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eqspertis azri

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SoTa utiaSvili

iZebneba: saqarTvelos saxelmwifo politika

CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan mimarTebiT

eqspertis azri

SoTa utiaSvili

iZebneba: saqarTvelos saxelmwifo politika CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan mimarTebiT

2019

122

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ekuTvnis avtorebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saelCos Tvalsazriss.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis

fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2019 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-8-1237-8

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am dromde saqarTvelos mTavrobas ar aqvs raime sa-xis proaqtiuri politika mezobel CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan mimarTebiT. 2012 wlis ivnisSi saqarTvelos parlamentis mier miRebuli erovnuli strategia, saqarTvelos saxelmwifo koncefcia CrdiloeT kavkasiis xalxebTan urTierTobis Sesa-xeb, 2012 wlis Semodgomis arCevnebis Semdeg Taroze Semoido. winamdebare naSromi miznad isaxavs politikis SesaZlo vari-antebis Seswavlas da masTan dakavSirebuli rekomendaciebis SemuSavebas.

istoria

1991 wels saqarTvelos damoukideblobis aRdgenis Semdeg CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan urTierToba TiTqmis myisi-erad gauaresda. es, ZiriTadad, afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi mimdinare saqarTvelos Sida konfliqtebiT iyo gamowveuli. Crdilo osebi mxars uWerdnen TavianT eTnikur naTesavebs maSin, roca sxva Crdilokavkasielebma (romlebic ZiriTadad CrdiloeT kavkasiis dasavleT nawils warmoadgendnen, Tumca maTi ricxvi mxolod amiT ar Semoifargleboda) mxari afxa-zebs dauWires. am konfliqtebma qarTvelebsa da maT Crdilo-el mezoblebs Soris xangrZliv mtrobas daudo saTave.

CeCneTis pirvel omSi (1994-1996) saqarTvelo raime gamorCeuli saxiT CarTuli ar yofila, magram am omma qveya-naze mainc iqonia didi gavlena. afxazeTis omSi damarcxebisa (1993) da iZulebiT gadayenebuli eqsprezident gamsaxurdias-gan momavali safrTxis Semdeg prezidenti SevardnaZe ruse-Tis mTavrobas, faqtobrivad, danebda. SeTanxmebam, romlis farglebSic rusma samxedroebma daamarcxes da gafantes gam-saxurdias mxardamWeri SeiaraRebuli Zalebi, ruseTs saqarT-veloSi 25 wlis ganmavlobaSi samxedro bazebis ganTavsebisa da SevardnaZis mTavrobis mniSvnelovani ministrebis (Tav-dacvis, usafrTxoebisa da Sinagan saqmeTa) daniSvnis saSuale-ba misca. saqarTvelos damoukidebeli saxelmwifos mxolod saxeli darCa. CeCneTis pirvel omSi ruseTis damarcxebam Se-vardnaZes saSualeba misca gaeTavisuflebina ruseTis daniS-nuli an prorusi Tanamdebobis pirebi da damoukidebeli sam-Tavrobo institutebis Seneba daewyo.

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CeCneTis prezidenti masxadovi TbilisSi saxelmwifos meTaurma pativiT miiRo, magram saqarTvelosa da omebs Sua periodis CeCneTs Soris urTierTobas mxolod mcire Rirebu-leba hqonda.

saqarTveloze albaT ufro didi gavlena CeCneTis meore omma iqonia. omis dawyebidan maleve, meamboxe Zalebis-Tvis samxreTidan Setevis mizniT, ruseTis premier-ministrma putinma saqarTvelos rusi jariskacebis gatareba sTxova. prezidentma SevardnaZem amaze uari ganacxada, risi safasu-ric dauyovnebliv gadaixada _ ruseTma saqarTvelos moqa-laqeebisaTvis savizo reJimi daawesa.

omi kavkasiis mTebis gaswvriv gavrcelda da 10 aTasze meti CeCeni ltolvili pankisis xeobaSi, Crdilo-aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi, Camosaxlda. maleve maT asobiT SeiaraRebu-li mebrZoli SeuerTda. pankisi TavSesafari da satranzito punq ti gaxda CeCeni mebrZolebisaTvis, romlebmac xeobaze kontroli maleve daamyares. pankisSi TavSesafari ipoves al-qa idasa da sxva teroristuli organizaciebis meTaurebma.

