,430,0003,760,0004,010,0004,160,0004,320,000

240,000330,000250,000150,000160,000

1.5%1.9%1.3%0.7%0.8%


3. Employment Land Will Play a Major Role inAccommodating Future Growth

The nature of the GTAH economic base is such that asignificant share of employment is accommodated inland-extensive, single-storey, industrial-type buildings onemployment land. This built form is related to the structure ofthe GTAH economy and is not anticipated to change rapidlyor significantly through the forecast period.

As shown in Table 16, approximately 37% of the totalemployment growth forecast for the 2006 to 2031 period willbe employment land employment, which is forecast to grow byapproximately 420,000 jobs. About a quarter of the forecastjob growth will be accommodated in major offices, with theremainder in scattered locations throughout the community,including those that work from home.

Table 16Employment Forecast By Major Type

GTAH 2006 to 2031 (in 000s)

Type 2006 2031 Growth Share

Major OfficePopulation RelatedEmployment Land

7901,1301,270

1,0701,5601,690

280430420

25%38%37%

Total Employment 3,190 4,320 1,130 100%

Source: The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe ,Hemson Consulting Ltd., Compact Growth ScenarioReference Forecast, updated with 2006 Census Employmentinformation. May not add due to rounding

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Most of the employment growth in the GTAH, therefore, willbe accommodated primarily within suburban industrialbusiness park environments, which has significantimplications for the City of Mississauga.

B. GROWTH IN MISSISSAUGA IS BASED ON LANDSUPPLY AND MARKET POTENTIAL

Currently, the City of Mississauga plays a major role in theGTAH employment market. The City’s 2006 employment isestimated to be nearly 431,000 jobs, which includes majorconcentrations of economic activity in the manufacturing,trade and transportation sectors. One of the main reasons forthe City’s economic success has been a large and competitivesupply of employment land.

Over the coming years, however, the City of Mississauga’s rolein the GTAH employment land market will begin to shift asits supply of greenfield development land is depleted. Thecombination of continued employment growth in the GTAHand Mississauga’s continued appeal as an employment locationsuggest that Mississauga’s employment land supply will bebuilt-out in the next 5 to 10 years.

As a result, other communities in the GTAH such asBrampton, Oakville and Milton will attract Mississauga’shistoric share of employment land market and employment inMississauga will increasingly be focussed in higher densityforms, particularly major offices.

1. Mississauga’s Role in the GTAH Employment LandMarket Will Change Over Time

Historically, the City of Mississauga has accounted for a largeshare of the GTAH employment land building activity andland absorption. However, nearly all of the City’s employmentland supply is developed, the result of a combination of theCity’s age, locational advantages and good employment landplanning.1

The pattern of development for employment land mirrors thepattern of build-out of ground-related housing and willcertainly occur. The only issue is that of the exact timing ofdepletion. The observed pattern in other communities is thatthe development tends to tail off as the supply approachesdepletion, with the last segment of absorption occurring slowlyover a long time period. The City of Mississauga will continueto maintain a large employment base over the forecast periodbut the rate of growth will slow and nature of employmentgrowth will shift.

1For detail, see City of Mississauga Employment Land ReviewStudy, prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. in June 2008.

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2. Employment is Forecast to be Concentrated in theMajor Office Sectors

For the City of Mississauga, employment in major offices isforecast to grow from a 2006 employment of approximately90,000 jobs to nearly 140,000 jobs by 2031, translating intogrowth of nearly 50,000 jobs. Population-related andemployment land employment are forecast to grow by 19,000and 7, 000 jobs, respectively. The forecast of employment bytype is shown in the following table.

