AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT February 2, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. AQAP controls the populated centers along the main road from Aden to al Mukalla, re-establishing itself in the territory it held in 2011 and 2012, and consolidating control in al Mukalla.

2. ISIS expanded along the central Libyan coastline and is preparing for airstrikes. Western nations have been calling for direct action operations targeting ISIS leadership and command nodes.

3. AQIM is threatening the life of a Swiss hostage if its demands for the release of AQIM operatives by the Malian government is not met.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda remains a major threat to U.S. national security. The competition with ISIS has driven al Qaeda groups to consolidate behind the al Qaeda name. Libya’s Ansar al Sharia, for example, the al Qaeda-linked group behind the 2012 Benghazi attacks, now regularly releases al Qaeda propaganda and guidance to its followers. Jabhat al Nusra, al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, steadfastly refuses to denounce its relationship with al Qaeda, causing some friction with local Syrian opposition groups.

The Long War Journal reported that it is highly likely a senior al Qaeda commander, the Egyptian Abu Dujana al Basha, was killed in August 2014 based on reports coming from al Qaeda-linked individuals at the end of 2015 and early 2016. Al Qaeda does not always eulogize its operational commanders.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns as al Qaeda leadership attempts to counter ISIS messaging.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda AssociatesThe leadership of the fractious Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) appears to be headed toward a major split, following the Bacha Khan University attacks, according to reports. Umar Mansoor, who was the mastermind behind the attack, is reportedly upset at the TTP core’s decision to condemn the attack. This has led to the dissolving of a five-member joint committee to unite TTP factions.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces are likely to increase security in the country, following the recent large-scale attacks.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Saudi-led coalition is responding to criticism levied against it in a UN report that cited violations of humanitarian law on both sides of Yemen’s conflict. Saudi Arabia released the number of its own citizens killed in border attacks, likely to mitigate the criticism. The coalition also accepted responsibility for the October bombing of a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Sa’ada and promised an independent investigation into claims of civilian casualties.

Outlook: Humanitarian concerns will frame but will not shape the conflict, absent significant pressure from the UK or U.S.

SecurityHeightened al Houthi and coalition-backed movements set the conditions for an escalation in hostilities. Al Houthi incursions into Saudi Arabia have increased. Al Houthi propaganda highlighted operations in Jebel al Doud and al Raboah, which al Houthis claim to have captured. Meanwhile, coalition-backed forces deployed reinforcements to key fronts, including Taiz, al Jawf, and Hajjah.

Outlook: The coalition will probably launch a new phase of operations against al Houthi-Saleh forces in the near term.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP controls the major populated centers along the road from Aden to al Mukalla. AQAP seized Azzan, an economic hub in central Shabwah governorate, reconstituting the territory it held in 2011-2012. The group executed a second individual by stoning in al Mukalla, notably without its previous restriction on media coverage.ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan launched two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SBVIED) attacks in Aden against Yemeni government targets, indicating a likely resurgence in capabilities, possibly supported by new foreign fighters.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to consolidate control over southern Yemen’s primary east-west corridor.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN1) 01 FEB: AQAP seized Azzan, Shabwah.2) 28 JAN: ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan detonated a VBIED outside Aden’s presidential palace.3) 01 FEB: AQAP stoned a man for adultery in al Mukalla.4) 28-29 JAN: Al Houthi-Saleh forces clashed with Saudi border security near Jebel al Doud, Jazan province.5) 26 JAN: Islamist militants blew up the home of a woman for “deviancy.”

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe agreement on a universal electoral model by the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and federal states may prevent further political stability for the near term, though factions will likely begin to position themselves in order to improve their chances of gaining political power. Calls from both Somali and Kenyan officials for investigations into the January 15 el Adde base attack as each side blames the other are placing strains on cooperation between the Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) and Somali National Army (SNA).

Outlook: Continued tensions between KDF and SNA forces will likely hamper effective cooperation between the two militaries.

SecurityKenya deployed specialized forces to Lamu County following an increase in al Shabaab attacks in the area. SNA and Ethiopian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces conducted major security sweeps and arrested suspected al Shabaab members in El Bur area, Galgudud region, Somalia. Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) raided houses in Mogadishu, dismantling a six-member terror cell suspected of planning attacks in the capital.