putini kmayofili iyo imiT, rom CeCneTis mudmiv wi-naaRmdegobaSi saqarTvelos daadanaSaulebda. man ramden-jerme dabomba pankisi da saqarTvelos sazRvrebSi myofi sxva teritoriebi. am dabombvebs pirveli fataluri Sedegebi 2002 wlis agvistoSi mohyva. ruseTis generaluri Stabi saqarT-velos teritoriaze operaciiT imuqreboda.

ruseTi amtkicebda, rom saerTaSoriso samarTlis Tanaxmad, mas saqarTvelos teritoriaze samxedro operaci-is Catarebis ufleba hqonda, radgan is terorizms aqezeb-da. aRniSnuli safrTxis sapirwoned amerikis SeerTebulma Statebma qarTveli samxedroebis gadamzadeba gadawyvita. aSS-is mtkicebis Tanaxmad, uSiSroebis qarTul samsaxurebs ki ar undodaT, magram ar SeeZloT TavianT miwaze ucxoeli mebrZolebis winaaRmdeg efeqturad emoqmedaT _ es metwilad simarTle iyo.

sabolood, vardebis revoluciis Semdeg, mTavrobam CeCeni mebrZolebi aiZula ruseTSi dabrunebuliyvnen da pan-kisis xeobaze kontroli aRadgina. 2003 wlis Semdeg saqarT-veloSi mebrZolebis arc erTi jgufi ar dafiqsirebula. Tumca, ruseTi CeCeni teroristebis daxmarebaSi saqarTvelos kvlavac adanaSaulebda da saSiSi qmedebebiT emuqreboda.

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miuxedavad imisa, rom ruseTs Tavisi braldebis gasamyare-beli raime saxis mtkicebuleba arasdros warudgenia, saqarT-velos mTavroba amas samxedro moqmedebis farul safrTxed aRiqvamda da gansakuTrebuli seriozulobiT udgeboda. ru-seTTan urTierTobis gaumjobesebisaken mimarTuli saqarT-velos axali mTavrobis politika, romelic sawyis etapze Ce-Ceni mebrZolebis gayriT an Zebnili CeCnebis ruseTisaTvis araoficialurad gadacemiT gamoixata, Cavarda. 2004-2008 wlebSi CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT saqarTvelos politikas sami ZiriTadi mizani hqonda: 1. ar daeSva saqarTvelos wina-aRm deg ruseTis aranairi qmedeba aranairi sababiT (teror-izmis mxardaWera da sxv.), 2. pankisis mkacri kontroli da 3. CeCnur sazogadoebasTan sakomunikacio arxebis Riaobis SenarCuneba. urTierTobebi sxva Crdilokavkasiur respub-likebTan praqtikulad ar arsebobda.

saboloo jamSi, 2004-2008 wlebSi, sanam afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis problemebis mogvarebis irgvliv ruseTTan ormxrivi SeTanxmebis miRwevis mcire imedi mainc arsebobda, saqarTvelos mTavroba cdilobda, ar gaetarebina raime saxis proaqtiuri politika CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan mimarTebiT, raTa Tavidan aecilebina ruseTis gaRizianeba.

SeiZleba iTqvas, rom CeCneTis meore omis Semdeg CrdiloeT kavkasiis gadaWarbebulma militarizaciam, gansa-kuTrebiT, 2005 wels nalCikSi ganxorcielebuli reidis Sem-deg, ruseTs nayofieri niadagi moumzada 2008 wels saqarT-velos winaaRmdeg omis dasawyebad. amas aseve Zlier daexmara saerTaSoriso olimpiuri komitetis 2007 wlis gadawyvetile-ba, rom 2014 wels olimpiada soWSi Catarebuliyo.

warmodgenili Sexeduleba SesaZloa mwvave iyos da mkvlev rebi saTanadod ver afasebdnen, magram damoukideb-lobis mopovebidan 2008 wlamde regionis ramdenime sxva qveyanas ufro didi mniSvneloba hqonda saqarTvelosa-Tvis, vidre CrdiloeT kavkasias: 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi CrdiloeT kavkasiis mier afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mxar-daWera mniSvnelovani iyo konfliqtebis Sedegebis gansazRv-risaTvis. CeCneTis pirvel omSi ruseTis marcxi saqarTvelos damoukideblobis institucionalizaciaSi daexmara, CeCneTis meore omma qarTuli usafrTxoebis arqiteqturis CamoSla gamoiwvia da sabolood, saTave daudo amerikuli samxedro