Table 17Historic and Forecast Total Employment By Type


Census Year

Major Office

PopulationRelated

Employment Land

Total

19861991199620012006

23,00047,00050,00070,00091,000

62,00077,00084,00096,000

107,000

132,000150,000168,000217,000233,000

217,000274,000303,000382,000431,000

20112016202120262031

102,000117,000127,000133,000139,000

115,000122,000125,000125,000126,000

237,000239,000240,000240,000240,000

454,000478,000492,000497,000504,000

Growth2006-31

48,000 19,000 7,000 73,000


The following are some key points regarding the growthoutlook for employment by type:

• In recent years, the City of Mississauga hasaccommodated most of the major office developmentoutside of the City of Toronto, primarily within theAirport Corporate District. After 2011, the growth ratefor major office in the GTAH slows somewhat, howeverMississauga will continue to retain its dominant positionin the 905 market.

• The rate of population-related employment will slow asa result of the pending build out of the supply for ground-related units, although this may be balanced somewhatby growth in metropolitan-wide population-relatedemployment, consistent with the evolving central placefunctions of the City; and

• Employment land employment will continue to grow inthe short-term as the remaining supply of land isabsorbed. Employment land employment is forecast tonear its peak of 240,000 jobs by 2021(including 22,000jobs on the LPBIA site).

Overall, continued rapid growth in City-wide employment isanticipated to occur to 2011 as the remaining greenfieldemployment land supply is developed. After 2011,employment growth slows and its composition will shifttowards major offices. Over the forecast period, the City willcontinue to maintain a dominant position in the GTAH 905office market and will continue to accommodate population-related employment.

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3. Employment Growth Will be Concentrated in theEmployment Districts and City Centre

Employment in Mississauga’s designated Employment Districtscurrently accounts for the majority of the City’s employment,as shown in Table 18. Like the population forecast, a largeshare of the employment growth in the short term isanticipated to occur in the areas with an available land supplyto accommodate development.

The most rapid employment growth is forecast to occur in theMeadowvale Business Park, Gateway and Airport Corporate,where office growth is expected to be focussed. Employmentin the UGC is forecast to grow by approximately 6,700 jobs to2031, reflecting both City and Provincial policy objectives.

One of the key challenges to forecasting employment growthin the City Centre, and other planning districts, however, isthe extent to which the City can direct major offices:

• Historically, most of the office space that has been builtin the City of Mississauga has been accommodated ingreenfield business park locations, primarily in theAirport Corporate District and Meadowvale.

• Once the capacity of these areas is exhausted, however,a shift in the market will need to occur towards the CityCentre and other planned transit nodes. The extent towhich this shift can be achieved will be a significantchallenge. The forecast for the UGC has some shift, butis somewhat conservative with respect to future officemarket share in the UGC.

Table 18Mississauga Planning District Employment Forecast, 2008 to 2031

District 2008 2031 Growth

UGC (incl. City Centre) 35,030 43,270 8,250

Meadowvale Business Gateway Airport CorporateWestern Business ParkAirportSheridan Park Southdown Dixie Mavis-ErindaleNortheast

Employment Districts Total

42,720 57,830 24,630 12,470 21,870 6,010

15,930 18,100 9,120

125,700

334,360

54,290 66,830 31,490 14,440 23,750 7,560

17,370 18,750 9,730

125,810

370,010

11,5709,0006,860 1,9801,880 1,5601,440

650610110

35,660

Central Erin MillsChurchill MeadowsEast CreditHurontario Erin MillsMeadowvale Village Port Credit Streetsville Clarkson-Lorne Park Lakeview Cooksville (exl. UGC)ApplewoodSheridan Rathwood Malton Meadowvale ErindaleLisgar Fairview (exl. UGC)Mineola Mississauga Valleys (exl. UGC)Creditview

Residential Districts total

9,340 2,010 6,100 6,110 5,740 2,310 3,370 3,180 5,270 5,940 4,130 3,830 3,780 3,020 3,580 3,720 2,320 1,930 1,790 1,350 1,090

800

80,720

11,160 3,520 7,290 7,090 6,580 3,080 4,060 3,730 5,730 6,350 4,470 4,150 4,090 3,320 3,870 3,990 2,550 2,120 1,960 1,470 1,210

880

92,660

1,810 1,510 1,190

98084077069055047041034032031030030027023019017012011080

11,940

Total 450,100 505,950 55,850


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• Historically, planning has had a weak influence on thelocation of major offices. And, despite Mississauga’ssuccess in attracting offices, few have actually been builtin the City Centre or other planned nodes.

