1 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

Research Activities in the Climate Services at MeteoSwiss

Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Christof AppenzellerMichael Begert, Paul Della-Marta, Christoph Frei, Heike Kunz, Mark Liniger, Simon

Scherrer, Andreas Weigel, Christian Wüthrich

www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch

3 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 10. August 2007Quelle: MeteoSchweiz

Climate Services products …..

4 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

TasksTasksClimate Services MeteoSwissClimate Services MeteoSwiss

To provide reliable weather and climate data and analyses productsTo provide reliable weather and climate data and analyses productsfor the public, government, politics and business, for the public, government, politics and business,

yesterday, today and tomorrow yesterday, today and tomorrow

5 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Thom

as Konzelm

ann

Claudine N

aguel

Christian Lukasczyk

Mark Liniger

Mischa C

roci-Maspoli

Gérard D

ecrouyF

rank Lumpert

Patrick B

ütler

Markus F

ischer

Walter E

ckert

Eliane Jenzer

Marc M

usa

Gergely R

igo

Daniel W

olf

Christa Z

imm

ermann

Martina C

aseri

Bruno D

ürr

Christoph F

rei

Sophie F

ukutome

Reto S

töckli

Andreas W

eigel

Paul D

ella-Marta

Reinhard S

chiemann

Michael B

egert

Thom

as Schlegel

Stephan B

ader

Christine F

üllemann

Peter Z

binden

Jacqueline Pilloud

Heike K

unz

Christof A

ppenzeller

KDdm KDds KDka KDki

Sandy U

bl

Deborah v G

eijtenbeek

Verena F

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Sim

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Christian W

üthrich

Philipp G

latt

6 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

• Temperature (mean, min, max)• Precipitation• Sunshine duration• Air pressure (partly)

Project DigiHom Digitalisation and homogenisation of long term climate series in Switzerland

Swiss National Basic Climatological Network(Swiss NBCN)

Annual temperature of Basel 1755-2007

Begert et al., 2005 HOMOGENEOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SERIES OF SWITZERLAND FROM 1864 TO 2000, Int. J. Climatol. 25: 65–80Begert 2009, to appear.

7 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

EU FP6 ENSEMBPLES WP 5.1:Development of a daily high-resolution gridded observational dataset for Europe

precipitation 1960-2004 Tmin 1960-2004

Contribution of MeteoSwiss: automated detectionprocedure for discontinuities in large data sets

number of inhomogeneities detected: 0(), 1(), 3(), 4(), undefined ()

Begert, M., E. Zenklusen, C. Häberli, C. Appenzeller, L. Klok, 2008, to appear in Met. Zeitschrift.

8 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Re-Analysis ERA40 & observationsExample Ozone over Arosa

Kunz, H., S. Scherrer, C. Appenzeller and M. Liniger, 2007: The evolution of ERA-40 surface temperatures and total ozone compared to observed Swiss time series, Meteorol. Z., DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0183

Differences total ozone ERA-40 & homogenized observations over Arosa

9 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

New long snow series in the Alpes

Digitising of new snow sum (and snow depth) series

Reconstruction of days with snow pack

via snow depth reconstruction (daily temperature/precipitation)

Sils Maria 1864 – 2005 (1798 m asl)

cm/y

rda

ys/y

r

Sils Maria 1864 – 2005 (1798 m asl)

new snow sum

days with snow pack (>1cm)

Davos 1999

Savognin 1990

Wüthrich C, et al., 2010: in preparation.Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, and M. Laternser, 2004: Trends in Swiss Alpine snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13215, doi:10.1029/2004GL020255.

10 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Gridding in complex topographyCOST733 Weather classification

1929 Stations (AUT, CH, DL)

Heavy Precipitation event in the Alps August 2005

Frei, C, and C. Schär, 1998, A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations., Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873-900.Frei, C, et al, 2006: Starkniederschlagsereignis August 2005, Arbeitsbericht MeteoSchweiz Nr. 211, ISSN: 1422-1381

Christop Frei and Reinhard Schieman

11 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

www.meteoswiss.ch climate seasonal outlook

Monthly/seasonal climate outlooks

12 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

MeteoSwiss research within National Centre for Competence in Research – Climate

NCCR I at MetCH: 2001-05 NCCR II at MetCH: 2005-09

See www.meteoswiss.ch Research Projects NCCR-Climate II

14 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Skill of today seasonal forecast system (ECMWF Sys 3) 2m temperature

Spring Summer

Autumn Winter

bad good1-1 0

RPSSd

Can discriminate in 55-60% of the cases

20 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Statistical post-processing

Muotathaler

Method 1: multi-model approach(ECMWF, UK MetOffice, Météo France)

Muotathaler

Weigel, A., M. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2008: Can multi-model combination really enhance prediction skill of ensemble forecasts ?, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 241–260 (2008) DOI: 10.1002/qj.210Weigel, A., M. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2009: Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multi-models?, in preparation.

Method 2: Climate conserving recalibration (inflation) of single models

27 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

raw

Average RPSS

Recalibration versus multi-models

High predictability inflated multi

E: ECMWFU: UK Met OfficeC: Météo France

Example:1 month lead JJA 2m temperature forecasts

28 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

raw

Average RPSS

Recalibration versus multi-models

Low predictability inflated multi

E: ECMWFU: UK Met OfficeC: Météo France

29 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Day 5-11 Day 12-18 Day 19-25 Day 26-32

Monthly forecasts

warmer than normal

cooler than normal

normal

VarEPS: 32-day EPS (calculated once per week)

30 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.10

-0.1

-0.2

Monthly temperature forecast skill

Day 5-11 Day 12-18

Results: annual mean RPSSD for week 1, 2, and 3 monthly forecast.

Day 19-25

…depends on region, season, lead-time

(Weigel et al. 2008a, MWR, accepted)

32 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

I wish you a nice stay in Zürich I wish you a nice stay in Zürich