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daxmarebis pirvel programas. CeCneTis meore omSi ruse-Tis gamarjvebam CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi gazrdili militari-zacia gamoiwvia da ruseTs, politikuri miznebis misaRwevad, samxedro qmedebebis mada gauZliera. miuxedavad imisa, rom CrdiloeT kavkasia 2008 wlis agvistos omSi CarTulobiT gan-sakuTrebulad ar gamoirCeoda, am regionidan aralegaluri mebrZolebisa da mZarcvelebis raodenoba mainc sakmaod didi iyo.

2008 wels qarTulma politikurma elitam CrdiloeT kavkasiis mniSvneloba gaiazra da Tan, rac aranakleb mniSv-nelovania, ruseTTan urTierTobis normalizebis imedic da-karga. Sesabamisad, CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT axali proaq-tiur politikas win aRaraferi daudgeboda.

axali politika Camoyalibebulia 2012 wlis zafxul-Si miRebul kavkasiis xalxebTan urTierTobis saqarTvelos saxelmwifo koncefciaSi, Tumca misi konkretuli politikis ganxorcieleba 2010 wlidan daiwyo.

2010 wlis martSi, oTxi wlis Semdeg, ruseTi daTanxm-da saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris erTaderTi oficialuri sasazRvro gamSvebi punqtis _ larsis gamSvebi punqtis _ gaxs-nas. 2010 wlis oqtombridan saqarTvelom CrdiloeT kavkasiis respublikebis mcxovreblebisaTvis uvizo mimosvlis reJimi daawesa. 2011 wlis maisSi saqarTvelom pirvelma aRiara Cer-qezebis genocidi. 2010 wlis ianvarSi funqcionireba daiwyo saqarTvelos pirvelma rusulenovanma telearxma PIK _ Tavda-pirvelad internetSi, mogvianebiT ki _ satelitze. Crdilo-kavkasiel xalxebTan saganmanaTleblo, kulturuli da samec-niero gacvlis xelSewyobis mizniT dafuZnda kavkasiis fondi da Cerqezuli kulturis centri. qarTulma universitetebma Crdilokavkasiel studentebs ufaso samagistro programebi SesTavazes. saqarTvelo Crdilokavkasiur diasporebs mesame qveynebSic daukavSirda.

saqarTvelos iniciativebze ruseTis reaqcia mkacri iyo, magram raime konkretuli kontrnabijebi ar gadaudgams.

ris miRwevas cdilobda saqarTvelo? amas mravali axs-na mouZebnes _ omisaTvis SurisZiebidan dawyebuli, CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT saqarTvelos damokidebulebis cvlilebiT damTavrebuli. erTi Teoriis Tanaxmad, zemoT CamoTvlili rbili Zalis iniciativebi emsaxureboda Tbilisis mxridan

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Crdilokavkasiel mebrZolebTan urTierTobis ganviTarebis mcdelobis gadafarvas. es ki, saqarTveloSi ruseTis xelax-ali SeWris SemTxvevaSi, mtris teritoriaze operaciebis Cata-rebis SesaZleblobis qonas isaxavda miznad. ruseTSi popu-laruli kidev erTi Teoriis Tanaxmad ki, saqarTvelo CIA-sa da MI6-is rekrutirebis niadagi xdeboda. sxvebi miiCnevdnen, rom saqarTvelo ruseTs Crdilokavkasielebis „gulebisa da gonebis“ mogebisaTvis ejibreboda.