As a result, the forecast of employment by district anticipatesthat the Employment Districts will continue to accommodatethe majority of employment in major offices, with a gradualshift to the City Centre over time. The forecast results byplanning district are shown in Table 18.

C. HIGH GROWTH FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CITYATTRACTING MORE OFFICES

In order to provide a range on the forecast results, this sectiondescribes a high population growth forecast to 2031. The highgrowth forecast is based primarily on the City attracting ahigher level of major office employment, both to existinggreenfield locations and over time to the City Centre, asshown in Table 19.

The high growth forecast also anticipates a greater level ofgrowth in population-related activities, primarily related tothe City’s evolving role as a central place and the provision ofmore, metropolitan-wide services. The high growth forecastalso anticipates a greater level of employment intensification,particularly in the large employment areas around the LBPIA.

The results of the high forecast are summarized in thefollowing tables. Under the high growth scenario, an evenlarger increase in the City of Mississauga’s share of major officedevelopment is anticipated, as well as a more efficient use ofthe existing land and building supply.

Table 19High Forecast

Historic and Forecast Employment By Type City of Mississauga 1986 to 2031

Census Period

Major Office

PopulationRelated

Employment Land

Total

19861991199620012006

23,00047,00050,00070,00091,000

62,00077,00084,00096,000

107,000

132,000150,000168,000217,000233,000

217,000274,000303,000382,000431,000

20112016202120262031

102,000119,000131,000138,000146,000

115,000123,000127,000128,000131,000

237,000 241,000242,000

242,000 243,000

454,000483,000500,000509,000519,000

Growth2006-31

55,000 24,000 10,000 88,000


The forecast of population and employment for the planningdistricts is based largely on the same principles as the overallCity population — mainly that most of the growth will occur

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in areas where land is available. Older areas with littleopportunity for new development will likely be characterizedby slow or declining levels of growth. In order to achievehigher levels of growth, it is clear that actions will need to betaken to shift this land use pattern and make the City evenmore attractive for growth.

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V ACTIONS NEED TO BE TAKEN TO ENSURE THAT THE CITY OF MISSISSAUGA REMAINS ANATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH DENSITY DEVELOPMENT

The results of the 2008 forecast update indicate some clearshifts in the structure of both population and employmentgrowth over time. The City’s transition from a rapidly-growing suburban community has a number of keyimplications for the amount of and type of growth that willoccur over the planning period:

• The “reference” forecast is the most likely growthoutlook, in keeping with the Growth Plan objectivesregarding intensification and the City’s role meetingGrowth Plan targets set for the Region of Peel.

• The high forecast scenario should be considered to be a“target” of what could be achieved as a result of efforts toimprove the market attraction of the community forhigher-density forms, though attracting additionaldevelopment to this degree may run contrary to theintentions of Growth Plan.

As a general planning objective, it would be advisable for theCity of Mississauga to take actions, as it has in the past, tomaintain and improve the appeal of the community forgrowth and investment. Taking such actions will be evenmore important if the City is interested in accommodating alevel of population and employment growth that is beyondwhat may be considered “most likely”.

A. APPEAL OF HIGH DENSITY LIVING WILL NEED TO BEENHANCED

To achieve a higher level of growth in Mississauga, andperhaps even to achieve the Reference Scenario, the first stepthat will need to be taken is to ensure that the appeal of highdensity living is enhanced. In order to attract additionaldevelopment in the City, higher density urban living needs tobe more attractive to more households than either otherlocations or ground-related housing types. Some of the keyplanning considerations to this end are as follows:

• Planning for community services will increasingly needto cater to an aging population, including planning forbetter transit service, health care and for better accessand mobility throughout the community.