Outlook: KDF and SNA forces are both likely to deploy more security personnel to areas with high al Shabaab activity.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab is increasing its activity in Kenya’s southern Lamu County, attacking both civilian and military targets. Additionally, the group has been highly active in Somalia’s southern Lower Shabelle region, where it launched an unsuccessful attack on SNA forces stationed in Qoryooley, a town it briefly captured a month prior. The group is reportedly massing fighters on the outskirts of the Lower Shabelle region’s Barawe town, possibly to expand its zone of control in the region.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to attack civilian and military targets in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle Region and Kenya’s Lamu County, exploiting the redeployment of AMISOM forces from exposed positions after the el Adde attack.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

1) 26-29 JAN: Al Shabaab conducted an IED attack on Kenyan police, prompting the deployment of bomb squads in Lamu County.2) 01 FEB: Al Shabaab executed civilians in Pandangou, Lamu County.3) 29 JAN: NISA arrests suspected al Shabaab militants in Mogadishu. 4) 26 JAN - 01 FEB: SNA and AMISOM forces conducted clearing operations in El Bur, Galgudud region.

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ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe newly formed Government of National Accord (GNA) still does not have a cabinet and will likely offer a new proposed list of ministers in the coming days. GNA prime minister-designate Fayez al Sarraj met with House of Representatives (HoR)-linked General Khalifa Haftar, who was excluded from the previous cabinet list. The appearance of closeness between GNA leaders and the HoR may undermine efforts to garner support from the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC).

Outlook: Conflicts of interest between the HoR and GNC will continue to frustrate the process of Libyan political reconciliation.

SecurityThe U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Italy are preparing to launch airstrikes and possibly special operations targeting ISIS in Libya. Libyan National Army (LNA) forces continue to clash with militant groups, including ISIS and al Qaeda-linked Ansar al Sharia, in Benghazi. LNA-linked forces also claimed to seize large portions of Ajdabiya city from Islamist militants.

Outlook: Western powers will probably conduct operations targeting ISIS, especially its base in Sirte, but these air and special operations campaigns are unlikely to counter other Salafi-jihadi actors in Libya, including Ansar al Sharia.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS is continuing to expand its territorial control along the central Libyan coast. The group seized al Buerat village, located west of Sirte, and is likely responsible for attacks on oil infrastructure east of Sirte. ISIS is also preparing for airstrikes on its stronghold in Sirte. The group moved family members and weapons caches out of harms way while preventing civilians from leaving the city, likely to deter airstrikes on key sites.

Outlook: ISIS will continue efforts to expand from its stronghold in Sirte to the east and west, including further attacks on key infrastructure in Libya’s oil crescent.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA1) 01 FEB: ISIS militants seized al Buerat.2) 30 JAN: LNA forces seized large parts of Ajdabiya.3) 27-31 JAN: ISIS prepared for airstrikes in Sirte.4) 26 JAN-01 FEB: The LNA clashed with Islamist militants in Benghazi, including ISIS and Ansar al Sharia.

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ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM AQIM’s Sahara division released a proof-of-life video of kidnapped Swiss missionary Beatrice Stockly. The group demanded the release of fighters imprisoned in Bamako, Mali, as well as Ahmad al Mahdi al Faqi, currently held by the International Criminal Court, for Stockly’s release. AQIM kidnapped Stockly previously in 2012 and vowed to kill her if they captured her again after her release.

Outlook: AQIM is likely pursuing a prisoner exchange similar to a December 2014 exchange of a French hostage for seven militant fighters.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Uqba Ibn Nafa’a has gone to ground as Tunisian security forces increased counterterrorism measures following the past week’s civil unrest and the growing threat of militant spillover from Libya. Mass demonstrations over unemployment threatened Tunisian stability and raised concerns for Salafi-jihadi activity. Tunisian forces dismantled several suspected terror cells in Kairouan and killed five suspected terrorists in Beni Zaltan, Gabes province, during combing operations. Tunisia also increased security on the Tunisian-Libyan border.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will likely remain quiet until security operations return to normal levels.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Militants targeted Malian security forces in northern Mali. Al Murabitoun, an AQIM-linked group, attacked a Malian army convoy near Gao, northeastern Mali. Militants attacked a Malian army vehicle on the same day at a checkpoint near Timbuktu, provoking the soldiers to lash out against civilians. It is possible that these attacks were coordinated to garner greater attention.

Outlook: Al Murabitoun and other AQIM-linked groups will continue attacks on security forces in Mali to destabilize the country and disrupt the implementation of the peace agreement.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

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1) 27 JAN: Tunisian forces dismantled a six-member terror cell with ties to Libya and Syria in Kairouan. 2) 29 JAN: Algerian forces killed four suspected AQIM-linked terrorists in Ouled Hmida.3) 29 JAN: ISIS killed two Algerian soldiers and wounded four others in an IED explosion in Skikda .4) 01 FEB: Tunisian forces killed five suspected terrorists in an operation near Beni Zaltan, southern Gabes province.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA

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1) 26 JAN: Security forces arrested a suspected terrorist in Gwolu, northwestern Ghana. 2) 28 JAN: Armed men attack a Malian army vehicle near Timbuktu, northern Mali.3) 28 JAN: Al Murabitoun militants ambush army convoy near Gao, northwestern Mali.

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ACRONYMSAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569