CrdiloeT kavkasiis xalxebTan urTierTobis saxelmwifo kon-cefcia

CrdiloeT kavkasiis xalxebTan urTierTobis saxelm-wifo koncefcia regionTan mimarTebiT saqarTvelos erTad-erTi politikis dokumentia. miuxedavad imisa, rom 2012 wlis Semdeg arCeulma mTavrobam Sewyvita misi ganxorcieleba, misi arc gadaxedva momxdara da arc alternatiuli politi-ka SemouTavazebiaT. amis sapirispirod, CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT proaqtiuri politikis SewyvetisTvis mTavrobam didi kritika daimsaxura. Sesabamisad, mniSvnelovania am dokumen-tis Seswavla da garkveuli detalebis gaanalizeba. dokumen-tSi yuradReba gamaxvilebulia Semdeg sakiTxebze:

1. adamianuri mimarTuleba

2. adamianis uflebebi, Tavisufali media da samoqalaqo sazogadoeba

3. mecniereba da ganaTleba

4. ekonomika da vaWroba

5. istoriuli simarTlis damkvidrebis mxardaWera

6. tradiciebi, kultura da sporti

7. diasporis urTierTobebi

8. jandacva

adamianuri mimarTuleba. dokumentSi warmodgenilia ori mniSvnelovani SeTavazeba: pirveli _ saqarTvelom kari unda gauRos Crdilokavkasiel vizitiorebs da meore _ vi-naidan saqarTvelo Crdilokavkasiel muslimebsa da maT wmin-

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da adgilebs Sorisaa, saqarTvelom xeli unda Suwyos pili-grimul mogzaurobas sakuTar teritoriaze.

adamianis uflebebi, Tavisufali media da samoqalaqo sazogadoeba. dokumentis mixedviT, saqarTvelo unda daexma-ros Crdilokavkasiel uflebaTa damcvelebs da xidis roli unda Seasrulos saerTaSoriso sazogadoebasTan urTierTo-baSi. aseve, sakuTari resursebiT aamaRlos saerTaSoriso cnobiereba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi adamianis uflebebis dar-Rvevis SemTxvevebTan dakavSirebiT. meore sferoa Crdilo-kavkasieli xalxisaTvis Tavisufal informaciaze (ara krem-lisgan kontrolirebulze) xelmisawvdomobis gazrda, xolo mesame sfero _ orive mxaris samoqalaqo sazogadoebis orga-nizaciebis TanamSromlobis gaZliereba.

mecniereba da ganaTleba. dokumentSi gamoyofilia ori mTavari prioriteti: Crdilokavkasieli axalgazrdebisaTvis ganaTlebis xelmisawvdomobis gazrda (mag., maTTvis saqarT-veloSi swavlis SesaZleblobis micema) da Crdilokavkasi-uri enebis, istoriis, arqeologiisa da sxv. mimarTulebiT Crdilokavkasiel mecnierebTan TanamSromloba.

ekonomika da vaWroba. saqarTvelom kari unda gauRos investiciebs CrdiloeT kavkasiidan. saqarTvelom unda Ses-Tavazos TanamSromloba turizmSi da Tavisi servisebi, ro-gorc savaWro da lojistikurma keram.

istoriuli simarTlis damyareba. rogorc caristuli ruseTis, ise komunistebis mmarTvelobis periodSi, Crdilo-kavkasieli xalxi _ Cerqezebi, inguSebi, CeCnebi da sxvebi _ saSineli usamarTlobis msxverplni iyvnen. es yovelive saTa-nadod unda iqnes Seswavlili da wardgenili saerTaSoriso sazogadoebisaTvis.

tradiciebi, kultura da sporti. am sferoebSi TanamS-romlobis xelSewyoba.

diasporuli urTierTobebi. saqarTvelo Crdiloka-vkasiur diasporebTan urTierTobas mesame qveynebSic daam-yarebs da amasTan, xels Seuwyobs qarTuli da Crdilokavka-siuri diasporebis kavSirebis ganviTarebas.

jandacva. saqarTvelo miesalmeba da xels Seuwyobs Crdilokavkasiel vizitiorebs, romlebic saqarTvelos jan-dacvis mizniT stumroben.