• Financial planning will increasingly need to focus onmaintenance issues and the task of keeping in goodrepair existing urban infrastructure. Key financialchallenges will include declining Development Chargerevenue and a shifting assessment base; and

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• Investment in the public realm will be critical. In orderto maintain — and enhance — the appeal of highdensity living, all aspects of the urban environment willneed to be well maintained and upgraded, including thetransportation system (transit, roads and rail), parks,streetscapes, cultural amenities and the arts.

B. POLICY AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT IS REQUIRED TOIMPROVE ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS

The larger challenge to achieving the high growth forecastwill be with employment, where the market will dictate mostof the amount and location of future economic development.In order to remain and improve the City’s competitiveness inthe GTAH employment market, strong policy and financialsupport will need to be provided. The following key points areworth noting to this end:

• As the supply of land for all types of urban uses inMississauga becomes increasingly constrained,redevelopment and intensification projects will becomemore contentious. Given that there may be somecommunity resistance to planned intensification,Provincial assistance may be required to support theGrowth Plan policies.

• Protecting employment land will also becomeincreasingly challenging. The value gap betweenemployment and residential use will continue to driveconversion pressure, and the shift to major officeemployment will be increasingly interpreted as a reason

to convert. Again, Growth Plan policies encouraginghigher levels of intensification will serve to compoundthis challenge.

• While there may be good potential for employmentintensification around the LBPIA, achieving thisobjective will require more than just planning policy. Asignificant investment in the area’s transportation systemwill be required, including potential transit solutions toease congestion.1

• Experience from the City of Toronto indicates thatemployment intensification can achieved. However,significant program and policy support along with a fullrange of financial incentives is required to put mostredevelopment sites on an equal competitive footingwith greenfield development sites.

• Equally, the task of directing major offices to plannedtransit nodes will also require policy and financialsupport. Contrary to popular planning objectives, mostmajor office development has occurred not in plannednodes but in greenfield business park environments withgood transportation access.

1For additional detail on the potential for employment intensific-ation in the employment areas around the LBPIA, see UnderstandingEmployment Land in the Region of Peel, prepared by HemsonConsulting Ltd., in November 2005.

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• Significant redevelopment for office use is also unlikelyto occur in Mississauga. Most of the potentialredevelopment sites in the City will not pass beyondtheir economic life within the period of the forecast,such as retail strip malls.

C. SENIOR LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT NEED TO BE APARTNER IN IMPLEMENTATION

As the City of Mississauga plans for a new future in which itwill increasingly accommodate more intensive developmentand provide metropolitan-wide services, it is clear that seniorlevels of government will need to provide some assistance inimplementation. Especially, should the City choose to set thehigh growth forecast as a long-range planning target, suchassistance would ideally include:

• Investment in the transportation infrastructure,particularly in the areas around the LBPIA and otherplanned transit nodes, to implement Growth Plan policiesfor transit-supportive development.

• Investment in other Provincially-funded facilities suchas hospitals and other health care facilities;

• Assistance in ensuring that a full range of urbanamenities are provided to enhance the appeal of highdensity living, within the context of declining revenuesand shifts in the assessment base associated withMississauga’s evolution to a central place within theRegion of Peel Region and GTAH; and

• Participation in potential Ontario Municipal Boardhearings regarding applications to convert employmentland to other uses or implementing intensificationproposals where there may be strong communityresistance.

The City of Mississauga is entering an exciting period ofchange. The shift to a more mature community will mean anumber of challenges and opportunities for the municipalcorporation, principal among which will be the need toaccommodate more growth through more intense built forms.The community’s ability to maintain its market appeal forsuch types of higher density development will be a major long-term planning consideration.

In addition to planning locally — which by its nature willbecome more complex — the growth outlook for the City ofMississauga engages other issues related to how the forecastswill be implemented, particularly regarding investment in theurban environment. We trust that the forecast informationprovided in this report is of assistance to City staff andCouncil as they make plans for the future.

welcome to mississauga data · the 2008 forecast assignment is an update of previous forecasts...

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