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miuxedavad imisa, rom zemoT CamoTvlili zogi punqti SesaZloa propagandistulad an realur politikad gardaqm-nisaTvis zedmetad zogadad JRerdes, koncefciis didi nawili samuSao dokumentia. saqarTveloSi Crdilokavkasielebis vizitebi sagrZnoblad gaizarda. garda amisa, saqarTvelo piligrimebisaTvis satranzito teritoriadac gamoiyeneba. 2010-2012 wlebSi muSaobda qarTuli rusulenovani telearxi, gaxSirda saganmanaTleblo da samecniero gacvlebi, gaizar-da Crdilokavkasieli mcire mewarmeebis ricxvi, romlebsac biznesi saqarTveloSi aqvT, saqarTvelom aRiara CerqezTa genocidi da damyarda urTierTobebi CrdiloeT kavkasiur diasporebTan.

urTierTobebi CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan 2012 wlis Semdeg

2012 wlis oqtomberSi saakaSvilis mTavroba arCevneb-Si damarcxda da is koalicia „qarTulma ocnebam“ Caanacvla, romelsac miliarderi biZina ivaniSvili meTaurobs. axalma mTavrobam ganacxada, rom misi sagareo politikis mTavar prioritets ruseTTan urTierTobis normalizeba warmoad-genda. erT-erTi pirveli, rac prioritetebis cvlilebisgan dazaralda, CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT saqarTvelos poli-tika iyo. maSinve daixura telearxi PIK. Sewyda saganmanaTle-blo programebi CrdilokavkasielebisaTvis da ormxrivi seminarebisa da konferenciebis mTavrobisagan mxardaWera. zogadad, axalma mTavrobam gadawyvita, rom ruseTTan urTi-erTobebi imdenad mniSvnelovani iyo, rom CrdiloeT kavka-siis mimarT proaqtiuri politika mas damatebiT wnexis qveS moaqcevda. „qarTulma ocnebam“ gadawyvita, rom Crdilokav-kasielebs iseve moeqces, rogorc ruseTis sxva moqalaqeebs. usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuli gamowvevebidan gamomdinare _ xandaxan uaresadac ki.

dadgenilia, rom 2014 wels, soWis olimpiadis msvle-lobisas, saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis samsaxurebi TavianT rus kolegebTan TanamSromlobdnen da saqarTvelos sazRv-rebTan Crdilokavkasielebis (gansakuTrebiT axalgazrda mamakacebis) gadaadgilebas zRudavdnen. arsebuli informa-ciiT, sul mcire, or SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis samsaxurebma ruseTs araoficialurad gadasces Crdilokav-

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kasieli ltolvilebi. 2012 wlidan ISIS-is saxiT saqarTvelos usafrTxoebas axali safrTxe daemuqra, ramac saqarTvelos xelisufleba aiZula sazRvrebze damatebiTi zomebi mieRo.

sainteresoa, rom saqarTvelos damoukideblobis 25-wliani periodze dakvirvebisas erTi mniSvnelovani faqti ikveTeba: saqarTvelos, rogorc damoukidebel saxelmwifos, proaqtiuri politika an ruseTis mimarT aqvs, an Crdilo-eT kavkasiis. jerjerobiT ver moxerxda, rom orives mimarT erTdroulad hqondes.

bevri davobs, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT iseTi politikis qonas, romelic ruseTis mimarT arsebuli poli-tikisgan gansxvavdeba, azri ar aqvs. vinaidan es an SueZlebe-lia, an Zirs gamouTxris bevrad ufro mniSvnelovan politi-kas. am or kiTxvaze pasuxis povna warmatebuli strategiis gasaRebia: pirvel rigSi, CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT saqarT-velos grZelvadiani, yovlismomcveli da Tanmimdevruli politika sWirdeba, romelic damokidebuli ar iqneba ruseT-Tan urTierTobaze (Tumca, Crdilokavkasiuri politikis ru-seTis politikisgan sruli izolireba yovelTvis SeuZlebe-li iqneba) da meore _ am politikas praqtikuli Sedegebi unda hqondes rogorc saqarTveloSi, ise CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi.

konturebi momavali strategiisaTvis

ZiriTadi daSvebebi

strategiis Camosayalibeblad ramdenime mTavari daS-vebis SemuSavebaa saWiro. cxadia, Tu daSvebebi araswori aR-moCndeba, maSin martivad SesaZlebelia, rom mTeli strategia araswori an ararelevanturi iyos. aseve, CrdiloeT kavkasia-sTan dakavSirebuli nebismieri strategia unda iTvaliswineb-des im gansxvavebebs, romlebic sxvadasxva respublikas So-ris arsebobs (saqarTvelos mimarT arsebuli gansxvavebuli damokidebulebebisa da urTierTobebis CaTvliT), Tumca es ufro detaluri kvlevis sagania.

ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobebi: ufro savarau-doa, rom ZiriTadad ucvleli darCeba. ruseTis mxridan afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebam dauZleveli dabr-koleba Seuqmna urTierTobebis normalizacias. rogorc ze-

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moT aRiniSna, „qarTuli ocnebis“ xelisufleba gacxadebuli mizniT movida, romelic urTierTobebis gaumjobesebas gu-lisxmobda. Tumca maleve mixvda, rom vaWrobis aRdgenisa da sxva lojistikuri sakiTxebis gadawyvetis miRma, dRis wes-rigSi ar arsebobs iseTi sakiTxebi, romlebzec mxareebi rea-lur progress miaRweven. ruseTis mTavroba saqarTvelosTan urTierTobas ormxriv problemad ar aRiqvams da dasavleT-Tan konfrontaciis linzidan uyurebs. Sesabamisad, saqarT-velos mimarT nebismieri kompromisi dasavleTTan daTmobad ganixileba (amis saukeTeso magaliTia e.w. „mcocavi aneqsia“). saqarTvelos sazogadoebrivi ganwyoba Zlierad prodasavlu-ria (NDI-is 2018 wlis ivlisis sazogadoebrivi azris kvlevis Tanaxmad, evrokavSirSi gawevrianebas mxars saqarTvelos mo-saxleobis 80%-ze meti uWers) da mTavrobisgan zedmetad Sem-rigeblur nabijebs ar Seegueba. amrigad, mcire gaumjobese-bebi SesaZlebelia, magram mniSvnelovnad dadebiTi garRveva Zneli warmosadgenia. aseve Zneli warmosadgenia saqarTvelos mTavrobaSi iseTi prorusuli Zalis mosvla, romelic pro-dasavlur kurss an okupirebul teritoriebs daTmobs.

ruseTi da CrdiloeT kavkasia: imis prognozireba, Tu ra SeiZleba moxdes ruseTSi, gansakuTrebiT rTulia da, ra Tqma unda, winamdebare naSromis farglebs scilde-ba. rasakvir velia, momavalSi, garkveulwilad mosalodnelia mkveTri cvlilebebi. Tumca, es strategia Semdeg daSvebebs efuZneba: ruseTis marTvas agrZelebs putini an vinme msgav-si. grZeldeba dasavleTTan konfrontacia. pirdapir oms er-idebian, magram SesaZlebelia arapirdapiri omebi. saerTaSor-iso sanqciebisa da Sida problemebis, rogoricaa korufcia, araswori menejmentisa da araefeqturi saxelmwifo-kapital-izmis gamo, ruseTis ekonomikis stagnacia grZeldeba. ruse-Ti ganagrZobs CrdiloeT kavkasiis „rkinis muStiT“ marT-vas. centridan Semcirebuli alokaciis gamo, adgilobrivi elitebi biznesSesaZleblobebs sxvagan eZeben. adgilobrivi elitebi Tavs naklebad usafrTxod grZnoben. grZeldeba Za-ladoba, Tumca ufro mcire masStabiT. mebrZolebi, romle-bic adre ISIS-s SeuerTdnen, ruseTSi rTulad brundebian da amboxs ganaaxleben. eTnikuri rusebis wili Crdilokavkasiur respublikebSi ufro mcirdeba.

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strategiis miznebi

ra unda iyos saqarTvelos mizani CrdiloeT kavkasias-Tan mimarTebiT? ra sargebeli SeiZleba miiRos saqarTvelom CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan urTierTobiT?

CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan dakavSirebuli nebismieri strategia, pirvel rigSi, ekonomikur sargebels unda efuZne-bodes. istoriuli kavSirebi, kulturuli msgavsebebi da strategiuli ganxilvebi mniSvnelovania, magram Tu strate-gia komerciul mogebaze ar aris dafuZnebuli, is araefeq-turi da aramdgradi iqneba.

vardebis revoluciis Semdeg saqarTvelo regionSi yvelaze liberalur ekonomikad Camoyalibda, msoflio ban-kis biznesis keTebis indeqsSi ukanaskneli 100 saxelmwifodan saukeTeso aTeulSi dawinaurda. martivia ara mxolod bi-znesis dawyeba da marTva, aramed am saqmianobisaTvis saWiro dokumentebis miReba ucxoelebisTvisac sakmaod advilia. SesaZloa es arc ise mniSvnelovani iyos didi dasavluri kor-poraciebisaTvis, magram gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania mcire da saSualo regionuli biznesisTvis. saqarTvelom aseulobiT milioni dolaris investiciebi miiRo somxeTidan da azerbai-janidan. bolo dros ki, maTi odenoba mzardia iranidan da ruseTidan. investorebi arian mcire da saSualo zomis bi-znesebi, romlebic sakuTar qveynebSi korufciam daRala, visi urTierTobac mTavrobebTan gauaresda da SiSoben, rom es maT biznesze aisaxeba, maRali Tanamdebobis pirebi, romle-bic zustad ver aCenen TavianTi simdidris warmoSobas, di-sidentebi, romlebic sacxovreblad saqarTveloSi gadmodi-an da axali cxovrebis dawyeba surT, iranelebi da rusebi, romlebsac saerTaSoriso sanqciebis Sedegebi aSinebT da sxv. ZiriTadad, saqarTvelo regionSi moiazreba mcire kunZulad, sadac SesaZlebelia mcire da saSualo zomis biznesis keTeba korufciis, mTavrobis Carevis an organizebuli danaSaulis SiSis gareSe.

aranakleb mniSvnelovania turizmi. 3.7 mln. mosaxleo-bis mqone saqarTvelom gasul wels 7.5 mln.-ze meti vizitiori miiRo da es ricxvi Zalian swrafad izrdeba. turis tebis 81% saqarTveloSi im qveynebidan modis, romlebTanac saxmeleTo sazRvars iziarebs (ruseTi, TurqeTi, somxeTi da azerbaijani).

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saqarTvelo regionul savaWro habad Camoyalibda. dabali gadasaxadebisa da ekonomikur centrebTan (evroka-vSiri, CineTi, ruseTi da TurqeTi) Tavisufali savaWro Se-Tanxmebis gamo, TavianTi SinameurneobebisaTvis sxvadasxva nivTebis, avtomobilebisa da maTi nawilebis, tansacmlis da sxv. sayidlad saqarTvelos mezobeli qveynebidan yovelwli-urad milionobiT momxmarebeli da mcire movaWre stumrobs.

amasTan, saqarTvelo daniSnulebis adgili xdeba sa-medicino turizmisTvis, saerTaSoriso seminarebisa da kon-ferenciebisTvis, savaWro bazrobebisTvis da a.S.

rogorc zeviT aRiniSna, saerTaSoriso vizitorTa 81% mezobeli qveynebidanaa. kidev ufro mniSvnelovania, rom 81%-is umravlesoba saavtomobilo gadaadgilebis dis-tanciidan modis. saqarTvelos mxridan ukiduresad ugunuri qmedeba iqneba, Tuki CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi Tavs aqtiurad ar warmoaCens.

analogiurad, Crdilokavkasielebs saqarTvelosTan saqmiani urTierTobis interesi gaezrdebaT. adgilobrivi elitebi, visi stabilurobac garantirebuli ar aris, saxlSi sarisko situaciis Seqmnis SemTxvevaSi, moindomeben hqon-deT „sadazRvevo polisebi“. disidentebs endomebaT hqon-deT iseTi adgili, sadac safrTxis warmoSobis SemTxvevaSi gadafrindebodnen. maT, vinc warmatebuli biznesi aawyes, SesaZloa, saqarTveloSi gafarToeba undodeT, raTa daculi iyvnen saerTaSoriso sanqciebis saziano efeqtebisgan an ru-seTis ekonomikis hipoTeturi CamoSlisgan.

garda ekonomikuri interesebisa, CrdiloeT kavkasia saqarTvelosTvis mniSvnelovania afxazeTisa da samxreT ose-Tis konfliqtebis WrilSic. CrdiloeT oseTi samxreT oseT-Tan xidad SeiZleba moviazroT, gansakuTrebiT imis gaTval-iswinebiT, rom rusebma saqarTvelosa da samxreT oseTs Soris mavTulxlarTebis galavani aaSenes. igive roli SeuZliaT iTamaSon Cerqezebs saqarTvelo-afxazeTis urTierTobebSi.

usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT, saqarTvelo, mis mimarT gaCenili Crdilokavkasiuri biznesinteresebis gamo, naklebad gaxdeba Crdilokavkasieli eqstremistebis samizne.

saqarTveloSi Crdilokavkasieli investorebis, movaW-reebis da turistebis mosazidad saWiroa, rogorc adre aRin-iSna, qveyanam regionSi sakuTari Tavis popularizebas Seuw-

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yos xeli. Sesabamisad, aucilebelia sicocxlisunarianoba daubrundes Zveli strategiis iseT nawilebs, rogorebicaa: 1. adamianuri mimarTuleba, 2. ganaTleba da mecniereba, 3. ekonomika da vaWroba, 4. kultura, sporti da tradiciebi da 5. diasporis urTierTobebi.

praqtikuri TvalsazrisiT es niSnavs, rom: ar unda arsebobdes raRac gansakuTrebuli SezRudva Crdilokav-kasielebisaTvis saxelmwifo sazRvarze an saqarTvelos sam-Tavrobo institutebSi, saqarTvelo gavliT hajis xelSewyo-ba, saganmanaTleblo da samecniero gacvlis ganaxleba, erTob livi sportuli da kulturuli aqtivobebis dafinan-sebis gagrZeleba da Crdilokavkasiur diasporasTan urTier-Tobebis Seneba, metwilad _ biznesisa da ekonomikuri kuTxiT.

garda amisa, gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda gamaxvil-des saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi Crdilokavkasielebis dacvaze. es niSnavs: araoficialur eqstradiciebze uaris Tqmas (ofi-cialuri eqstradiciebi mxolod gamonaklis SemTxvevaSi), sakuTrebis dacvis specialur garantiebs da saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi nebismieri Crdilokavkasielis dacvas Crdilo-eT kavkasiis regionSi mcxovrebi Tavisi naTesavis Seviwroe-bisagan. samTavrobo uwyebebi ar unda eweodnen Crdiloka-vkasielebis diskriminacias, rac amJamad xSiria.

miuxedavad imisa, rom politikuri propaganda saWiro ar aris, saqarTvelom aqtiurad unda gaasajaroos rogorc Tavisi politika, ise warmatebuli individualuri qeisebi. amas sWirdeba rusulenovani mediasaSualeba _ umjobesia, Tu es internetresursi iqneba.

saqarTvelom unda aCvenos gansakuTrebuli pativis-cema islamisa da muslimebis mimarT. es mniSvnelovania ara mxolod Crdilokavkasiuri politikis TvalsazrisiT, aramed Sida integraciisa da stabilurobisTvisac.

rogori politikac ar unda hqondes saqarTvelos ru-seTTan mimarTebiT (rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi naklebad savaraudoa), garkveviT unda dafiq-sirdes, rom politika CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan mimarTebiT isev ar gaxdeba vaWrobis sagani da Crdlokavkasielebs saqarT-veloSi garantirebuli eqnebaT usafrTxoeba da sakuTreba.

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rasakvirvelia, usafrTxoeba CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan urTierTobaSi mniSvnelovan aspeqtad darCeba, Tumca es ar unda iyos erTaderTi prioriteti.

daskvna

saqarTvelos axali strategia CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT ormxriv komerciul sargebels unda efuZnebodes. saqarTvelom aqtiurad unda warmoaCinos sakuTari Tavi, ro-gorc usafrTxo da momgebiani adgili biznesis sakeTeblad. regionSi sakuTari imijis gasaumjobeseblad unda gaagrZelos an, ubralod, aRadginos kulturuli, saganmanaTleblo da samecniero kavSirebi.

saqarTvelom Tavisi strategia CrdiloeT kavkasi-is mimarT unda gamoacalkevos ruseTis mimarT arsebuli strategiisgan. mniSvenlovania qveyanas regionis mimarT grZelvadiani da Tanmimdevruli politika hqondes.

usafrTxoeba ar unda iyos CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan urTierTobebis erTaderTi prioriteti.